Poor-Sell-Oh

[Edgy MD]

I think it's pretty good bet to count Porky+Wacha in the rotation, if that's how it shakes out, as an upgrade over Jason Vargas.

[kcmets]

I have to go read Barley Prose because if Ceets is thinking division win/making

playoffs I need to be drinking what he be drinkin'.

[Ceetar]

Plenty of offseason left. Things still to be done. But yeah, it'd be a not-shocking result.



hell, Fangraphs depth charts (on the right) has the Mets with the most fWAR in the NL East right now. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I think it's pretty good bet to count Porky+Wacha in the rotation, if that's how it shakes out, as an upgrade over Jason Vargas.

Vargas:

IP: 149.2

ERA: 4.51

FIP: 4.76

WHIP: 1.363



Wacha:

IP: 126.2

ERA: 4.76

FIP: 5.61

WHIP: 1.563



Porcello:

IP: 174.1

ERA: 5.52

FIP: 4.76

WHIP: 1.394



Is it a good bet? Vargas outpitched both in 2019. Wacha with his terrible WHIP wasn't close. Porcello's peripherals were similar to Vargas, but his ERA was much higher. I guess that could be bad luck?



Both are young, so they have that going for them, but Wacha has a recurring shoulder injury and is trending downward, so I don't know if I agree with you there. Porcello is more up and down doing that Saberhagen thing. I read that his advanced stats were bad (hard contact rate, spin rate etc). But I guess that could be from the funky ball last year.



Point is, both guys were worse than Vargas 2019. And that's total 2019, not NYM Vargas. It's a stupidly low bar to clear, and I'm not sure that either guy does it.

[Ceetar]

Steamer thinks so. 0.8 for Vargas, 1.1 for Wacha, 1.8 for Porcello. fWAR.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Ceetar post_id=28303 time=1576180018 user_id=102]
Steamer thinks so. 0.8 for Vargas, 1.1 for Wacha, 1.8 for Porcello. fWAR.

[Centerfield]

=Ceetar post_id=28303 time=1576180018 user_id=102]
Steamer thinks so. 0.8 for Vargas, 1.1 for Wacha, 1.8 for Porcello. fWAR.

[Edgy MD]

=Centerfield post_id=28301 time=1576179645 user_id=65]Point is, both guys were worse than Vargas 2019. And that's total 2019, not NYM Vargas. It's a stupidly low bar to clear, and I'm not sure that either guy does it.

[Ceetar]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=28304 time=1576180345 user_id=68]
=Ceetar post_id=28303 time=1576180018 user_id=102]
Steamer thinks so. 0.8 for Vargas, 1.1 for Wacha, 1.8 for Porcello. fWAR.

[Centerfield]

Come on guys.



The 2020 projections for Vargas are relevant if I am advocating to bring back Vargas. If I said



"Wacha is terrible. I would have spent that money on Vargas".



Then you use this argument.



That's not what I said. I said, "I'm not sure he's an upgrade over Vargas". Then you look at what Vargas did for us in 2019. 1.6 for us, 1.2 overall. Are these guys likely to eclipse that? Maybe. Is this a stupid low bar to be asking in the first place? Absolutely.

[Ceetar]

you're underselling league average. hell, better than that. Vargas had a 4.30 ERA on the season, that's 46th of 96 starters with a minimum of 40IP. Jason Vargas' xFIP Was pretty nasty though. There are so many moving factors, I don't even know. Vargas was not good, but put up some results. These guys, 1-6, all likely clear that bar. It's a smoother curve. The Mets took some off the top to patch up the bottom. The whole rotation might be slightly worse, but maybe the corral of 13+ pitchers as a whole is better.

[Vic Sage]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Vic Sage wrote: Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: OK for a flyer I guess. a flyer shouldn't cost $10m. Who cares. It's still a low-risk flyer as I see it

A "flyer" is a guy you invite to ST on a minor league deal or incentive-laden contract (like Wacha got). Its a guy who, if he doesn't perform, you can just cut him with minimal financial repercussions. I don't think Porcello at $10m guaranteed is a low-risk signing, because that's $10m less that BVW has to spend on the pen and, at that price, he's now penciled in as our 5th starter going into ST. If he sucks, we're still going to be stuck with him, just like we are with Familia at that price. They're not going to eat the contract; it would give the Pons indigestion.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

It's interesting though isn;t it that the narrative till this morning was that Wacha Wacha was the 5th starter. maybe they are considering a trade of Syndy or Matz.



I'd totally consider unloading Matz, I do all the time though.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, Wacha fell for the freshman recruiting trick. One day, it's all "The program really thinks highly of you. One of our key starters has graduated, and everybody is agreed that you'll fit right into the system."



And the very next day they recruit somebody better than you at the same position and you get ready to buy some splinter cream because you ain't getting off the bench.

[Vic Sage]

and because he's only guaranteed $3m.

[nymr83]

better than a broken record That's what you are. I'm waiting for your post where Porcello's gonna win 25 games and if it's the Mets, it has to be good. It's the Mets who are the broken record. It's what they do. Every season. Pick up defects like Wacha and Porcello when Cole, Strasburg and Wheeler were available, then count on people like you to cover for them with contorted analysis. There's a reason why they have two first place finishes in 31 seasons. That's no accident or bad luck. And if it seems like I'm talking about it again, that's only because the owners just did it again.

Of course if the Mets wanted to be a REAL big market team they'd sign Cole. Then they'd go sign a guy like Wacha or Porcello for depth anyway, because they are good depth signings, just not a good "Plan A"

[Centerfield]

Vic Sage wrote: and because he's only guaranteed $3m.

Wacha's contract isn't without its own risks. If the Wilpons count that as $10M against the tax and don't spend that elsewhere, that's money that's doing nothing that could have been used on the pen.



Alternatively, if they don't leave the wiggle room, I guess it's possible that his incentives will kick us over the tax.



Imagine Cohen taking over in 2021 and having to pay the second time offender penalties because of the incentives paid to Michael Fucking Wacha.

[Edgy MD]

Of course if the Mets wanted to be a REAL big market team they'd sign Cole. Then they'd go sign a guy like Wacha or Porcello for depth anyway, because they are good depth signings, just not a good "Plan A"

I get bored quickly talking about markets, but I like talking about logic. And logic makes it difficult to argue that "if the Mets wanted to be a REAL big market team they'd sign Cole." No matter how much they wanted to sign Gerritt Cole, there are still a half dozen or more major market teams and only one of him. Each of those teams would have a point at which they'd pull out and realize their money was better invested elsewhere. And one would not.

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: Of course if the Mets wanted to be a REAL big market team they'd sign Cole. Then they'd go sign a guy like Wacha or Porcello for depth anyway, because they are good depth signings, just not a good "Plan A" I get bored quickly talking about markets, but I like talking about logic. And logic makes it difficult to argue that "if the Mets wanted to be a REAL big market team they'd sign Cole." No matter how much they wanted to sign Gerritt Cole, there are still a half dozen or more major market teams and only one of him. Each of those teams would have a point at which they'd pull out and realize their money was better invested elsewhere. And one would not.

Ok, I don't literally mean it has to be Cole there. It could be Cole, or Strasburg, or Rendon, or the big free agents they didn't sign last year. the point is htat a big market team with the revenue sources of the New York market should be signing guys like Wacha as backups not as their top signing in free agency.

[Edgy MD]

Well, let's then hope that's not their top guy.



And HEY, they've since signed Porky! So they've already topped Wacha! PSYCHED!

[Ceetar]

=nymr83 post_id=28353 time=1576205732 user_id=54]


Ok, I don't literally mean it has to be Cole there. It could be Cole, or Strasburg, or Rendon, or the big free agents they didn't sign last year. the point is htat a big market team with the revenue sources of the New York market should be signing guys like Wacha as backups not as their top signing in free agency.

[Centerfield]

=Ceetar post_id=28367 time=1576243957 user_id=102]
=nymr83 post_id=28353 time=1576205732 user_id=54]


Ok, I don't literally mean it has to be Cole there. It could be Cole, or Strasburg, or Rendon, or the big free agents they didn't sign last year. the point is htat a big market team with the revenue sources of the New York market should be signing guys like Wacha as backups not as their top signing in free agency.

[nymr83]

Was he not being obviously facetious?

[Centerfield]

Was he? He spends day and night defending and justifying the Wilpons it's hard to tell.

[Ceetar]

23. Jed Lowrie – Athletics. Three years, $30MM. Only two second basemen — Jose Ramirez and Jose Altuve — have been better than Lowrie by measure of WAR over the past two seasons

I mean, sure, he wasn't Machado. They should've signed Machado. But this is not a binary situation in that the Mets didn't sign the top 1-2 free agents therefore they're garbage and have no shot.



If this is a money implication, Cano certainly counts. Or is this the Republican way of not counting Mike Piazza as a signing or the 1999-2000 teams as good?


=Centerfield post_id=28373 time=1576257301 user_id=65]
Was he? He spends day and night defending and justifying the Wilpons it's hard to tell.

[nymr83]

Mike Piazza? He was signed 20 years ago before anyone had ever heard of Bernie Madoff. How is he at all an argument for what the Mets do right or wrong now?

[Ceetar]

=nymr83 post_id=28380 time=1576259452 user_id=54]
Mike Piazza? He was signed 20 years ago before anyone had ever heard of Bernie Madoff. How is he at all an argument for what the Mets do right or wrong now?

[nymr83]

Mike Piazza? He was signed 20 years ago before anyone had ever heard of Bernie Madoff. How is he at all an argument for what the Mets do right or wrong now? Someone keeps spamming certain 'so and so in 30 years' stats and things like that. I don't really read them, so I couldn't tell you exactly. Anyway, Lowrie was a good signing. Porcello is fine. This isn't a LOLMets move no matter what lies you want to contort your narrative in. I would've loved Strasburg, or Ryu. I don't think Cole is the guy you sign for that long, I don't really trust his Astro numbers. I would've extended or signed Wheeler. But hell, the Mets rotation is pretty damn good.

I certainly don't cite shit almost as old as I am to make arguments about how the Mets are currently run. I don't need to defend anyone else.



Lowrie was fine and so was Porcello when looking at those moves in a vacuum. When looking at them in the CONTEXT of them being the offseason's "big signings" by a team that should be able to operate with a top 5 payroll, the moves are subpar.

[batmagadanleadoff]

fuck off. I defend the Mets as a good team and fun and I try to temper to the nonsense that everything they do is wrong, bad and not enough. That's bullshit. The Mets are in a VERY good position right now, and I find the nonsense here and elsewhere trying to tell me the real joy is in some fictional 2025 wet dream.

A coupl' a things. First off, the Mets are not in a 'VERY good position". They have a good team. I'll grant you that because I happen to agree. But being a good team doesn't necessarily put the Mets in a good position these days because they play in a division that, right now, appears to be brutally competitive. In today's NL East, a "good" team could very well finish in fourth place. Granted, no one knows what's gonna happen. Anything could happen and anything will happen because hardly anything in sports ever goes according to script. There'll be WS contenders that are out of it by August and underdogs playing out of their minds and a coupl'a new star players that nobody saw coming. It happens every year. But hoping for the unexpected or to get lucky or to play over your head or to hope that Porcello rediscovers his Cy Young groove (he won't - just like Mo Vaughn didn't rediscover his old MVP groove and Michael Cuddyer - a zillion miles from Coors Field and coming off a season long injury at age 35 -- didn't win a batting title at Citi Field) is not a reasonable strategy for a NY team. You can only go by what's "on paper". And right now, on paper, I'm not even sure the Mets look like a Wild Card team. The strategy shouldn't be to maintain last year's status quo or to field a "good" team. Not in this division.



I'm happy for you that you can enjoy the Mets with an almost child-like innocence. And that's not an insult. Sometimes I wish i could, as well. But that doesn't mean that none of us grumpy beaten-down cynics can't talk about Steven Cohen, which to any other hard core Mets fan, is shaping up as one of the biggest stories in franchise history. We're gonna talk about everything Mets. The good, the bad, the ugly and the big black dildo in Kevin Plawecki's old locker. You need to get over it already.

[nymr83]

What is your obsession with Plawecki's sex toys?