Frayed Knot

Both Minnesota and the ChiSox got their butts kicked last night by KC and Cleveland respectively. That's 5 in a row for Ozzie and his south-siders. Lead remains 1/2 game in favor of the Twins and it's looking like Chicago's rain make-up vs Detroit may have to be played on Monday.

Game will NOT start on time. Raining lightly at the moment and right now they're looking at a 1:25 first pitch although that's obviously subject to change. Make that 1:45

Both the Phils/Nats game and the Cubs/Brewers game are 3:55 EDT FOX telecasts, although those in NYC are getting Yanx/Sawx. If we've already lost by the time these get started then the Philly game becomes meaningless. If we've already won then we can't be fully eliminated no matter what happens. In Philly it's a pair of lefties, John Lannon vs Jamie Moyer (we've lost to both this month) In Milwaukee it's LHP Theodore Roosevelt Lilly (yes, that's his real name) vs Ben Sheets (off his death bed, or something like that)

I'm sure it is. The idea is to not watch your season go down the drain while pitching Joe Sixth-Starter in game 161. It's the only move to make IMO.

Santana (on short rest) vs Nolasco Nolasco vs Mets in 2008 5 games, 4 starts, 1-1 record, 23-2/3 IP, 11 ER, 31 H, 5 BB, 1.52 WHiP, 4.18 ERA - he pitched 3 innings of 2-hit relief on opening day - won a start in May giving up 3 runs in the minimum 5 innings - got an 'ND' in late July giving up 2 runs over 6 - lost in early August after 6.2 IPs of 3 run ball - got an 'ND' in late August, 3 runs over 6 innings Santana vs Fish in 2008: 2 starts, 2-0, 14 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 15 K, 1.07 WHiP, 3.21 ERA - a win on opening day: 7 IPs, 2 runs - a win in late May: 3 runs on 8 hits over 7 IP

Pelfrey - 2.0 Figeroa - 0.4 Wright - 1.2 RMartinez - 0.9 Beltran - 0.5 Church - 0.5

So after a triple-crappiness night, we're reduced to this: 27 possibilities left * 17 of them result in us OUT of the playoffs with a 67.2% chance of that happening * 1 which results in a double play-in game where we play the Phils for the East and the loser meets the Brewers for the WC (3.1%) * 5 where we enter a play-in game for the WC (21.9%) * 1 where we enter a loser-goes-home play-in game for the East Division (1.6%) * 2 where we win the Wild Card outright (4.7%) -- {Mets win 2, Brews lose 2, Phils win 1 - OR Mets win 2, Brews lose 2, Phils win 2} * and 1 where we win the division outright (1.6%) -- {Mets win 2, Brews lose 2, Phils lose 2} So that's: OUT = 67.2% IN = 6.3% Single Play-in = 23.5% Double Play-in = 3.1% IOW, nearly 1 chance in 3 that we're playing beyond Sunday

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Remember the game last year where, on the last day of the season, the Mets and Phillies both had a shot at the division title. (That's the game, I believe, where Tom Glavine fared rather poorly.) I live and work in the Philadelphia suburbs. I went to work the next day and what was everyone talking about? The Eagles! I was gritting my teeth at my desk. This city ends up with a playoff baseball team? Sheesh. There was a situation a couple years ago where the Phils won several real exciting mid-Sept games to put themselves into the thick of a pennant race. So I'm listening to MadDog Russo solo on WFAN on a Saturday morning after one of these Phils victories and he lead off talking about the various pennant races around MLB including spending several minutes on the recent Phils series. He was then flooded with calls from Philly/south Jersey area Phils fans wanting to talk Phils baseball - most of them explaining how their sports station (WIP I assume) refused to take their calls because, seeing as how it was Saturday and therefore only a day before the next Eagles game, they were only taking football calls. I think it was week 2 in the NFL.

]The crazy stuff is when they cut from the studio to a mobile set on the college of BigShot State, "WHERE THE EXCITEMENT IS PALPABLE IN ANTICIPATION OF SATURDAY'S KICKOFF, BRIAN!" The mobile unit isn't just a one-shot deal, they do a whole 2-hour pre-game show from the site of a different game each week plus day-long updates, hilights, halftimes, etc. The crew there always make it a point to celebrate the "campus spirit" in an attempt to insert themselves into an insider status which has nothing to do with them. They are, in turn, treated like visiting rock stars from the camera-hungry students and other hangers-on. Hey, it's worked for Dick Vitale for years. College sports are terrific. I just wish they remained on the college campuses.

Gwreck wrote: I would count on *exactly* the opposite. I suspect they'll wait as long as possible before calling it. And, to be fair to the team, they really have to do that this weekend. Too often in the reg season they fail to call games early on account of some vain hope of not losing a couple of bucks. In this case I'm not going to hang them for that.

Not the best matchup we'd like to see. But our predicament is based at least partially on only managing a 4-game split with them recently. Collin Balester (3-6; 4.83) - Two losses to Philly this year (one in July, one in Aug) vs Joe Blanton (8-12; 4.79) two NDs vs Washington (8 runs in 9 IP) in Aug and earlier this month.

Outplay the Brewers this weekend and we're in - no matter what happens in the Phils series. Starts out at 8PM (EDT) tonight under Milwaukee's dome *on ESPN* nationally. Jeff Suppan going for the home folks - has not fared well in his last 4 starts vs Ryan Dempster - Chicago's already named Game 1 starter. Saturday: Bush (or maybe Sheets, but probably not) - Lilly Sunday: Sabathia - Marquis Cubs leading the series 8-5 so far, although Milwaukee won 4 of the first 6 so it's 6-1 Cubs most recently.

Gwreck wrote: If there is no chance of him being used, he should have had his surgery THREE WEEKS AGO! Sometimes, I wonder what the fuck is the problem with the Mets and their medical staff. Two different things here. One is a medical opinion, the other a managerial decision.

Well, what I'm doing is different than what they've been doing. Yes, theirs is a simulation based on assumptions but so is mine. I'm assuming, for instance, that each game is a 50/50 shot. But is Hamels against the Nationals really 50/50? What BP is doing over and above what I am is factoring in things like future opponents, RS/RA ratios, etc., and doing so when the total future outcomes are still so massive that I couldn't possibly attempt them.

]I was OK with holding Delgado As was I, although Gary in the booth went haywire. 'ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!' ]You're right we'd all be killing Aguayo if Church is tagged out but I don't know how many 2-out hits we were gonna get. As Jerry said he was mad at Church for not having started that play on 3rd base. Yeah, he didn't follow up on the double steal. I wasn't surprised to see him sent on account there being 2 outs, I just didn't see it ending well. Fukudome not only fielded it as Church was making the turrn be he was very shallow when he did. ]The one baserunning play that scared me more than all of those was the cursed Murphy triple. I swear he was losing velocity between 2nd and 3rd and have been an easy target at 3rd but for a bobble on the relay throw. Yup.

]That seemed unjust from previous years so I hope it's not true anymore, if it ever was. That was briefly the case but was changed before it was ever used. ]But aren't there 512 possible outcomes? There are eight possibilities each of three days, and 8x8x8 is 512. 512 different possibilities yes, but only 64 different outcomes. IOW, if the Brewers WIN - WIN - LOSE the result is the same as if they WIN - LOSE - WIN So if you're betting on each game the specifics of how each comes out matters. But seeing as how we're only interested in the total weekend record it cuts down on things considerably.

I only put it on this morning because I wanted to see highlights of the Twins/ChiSox game because there was no SportsCenter on ESPN last night on account of them showing college football. I just wasn't prepared to have to wait nearly 15 minutes to see them. That they led with highlights plus analysis of the game they showed from the previous night didn't surprise me. That they spent as much time on that one game as they did on the three walk-off baseball games combined just shows where their priorities are. It certainly helps that they own the film to the game but, in effect, they're using the game from the previous day as much to promote the entire slate of games they (and their parent ABC) will be showing all day tomorrow as anything.

With all due respect to the Baseball Prospectus project, which is terrific to follow in the final weeks because they take everything into consideration when you & I couldn't possibly boil it all down. But now the combinations of possible outcomes are so few that some smart guy can map them all out. Or even me. So there are (assuming everyone gets all their games in) 64 possible outcomes of this weekend for NL games that matter to us For ex: each team sweeps; or Mets sweep while Phils win twice and Brews get swept; or Mets win once while Phils win twice and Brews win once; etc. Now not all 64 of those are equally likely since 2-1 or 1-2 splits are more likely to occur than a 3-0 or 0-3. But if we assume that [u:e72fba76bf]the outcome of each game is a 50/50 possibility[/u:e72fba76bf], then of those 64: * 18 of them result in us winning the east outright, representing a 22.7% overall chance * in 10 we win the Wild Card free and clear - 14.8% * 22 results in us OUT of the playoffs - 30.5% * 8 put us into a Wild Card play-in game with Milwaukee - 20.3% * 3 put us into a one-game playoff for the NLEast, loser goes home - 4.1% * and 3 more throw us into a [u:e72fba76bf]double play-in[/u:e72fba76bf] situation (3-way tie) where NY & Phil fight it out for the East and the loser plays the Brews for the WC - 7.6% So that's: In = 37.5% Out = 30.5% Single Play-in game = 24.4% Double Play-in = 7.6% Enjoy the ride.

1 division race was decided yesterday (NL West) while one other clinching was denied for at least another day (AL East). Plus 3 other games were played last night involving 4 possible playoff teams and affecting one other, all of which ended with walk-off hits! -- one with a Grand-Slam and two in extra innings. So what did 'SportsCenter' lead with this morning? ... College football. A full 10 mintues worth at the top of the show. Not coincidently it was on a game which they just happened to televise last night.

Twins climb out of a 6-0 hole to tie it in the 8th and win it in the 10th. Now THEY are 1/2 game in front after the sweep.

Twins get 2 in the 8th to tie up the Chisox. A Twins win will def be more fun.

1) you're not violating any thread rules because ... 2) we don't HAVE any thread rules

Elster's answer is pretty much on target. Because you're coming towards home somewhat from the direction of the dugout rather than 3rd base that is your line and Church's dodge around the catcher was barely off from that. The fact that he ran past it and then came back to slap the base isn't a problem.

DO-RE-MI SIMPLE AS A-B-C

I don't think he threw Wright a strike either. I like the IW here. Beltran's a better average hitter and all we need is a single here.