IST ALCS 2018: BOS vs HOU -- Not The MFYs

[G-Fafif]

Astros start taking on the Red Sox at Fenway Park starting Saturday night. 211 regular-season wins, none of which will matter, some announcer is likely to say. Verlander vs. Sale to get things going.

[Lefty Specialist]

It’s a weird thing to say, but the Red Sox are the worst 108-win team I’ve ever seen.

[Guest vtmet]

Lefty Specialist wrote: It’s a weird thing to say, but the Red Sox are the worst 108-win team I’ve ever seen.

well they do play in a shitty team division, so it's easy for them and the Yanks to pad their win totals...O's, Rays and Jays aren't exactly scaring most good teams...

who did the Sox have their best records against:
O's: 16-3 (O's were a .290 team overall);
Jays: 15-4 (.450 team overall;
NL: 16-4 (they were a combined 12-1 vs the Braves/Nats/Marlins; Mets/Phils were the only 2 NL teams to put up a fight);
KC: 5-1 ( a .358 team overall);
Angels: 6-0 ( a .494 team overall);
Rangers: 6-1 ( a .414 team overall);
Rays: 11-8 (a surprisingly good record, only AL team that they beat up that had a winning record);

they played mediocre at best against the rest of their opponents

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/grid

[HahnSolo]

I'm not counting that as a demerit for the Sox. Beating bad teams is what good teams do. that's how you get super-high win totals.

When the Mets won 108 games in '86, there were four other NL teams with winning records (SFG, PHIL, HOU, CIN). The Mets record against those teams was 30-24; against everybody else they were 78-30.

[Guest vtmet]

HahnSolo wrote: I'm not counting that as a demerit for the Sox. Beating bad teams is what good teams do. that's how you get super-high win totals. When the Mets won 108 games in '86, there were four other NL teams with winning records (SFG, PHIL, HOU, CIN). The Mets record against those teams was 30-24; against everybody else they were 78-30.

true enough, and I'm sure that's how the Braves won so many NL East titles (beating up on the mediocre/bad teams, and treading water vs the good teams)...but that also could explain why the Braves (and the Nats) didn't fare very well in the playoffs...Do the Red Sox have the pitching to win a Championship vs other Championship caliber teams? Or are they just good at beating up on the non-championship caliber teams? I live in Red Sox country, and when my friends post on FB during Red Sox games, all they do is bitch about the pitching (and the way that they complain about JD Martinez, I wouldn't expect that he had 82 XBH's, 43 HRs, 130 RBI and 111 runs scored this season)

[Frayed Knot]

The difference with the AL this season is that there were several really bad teams, as well as some good ones, so the result was a league 'stretched out' from top to bottom while the NL was
more squashed at the ends and bunched towards the middle. AL this year had three 100+ game winners but also four teams worse than the 98 loss Marlins, vs the NL where 96 wins and 98 losses
were the high & low.
That's the same condition which existed for a long time during the '90s and in the early 21st century years. No NL team, for instance, has surpassed, or even reached, the '86 NYM's winning pct
of .667 in the 32 seasons since and yet the '18 BoSox are now the 4th AL team to reach or top it ['95 CLE, '98 NYY, '01 SEA] but they've also had the 119 loss Tigers and now the 115 loss O's

I don't really have an explanation as to why that 'bunch in the middle' NL vs 'stretched out' AL has often been the case in the past and rarely if ever can I remember it being the other way around.
Maybe increased inter-league play over the last decade-plus made that go away for a while but it returned big time this year and it's probably not a coincidence that this was also the first season in
the last 14 where the NL had the better of IL play; not by much (.527 winning pct) but it's something and a 300 game sample isn't a small size.

Bottom line is that I think that makes it easier (relatively of course) to win a ton of games in the AL but, at the same time, those totals also mean less because of it making the 'Worst 108 Win
Team Ever' phrase make some sense, and I think those using just the record totals to say that BOS/HOU/NYY are/were all superior to LAD/MIL/CHC are making a bad assumption.

Hope that made sense.

[Fman99]

Enjoying game 1. These teams seem pretty evenly matched and they also seem to not really like each other.

[Frayed Knot]

Not that these stats should be the sole measure of a game, but at the stunning rate of two hits per hour [8 hits combined, 4 Hours 3 Minutes] there were chess fans watching last night saying "Damn this game was slow!"


To break it down a bit further:
- Eight hits (5 Houston, 3 Sox) half coming in the 9th inning including 1/4 (one aside) after the game had already been decided by the 3R Gurriel HR
- 20 strikeouts & 13 walks, nine of those walks by Sox pitchers who decided that wasn't enough so they threw in 3 HBPs for good measure
- the volume of pitches thrown wasn't even all that bad if you use the 5 pitches/out standard*, the exceptions being Sale (86 thru 4 IP) and Brandon Workman's ugly 26 pitches to get one out outing

When it comes to MLBN showing 'Classic MLB Post-Season games, burn the tape of this one.
There was some crisp play early on but then it just got bogged down in non-action and I can only imagine how slow it would have been without the six mound visit rule (5 hours?), a rule that still has
far too many exceptions to it [oooh, they're using Smith to PH? We knew he was on the roster sheet but had no idea they might actually USE him so there's no way we can continue with a meeting of
the entire infield!].
But at least Joe West was quick, eh?



* Houston: Verlander (90 pitches/18 outs = exactly 5/per); Pressley (18/3); McCullers (13/3); McHugh (16/3)
Boston: Sale (86/12 = 7.2/per); Kelly (33/5); Barnes (21/4); Brasier (12/3); Workman (26/1); Hembree (10/2)

[Frayed Knot]

Let's hope for a better Game 2 tonight as David Price (yes, they're going there) goes for the Red Sox vs the Astros' Gerrit Cole (7 PM FOX) in what will be the first ever
post-season meeting of former #1 overall draft picks, although neither is appearing with their original drafting team (Price in 2007 by Tampa; Cole, 2011, Pittsburgh).

[Frayed Knot]

Hey, only two hours and we're already in the top of the 5th !!!! (big SC content here)
At least there's some actual action in this one. The Sox hand Price five runs and he still can't pitch well enough to stick around.
Not that Cole for the 'stros has been any better.



This Tyler White guy DH'ing for Houston ... are we sure that he and Evan Gattis, who I think is still on the Astros' roster, aren't the same person?
Similar size, same shape, same Grizzly Adams beard, and I don't think I've seen either with a mitt on his hand.

[Centerfield]

What happened to Fenway? It’s like a library out there.

[Centerfield]

Just checked Mookie Betts’ bio. Disappointed to learn his real name is not William Hayward Betts.

[Frayed Knot]

Also was nick-named after basketball player Mookie Blalock, not Mookie Wilson.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: This Tyler White guy DH'ing for Houston ... are we sure that he and Evan Gattis, who I think is still on the Astros' roster, aren't the same person? Similar size, same shape, same Grizzly Adams beard, and I don't think I've seen either with a mitt on his hand.

And we have an Evan Gattis sighting!! Either that or it's some large homeless guy they've dragged off the streets.

[Frayed Knot]

Kimbel gets the save, but hasn't exactly been lights out during this year's post-season.
A wall-scraper to end the game.

[Centerfield]

Kimbrel is my favorite guy this postseason. Was bad enough to give the MFY fans a glimmer of hope, then got his shit together just in time.

[Centerfield]

Don’t have a strong rooting interest in this one. I like the Sox but I wouldn’t mind if Houston won anyway. Either way I think Houston has a better chance to beat Milwaukee.

And then they pan to the crowd and I see those old ‘86 jerseys and it makes me twitch and hate them.

[Centerfield]

And I keep thinking Bartolo is the Red Sox bullpen coach.

[Frayed Knot]

So speaking of players hard to root for, Roberto Osuna, picked up by the Astros while under suspension for domestic violence, was brought in in a one run game to pitch the 8th.
He eventually hit a batter to load the bases, then hit another one to force in a run ... then served up a Grand Slam.

8-2 Sox in the 9th. Looks like they just might slide this one in in under four hours and prior to the NL game starting.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The Astros cheating stories seem potentially explosive, if only because MLB is so determined to handle it quietly.

[Fman99]

Good call on the replay there. Totally fan interference. Hey, Astros fans, ya big idiots. How about you sit down and not hump the players' gloves?

[Frayed Knot]

I'm like 15 minutes behind on this game doing the slow catch-up thing by FF'ing through the commercials ... but what a fucking leap by Betts!!
And, yeah, I think it's the right call.

[Frayed Knot]

And another game I won't be able to stay up and see the end of because it's taken them two hours just to get through the first four innings.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Fman99 wrote: Good call on the replay there. Totally fan interference. Hey, Astros fans, ya big idiots. How about you sit down and not hump the players' gloves?

It was exceedingly dumb to stand up and grab at it... but I think Joe West-- shocker-- may have overreached. Nobody reached into/above the field of play.

This game has been a firecracker.

[Zvon]

I think he would have caught it if the asshole didn't force his glove closed.

YER OUT!

[bmfc1]

A deep dive into the play, saying, without certainty, that the call was right. I blame it on the guy in the Reagan/Bush hat regardless of whether the call was right or wrong.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fan-interference-call-was-probably-good/

[Ceetar]

I dunno, seems clearly over the fence to me. I don't know how you can call that interference.

[Centerfield]

Zvon wrote: I think he would have caught it if the asshole didn't force his glove closed. YER OUT!

Agreed.

And in a way, this is a just result since it was an Astros HR that was negated by an Astro fan interfering at the Astros home park. What happens if the same thing happened but they were Boston? Altuve hits a HR ball, Betts goes back, has a beat on it, but then a Red Sox fan at Fenway clobbers his glove, and now it's an out.

Is this what happens?

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: I dunno, seems clearly over the fence to me. I don't know how you can call that interference.

And I see it as clearly in the field of play. The guy in white is the biggest giveaway. His left hand is on the wall, his body is outstretched over it, and his right hand extends even beyond that.

[Ceetar]

People are talking about the plane of the fence, i.e.

Only the barest fraction of an inch of lacing on the ball or Bett's glove needs to cross the front plane of the fence.

I'm not sure that's what the rule says though. It's literally one sentence "No interference shall be allowed when a fielder reaches over a
fence, railing, rope or into a stand to catch a ball."

Like, if Betts glove was flat on the fence, open, half over, and the ball comes straight down on the fair side, never crossing the fence, and a fan bats the glove away, is that interference? is that 'reaching over the fence'?

I'm pretty sure Betts reached over the fence. At least above the fence. I guess maybe pretty sure isn't enough to overturn.

As far as the fans go though, that's the right move. You don't reach over, but you CANNOT let Betts make a catch in the stands. I guess maybe the best move is to 'take one for the team' and put your back up against the fence? Clearly not 'over' and when the ball hits you it's a HR.