Can You Cano?

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: HahnSolo wrote: This move has Omar's fingerprints all over it. Throw in a few more prospects and it'll have Steve Phillips' fingerprints all over it.

As if on cue, Steve Phillips wonders in a tweet why we would trade our prospects for a closer when there are a plethora of them available as free agents.

Um. Ok Steve. I mean, he's right, but. Ya know.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Diaz definitely makes the bullpen better. Cano is 10 years older than McNeil and he put up a 2.9 WAR to McNeil's 2.7 in 100 more PAs. There is no reason to assume that Cano will be better than Jeff McNeil for the next 5 years. If the Mets don't trust McNeil and want a brand name closer, go sign fucking Kimbrel (BIG SPLASH!) and get Jed Lowrie or some shit. Talking about Kelenic and Dunn and McNeil is st00pid.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm hoping that there's room in the same infield for both Cano and McNeil.

Cano could end up playing first (which of course impacts Alonso) or second with McNeil going to third. (Or maybe Cano would play third? That seems less likely.)

Of all the possibilities, I prefer Cano at second, McNeil at third, and Frazier elsewhere.

[Centerfield]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Diaz definitely makes the bullpen better. Cano is 10 years older than McNeil and he put up a 2.9 WAR to McNeil's 2.7 in 100 more PAs. There is no reason to assume that Cano will be better than Jeff McNeil for the next 5 years. If the Mets don't trust McNeil and want a brand name closer, go sign fucking Kimbrel (BIG SPLASH!) and get Jed Lowrie or some shit. Talking about Kelenic and Dunn and McNeil is st00pid.

Yes yes yes.

ABNS for GM.

[Frayed Knot]

Do keep in mind that Diaz will cost the Mets less in salary for the sum of the four years they'd have him under control than will one, maybe one-plus, seasons of Kimbrel (and you'd have to commit to
more than that) - so, if nothing else, that leaves munny available for other purposes. And, yes, you'd have to factor in what Cano will cost, etc. (not going to do any of that now as there are too many
moving parts to this - including the part about whether or not any of this is real). But the larger point is that buying closers on the open market hasn't always proven to be a good, or cost-effective,
way to go so I understand their thought process here.

The details, as they always are, will be the deciding factor as to whether or not this is a good idea.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jon Morosi (MLB.com) wrote: A trade of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the #Mets is not imminent, sources say, but is one possible outcome of the talks Jerry Dipoto and Brodie Van Wagenen are pursuing on multiple fronts with uncommon ardor.

Sources: 2B Jeff McNeil in play for #Mariners as well as Kellenic/Dunn in potential Cano/Diaz trade with #Mets. #Phillies also talking to SEA, possibly just for Diaz, as @JoelSherman1 said. NYM names would seem difficult to top, but hard to judge without knowing $, full details.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Do keep in mind that Diaz will cost the Mets less in salary for the sum of the four years they'd have him under control than will one, maybe one-plus, seasons of Kimbrel (and you'd have to commit to more than that) - so, if nothing else, that leaves munny available for other purposes. And, yes, you'd have to factor in what Cano will cost, etc. (not going to do any of that now as there are too many moving parts to this - including the part about whether or not any of this is real). But the larger point is that buying closers on the open market hasn't always proven to be a good, or cost-effective, way to go so I understand their thought process here. The details, as they always are, will be the deciding factor as to whether or not this is a good idea.

Right. The prize here is Diaz. Young, controllable closer. And what we'd be willing to give up to get him.

He is unquestionably linked to Cano. So any monetary advantage to Diaz is immediately offset. In fact, money is a net negative, as Cano costs more than any closer would.

So Seattle has to throw in money. Whether or not this is a good deal depends on how much they eat. Another factor is how good you think Cano will be. For me, I don't think he'll be good for very long. He might not be very good even for one year.

So if the deal was Cano and Diaz for nothing, I say no.

Once Seattle starts asking for McNeil or Kelenic, I hang up and move on.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Cano turned 36 just last month. The odds really aren't good that he'll be productive in the last year of his contract, which will end right around the time of his 41st birthday.

They may surprise me and make a deal that I'll like, but from what we've heard so far I find I'm hoping that nothing comes of this. Brodie should direct his ardor in another direction.

Rosenthal said the Phillies are interested in Diaz without Cano. That may be one of the angles that the Mets are pursuing as well. Who knows?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Do keep in mind that Diaz will cost the Mets less in salary for the sum of the four years they'd have him under control than will one, maybe one-plus, seasons of Kimbrel (and you'd have to commit to more than that) - so, if nothing else, that leaves munny available for other purposes. And, yes, you'd have to factor in what Cano will cost, etc. (not going to do any of that now as there are too many moving parts to this - including the part about whether or not any of this is real). But the larger point is that buying closers on the open market hasn't always proven to be a good, or cost-effective, way to go so I understand their thought process here. The details, as they always are, will be the deciding factor as to whether or not this is a good idea. Right. The prize here is Diaz. Young, controllable closer. And what we'd be willing to give up to get him. He is unquestionably linked to Cano. So any monetary advantage to Diaz is immediately offset. In fact, money is a net negative, as Cano costs more than any closer would. So Seattle has to throw in money. Whether or not this is a good deal depends on how much they eat. Another factor is how good you think Cano will be. For me, I don't think he'll be good for very long. He might not be very good even for one year. So if the deal was Cano and Diaz for nothing, I say no. Once Seattle starts asking for McNeil or Kelenic, I hang up and move on.

Cano has 5 years x $24M per left ($120M total). The rumor was the M's send $10M per, let's pretend that's true. It woud drop the total to $70M the Mets would owe Cano for his age 36-40 season. For the record I don't advocate signing Kimbrel at all. But I think the Mets could sign two of Familia, David Robertson, Adam Ottovino, Joe Kelly, Andrew Miller for 3 years each and around that same $70M they would owe to Cano and have a killer bullpen. And they'd get to keep McNeil, Dunn and Kelenic. Get creative from there and trade for a bat. I'm just saying, if I'm gonna be stuck with an albatross, let it be Jay Bruce ($14M x 2 seasons) rather than ~$70M for an old, post-PED Cano.

[Mex17]

I started envisioning Kelenic's Hall of Fame induction ceremony the moment his name was mentioned in all this.

At this point, they had better hope that Alonso is a top ROY candidate because they really need some reliable righthanded pop from somewhere other than Frazier (overrated in my book) and Cespedes (no idea when/if he is coming back or what to expect from him once he does).

Three years of Familia can be had probably for around $30 million. That is just one example that I have memorized from that fangraphs site that listed the projections for the top 50 FAs. Is four years of Diaz control (and possibly four years of Mallex Smith control) better than that if it comes with 5 years, $44 million ($120 - $50 coming from Seattle - $26 of Bruce going to Seattle) for an over-35 Cano? That's an $8.8 million AAV.

[smg58]

So remember when the Phillies owner said they might even “get a little stupid” with their offers this offseason? It’s time to put your money where your mouth is, buddy.

[MFS62]

I don't want to do any of the versions of this deal I've read.
Keep Noah and spend money. Then, they'll have multiple choices at several positions and can sort them out and keep the best ones. Why weaken yourself just to make a big trade? A fireballing young right-hander for a (probably) washed up infielder from a west coast team? And giving up other young players for others who might not be as good? We've seen that before. The guy we gave up went on to a Hall of Fame career and the infielder we got just got older. This smells of a Nolan Ryan Redux. No thanks.
This would be more crash than splash.

Later

[Centerfield]

smg58 wrote: So remember when the Phillies owner said they might even “get a little stupid” with their offers this offseason? It’s time to put your money where your mouth is, buddy.

I don't see much home.

No one outstupids the Mets.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I started envisioning Kelenic's Hall of Fame induction ceremony the moment his name was mentioned in all this. At this point, they had better hope that Alonso is a top ROY candidate because they really need some reliable righthanded pop from somewhere other than Frazier (overrated in my book) and Cespedes (no idea when/if he is coming back or what to expect from him once he does). Three years of Familia can be had probably for around $30 million. That is just one example that I have memorized from that fangraphs site that listed the projections for the top 50 FAs. Is four years of Diaz control (and possibly four years of Mallex Smith control) better than that if it comes with 5 years, $44 million ($120 - $50 coming from Seattle - $26 of Bruce going to Seattle) for an over-35 Cano? That's an $8.8 million AAV.

BBR lists the "Earliest Arb Eligible" date for Diaz as 2020. So if he's a Met in 2019, he'll be playing for the MLB version of peanuts. This is great! If he repeats his 2018 season again (best case scenario!), he will prob earn $6-10M in arbitration anyway (still a good deal for that production). But if he's all the sudden making $6-10M or more per season every year in arbitration, then is he really so inexpensive? BTW - I got this shit here: the arbitration record for a first-time eligible relief pitcher is $6.25M, set way back in 2009 by Jonathan Papelbon. MLBTR sez it would take someone like Edwin Diaz to beat that! What a coinkydink!

TL;DR - Diaz is good. If he keeps being good, he will very soon be expensive, too, like most good players are. Don't take on Cano just to get one guaranteed cheap year out of a very good closer. Dumb.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Good closers also have a habit of becoming shit closers.

I'm terrified by now.

[Centerfield]

Looks like it might happen tonight. God help us.

I miss Sandy.

[Mex17]

What if Haniger is in the deal instead of Mallex Smith?

I like Mallex, but I think Haniger would fit more of a need.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/32771/mitch-haniger

Edited November 29, 2018 by Guest

[Mex17]

Centerfield wrote: Looks like it might happen tonight. God help us.

Source?

[metirish]

Mex17 wrote: Centerfield wrote: Looks like it might happen tonight. God help us. Source?

All the usual twats are reporting on Twitter that it's "this" close but likely not announced tonight.... But watch this space as it might

[A Boy Named Seo]

Mex17 wrote: What if Haniger is in the deal instead of Mallex Smith? I like Mallex, but I think Haniger would fit more of a need. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/32771/mitch-haniger

Haniger and Diaz definitely changes my opinion. But it also depends what's going the other way.

Edit: I have to say none of the twitter twat stuff has Haniger's name anywhere.

[Frayed Knot]

Just to be clear here: I don't want Cano.
BUTT ... if absorbing Cano and his contract, giving us a bat who can absolutely help the lineup at least in the short run ('19 + '20?), lessens the price needed to get Diaz then it's a line worth exploring.
Yeah, good closers can turn into shit closers but those odds are smaller for a guy with 1/4 the mileage on his arm and at maybe 1/3 the price as compared to buying one on the open market.

The key is to be willing to walk away if the price gets too high. At times the problem in these big deals is that mgmt has seemingly decided before hand that they MUST get a certain player at which
point there's almost no practical limit to what you're willing to offer. Victor Zambrano comes to mind (want Kazmir? ... Sure!!), as does the deal for Kris Benson. One of the great lessons laid out in
'MONEYBALL' was that it's easier to recover from the player you fail to sign than it is to recover from the signing you make at the wrong price. I know this is a trade we're talking about here but the same
principle applies.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Seems like all the assholes on twitter are crying in unison Cano + Diaz for Bruce + Swarzak + "prospects".

[Mex17]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Seems like all the assholes on twitter are crying in unison Cano + Diaz for Bruce + Swarzak + "prospects".

5 years, $120M left on Cano - ($50M from Seattle + $26M of Bruce going to Seattle + $8M of Swarzak going to Seattle) = $36 million. That is now a $7.2 million AAV. More palatable.

Now does that mean that you pay more in prospects due to the increased monetary offset or does Swarzak have enough value as a player where you do not have to give up as many prospects? I have no idea.

And does losing Swarzak weaken the middle of the bullpen? I know that he had a bad 2018 but a comeback was not out of the question in my view.

[Gwreck]

Including one prospect in the deal from the Mets’ side makes sense. Diaz is established and comes with club control. And no problem with a bad-contract swap of Cano for Bruce/Swarzak. But you don’t include three key prospects in that deal.

3 key prospects is who you trade to get an impact star.

[Centerfield]

Jim Duquette thinks this is too much to give up.

That should tell us something.

[Mex17]

"Though the deal is not yet official, the trade on the table is Cano/Diaz for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Jarred Kelenic, Jeff McNeil, and Justin Dunn. It is possible the Mets can subtract one of those younger players (Kelenic, McNeil, Dunn) before the deal becomes official."

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news

That's a lot.

[Centerfield]

This is propaganda right? So when the real trade is announced we love it more?

[ashie62]

BVG, Just don't do it! Stupid plus

[Mex17]

Food for thought here. . .

Over the remainder of his contract, Cano needs to average 106 hits in order to reach 3,000 and 18 HR to reach 400. He did get nabbed for PEDs once, but it was long after the "steroid era" where a lot of achievements were called into question.

If he hits those milestones with only the one PED blemish and maintains something close to his current career .304/.355/.493 slashline, is he legitimately in the conversaion for Cooperstown?

Edited November 29, 2018 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

This sounds really bad. Is it too late to hire Chaim Bloom?