Free Agent Prediction contest!

[metsmarathon]

Hey folks, it's that time of year when somebody steps up and decides to kick off a free agent prediction contest! woohoo!

i've assembled a list of 25 intriguing free agents - basically the top 20 from fangraphs, four more interesting names, and some dude from japan.

you get to suss out where they're going to wind up! winner gets, um, one cranepooldollar, and a certificate that entitles the bearer to make one new thread in the baseball forum, totally free of charge!*

*contest organizer cannot guarantee the availability of the prize, and merely assumes that the price structure of the CPF will remain unchanged.

and now, without further ado, i present to you the 2017-18 free agent prediction contest!

Rank | Player | Position | Ex-Team
1 Yu Darvish RhSP LAD
2 JD Martinez OF ARI
3 Jake Arrieta RhSP CHC
4 Carlos Santana 1b CLE
5 Eric Hosmer 1b KCR
6 Lorenzo Cain OF KCR
7 Wade Davis RhRP CHC
8 Mike Moustakis 3b KCR
9 Zack Cosart SS CIN
10 Alex Cobb RhSP TBR
11 Neil Walker 2b MIL
12 CC Sabathia LhSP NYY
13 Todd Frazier 3b NYY
14 Jay Bruce OF CLE
15 Lance Lynn RhSP STL
16 Brandon Morrow RhRP LAD
17 Tyler Chatwood RhSP COL
18 Greg Holland RhRP COL
19 Addison Reed RhRP BOS
20 Jarrod Dyson OF SEA
21 Eduardo Nunez IF BOS
23 Jonathan Lucroy C COL
34 Carlos Gomez OF TEX
42 Lucas Duda 1b TBR
-- Shohei Ohtani P/OF(?) JAP

but wait! how do i play?

it's really quite simple. copy the above list and add in where you think the player will sign. you can even indicate if you think a player will go unsigned through the start of spring training, when the contest will close.

i'll tally up the results, make some inane commentary, and award the winner! it's really that simple!

[Edgy MD]

The first six? All Mets.

[Guest d'Kong76]

[fimg=350:3hsb8qha]http://www.kcmets.com/CPF/FA2018.gif[/fimg:3hsb8qha]

[Guest cooby]

Why are you not figuring Cleveland to keep or sign free agents KC? I hope you're wrong

[Lefty Specialist]

Gah. Too much work. They'll have to find their new teams without me.

[seawolf17]

I don't think I've ever gotten a single one of these right.

1 Yu Darvish RhSP LAD BOS
2 JD Martinez OF ARI DET
3 Jake Arrieta RhSP CHC NYM
4 Carlos Santana 1b CLE CHC
5 Eric Hosmer 1b KCR KCR
6 Lorenzo Cain OF KCR SDP
7 Wade Davis RhRP CHC MIL
8 Mike Moustakis 3b KCR ATL
9 Zack Cosart SS CIN SF
10 Alex Cobb RhSP TBR HOU
11 Neil Walker 2b MIL PIT
12 CC Sabathia LhSP NYY SF
13 Todd Frazier 3b NYY NYM
14 Jay Bruce OF CLE PHI
15 Lance Lynn RhSP STL LAD
16 Brandon Morrow RhRP LAD OAK
17 Tyler Chatwood RhSP COL COL
18 Greg Holland RhRP COL NYY
19 Addison Reed RhRP BOS NYY
20 Jarrod Dyson OF SEA BAL
21 Eduardo Nunez IF BOS CHW
23 Jonathan Lucroy C COL SEA
34 Carlos Gomez OF TEX BOS
42 Lucas Duda 1b TBR BOS
-- Shohei Ohtani P/OF(?) JAP TEX

[Guest d'Kong76]

cooby wrote: Why are you not figuring Cleveland to keep or sign free agents KC? I hope you're wrong

There's only two CLE's on there. You don't want Santana on the Mets? He
plays a slick Stratocaster! I don't think the Indians will sign Bruce long term.

Just throwing darts on some of these, others are based on 'reports', etc.

[metsmarathon]

these are guaranteed to be wrong!

Rank Player Pos Ex NEW
1 Yu Darvish RhSP LAD NYY
2 JD Martinez OF ARI NYM
3 Jake Arrieta RhSP CHC CHC
4 Carlos Santana 1b CLE SEA
5 Eric Hosmer 1b KCR BOS
6 Lorenzo Cain OF KCR SFG
7 Wade Davis RhRP CHC WAS
8 Mike Moustakis 3b KCR NYM
9 Zack Cosart SS CIN TOR
10 Alex Cobb RhSP TBR LAD
11 Neil Walker 2b MIL COL
12 CC Sabathia LhSP NYY ATL
13 Todd Frazier 3b NYY KCR
14 Jay Bruce OF CLE CLE
15 Lance Lynn RhSP STL STL
16 Brandon Morrow RhRP LAD NYM
17 Tyler Chatwood RhSP COL MIN
18 Greg Holland RhRP COL SFG
19 Addison Reed RhRP BOS TOR
20 Jarrod Dyson OF SEA STL
21 Eduardo Nunez IF BOS KCR
23 Jonathan Lucroy C COL WAS
34 Carlos Gomez OF TEX SDP
42 Lucas Duda 1b TBR COL
-- Shohei Ohtani P/OF(?) JAP NYM dreaming, I know.

i have the mets picking up a lot of players. mostly, it's because i think the mets are players on a lot of players, and am hedging my bets that they should happen to hit on a few of them. plus, wishful thinking!

(edited to boldify my picks)

Edited November 16, 2017 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Lots of wild guesses here, but why not? There's no penalty for being wrong! (Is there?)

1 Yu Darvish RhSP Dodgers
2 JD Martinez OF Cardinals
3 Jake Arrieta RhSP Diamondbacks
4 Carlos Santana 1b Indians
5 Eric Hosmer 1b Royals
6 Lorenzo Cain OF Mets
7 Wade Davis RhRP Red Sox
8 Mike Moustakis 3b Rangers
9 Zack Cosart SS Blue Jays
10 Alex Cobb RhSP TBR Rays
11 Neil Walker 2b MIL Brewers
12 CC Sabathia LhSP NYY Yankees
13 Todd Frazier 3b NYY White Sox
14 Jay Bruce OF CLE Rangers
15 Lance Lynn RhSP STL Tigers
16 Brandon Morrow RhRP LAD Mets
17 Tyler Chatwood RhSP COL Cardinals
18 Greg Holland RhRP COL Indians
19 Addison Reed RhRP BOS Yankees
20 Jarrod Dyson OF SEA Orioles
21 Eduardo Nunez IF BOS Mets
23 Jonathan Lucroy C COL Phillies
34 Carlos Gomez OF TEX Rangers
42 Lucas Duda 1b TBR Red Sox
-- Shohei Ohtani P/OF(?) JPN Yankees

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

These are fresh out of my ass

Rank | Player | Position | Ex-Team
1 Yu Darvish RhSP LAD Brewers
2 JD Martinez OF Blue Jays
3 Jake Arrieta RhSP Cardinals
4 Carlos Santana 1b Mets
5 Eric Hosmer 1b Royals
6 Lorenzo Cain OF Giants
7 Wade Davis RhRP Astros
8 Mike Moustakis 3b Braves
9 Zack Cosart SS Orioles
10 Alex Cobb RhSP Mets
11 Neil Walker 2b Pirates
12 CC Sabathia LhSP MFYs
13 Todd Frazier 3b Phillies
14 Jay Bruce OF Mets
15 Lance Lynn RhSP Cubs
16 Brandon Morrow RhRP Rockies
17 Tyler Chatwood RhSP Rays
18 Greg Holland RhRP Astros
19 Addison Reed RhRP Cubs
20 Jarrod Dyson OF Royals
21 Eduardo Nunez IF Angels
23 Jonathan Lucroy C Rockies
34 Carlos Gomez OF White Sox
42 Lucas Duda 1b A's
-- Shohei Ohtani P/OF(?) Mets

[metsmarathon]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Lots of wild guesses here, but why not? There's no penalty for being wrong! (Is there?)

this raises a valid concern.

each wrong answer carries with it the penalty that subsequent views and opinions related to player / personnel moves may be increasingly ignored or dismissed by your peers.

so choose carefully!

[metsmarathon]

well, with opening day upon us, it's time to announce the winner of this year's thoroughly interesting and exciting free agent prediction contest!

personally, i'm a little surprised we had enough players signed by now to call a winner. and while we're still waiting for greg holland to find a home, he's not going to turn anyone's fortunes. well, he might save me from an embarrassing gooseegg, but that's about it.

so, fire up the drum roll and get those trumpets blaring!

your 2018 free agent predicting champion is none other than....

KC[/bigpurple]

he flat out killed it this year, netting six correct predictions. he correctly divined the future homes of jd martinez, mike moustakis, zack cozart, cc sabathia, lance lynn, and even eduardo nunez! mighty impressive indeed!

cc sabathia was the only player with multiple correct guessers. though in hindsight, it should have been obvious that no other teams would want him.

john cougar lunchbucket came in second with two correct predictions, adding jay bruce to his cc sabathia.

seawolf and ben grimm both netted one correct answer.

sadly, edgy's prediction of the top six players going metly failed to pan out. and i, apparently, am an idiot whose baseball intuitions are not to be trusted. greg holland and san francisco, you're my only hope!

see below for full results:

rank

First name

last name

position

OLD

SW

KC

EDC

MM

BG

JCL

Actual

Winner

1

Yu

Darvish

RhSP

LAD

BOS

STL

NYM

NYY

LAD

MIL

CHC

2

JD

Martinez

OF

ARI

DET

BOS

NYM

NYM

STL

TOR

BOS

KC

3

Jake

Arrieta

RhSP

CHC

NYM

CHC

NYM

CHC

ARI

STL

PHI

4

Carlos

Santana

1b

CLE

CHC

NYM

NYM

SEA

CLE

NYM

PHI

5

Eric

Hosmer

1b

KCR

KCR

KCR

NYM

BOS

KCR

KCR

SDP

6

Lorenzo

Cain

OF

KCR

SDP

SFG

NYM

SFG

NYM

SFG

MIL

7

Wade

Davis

RhRP

CHC

MIL

CHC

WAS

BOS

HOU

COL

8

Mike

Moustakis

3b

KCR

ATL

KCR

NYM

TEX

ATL

KCR

KC

9

Zack

Cozart

SS

CIN

SF

LAA

TOR

TOR

BAL

LAA

KC

10

Alex

Cobb

RhSP

TBR

HOU

CHC

LAD

TBR

NYM

BAL

11

Neil

Walker

2b

MIL

PIT

NYM

COL

MIL

PIT

NYY

12

CC

Sabathia

LhSP

NYY

SF

NYY

ATL

NYY

NYY

NYY

KC, BG, JCL

13

Todd

Frazier

3b

NYY

NYM

NYY

KCR

CHW

PHI

NYM

SW

14

Jay

Bruce

OF

CLE

PHI

TOR

CLE

TEX

NYM

NYM

JCL

15

Lance

Lynn

RhSP

STL

LAD

MIN

STL

DET

CHC

MIN

KC

16

Brandon

Morrow

RhRP

LAD

OAK

LAD

NYM

NYM

COL

LAA

17

Tyler

Chatwood

RhSP

COL

COL

BAL

MIN

STL

TBR

CHC

18

Greg

Holland

RhRP

COL

NYY

NYM

SFG

CLE

HOU

19

Addison

Reed

RhRP

BOS

NYY

STL

TOR

NYY

CHC

MIN

20

Jarrod

Dyson

OF

SEA

BAL

SEA

STL

BAL

KCR

ARI

21

Eduardo

Nunez

IF

BOS

CHW

BOS

KCR

NYM

LAA

BOS

KC

23

Jonathan

Lucroy

C

COL

SEA

HOU

WAS

PHI

COL

OAK

34

Carlos

Gomez

OF

TEX

BOS

TEX

SDP

TEX

CHW

TBR

42

Lucas

Duda

1b

TBR

BOS

BOS

COL

BOS

OAK

KCR

--

Shohei

Ohtani

P/OF(?)

JAP

TEX

NYM

NYM

NYY

NYM

LAA

total correct

1

6

0

0

1

2

KC