So Now What?

[Centerfield]

We are six weeks into the season, and we're pretty bad. A game over .500, but we have a negative run differential. The offense is non-existent. One of the worst in all of baseball. The pitching has been inconsistent, good at times, bad at times, resulting in an ERA right around league average. If things continue like this, we'll soon fall out of the race and likely end up with a losing record.

We've had a few injuries here and there (Plawecki, Swarzak, deGrom missing a start), but for the most part we've been relatively healthy. Even Conforto came back earlier than expected. The optimists said coming into the season that as long as the Mets stayed healthy, they would contend. It doesn't look like that is the case.

I mean, I'm sure they'll play better than they've played during this stretch, but I don't see where we are going to see enough improvement to compete long-term.

Offensively, Conforto, we hope, will pick things up. At .686 he's well below his career OPS of .827. So you figure that will help us out. Jay Bruce will uptick closer to his career average we hope, but he's had off years where he hovers in the low .700's before. Cabrera is actually over-performing and is likely to regress. Frazier, Gonzalez, Rosario, our catchers, I think what you see is what you're going to get.

Dom Smith? Call up Alonso? Make a trade for Realmuto? Maybe if Cecchini were healthy he could fake it at SS.

As for pitching, I don't see help coming from anywhere in the organization. I guess you could try moving Gsellman or Lugo back into the rotation, but then our bullpen would suck.

I don't know. How do we fix this?

[MFS62]

Bring in a Shaman to remove the curse put on the team when they built Citi Field on a Native American Burial Grounds.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Did the Native American spirits not have an objection to the Shea Stadium parking lot?

[Ceetar]

Plawecki coming back will help. As will Frazier, who was very good. Let's hope for no set backs.


Gonzalez will better, as the peripherals are there, or Dom Smith will help.

(stop playing Bruce so much and get more Nimmo)

You gotta hope Rosario shows some of that prospect shine soon, even if it's not by walking, at least by making better contact. When Frazier is back you might have to consider working Flores in more (and Cabrera at SS?), though Flores isn't great.

Vargas isn't good, but he's not bad either. Matz and Wheeler are competitive for the most part. The pitching looks worse than it is because of the Vargas disaster so far and Harvey. Really it's been the offense.

They'll be better though, but it sucks that they squandered the bad start. On the other hand, they went/are going through these struggles and are still above .500 and within striking distance of the Nats. The Nats are flawed, especially where depth is concerned. Scherzer is awesome and probably has been underrated and remarkably healthy.

I think they could use a better infield bench guy than Reyes, but I think the writings on the wall for Reyes and he'll go away soon. Or he'll wake up and have a second half like last year?

There is a lot of time left. But they're definitely squandering some opportunities here, and it's time to get back to playing above average baseball.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

If you want to be optimistic there's more guys expected to improve than regress from here on in, and I'm including Rosario, whose suckiness is real but is magnified by the others' struggles. They addressed the monthlong weakness of the catching situation already and the return of Plawecki could help that along further.

But yeah it sort of gets to the heart of the Mets' problem that so few of their main guys (Gonzalez, Frazier, Bruce, Cabrera and even Cespedes) have "big upsides" -- they are sort of counting on the boring but effective baseball card seasons from them.

If you're ready to shelf Rosario (I'm not; his D is perfectly fine and he and Conforto are the few who capable of posting "upside") then you're just going with another offensive question mark.

I don't believe Vargas will suck all year, and there's Oswalt and Flexy, Gsellman and Lugo, if things get too worse with him. If you want to be super optimistic last year's No. 1 pick David Peterson is off to a good start and he's a 6-6 lefty college-bred start and could come quick (that's what she said).

If you also wanna be optimistic you can dream on Smith or Alonso proving too good for their leagues.

In sum, we need the 5 vets to put up average seasons, Conforto and Rosario to improve, and the catching not to suck.

The pitching has been okay, could be better

[Edgy MD]

And commit to an on-basing (and even small-ball) strategy to offset the feast-or-famine nature of a power-tool offense.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Maybe we have to realize that as constructed, we're not championship caliber and should think hard about blowing it up. Certainty: Ownership is not going to pump Red Sox-level payroll into this team, and maybe they shouldn't. I think we have 1-2 years of peak deGrom left and he'd be the guy I would entertain trading to loot the top 2 or 3 guys from another team's system, like the White Sox did for Chris Sale, getting Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech and some other dudes. I love deGrom, but if we can't get over with him, we're prob not going to get over with him when he starts to decline, and if we could get a guy like Walker Buehler with a pre-hype Clay Bellinger for deGrom, a mediocre team like the Mets that wants to build a long-term winner should prob do a trade like that. Move Yo to a contender and you could land another nice, young piece. Trade Bruce again at the deadline (and Frazier and whatever reliever is pitching well) and try to get a bunch of middling dudes and hope 1 or 2 of em stick. Trade Familia. Trade Cabrera. Trade Dom Smith! Trade em all!

It will be super unpopular, but being mediocre and signing Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce is unfulfilling too. But if we're aggressive and cleared everyone out at the same time, in a few years we could be the Astros 2.0 with young stars all over the field and a rotation led by 30-year old Syndergaard. Then trade him, too.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I like it, a little, but it's too early to make that call as the division is winnable so far, and the Mets to my knowledge have never really committed so hard to a plan like that.

[Ceetar]

That's because it's a bad plan, that could end up meaning 'just suck' for years and years. There's no guarantee prospects turn into a good core. Hell, if Smith and Rosario were as good as once projected we'd be running away with this thing.

But on that same front, the Braves and Phillies rebuild looks okay, but it's not necessarily complete and the Nats window is probably closing. The time seems ripe to double-down. Though that's what I felt like they should do in the offseason with Darvish and/or Ohtani.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Astros 2.0? Intelligent rebuild? This organization is so dogshit dumb, it'll probably sign David Wright all over again when his current contract expires. Eff Wilpon took over in the early 90s and within two or three years, squandered away every last ounce of the Mets good will; it's been a Yankee town ever since. And it's only gotten worse because now, Run For the Hills Wilpon gets to make big decisions as well.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Ceetar wrote: That's because it's a bad plan, that could end up meaning 'just suck' for years and years. There's no guarantee prospects turn into a good core. Hell, if Smith and Rosario were as good as once projected we'd be running away with this thing. But on that same front, the Braves and Phillies rebuild looks okay, but it's not necessarily complete and the Nats window is probably closing. The time seems ripe to double-down. Though that's what I felt like they should do in the offseason with Darvish and/or Ohtani.

Yeah we could suck, or we could be like we've been the last 10 or 20 years, decidedly mediocre with winning seasons about half the time and a few playoff appearances that didn't quite work out. The nuke was great for the Astros and the White Sox are still shitty, but have accumulated a mass of elite prospects that they'll control for a long time. I think it's ballsy to recognize you're not as good as you wish you were and realistic to acknowledge that $100M of immediate spending is not on the horizon. Then when it comes time to spending, an acquisition like Verlander on the Astros makes so much more sense than say, Arrieta on this year's Mets team does.

[Centerfield]

The thought of trading away deGrom or Syndergaard or Conforto is painful right? But yeah, I think you have to commit to one or another. Either go big and spend money and be like the Red Sox/Yankees/Dodgers, or embrace the small market mentality and go the nuclear route.

Like Mr. Miyagi famously said:

"Daniel-san, must talk. Walk on road. Walk right side, safe. Walk left side, safe. Walk middle, sooner or later, get squish, just like grape. Here baseball payroll, same thing. Either spend money, yes, or spend money, no. You do spend money 'guess so', squish just like grape."

I don't know that we're at that point yet. But I agree, once we realize we're not good enough, we should commit to rebuilding. Are we at that point?

[Guest 41Forever]

I'm not willing to concede that this isn't a championship caliber team. We might not be as good as when we were 12-1, but we're not as bad as we were during this recent stretch.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I don't think we're necessarily at that point. This team will prob, hopefully get hot one more good time, and could win 83-86 games. Maybe catch a wild card. Maybe get lucky from there. I don't think they're currently built for sustained greatness (or very goodness) though.

[dgwphotography]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: I don't think we're necessarily at that point. This team will prob, hopefully get hot one more good time, and could win 83-86 games. Maybe catch a wild card. Maybe get lucky from there. I don't think they're currently built for sustained greatness (or very goodness) though.

This is what the Wilponzis want their fans to think. Be just good enough, on the cheap, for some hope. They will never build a sustainable winning team as long as they own the Mets

[Guest d'Kong76]

[fimg=80]https://www.coincommunity.com/forum/uploaded/slockrem/20160127_IMG_20160127_192201.jpg[/fimg][fimg=80]https://www.coincommunity.com/forum/uploaded/slockrem/20160127_IMG_20160127_192201.jpg[/fimg]
What the Mets should have done this off-season is old and boring already.
Why they didn't, couldn't or wouldn't is equally yawn-worthy to me. Backing
up the truck is July talk. It's mid May in both cases.

No one liked the Monday Morning Misery thread? hmpfff

[G-Fafif]

Go 1-0 tomorrow night, that's what.

[Lefty Specialist]

The Mets half-ass it.

They can't commit to a full teardown like Philly or Houston or Atlanta have done because they're in New York. I full teardown would have required 4-5 years of losing, and losing badly. They can't do that in New York.

They don't have the money or roster-building skill to create a sustainable winner, so you get the Half-ass. Where you hope that David Wright will come back or the 5 guys who were supposed to be good actually pitch good at the same time, which never, ever happened. Where you pick an Adrian Gonzalez or a Jose Reyes off the scrap heap. Where an Eric Campbell or Ty Kelly get far more playing time than they ever deserved on a major league team.

Problem with the Half-ass is that occasionally things go right, like in 2015. You then think that justifies continuing on the way you have because maybe this year we'll catch lightning in a bottle again. That usually engenders lots of blah seasons with a team going nowhere.

[Edgy MD]

If Philadelphia is some sort of model of what the Mets should be doing, Ty Kelly has gotten more playing time, while playing worse, with the Phils.

If 2015 is the problem, then give me more problems.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, the problem is 2009-2014 and 2017 with an end date to be determined.

[Benjamin Grimm]

To me, calling for a complete teardown seems overly masochistic. A smart team (yeah, I know) should be able to improve without taking that big backwards step. Nurture your strengths and get the best players available to fill your weaknesses.

[Ceetar]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Well, the problem is 2009-2014 and 2017 with an end date to be determined.

2009 and 2010 were the last ditch efforts to keep the last window open after the injuries started caving it in.

they drafted deGrom in 2010 and fleeced the Giants for Wheeler in 2011. in 2011 they signed Nimmo.

in 2012 they fleeced the Blue Jays for Syndergaard and d'Arnaud and drafted Plawecki. They extended the contract of their Hall of Fame caliber 3Bman. They signed Rosario

They drafted Conforto in 2014. They extended Lagares.

So really that period you're talking about IS the rebuild. They made the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, and were extremely injuried in 2017. They did a lot last offseason, despite it maybe not being exactly what some people think was best, to make this part of the 2015+ window and not the end of it. And it shouldn't be! Conforto, deGrom, Thor, Plawecki, Frazier, Rosario, Smith, Cespedes are all still here. they're all good pieces, and it's unlikely all the rest of them will suddenly be worthless.

We're in the damn window, let's stop pretending they're not good enough just because we're in the middle of a rough patch.

[Frayed Knot]

Also, the "one of the worst offenses in all of baseball" thing is exaggerated by the fact that we're tied for second fewest games played so far this season (and the Saturday rain plus upcoming Monday/Thursday
off days this week ain't gonna help).
Four different teams have played as many of five more at this point while only the two Chicagos have played as few (37) and only Minnesota (36) less, all of which I assume is due to multiple April snow-outs in
the upper midwest.
Anyway, the point being, that if instead of looking just at runs scored (where they're 28th) they creep up to 20th when you consider RS/G - still solidly below average but also ahead of 10 different squads rather
than dredging the bottom ahead of only the ChiSox and Miami.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Ceetar wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: Well, the problem is 2009-2014 and 2017 with an end date to be determined. 2009 and 2010 were the last ditch efforts to keep the last window open after the injuries started caving it in. they drafted deGrom in 2010 and fleeced the Giants for Wheeler in 2011. in 2011 they signed Nimmo. in 2012 they fleeced the Blue Jays for Syndergaard and d'Arnaud and drafted Plawecki. They extended the contract of their Hall of Fame caliber 3Bman. They signed Rosario They drafted Conforto in 2014. They extended Lagares. So really that period you're talking about IS the rebuild. They made the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, and were extremely injuried in 2017. They did a lot last offseason, despite it maybe not being exactly what some people think was best, to make this part of the 2015+ window and not the end of it. And it shouldn't be! Conforto, deGrom, Thor, Plawecki, Frazier, Rosario, Smith, Cespedes are all still here. they're all good pieces, and it's unlikely all the rest of them will suddenly be worthless. We're in the damn window, let's stop pretending they're not good enough just because we're in the middle of a rough patch.

I think you could argue that drafting Nimmo was more of a fuck up, not a clever part of a rebuild. They passed on Jose Fernandez to draft a guy who didn't even play formal baseball in high school. Wheeler has worked well in our favor so far, but I wouldn't call it a fleecing. Good trade, though. I don't know that extending Lagares should be viewed as necessarily a positive move either. I think and hope Conforto will be a great pick. deGrom genius. Syndergaard = fleecing.

We suck. Blow it up. #TrustTheProcess. Sell the Team NOW!!!!

[Edgy MD]

It may have been a fuckup. But the point is the strategic intent.

You could argue that drafting José Fernandez was a fuckup.

[Ceetar]

You can't knock the process in Nimmo and ignore his major league value and also not call the Wheeler acquisition/process a fleecing. They got a talented arm for literally nothing but some sentimental AB.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Edgy MD wrote: It may have been a fuckup. But the point is the strategic intent. You can argue that drafting José Fernandez was a fuckup.

Of all the things the Marlins and their fans regret about Jose Fernandez, I bet drafting him is not one of them.

Ceetar wrote: You can't knock the process in Nimmo and ignore his major league value and also not call the Wheeler acquisition/process a fleecing. They got a talented arm for literally nothing but some sentimental AB.

I'm not knocking the process on Nimmo, but I do think the direction of the franchise might have been better served (in hindsight of course) by drafting someone else who was more of a known quantity. I hope Nimmo shuts me up and gets 2500 hits and becomes Wyoming's most famous citizen while leading the Mets to a bunch of trophies. But Jose Fernandez would've been pretty nice #4 starter in the 2015 World Series, too. All I'm sayin.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I certainly don't regret the team drafting Nimmo. If anything, I lament his marginalization.

But if what constitutes a fuckup is based not on intent but on the eventual outcome, José Fernandez is no object lesson.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Also, the "one of the worst offenses in all of baseball" thing is exaggerated by the fact that we're tied for second fewest games played so far this season (and the Saturday rain plus upcoming Monday/Thursday off days this week ain't gonna help). Four different teams have played as many of five more at this point while only the two Chicagos have played as few (37) and only Minnesota (36) less, all of which I assume is due to multiple April snow-outs in the upper midwest. Anyway, the point being, that if instead of looking just at runs scored (where they're 28th) they creep up to 20th when you consider RS/G - still solidly below average but also ahead of 10 different squads rather than dredging the bottom ahead of only the ChiSox and Miami.

20th in runs per game.

23rd in BA

20th in OBP.

28th in slugging

27th in team OPS.

24th in Stolen Bases

25th in HR's.

Can you win with a terrible offense? Sure. If your team has amazing pitching. But if your pitching is league average and your offense is well below average, you sir, are looking at a losing season.

[Centerfield]

Lefty Specialist wrote: The Mets half-ass it. They can't commit to a full teardown like Philly or Houston or Atlanta have done because they're in New York. I full teardown would have required 4-5 years of losing, and losing badly. They can't do that in New York. They don't have the money or roster-building skill to create a sustainable winner, so you get the Half-ass. Where you hope that David Wright will come back or the 5 guys who were supposed to be good actually pitch good at the same time, which never, ever happened. Where you pick an Adrian Gonzalez or a Jose Reyes off the scrap heap. Where an Eric Campbell or Ty Kelly get far more playing time than they ever deserved on a major league team. Problem with the Half-ass is that occasionally things go right, like in 2015. You then think that justifies continuing on the way you have because maybe this year we'll catch lightning in a bottle again. That usually engenders lots of blah seasons with a team going nowhere.

I think we are getting caught up in some minutia here. This is the point and this is the inescapable reality of being a Mets fan since 2009. Until 2015, one could argue that the approach was one of rebuilding. (Even if they never committed to it the way the Astros did.) What's become evident the last few years is that the team will ever return to its pre-Madoff spending days.