Frayed Knot

Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't know if it's coincidence or design, but they're drafting older players in the later rounds. The first four guys were all born in 1994 or 1995, but the next four were 1990, 1991, 1992, 1991. the 'trick' last year at least was to draft college seniors in the 7-10th round or so because they have zero leverage and will sign for whatever you tell them. You then take that money and give it to the high rounders, or a gamble pick at 11-15 to entice someone away from going to college. Right. It's a by-product of the new (as of last year) 'Overall Cap' system. There's no limit on what you can spend on any one player but there is on the cumulative total of your first (I think it's Ten) rounds. So, like Ceetar said, by going under the recommended 'slot' on some players you can maybe shift what you save over to a tougher sign.

Mets pick twice in the first eleven picks as this thing gets going again in less than an hour - starts with pick #74, Mets pick 76 & 84 Baseball America says that these guys (with BA's pre-draft ranks for them) are the best ones who went undrafted yesterday - for whatever that's worth 25. Jon Denney, c, Yukon (Okla.) HS 34. Connor Jones, rhp, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va. 35. Kyle Serrano, rhp, Farragut (Tenn.) HS 37. Bobby Wahl, rhp, Mississippi 42. Cord Sandberg, of, Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla. 48. Rowdy Tellez, 1b, Elk Grove (Calif.) HS 49. Trey Masek RHP 4YR Texas Tech 50. Andrew Mitchell RHP 4YR Texas Christian 58. Ryan Boldt OF HS Red Wing (Minn.) HS 61. Kent Emanuel LHP 4YR North Carolina 63. Tyler O�Neill C HS Garibaldi SS, Maple Ridge, B.C. 65. Dom Nunez C HS Elk Grove (Calif.) HS 66. Garrett Williams LHP HS Calvary Baptist HS, Shreveport, La. 67. Cavan Biggio 2B HS St. Thomas HS, Houston 68. Jared King OF 4YR Kansas State 70. Chandler Eden RHP HS Yuba City (Calif.) HS 72. Chris Okey C HS Eustis, Fla., HS 73. Tyler Skulina RHP/1B 4YR Kent State 75. Jacoby Jones 2B 4YR Louisiana State 78. A.J. Vanegas RHP 4YR Stanford 79. Michael O�Neill OF 4YR Michigan 80. Jake Brentz LHP HS Parkway South HS, Manchester, Mo.. 81. Trey Michalczewski 3B HS Jenks (Okla.) HS 84. Garrett Hampson SS HS Reno (Nev.) HS 85. A.J. Puk LHP HS Washington HS, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Rany Jazayerli at Grantland sez: 'Abolish the draft!' and points to the current system for international free agents as a workable replacement model. I'm with him all the way, but Bud would never blow up his TV draft day. Very good read. Yeah, TV has virtually nothing to do with it. I doubt the draft show on MLBN (the whole TWO rounds that they actually show) would draw much more than test pattern ratings even if it weren't on opposite both the NBA Finals and one of the NHL semis. It's all about cost control and it's not like anyone makes much of a secret about that. Puig the FA getting $42 million while the younger and better known but draft-restricted Harper netted, what?, $12 or something, illustrates that quite nicely.

This guy is a Cuban defector who the Dodgers signed to a $42 million contract last year, a move that surprised nearly everyone as even the other teams who liked him (and not all did apparently) didn't think he was worth anywhere near that much and most wrote it off as just another example of the then new LAD ownership trying to make a headline-grabbing splash. Anyway, the Dodgers called him up a couple days ago and all he's done in four games is go 7 for 16 with 3 HRs, 1 2B, 9 RBIs, and made a throw from in front of the wall in RF which doubled a guy off 1st to end a game. Last night he hit an 8th inning grand slam in a 5-0 Dodger win over the Braves. Still might not wind up being worth $42mil, but so far so good. What makes this even worse is that the Mets once spent a 1st round pick, and who knows how many hundreds of dollars, on Rich Puig out of Hillsborough High in Tampa (14th overall pick 1971) but his first four games in the majors turned out to be his only four games in the majors and consisted of a line score of 0-fer-10 with one walk. Oh well.

I was thinking when I first heard that Smith came from Serra High School that that school sounded familiar, except it turns out that's because Gregg Jefferies and Barry Bonds were from a different Serra HS, one that sits further up the coast in California.

Baseball America: DOMINIC SMITH, 1B, SERRA HS, GARDENA, CALIF. Area Scout: Drew Touissant PICK ANALYSIS: One of the best pure hitters in the draft class, the Mets continue to go with high-upside players in the first round. SCOUTING REPORT: Smith has been a big name in the Southern California prep ranks for years, and he has justified the hype by continuing to perform at a high level as a senior. He has an innate feel for his barrel, a relaxed approach and a pretty lefthanded stroke, causing most scouts to project him as a plus hitter in the big leagues. He still wastes at-bats and chases at times, and he can get caught on his front foot, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to get away with it at this level, and he has the aptitude to make adjustments. As he spends more time in the weight room and learns to stay back and use his lower half better, he figures to hit for plus power. Smith�s other plus tool is his defense at first base, where he has soft hands, quick feet and great instincts. He can touch 90 mph off the mound, and his arm plays well at first base. It doesn�t work as well in right field, where he is more of a fringy defender with below-average speed. But he can be a Gold Glove defender at first base with enough offensive potential to make him an all-star. The game comes easily to him, and he is so smooth sometimes that he can almost look nonchalant, but scouts rave about his makeup and work ethic. WHERE HE FITS: Smith�s hitting potential may outweigh [last year's top pick] Gavin Cecchini�s overall upside, he�s that good of a hitter. Either way, Smith should rank in the top three in the Mets� system when he signs.

Might not get this one in either. And while we're on the subject, weather for Saturday afternoon ain't looking too swift.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I had some tequila once that was extremely projectable. As in: projectile vomiting commenced after drinking?

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Red Sox take Teddy Stankowicz! So he spurns our offer, goes to JuCo, and improves his draft position (and money) by about 30 slots - meaning it probably works out for him at least in the short run, although maybe spending the year as a pro player would be better for him overall. Tough to know.

Pick number 48 = Andrew Church, RHP, HS in Nevada Sickels: "Extremely projectable, I like him."

What's interesting here is that these are actual photos of Zvon chatting on the CPF

John Sickels on Smith: Smith was seen as a first-rounder pre-season due to his bat speed and strong defense and he's done nothing to change that assessment, ticketed for at least the middle of the round and perhaps sooner. He's athletic at 6-1, 200 and projects to hit for both power and average from the left side, along with excellent glovework, possibly golden. His makeup is also considered a big positive. Committed to Southern Cal, he's certainly signable in the first round. The Mets were linked with college hitting pre-draft, but Smith is about as advanced as you can be for a prep hitter, so this is not a stretch. Jonathan Mayo (mlb.com) The bat is what really stands out for this Southern California high school first baseman. With a terrific approach at the plate and a loose swing, he gets advanced marks for his hittability. Right now, Smith is more of a hit machine, an RBI type, than one who will wow you with his power. There is some pop there, and how high he goes on Draft day may depend on just how much power a team thinks he'll have in the future. He's a very solid defender at first, though it's the fact that some see him as the best pure high school hitter in the class that will get him drafted in the early stages of the Draft.

I don't think the odds of getting this one in are very good.

Most people following this stuff don't know anything either beyond whatever thumbnail sketches they read about leading up to it, that's why you hope that mgmt does. These seem to be the guys most often linked to be candidates (and available) for the Mets' top choice: (in no particular order) D.J. Peterson, 3B-1B, University of New Mexico: Another right-handed college power hitter, Peterson controls the strike zone well and has excellent power to all fields. His 6-1, 205 pound body lacks speed and he may have to switch positions, but his bat is expected to take him through the minors quickly. Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, Washington: High school catching is a strength in this draft and McGuire is the best of the lot, a 6-1, 190 pound lefty hitter with athleticism and excellent defensive skills. His hitting is considered solid and this complete package should take him off the board before the middle of the first round, perhaps even in the top five. Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, Georgia: Often compared to high school competitor Frazier, Meadows is a lefty hitter at 6-3, 210 pounds. His across-the-board tools may be a bit stronger than Frazier's, but his bat has less zip in it and he plays with less energy. He still projects as a major-league regular and is a lock to go in the top half of the draft. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University: A burly-but-athletic type at 6-1, 215, Renfroe took a giant step forward this spring as a power hitter thanks to better plate discipline. He's a certain first-rounder at this point and could go in the top ten under certain scenarios. His strong arm would look good in right field. Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas: Rated as a top five talent pre-season, Stanek has had an inconsistent spring but could still go in the top dozen on the basis of his 6-4, 190 pound build, low-to-mid-90s fastball, hard slider, and developing changeup. He could be a number two starter if all goes well, or a power reliever if it doesn't. and if it's not one of them it'll be ... someone else.

Looks like MLBN is trending towards the football draft route: four hours of coverage tonight (for 73 picks) and that's only after they do an hour of a pre-draft show. OK, so it's not quite as ridiculous as football which would stretch that many picks out to around 12 hours of coverage and commentary over two days, but they're getting there. Real picks to begin at 7PM. Figure the Mets to get on the board with their first pick a little after 8, then their second one (#48) maybe near 10 Mets will then have one of the first picks (#76) when they pick things up again Friday at 1 PM

Oddly, even though the Mets were willing to pay through the nose for free agents such as Wagner, K-Rod and Jason Bay, they were among a group of teams that included the White Sox, Padres and Astros that were notorious for their unwillingness to spend big on the draft. For whatever reason -- most assumed it was the Wilpon�s cozy relationship with Bud Selig -- the club frequently refused to significantly exceed MLB�s bonus recommendations. This often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft as well as players who may have slid due to bonus demands. A perfect example is 2004, when the Mets had the No. 3 overall pick. That year, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew were both seen as two of the top talents in the draft, but both were advised by Scott Boras and were demanding big bonuses. Many clubs were scared off by their demands -- this is how the Padres ended up taking Matt Bush at No. 1 overall -- and the Mets were no different. Weaver fell to the Angels at No. 12 and Drew to the Diamondbacks at No. 15 and held out for almost a year before signing just ahead of the 2005 draft for $4 million each. Philip Humber, whom the Mets took at No. 3, signed for $3 million. That�s a difference of $1 million, or roughly 1/16 of what the Mets are paying Jason Bay not to play for them this year. Per wins above replacement, Weaver and Drew are the second- and third-most valuable players in that class, trailing only Justin Verlander, the No. 2 overall pick. This argument has come to be a favorite of writers over recent years. Problem is it's only partially true to begin with and usually not in the way they think. In the "often meant missing out on blue-chip talent at the top of the draft" quote I like how the word "often" is followed by ONE example which isn't surprising really since it's the only one and even that was is largely hindsight. Weaver was coming off a terrific season in college but there was NOT a consensus that he was the best pitcher in the draft that year with many touting Rice University's 'Big Three' (Humber, Niemann & Wade Townsend who went 3rd, 4th, & 8th ) as better bets in the long run. That it didn't happen that way isn't the same thing as saying it was obvious at the time. It also ignores the fact that the Mets have dealt with Boras in the past (both for amateurs & ML talent) and have gone "over-slot" for some of those picks (Pelfrey for one). Touting Drew & Weaver as clear better choices who were only passed over for money reasons is classic after-the-fact "proof" backed with nine years of hindsight. Where the Mets did show a propensity to "cheap-out" on the draft was by not reaching in later rounds for athletic HS-types who could be good some day but could command more money than their draft slot indicated due to having college scholarship in their back pocket (often for football or basketball as well as baseball). Draft money isn't always based on talent, bargaining power through other options plays a role as well so who got more money doesn't necessarily prove who was considered the better talent. Players like those miss more often than they hit and more often than the "safe" but lower-ceiling college picks they might take instead but at least it gives a club a shot at getting what could be upper-round talent in a later draft (one the kid has several years of college) at what turns out to be a bargain rate. The Yanx got Austin Jackson (who they later flipped for Granderson) that way in something like the 7th round after paying big bucks to forego his hoops scholarship. The BoSox tried to do the same with Pedro Alvarez but he turned down their million dollar offer to go to Vanderbilt and wound up three drafts later going to Pittsburgh as the 2nd overall choice and a $6mil bonus.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: MFS62 wrote: Did some of this thread get lost? I posted something about a week ago, and its not here. (OK, maybe I had a senior moment, so here goes again.) Bud Harrelson is an executive, and third base coach, for the Long Island Ducks. You can follow their games on 103.9 on your FM dial. Later And... today is his birthday! Yup, 69 years old - and I know that without looking it up as Bud was born not just on an anniversary of D-Day but on the actual D-Day

Gee - 3.0 Byrd - 2.4 Recker - 1.4 Wright - 1.4 Lagares - 1.0 Murphy - 0.8

So bailing out of the Met game last night after the 8th inning and not seeing or hearing any hi-light or warp-up shows afterward, I totally missed this one until reading the box-scores this morning. Maybe you did too. In the game in Seattle on Wednesday the killer pitching duel of Dylan Axelrod for the ChiSox and Hisashi Iwakuma for the Ms hooked up and did exactly what you'd expect two no-names to do ... start a game that goes scoreless through the 13th inning. So then in the top of the 14th, off Seattle pitchers #s 6 & 7, the White Sox push across five runs and now merely have to get through the bottom of the inning without running into a freight train. Enter freight Train. The Sox even brought in 'Name Closer' Addison Reed despite it being a five-run/non-save situation. And he gets the first out but then serves up four straight singles (1 run in / bases loaded) before getting out #2 ... and then a TWO-STRIKE/TWO-OUT GRAND SLAM to something named Kyle Seager (who's actually in his 3rd season now and hit 20 HRs last year which with the hitting-challenged Ms makes you the #3 hitter although I've never heard of the dude). Hector Noesi, the Seattle pitcher (former Yanqui property who was part of the big Montero/Pineda deal) who was on the mound for the back half of the 5-run Chicago 14th, loaded the bases with one out in the 15th but escaped. He was still on the mound for the 16th when the ChiSox scored twice to push the score to 7-5 (remember that this was 0-0 thru 13). Reed, [u:3sc6a5dk]still in for the Sox two innings after his 5-run blown-save disaster[/u:3sc6a5dk], strikes out the side in bottom 16 for the White Sox win. 55 pitches in all for Reed who, as Chicago's 8th pitcher, was most likely their last. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201306050.shtml

Swan Swan H wrote: I am watching this deboning in a hotel in Leesburg, VA, and whoever said the Nats announcers are homer suckholes, boyoboy were you right. And keep in mind, as mentioned before, their regular p-b-p guy is away for this series. I ran around the corner to the Greene Turtle for dinner, figuring the game would be all over the place. Way more screens on the Red Sox - Rangers and MLB Network games. I guess it is mostly out of towners. The management did not appreciate it when I jumped on the bar when Recker was up. ESPN is carrying the Sox/Rangers on account of the Softball WS ending a day early, so the bars around there probably have that station on full-time just in case there's breaking Robert Griffin III news. Y'know, like what he had for lunch this afternoon or something.

I'm starting to fell semi-confident about this game to the point where right now I'd put the Mets chances of hanging on at well over 64%.

I think Ike would have been out had he gone which would have left Gee to lead off the next inning, but that's not his call to make. Meanwhile, I think that inning sapped a lot out of the Washington bullpen's Stammen-a

Zvon wrote: Do players get a tobacco rush from chewin that shit? Hell yeah, it's why they chew.

Zvon wrote: Gah, okay, next inning. I want an insurmountable lead! What would that be with this Met squad? Four touchdowns with at least one two-point conversion thrown in.

Dillon Gee-your-back-to-back strikeouts w/two runners in scoring position smell terrific.