Parlons de Josh Donaldson

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: And here, as if on cue, is an article on Donaldson examining his plusses and minuses.

STATCAST! This is a Mike Petriello article, so happily it's got lots of data.

Steamer? 2019 Steamer projection
.256/.366/.484 in 560 PA, 131 wRC+, 27 home runs, 4.5 Wins Above Replacement


Hell, if he gave you 4.5, 4, 3.5 in a slow decline over three years, that'd be a steal at 3/58 (as group-thought by Fangraphs readers)

I wonder if you could get him to bite at like 3/50 if you offered it like right now, early, while maybe others are looking at Machado.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets did get him, it'd be classic Mets: getting an MVP years later and in serious decline. Oh, and he's well into his 30s so expect even more decline. Because these cheeseball cheap ass owners can't do anything without cutting corners and coming up with a plan that depends on the Hail Mary. And so they'll get what they fucking deserve. You'd figure that the team from New York City would just flex their muscles and grab the Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper the way Trump grabs whatever pussy he wants to grab. But not these fucking deadbeats. They'll go for the Mo Vaughn hoping he'll drop 125 pounds and rediscover his stroke from eight years ago. That's always the plan. They'll never learn. It's Michael Cuddyer all over again. And Waiting for David Godot Wright.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If the Mets did get him, it'd be classic Mets: getting an MVP years later and in serious decline. Oh, and he's well into his 30s so expect even more decline. Because these cheeseball cheap ass owners can't do anything without cutting corners and coming up with a plan that depends on the Hail Mary. And so they'll get what they fucking deserve. You'd figure that the team from New York City would just flex their muscles and grab the Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper the way Trump grabs whatever pussy he wants to grab. But not these fucking deadbeats. They'll go for the Mo Vaughn hoping he'll drop 125 pounds and rediscover his stroke from eight years ago. That's always the plan. They'll never learn. It's Michael Cuddyer all over again. And Waiting for David Godot Wright.

This is some seriously useful analysis and insight.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I don't know, Ceets... go through it sentence by sentence and each one is
(at least on some level) true.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: If the Mets did get him, it'd be classic Mets: getting an MVP years later and in serious decline. Oh, and he's well into his 30s so expect even more decline. Because these cheeseball cheap ass owners can't do anything without cutting corners and coming up with a plan that depends on the Hail Mary. And so they'll get what they fucking deserve. You'd figure that the team from New York City would just flex their muscles and grab the Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper the way Trump grabs whatever pussy he wants to grab. But not these fucking deadbeats. They'll go for the Mo Vaughn hoping he'll drop 125 pounds and rediscover his stroke from eight years ago. That's always the plan. They'll never learn. It's Michael Cuddyer all over again. And Waiting for David Godot Wright. This is some seriously useful analysis and insight.

It is. You just need to get past the obvious "schtick" which includes a purely gratuitous cursing effect that I've been lately developing for style points . You should seriously tamp down your dreams and expectations for ballplayers that are closer to 35 than to 30, have years and years of stark decline, are racking up major health issues and have missed more games than they've played in recent seasons. That's seasons, with an s at the end. I mean, WTF? How many warning signs do you have to willfully ignore to pigeonhole yet another player into the he'll be great if the Mets sign him camp, all because the Mets are too fucking cheap to sign the player or players they ought to be signing?

Edited November 7, 2018 by Guest

[Ceetar]

d'Kong76 wrote: I don't know, Ceets... go through it sentence by sentence and each one is (at least on some level) true.

David Wright is in fact God, yes.

I mean, sure, I'd definitely prefer the Mets sign guys that HAVEN'T won the MVP before.

And only guys that were healthy last year. Those are a lock to not get injured next year. Guys like Todd Frazier. Above average hitters with good defense, always healthy. Great pickup.

Or Jay Bruce. always healthy. Not particularly great but at least his one tool was pretty good. Coming off a good year and a decade of health.

Frazier was 24th in games played over the last 5 years. Bruce was 55th. Solidly healthy guys.

Clearly only the Mets though. The Cubs swiped up the cream of the crop, Yu Darvish, and he must've been somewhere in the top 10 of Cy Young voting right?

[Ceetar]

Or maybe you mean guys in their 30s? Like when they gave a big contract to the 32 year old Curtis Granderson coming off an injured year with the Yankees. Guy must've had a dozen trips to the DL over 4 years with the Mets right? No way he'll put up 10+ fWAR or help lead the team to two playoff appearances.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Ceetar wrote: David Wright is in fact God, yes.

On some level, yes.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Or maybe you mean guys in their 30s? Like when they gave a big contract to the 32 year old Curtis Granderson coming off an injured year with the Yankees. Guy must've had a dozen trips to the DL over 4 years with the Mets right? No way he'll put up 10+ fWAR or help lead the team to two playoff appearances.

Josh Donaldson has way more red flags than Curtis Granderson did when the Mets signed him. Also Curtis was, at the time, a typical corner cutting cheap ass Mets move. If the Mets actually behaved like the big market team that they are, they would've signed Nelson Cruz that off season -- because they play in the nation's largest market and ought to have been able to sign Cruz effortlessly. Then they woulda had themselves an all star/MVP candidate every single season and might've won three straight WS instead of settling for one of their two first place finishes in 30 seasons and some wild card one off games. You get what you pay for.

You're likelier to enjoy a great meal at some Michelin star restaurant than at some cheap eats joint that you know nothing about other than what you've read. Doesn't mean your cheap eats adventure won't pan out but the risk of disappointment is exponentially greater.

[Ceetar]

Granderson made $5 million more than Nelson Cruz in 2014.

Granderson in an injury plagued year, had 1.2 fWAR. Cruz had a whopping 1.6. Most of that was defense, because Granderson played all outfield positions, somewhat decently and Cruz is and was worse than Jay Bruce.

Cruz was coming off THREE sub-average years going into that offseason. Maybe you could make a case after he had a nice year with the Orioles they could've scooped him up, but one good contract year in 4 isn't exactly 'must sign' territory. Especially with a hot prospect like Michael Conforto almost ready. And then the Mets went out mere months later and traded for Cespedes.

No one, literally no one, thought Cruz would do what he did with the Mariners. Also no one anticipated the juiced ball that come in the second half of 2015. Also the Mariners, with Cruz, and Cano, etc, did not exactly succeed.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Donaldson at 3/50-something does seem intriguing.

[Edgy MD]

There was an article at Deadspin some years back about how to hate all your team's offensive moves.

This guy is over the hill. Let us reason that because his best years are apparently behind him, nothing good can possibly be ahead.

This guy is at the top of his game. Let us reason that he'll demand a contract so long that he'll be an embarrassing corpse stinking up the clubhouse the last two or three years of it.

This guy is a second-tier guy. Let us reason that the team doesn't really want to win. They just want to field a passable team and say they tried.

This guy has been hurt. Let us reason that injuries never heal. And all players, once hurt, are doomed.

[Mex17]

Arenado > Donaldson > Frazier

Therefore, two questions. . .

a) Can you realistically move Frazier (and his $9 million)?

Can you get Donaldson on a one year (or one year with a team option) makegood deal so that you leave your options open for a potential Arenado run next year?

[smg58]

Frazier (mainly for his glove) was worth more than that last season. So I don't see why not.

The latter question is up to Donaldson. Like I said in a different thread, I'd be willing to be very generous for a year.

And I've never understood the hate on Mo Vaughn. When we got him I said I'd be thrilled with 30 homers and .270, and we got 26 homers and .259. His .259/.349/.456 line wasn't great, but it wasn't awful, either (it would have looked nice from our first basemen this past season). Compared to the nightmarishly bad seasons we got from Burnitz and Cedeno, and the nightmarishly pedestrian season we got from Robbie Alomar (who, unlike Vaughn, we WERE expecting MVP-caliber seasons from), he did fine.

[seawolf17]

Mex17 wrote: a) Can you realistically move Frazier (and his $9 million)?

Absolutely, yes. A team in need of a 3B who maybe doesn't have a lot of money to spend because their owners suck would love a guy like that. Good guy, team player, solid with the media, doesn't make waves, isn't great but will get his hits. Say, the Mets, for examp---ah, shit.

[batmagadanleadoff]

It's not Mo Vaughn hate. Its Fred Wilpon hate.The Yankees also needed a first baseman that off season. They went out and got the reigning MVP Jason Giambi. We get Fatso McFatso, who hadn't fucking played in a year and a half. Ferchrissakes already.

[Mex17]

2019 (age 33 season): guaranteed
2020 (age 34 season): team option - you keep him if you cannot get Arenado
2021 (age 35 season): option year kicks in after minimum number of PAs
2022 (age 36 season): same as 2021

Salary commesurate with market value for someone who was playing at MVP caliber level as recently as 2015-2016.

See if this is palatable to the player if he goes unsigned late into the offseason. In the meantime, focus on getting your catcher and two impact relief pitchers.

[Mex17]

I would think that most if not all of the teams that need a third basemen would be interested but wary based upon Donaldson's statistically off/injury compromised season combined with the possibility of Arenado hitting the market in a year. Am I nuts for thinking that this (Arenado specifically) affects Donaldson's overall market?

At the same time, you have to deal with the here and now and try to make your team better for next year this offseason. There is no guarantee that Colorado will not extend Arenado in the same way they kept Blackmon off the market.

It's a dilemma. I remember when the Mets signed Bonilla when they could have waited a year and bid on Bonds instead. Steroids aside, what would have been better for the Mets in the long run? (And yes, I know that Bonds probably would have gone to the Giants anyway because that is where he is from and because Mays is his godfather. . .just saying though.)

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: It's not Mo Vaughn hate. Its Fred Wilpon hate.The Yankees also needed a first baseman that off season. They went out and got the reigning MVP Jason Giambi. We get Fatso McFatso, who hadn't fucking played in a year and a half. Ferchrissakes already.

Giambi wasn't the reigning MVP that offseason. Suzuki was.

And, apart from looking at the Vaughn deal alone, the 2002 makeover was exactly the makeover demanded by everybody who was agitating at the Mets for their cheapness.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: It's not Mo Vaughn hate. Its Fred Wilpon hate.The Yankees also needed a first baseman that off season. They went out and got the reigning MVP Jason Giambi. We get Fatso McFatso, who hadn't fucking played in a year and a half. Ferchrissakes already. Giambi wasn't the reigning MVP that offseason. Suzuki was. And, apart from looking at the Vaughn deal alone, the 2002 makeover was exactly the makeover demanded by everybody who was agitating at the Mets for their cheapness.

Picky, picky. So I was off by a year. Giambi won it the year before. The next year, when Ichiro won it, Giambi was the runner up, finishing just eight vote points behind. I think this strengthens my point.

The Yankees went out and got the reigning runner up MVP who won the award the year before. We got the Michael Cuddyer of 2002.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: It's not Mo Vaughn hate. Its Fred Wilpon hate.The Yankees also needed a first baseman that off season. They went out and got the reigning MVP Jason Giambi. We get Fatso McFatso, who hadn't fucking played in a year and a half. Ferchrissakes already. Giambi wasn't the reigning MVP that offseason. Suzuki was. And, apart from looking at the Vaughn deal alone, the 2002 makeover was exactly the makeover demanded by everybody who was agitating at the Mets for their cheapness. Picky, picky. So I was off by a year. Giambi won it the year before. The next year, when Ichiro won it, Giambi was the runner up, finishing just eight vote points behind. I think this strengthens my point. The Yankees went out and got the reigning runner up MVP who won the award the year before. We got the Michael Cuddyer of 2002.

And it was a dumb vote, to boot. Ichiro had no business winning the MVP, not by any stretch of the imagination, and especially no business coming out ahead of Giambi.

[Centerfield]

1 year. $23 million.

No idea if we made any attempt to get into the picture. I'm sure there will be excuses.

[Centerfield]

Done deal.

Really disappointing. I think we all know Machado ain't happening. I thought maybe Donaldson was a possibility, if he would take a 1 or 2 year deal.

I don't know where we go from here.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Someone online said the Mets were 1/20 on him, so close but no cigar.

[smg58]

I'd have done one and 25. He's totally worth the gamble at the price the Braves paid.

[Frayed Knot]

Hard to say as you can see Donaldson's 2019 going in either direction.
He turns 34 next week, is coming off a year with <200 ABs, and will be four seasons removed from his MVP year and two since his last 500 PA year at this point.
On the other hand, is real good when healthy.

That the Mets were in on him at all shows they -- and specifically Todd Frazier's recent agent -- are willing to do ... Something with Frazier although I don't know what.
Trade? Move to 1B? Reduce his time? You certainly wouldn't think they'd just sit him.


As for the Braves: 'Hey 24 y/o Johan Camargo!, thanks for the 3.7 WAR -- best on team behind Freddie and the two children (Acuna & Albies) -- and for the 116 OPS+, but we got other plans'.

[smg58]

Camargo can (and presumably will) move around the diamond for the Braves this year. And it's not like the Braves are screwed if Donaldson gets hurt.

[nymr83]

would have loved to see the mets make this deal, especially as the risk is only one year!!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Picture a healthy Donaldson added to Acuna and FFF at the top of that lineup.

1 year, potentially-VERY-helpful veteran signings, done early to get ahead of market pressures...

... it's almost like other teams are better at this win-now thing than we are!

[Centerfield]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Picture a healthy Donaldson added to Acuna and FFF at the top of that lineup. 1 year, potentially-VERY-helpful veteran signings, done early to get ahead of market pressures... ... it's almost like other teams are better at this win-now thing than we are!

It's depressing. And Philadelphia is linked to every major free agent. Granted they haven't actually signed anyone yet, but you know, it's not looking great.