Mex17

Mentioned here as a trade option. The idea would be to put him in RF, let Nimmo and Lagares share center, presumably slow walk Cespedes's rehab, and let Puig walk after the one year once Cespedes is completely healed. Would this be a cheap get? https://nypost.com/2018/12/07/breaking-down-pros-cons-of-mets-free-agent-target-a-j-pollock/

What exactly are the rules now if they DFA him after tendering him a contract? That they owe him the league minimum and whoever picks him up has to pay what the arbiter says? What if no one picks him up until after arbitration season? Then what? Or, alternatively, what are his rights as a player who was tendered a contract and then DFAed with regard to getting what he would have received in a hearing?

It's strange to see starting pitcher AAVs going up and up while complete games become more a thing of the past and "bullpening" becomes more of a thing.

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Yah, it's $5M this year and $3.75M each of the next 4 years. it's buried somewhere in CPF land. Then my scenario would then be a $180 million 2019 payroll. It's well under the luxury tax threshold, I can factually state that. The question is if BVW can convince the Wilpons to go there. If he cannot, then maybe they do have to do the Realmuto trade. I don't know. But if I were BVW, I wound insist that Jeter takes d'Arnaud back to even out the money a little. FWIW, the two Realmuto packages that I would consider are as follows. . . -Option A Nimmo, one out of David Peterson/Anthony Kay/Thomas Szapucki, and d'Arnaud for Realmuto and a B/C level prospect. In this scenario, McNeil plays LF, Conforto, shifts over to RF, (Pollock in center) and you sign Granderson back as insurance. -Option B Lugo, Gimenez, and d'Arnaud for the same package back from Miami Here, you keep Nimmo and Conforto right where they are flanking Pollock, and you get Adam Warren to replace Lugo. If Jeter insists upon Nimmo and Gimenez in the same deal I hang up the phone.

Centerfield wrote: I think I read that the $20 million from Seattle will be broken out over time. Source?

Enough guessing, let's crunch the numbers. This is where things stand as of this moment (not counting Wright). . . Cespedes - $29 million Cano - $24 million deGrom - $12.9 million (arbitration estimate) Frazier - $9 million Lagares - $9 million Vargas - $8 million Syndergaard - $5.9 million (arbitration estimate) Wheeler - $5.3 million (arbitration estimate) Conforto - $4.4 million (arbitration estimate) d'Arnaud - $3.7 million (arbitration estimate) Matz - $3 million (arbitration estimate) Plawecki - $1.3 million (arbitration estimate) Alonso - $600,000 Diaz - $600,000 Gsellman - $600,000 Lugo - $600,000 McNeil - $600,000 Nimmo - $600,000 Rivera - $600,000 Rosario - $600,000 remaining 5 spots on the 25 man roster x $600,000 = $3 million That's $123.3 million in committed payroll right now. Subtract the $20 million coming from Seattle and that is $103.3 million. Now let's assume Pollock at $16 million AAV (x 4 years), Grandal at $15 million AAV (x 3 years), and Miller at $11 AAV (x 2 years). That's brings the 2019 payroll to $145.3 million. Subtract the three $600,000 roster spots ($1.8 million) that these three players would occupy and now we are down to $143.5 million. Now let's factor in, in theory, a five year, $130 million extension for deGrom ($26 million AAV. . .$13.1 million more than his 2019 arbitration estimate), and a three year, $30 million extention for Wheeler ($8 million in 2019, $10 million in 2020, $12 million in 2021. . .the $8 million being $2.7 million greater than his 2019 arbitration estimate). That brings us to $159.3 million. That's well within Wilpon range (whether or not we agree with what "Wilpon range" ought to be). There may even be a little more to bring in an Adam Warren type for the bullpen to go along with Diaz and Miller and keep things in the $165 million range. I have confidence that BVW can convince the Wilpons to fork over $165 million. We can afford Grandal and Pollock at the same time. We do not have to pay Jeter's ransom for Realmuto if BVW chooses not to (even though I did want Realmuto at the onset of the offseason). In 2020, we get Frazier, Lagares, and (possibly) Vargas off the books. But we also lose the $20 million Seattle credit, and we will have as of yet undetermined arbitration raises to key players and possibly a deGrom-esque Syndergaard extension to consider. But, if the season is successful on the field (and one more year removed from Madoff), who know what the Wilpons will approve under those circumstances? That is my optimistic take tonight. Who knows what tommorrow will bring?

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Did Fred and Jeff find some Madoff bucks hidden in the couch cushions? Is it possible that there is truth in Jeff's statement that is was Alderson who was recommending the smaller budgets and payouts?

I think that we are going to talk everybody before the dust clears, but now the first evidence of Pollock interest has surfaced. https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-have-been-in-touch-with-free-agent-cf-aj-pollock/301467182

If they trade Rosario for Realmuto and whiff on Machado, the shortstop options that are left from the outside are the likes of Freddy Galvis, Jordy Mercer, Alcides Escobar, and Adieny Hechavarria. Do you think that McNeil can play short?

If the Mets stand pat with deGrom/Syndergaard/Wheeler/Matz, I think that they can stand up with whoever else.

Centerfield wrote: Also, it seems generally things are moving a lot faster than last season. That pretty much needed to happen in order avoid labor Armageddon. I'm sure that MLB Network will enjoy the ratings boost as well. Last winter was awful.

Not sexy, but if they get a big righthanded stick elsewhere, you just slide him into a centerfield platoon with Lagares and leave the corners to Conforto and Nimmo.

Here is one so crazy it just might work. . . Syndergaard and Rosario to Houston for Correa and Forrest Whitley. I think that it could make sense for the Astros because they are more than covered from the right hand side with Altuve, Bregman, Springer, and Guerriel. Plus, Rosario is righthanded too (albeit less established in the majors when compared to the aforementioned four). They need MLB established pitching because they are losing Keuchel and Morton. Verlander/Cole/Syndergaard would be pretty formidable. For the Mets, you get the established and controllable righhanded stick they need (at a position that is far away from the outfield so Cespedes is not blocked if he actually comes back). Then they go out and sign Eovaldi/Happ/Gio/whoever. Whitley, from the site that I am using, is Houtson's #2 prospect. He is #8 in the Top 100 and the #1 RHP prospect. That, to me, sounds comparible to where Rosaio ranked right before he graduated to the majors. Syndergaard and Correa each have three years of team control left. Correa's off year might be a bit of a concern though.

Centerfield wrote: You’re discounting their entire salaries. Of course I am. They are off the Mets payroll and are being paid by Seattle. In turn, Cano is off Seattle's payroll and is being paid by the Mets. I'm not dealing with sabermetrics and speculation here, even if you are. I'm talking only about this deal, these salaries, and math.

smg58 wrote: This assumes that Bruce and Swarzak are completely valueless in the meantime, which is naive at best. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. I'm talking pure dollars and cents and arithmetic.

As I tried to state yesterday, it's "win now" time right now. There will plenty of other draft picks and toolsy 19 year olds out there after the "deGrom window" has closed. We need a solid major league catcher now. To heck with the draft pick.

metirish wrote: A lot of the MLB writers on Twitter are saying this is 5 years for Cano at $63 million once all the $$$$$ are factored in, whatever, hope it all works out Yeah, but is that going to work out in real time once Bruce and Swarzak are actually off the books? It seems to me that it all depends on how and when the $20 million is going to come over. We would not need a penny of it this year since Bruce's $14.5 million (salary plus portion of signing bonus owed in 2019) and Swarzak's $8 million mean that Cano is effectively being paid $1.5 million by the Mets this year. In 2020, you can subtract another $14.5 for Bruce and now Cano is only owed $9.5 million, which would probably be reasonable if you are singing a 37 year old with Cano's track record to a one year contract. So I would be totally fine if Seattle sends us zero dollars over the first two years. That leaves three more years where Cano is owed $24 million per and now you would have $20 million from Seattle to allocate over those three years. The best i can figure it is thusly. . . 2021 (age 38 season): $24 million - $4 million from Seattle = $20 million 2022 (age 39 season): $24 million - $6 million from Seattle = $18 million 2023 (age 40 season): $24 million - $10 million from Seattle = $14 million Is that what BVW worked out? Will we ever know if he did one way or the other? I have no idea.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't understand why the idea of a "teardown" or "bottoming out" is so appealing to so many fans. It just seems like masochism to me. It's absolutely not a prerequisite to sustained success. I want no part of anything like that. https://usatftw.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/10464218_10154263320520431_6241616349984624771_n.jpg?w=1000 https://www.amazon.com/Astroball-New-Way-Win-All/dp/0525576649/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1543667060&sr=8-2&keywords=astroball+book

A Boy Named Seo wrote: $60M coming this way makes me only normal hate it. $20M coming this way is a cocktail of hatred and anger and hopelessness that I will choke on when I drink it this season anyway. But you can't detach that from Kelenec. Either the Mets taking on the money, thereby alleviating Seattle of the financial burden, equates to less players of lesser quality going to Seattle, or Seatlle forking big money over means that they are compensated for that with a top prospect like Kelenic. You cannot quibble over the amount of dollars that the Mariners kick in without tethering Kelenic directly to those negotiations. That is how these types of trades are supposed to work.

If it turns out that the idea here is to absolutely go for broke now, make big trades that empty out the farm (Alonso excluded. . .except maybe in a package with Syndergaard for Goldschmidt. . .that is just one idea that popped into my head) and spend big in order to max out over the next 3 to 5 years, see what you can accomplish while deGrom is still in his prime and Syndergaard/Conforto/Nimmo/Diaz/Matz/Rosario/Alonso are still controllable (maybe Wheeler too if you can extend him a little), and then bottom out Astros style in order to really holistically build the system again with Baird and Guttridge as the primary lieutenants, who would be alright with that? The idea would be that one or two champtionships over that 3 to 5 year period after a three decade drought, if that can be achieved, can provide cover for the real long term work that needs to be done afterwards. Alderson was supposed to do that. He didn't. Now BVW has to, but not until after this run. Who is in on this thought process?

I feel that this topic has been danced around and not really addressed. What can you really expect from him and how does that affect what BVW is trying to do right now? I keep hearing that there is a need for a centerfielder and a "big" righthanded bat. If Cespedes is back around the time of June 1st, is that really true? I think that I can live with Lagares for two months. If you cannot count on that, then what? You figure that third base is now occupied by McNeil even if you want to move Frazier. But can you really trade/bench Frazier in favor of McNeil if you need some sort of pop from the right side? Can George Springer really be had from the Astros or was that just a fan rumor surrounding all the Syndergaard talk? If Cespedes really cannot be counted on, does BVW make a real run at McCutchen or Pollack? How do you feel about those guys? What do you do if you make a bigger acquisition like that and Cespedes actually comes back? Or maybe just get a guy like John Jay who can platoon with Lagares? Or maybe BVW is just playing rope a dope with Machado? Or, if not, do you package McNeil with Syndergaard as further enticement for a third baseman like Bryant, Correa (assuming he can shift over from SS), or a package that is led off by Tatis? You can do that, still get Jay, and not be in a bind if Cespedes returns.

$120M - ($26M for Bruce + $8M for Swarzak +#20M from Seattle) = $66 million. Over 5 years that is a $13.2 AAV. . .too much for a guy who is 36 now. Diaz offsets that, that's fair. Them then getting Kelenic on top of it all skews it too much in their favor.

If the Mariners are only kicking in $20 million than Kenenic cannot be in the deal. Why would the Mets include him if they are taking on $100 million in salary for a guy who is 36? If they are doing that, then the reason for Diaz is as an enticement for the Mets bailing Seattle out of the majority of the contract.

Seriously. Syndergaard and McNeil for Tatis, Mejia, and either Paddack or Morejon.

BVW just threw almost $4 million down the drain. Assuming they get a real catcher, Plaw is more than fine as the backup for $1 million.