I agree with your analysis edgy, but I think the moment of clarity hit even before the bat left his hand. I think an amped up Clemens picked up the bat with every intention at throwing it back at Piazza, and then at somepoint while he is cocking to throw, realizes that a) it is a broken bat, Piazza is holding the handle, it is impossible for him to have done that on purpose, and I am about to look very foolish. If you look closely, he turns his eyes away from Piazza during his takeback and he ultimately throws the bat in front of him, rather than at him.