So Now What?

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, the upside to blowing multiple games is understanding that, hey, they were in a position to win every tame in this trip, except for the blowout.

Now for the winning part.

[Frayed Knot]

The Mets and Pythagorus don't really match up well this year.

A .500 record with a negative run differential usually implies a lot of close wins and larger losses. The large losses they have: seven of them by seven or more runs [8, 8, 10, 7, 11, 11, 11] -- that's a shitload
of extraneous runs-against in just 26 defeats -- and by contrast those losses are offset by only two big wins: [10, 12]

On the other side, a better than expected Pythag tends to imply you've grabbed more than your share of close wins, yet the Mets (like you haven't noticed) are now 7-11 in those so it's not like they've been
on some kind of unsustainable roll of good luck just to get to the treading water level. Were they in the first two week of the year? ... of course they were, 11-1 type of streaks don't exist without a dose
of luck. But I think the 'a run is a run is a run' system named after Mr. Pythagorus can get skewed in this still-small-ish sample of 52 games. It's still just an estimate, not a scientific law.

[MFS62]

"I'd rather be lucky than good" is not a safe position for someone on blood pressure medication.
Luck is the residue of design.
And this team has not been designed well.

Later

[Centerfield]

Sure. It's just an estimate. But when it's suggested that the Mets have just been unlucky, the estimate suggests just the opposite.

Anyway, back to to the main point. There's no point in blowing up a .500 team in May. At the least, we have another few weeks to see how this plays out. And that is more or less the frustration. There really isn't anything we can do. We can't upgrade, we can't rebuild. We just have to watch this excruciating story repeat itself over and over again.

This is the Mets existence.

One more consideration, if the Mets do decide to rebuild, I don't see how Sandy Alderson can be allowed to continue.

[Centerfield]

What is BBB?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: What is BBB?

Better Business Bureau?

[Guest d'Kong76]

MFS62 wrote: Luck is the residue of design.

Blanche Rickey, right? She was the best!

Centerfield wrote: What is BBB?

Bothersome Boneheaded Blunders, it was brought up in the 'what bothers me' thread.
BP uses bothersome, BR uses bewildering... they're pretty much interchangeable.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Mets and Pythagorus don't really match up well this year. A .500 record with a negative run differential usually implies a lot of close wins and larger losses. The large losses they have: seven of them by seven or more runs [8, 8, 10, 7, 11, 11, 11] -- that's a shitload of extraneous runs-against in just 26 defeats -- and by contrast those losses are offset by only two big wins: [10, 12] On the other side, a better than expected Pythag tends to imply you've grabbed more than your share of close wins, yet the Mets (like you haven't noticed) are now 7-11 in those so it's not like they've been on some kind of unsustainable roll of good luck just to get to the treading water level. Were they in the first two week of the year? ... of course they were, 11-1 type of streaks don't exist without a dose of luck. But I think the 'a run is a run is a run' system named after Mr. Pythagorus can get skewed in this still-small-ish sample of 52 games. It's still just an estimate, not a scientific law.

Going by memory here, but it wasn't so much blowouts as incredibly timely hitting. Maximum gains from big hits. Disproportionately high number of home runs happening with two and three ruinners on, for example. And those blowout losses that are outnumbering the blowout wins -- that's the absolute hallmark of a bad team.

[MFS62]

Slogan:
Vargas and Lugo
We're in this race in a ... Yugo?

Oh well, let's just win.

Later

[Centerfield]

You know, if Conforto and Nimmo are for real (and they absolutely are) then those are two good outfielders to build around. Add Alonso to the mix and you've got a thumper in the middle of your lineup. Rosario is still young with the world of potential. And Plawecki may be coming around. TJ Rivera has a career .780 OPS.

David Peterson has an ERA of 2.06 and a WHIP of 1.04 in his minor league career. 45 strikeouts in 48 IP. Thomas Szapucki will be back from TJ surgery later this year. And of course, we have Jake and Noah under control for a few more years.

Which means that if the Mets could just supplement this young core with a few free agents, they could be terrific. Does anyone know if there are any good 3B and corner outfielders in this coming free agent class?

[nymr83]

Centerfield wrote: You know, if Conforto and Nimmo are for real (and they absolutely are) then those are two good outfielders to build around. Add Alonso to the mix and you've got a thumper in the middle of your lineup. Rosario is still young with the world of potential. And Plawecki may be coming around. TJ Rivera has a career .780 OPS. David Peterson has an ERA of 2.06 and a WHIP of 1.04 in his minor league career. 45 strikeouts in 48 IP. Thomas Szapucki will be back from TJ surgery later this year. And of course, we have Jake and Noah under control for a few more years. Which means that if the Mets could just supplement this young core with a few free agents, they could be terrific. Does anyone know if there are any good 3B and corner outfielders in this coming free agent class?

Machado. Machado. Machado.

[Lefty Specialist]

Would love to have Manny but it's just. not. happening.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think so either, but I hope they surprise us. It would involve moving Rosario to second base, wouldn't it, since Manny has made it clear he only wants to sign as a shortstop.

[Edgy MD]

Offseason worries.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Offseason hopes.

[A Boy Named Seo]

[Benjamin Grimm]

I won't ever advocate "blowing it up" but maybe the wise thing to do is trade Familia and Cabrera. I'd also trade Bruce and/or Cespedes, but that's a trickier proposition because of suckiness on Bruce's part and injury and a no-trade clause for Cespedes.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Sweep the Yankees. No pressure.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I won't ever advocate "blowing it up" but maybe the wise thing to do is trade Familia and Cabrera. I'd also trade Bruce and/or Cespedes, but that's a trickier proposition because of suckiness on Bruce's part and injury and a no-trade clause for Cespedes.

Sandy said as much, that a drastic rebuild won't happen on his watch. But yeah, I agree with all of Familia, Cabrera, Bruce, Cespedes, Ramos (if you could somehow string, like, 4 clean innings in a row out of him). Especially true of Cabrera. He is probably at his peak right now (or maybe a week or so ago). Trade him for useful youngins before he, too, catches the suck.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I want to blow up the offense (never warmed to Frazier especially with Bruce there) could easily part with Cabrera and Gonzo, and retain the starting pitchers. But geez imagine the haul if we dangled deGrom.

[Edgy MD]

Parting with Gonzo is probably not going to be an issue for many. In fact, he's been such a dead man walking from day one, he's sort of like Schröedinger's cat, in that he's simultaneously still a Met and already released.

He's, like, a QUANTUM Met.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah I know and at the same time he's not totally worthless at his price. He's just becoming that way for us as we lose relevancy. But if a contender needs a Vet LH bat, or especially loses their 1B to an 3 week+ injury he might be worth something.

[smg58]

Unfortunately the D-Backs just traded for John Jay -- they had been winging it in right field all season and could have been a suitor for Bruce.

Cabrera -- I think he's already had his best two months with the bat, and his glove is not helping. Sell high while you can, let Guillorme and Cecchini (when he's healthy) handle second.

Familia -- today wasn't the first time that bad luck and bad defense conspired against him. He's fine. That being said, the free agent market will once again be full of relievers, so I wouldn't cling to him too tightly. It's not to early to see what his market is.

Cespedes -- the combination of injuries and a huge salary make it very tough to get more than pennies on the dollar for him. You hope he gets well and stays well, and upgrade other positions in the meantime.

DeGrom -- you're already punting next year if you offer him up. You could get Vlad Jr. in return and that would be a hard sell. Anything less than Vlad Jr. would cause a riot. I think an extension would serve the team better.