Duda redo?

[Guest 41Forever]

Seeing a number of posts today about the Mets talking to Duda again.

I don’t see a role. Clearly powerful, but plays one position in a non-DH league. If he comes back, that has to be a sign that Dom Smith is either not what they thought or is about to be part of a deal.

Thoughts?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't know how you fit Duda and Bruce on the same team, unless the plan is to have Dom Smith spend the year at AAA. And if Duda gets a multi-year contract, I have to figure that they're trading Smith.

I don't see it happening.

[Edgy MD]

Picking up options on Blevins and Cabrera! Re-signing Bruce and maybe Duda!

If they can reach out to Grandy and Walker and Reyes, it'll be the boldest double down ever! Too bad it's too late to gobble Rivera back up! Get me Fernando Salas on line two!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Peeps forget the offense was actually okay last year. That said if the Mets get Doodoo back I guess that means they're pretty CAHNfident Smith is going to suck.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Peeps forget the offense was actually okay last year. That said if the Mets get Doodoo back I guess that means they're pretty CAHNfident Smith is going to suck.

Or it's a hedge made by a win now team. I'd have no issue with Duda on a 1 year deal, but again, if the resources are limited, there might be better uses.

[nymr83]

if Duda will take one year i'm fine signing him and planting Smith at AAA once Conforto is healthy, assuming nobody else gets hurt. but its the Mets. someone will be hurt.

[Valadius]

I see no point in this. At all. Smith can't get his shot?

[smg58]

It's possible that Duda is available at a bargain-basement price. That might make it worth seeing what Smith could bring back, but we'd probably be selling low on a guy who actually had a very high percentage of hard-hit balls but was criminally unlucky. There's no good reason to think Smith will suck long-term. Demoting Smith is an option, but I'm inclined to think that Las Vegas doesn't help hitting prospects any.

In other words, call me back when the infield is solid, the pitching is much improved, and we still have some cash left over.

[Edgy MD]

"I hope turns out to be a 10-year All-Star. Best of luck to him."
— Lucas Duda on Dominic Smith

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

What a great guy Duda is.

You know, maybe the 5th outfielder/LH pinch hitter can be Grandyman.

Maybe Sandy's weird "unfinished business" remark is his own attempt to prove he'd built an adequate team last year that just happened to have been beset by too much calamity.

I don't actually believe my own theory but I wonder how Sandy truly feels.

[Lefty Specialist]

Duda belongs in the AL, not on this team. Nice guy but too one-dimensional.

[Guest sharpie]

No no no. Move on.

[Frayed Knot]

As I've said before, Duda is getting no more than a one-year deal (maybe 1 + 1 if he's lucky) and I highly doubt it will be from the Mets.
And if by some chance it IS with us I'd see it as a way of delaying Smith by another year (or partial year) but NOT with the idea of jettisoning him.

[Zvon]

Duda, one yr, off the bench pinch hitter/a Smith hedge & Smith needs a day off guy. No OF unless we have a 10 run lead, lol. I doubt he would take that. He should be able to find more playing time in the A.L. no problem.

Always liked Duda. And liked him more as time went by. He worked very hard to make needed improvements. And he learned to shut off the crowd completely. May as well have been empty stands to him. That's important for a guy who hears as many boooo's as cheers.

Unless the Mets know something we don't about Smith I want to see him out there the most. Did he get injured a lot in the minors? Yes, he gets a full shot.

[nymr83]

I like Duda, but give Smith his shot. if Smith shits the bed, a guy like Duda is probably available via trade from someine wanting to salary dump in June, though.

[Centerfield]

I guess this really means no Duda. Or Hosmer or Adam Lind or anyone else.

I know JCL still has feeling for his ex Granderson. Duda was the one I had to fight the urge to text after knocking a few back.

[Edgy MD]

Drunk-Texts to Duda would make a really good blog or social media profile or whatever a Tumblr is.

[nymr83]

Gonzalez probably closes the door on Duda, but if you are an advocate for Smith that is probably a good thing because Gonzalez represents lesser competition/ less of a roadblock for him.

[Ceetar]

I mean, i'd be ecstatic if Smith turns out to be as good as Duda, and if signing Duda for just money doesn't hurt anything budget wise I'd say for it.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Duda seemed like a good guy and a great teammate in the clubhouse, but I was never as enthused with him as most on this board. Duda has tremendous power when he hits the ball, but he is a career .242 hitter that strikes out a lot.

I don't expect Dom Smith to develop the power that Duda has, but I'm hopeful he will hit for a far better average over time. If Smith can hit 18-20 HR a year and hit .275 or better while playing solid defense, I'll take it.

With the signing of Gonzalez, any speculation regarding Duda is pretty much a mute point.

[Ceetar]

33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Ceetar wrote: 33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year.

I would imagine that 33 (or more) first baseman hit better than .217 last season. Two of the best first basemen the Mets ever had (John Olerud and Keith Hernandez) seldom hit more than 18 home runs a season. Not saying Dom Smith will turn out to be nearly as good as those two, but I hope he is more like them at the plate (in discipline and stylistically) and less like Duda.

I for one, am tired of the Mets having a bunch of guys hitting solo home runs. The majority of the line up consists of sluggers who hit a lot of home runs while striking out a great deal. The team needs some good BA/OBP guys.

[Ceetar]

Rockin' Doc wrote: Ceetar wrote: 33 first baseman hit at least 18 HR last year. I would imagine that 33 (or more) first baseman hit better than .217 last season. Two of the best first basemen the Mets ever had (John Olerud and Keith Hernandez) seldom hit more than 18 home runs a season. Not saying Dom Smith will turn out to be nearly as good as those two, but I hope he is more like them at the plate (in discipline and stylistically) and less like Duda. I for one, am tired of the Mets having a bunch of guys hitting solo home runs. The majority of the line up consists of sluggers who hit a lot of home runs while striking out a great deal. The team needs some good BA/OBP guys.

..like Duda.

over the last three seasons Duda's BB% was 29th in baseball. Granderson's was 14th. Those are the things we need to replace next year. It's why Neil Walker is probably the best option.

Duda's wRC+, a weighted metric that measures how much a player contributes to run creation, was 119. 19% better than average and 47 in baseball of the 232 qualifying players over the last three seasons.

Bruce is the slugger with no other skills you're thinking of. the rest of the team is mostly fine in that regard. striking out isn't really a big deal.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Duda did hit .217 for the season last year. It's not as if his 200 plate appearances with the Rays never happened.

I guess it is safe to say that we have different views on how to build a productive line up.

[Ceetar]

well for one, batting average is basically a worthless statistic and I wasn't even looking at it.

[Zvon]

Ceetar wrote: striking out isn't really a big deal.

Ceetar wrote: well for one, batting average is basically a worthless statistic and I wasn't even looking at it.

Tsk, tsk, kids today.
Brainwashed and conditioned by what they are told are the new improved stats and that the old one's were garbage.
Sure, there are better indicators of specific things, but don't be totally dismissing the old school stats. They can be at the bottom of your list, but keep them on your list. You should know better than that Ceets. You're a very intelligent guy.

Striking out isn't really a big deal. Tsk, tsk.

[Ceetar]

yes, I do know better. and i've seen and read the math. batting average is so luck-riddled it's useless for telling anything of value, striking out isn't really a distinctly worse way to make an out. Duda is a very good player.

[nymr83]

Strike outs are pretty much meaningless at the major league level. They are just another out, and hey, you didn't ground into a double play! And you saw 3+ pitches!

I might care about strikeouts in the minors, particularly the low minors, only because i'd be worried that if a guy is striking out a lot against poor competition he won't be ablw to hit higher level pitching at all.


As for batting average... OBP is a better judge of past performance AND walk rate is a sign of a more sustainable skill over a small sample (even a full season) than batting average is.

Given a choice between a rookie who hit .250/.350 and one who hit .350/.350, I would take the first guy every time as I bet he'll be the better player long term as babip evens out.

Edited January 16, 2018 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

If this is so mathematically established, I wish folks would cite the studies that support their positions.

[Zvon]

Ceetar wrote: yes, I do know better. and i've seen and read the math. batting average is so luck-riddled it's useless for telling anything of value, striking out isn't really a distinctly worse way to make an out. Duda is a very good player.

Luck riddled? Explain that.

I dinky hit is a hit, especially in the box score. Example: Dan Murphy had a lot of hard hit balls that were safe hits, singles, doubles, a triple every once in a while, and HRs, and he had his share of dinky hits too. Good hitters have a larger amount of dinky or "just dropped in" hits because they make more contact. Nothing lucky about a batting average when you look at it at the end of a season. If you are over .300 you are a better hitter than many other batters. It's really that simple.

Aside from double and triple plays a K is the most unproductive out there is. A fielder, like Muffy, could muff a grounder. And outfielder could drop a routine fly ball. Unless there's a passed ball or wild pitch involved a K does absolutely nothing, kills rallys, & kills runner advancement. Just because baseball these days is fine with the K & K rate of individual players that doesn't mean, at least to me, that it's inconsequential.

All my opinions and I'll eat my words if you can definitively prove me wrong. I really dig the new stats, I'm not some old guy yelling at a cloud, but I keep a place for the old ones and appreciate them still.

Duda is a very good player.