In 1904, Cy Young won 26 games at the age of 37. He had 9.0 WAR. The next two years, he had 7.1 and 1.8. It's tough to sustain, that level of performance. But he found himself again, and in 1907, at the age of 40, he had 21 wins. That year, he achieved 7.3 WAR. He followed that with 9.3 and 3.0. If you guessed that he pulled it off again in 1908, you were right. In 1908, he had 21 wins again, at the age of 41. That (as noted) gave him 9.3 WAR. The next two years, he had 3.0 and 2.2. That's Cy Young --- the greatest old pitcher ever. But even he, when reaching peak performance, had trouble sustaining it, averaging a 48.4% dropoff in productivity in the two years following his 20-win seasons. Let's go on. In 1915, a 37-year-old George McConnell (who?) won 25 fluffernutting games. Twenty-five!! The next year he won four, dropping his WAR from 2.5 to 1.9. (Hmmm...) The year after that, he was done in the bigs. How did he pull that off? Well, his 25 win season happened in the Federal League, which wasn't really a major league. So, this isn't really an illustrative example at all, but I started typing before I realized that his 25 wins were in a dubious scenario. We bounce ahead to 1982. Steve Carlton won 23 games at the age of 37. He had 5.2 WAR. His next two seasons, he had 5.1 and 2.0 --- an average of a 31.7% dropoff in productivity from his 20-win season. Warren Spahn. Spahnnie. Now we're in Met territory. Warren won 23 games in 1963 at the ripe old age of 42. Of course, two were against the Mets and four against the Colts, but what an accomplishment. He wuldn't have known it, but that was good for 3.7 WAR. His next two years, he clocked in with -2.1 and 0.4, a heartbreaking 123.0% decline in productivity over the next two seasons, on average. I could go on: Phil Niekro and his knuckler, Gaylord Perry and his greaser, or Roger Clemens and his steroids, but I have a job, and I hope my point is taken. I want R.A. Dickey re-signed. I love him and want to be held by him when I cry. But any move that considers his sustained level of productivity to be locked in over even the short-term ignores history.