Centerfield

I think it's helpful to consider why we are getting these leaks. First, Pete's market. There are no other offers that are close. If there were, they would have been leveraged against the Mets offer. There's been nothing. We can reasonably conclude there is nothing currently. So in the absence of actual competitors, Boras is reverting to the only option he has next. Public pressure. He leaked to Duquette last week that Pete was willing to come back on a three year deal, but intentionally did not mention the AAV demand. This riled up the Mets fanbase that a deal was close. The overwhelming sentiment was that for a short term deal, the Mets should "just get it done". Then came the news that they were still far apart in AAV. Duquette, in exchange for the news he was given, was asked to implore Cohen to get involved. Boras knows that Stearns won't budge unless he's made to budge. Since then, Boras has leaked additional info to try to create more public pressure. The Mets have given Alonso a deadline. The Mets made a low-ball offer. And now, he's leaking that the Mets have moved on. Boras is trying to demonstrate to the Mets that losing Alonso will create outrage, panic, and will be terrible for the Mets. I don't think it will work. I picture Stearns just sitting there. Unphased, just sitting on his offer. I think Stearns believes that even if another team comes into the picture and offers more, that the Mets will get the right to match before Pete leaves. And so he sits and waits, knowing he's the highest bidder. And for that reason, I still remain optimistic that the two sides will reach a deal. I don't really think anything has changed simply because Boras decided to make the discussions public. If anything, I think it suggests he's running out of options. I will say this though. Stearns had better be right. Because if Pete gets a higher offer, and out of spite, doesn't come back and ask the Mets to match. Or, if Pete does, and Stearns declines to match, I don't see how Stearns can realistically make up for the loss of Pete with the options that remain. I've said before that I would have blinked long before this. Let's see if he's right.

I take all of this with a grain of salt. The Mets front office doesn't leak. So figure everything you're hearing is coming from Boras, especially since Heyman is one of the guys reporting this. Stearns/Mets don't benefit in any way from news that they are pivoting to plan B. Boras does. The news comes out. Mets fans get outraged. Boras tries to use that to ramp up the pressure on the Mets. When the Soto saga was going on, the numbers were leaked constantly. Because it benefited Boras/Soto to have the numbers floated around so teams would increase their bids. With Pete's side, it's been a week and there's been no release of Pete's demands. This suggests that Boras doesn't want those numbers to be known. I think this is all a negotiation ploy, and that eventually the two sides will agree upon a deal.

Jim Duquette did an interview on something called "Foul Territory". Basically says that Pete and Stearns are in a stare down. Pete wants them to come up to his number and Stearns doesn't feel the need to bid against himself. Duquette suggested that Cohen may need to step in. No numbers from either side were mentioned.

Still not a peep on the Alonso demand. I'm guessing the demand must have been stupid high from Boras/Pete.

I think the 93.3 number is speculation from writers for the Athletic. I haven’t seen that it’s his actual demand yet.

Two days later and there are no reports of the numbers being asked. Curious.

I saw a Heyman clip posted by NY Post sports. Summary: ---There's a "good chance" of a reunion ---Spent some time advertising Pete's accomplishments (6 years, more HRs than anyone other than Judge). ----"Not a certainly, there are other teams involved" ---"They haven't met the price yet, there's some more compromising to do" ---It's only Jan. 10. Half the free agents haven't signed, Bryce Harper signed in February, so did Prince Fielder. They got big deals. ---A lot of teams are looking at shorter term deals with opt outs for Pete ---More than a month to go before Spring Training Basically, he ran through all the points Scott Boras would want him to cover. If I'm reading between the lines, it kinda sounds like Boras is pushing back on this leak, or at the very least, didn't want this information out there, and sent Heyman to try to pry back some leverage.

I have no idea if Jim Duquette has any credibility on stuff like this. I don't remember him having any inside knowledge, but I also don't remember him being wrong about stuff like this. If it's true, I'm guessing it's just a matter of time until a deal is hammered out.

Which was exacerbated by Pete publicly stating how much he'd love to be back. Basically he told other teams they'd be used as negotiating pawns. He's so goofy and loveable. Part of why I want him back.

I hope this is the case. The key will be whether another team enters the mix. If no team ever shows interest, then Pete has one and only option. If another team comes in with a 3 year offer, then I think BG's contract is more likely. I would think there would be some team interested in a 40+ HR bat on a 3 year deal, but what do I know.

I'm here too. I think this is the most likely result. I think it's possible that someone may enter the picture on a short term deal, but I think only the Mets would extend to that fourth year (and option years) and that will ultimately be the difference. Also, I think Pete would prefer to come back if everything else was equal.

I would argue (and I think Stearns would agree) that deals given to other players in the past have nothing to do with the type of deal Alonso should get. No matter what Boras may say. The only thing dictating Alonso’s deal is his market. And specifically, what any other team is willing to give him. And that’s why Stearns won’t budge unless another suitor comes along.

Of the other landing spots mentioned: 1. Giants: Alonso makes no sense for the Giants. They have 1B prospect Bryce Eldridge. He's their top prospect (#35 overall) and has the potential to be a masher. ETA is 2026. If the Giants are interested at all, I can't imagine they want anything other than a short term deal. 2. Angels: The Angels also have a top prospect at 1B. Nolan Schanuel is not as highly rated as Bryce Eldridge (#95, MLB Pipeline), but he's already made his debut. An article recently suggested that the Angels might consider a position change for Schanuel if they signed Alonso, but there's no one suggesting that this might be a possibility other than that one article's author. The author: Jon Heyman. 3. Mariners: Seattle certainly has a need for offense, and has a hole at 1B. But Seattle just doesn't really play in this end of the free agent market and are said to be looking to shed salary. I guess in theory these guys are a possibility, but the likelihood of Jerry DiPoto suddenly deciding to give an over 30 declining 1B a long term deal doesn't seem all that high. I was thinking that another factor working against Alonso might be the idea that other clubs believe that whatever they offer, the Mets will match anyway. So why even bother.

By the way, Carlos Baerga is now speculating that the Mets have interest in Anthony Santander. I wasn't really interested in Santander as a Soto alternative, but might be at least a conceptual fit as an Alonso alternative. In many ways, he's the same type of hitter as Pete. Low average, big power hitter. He gets on base less than Pete, but he's a switch hitter, and hit 44 last year. He's the same age as Pete (both entering their age 30 seasons). Like Pete, he's not great defensively, but has played some 1B in the past. How effectively, I have no idea. Newsday says the Mets made an offer to Teoscar Hernandez on a 2 year deal, so it looks like Stearns is not shy about bringing in another corner OF and mixing and matching at DH. Signing Santander could mean the Mets move Vientos to 1B, then try to mix in some of the younger players at 2B/3B. Alternatively, Santander could try playing 1B. I'm skeptical that this is anything more than a backup plan in the event Pete walks, or perhaps it's just leverage to bring down his price.

It's funny how much that HR in Milwaukee changes the perspective. If he doesn't hit that HR, I wonder if there would be this overwhelming support to bring him back. I like Pete. And I'd even be willing to overpay a bit to bring him back. I know that isn't necessarily the best baseball move, but as a fan, the people who wear the uniform mean something to me. And Pete is a loveable player and a terrific person. And I think there is value to a home grown guy who spends his whole career as a Met. 30/90 is fine. So is 4/100. Opt out after 1 in each of them. I wouldn't be upset if Stearns took it to 5/125. I just don't think he will.

Does anything typically happen during this week between Christmas and New Year's? I'm guessing baseball execs are sitting on a beach or next to a fire or something. The interesting thing about this lack of market is that I originally thought this next contract was an opportunity to lock up Pete for the rest of his career. It's becoming increasingly clear that this won't be the case, and that Pete is looking at going back to the market again, whether he takes an opt-out or not. I guess for him the best case scenario is for him to stay productive so he can get a Christian Walker type deal in a few years. If I were Stearns, I think I'd be inclined to offer Pete 4 years guaranteed. 4 years, $100M, opt-out after year 1. Those four years take him to his year 33 season, and even among big bodied RH hitters, 33 can still be a productive year. So maybe the best bet is to offer 3 years/90, or 4 years/100 and see which one Pete takes. Opt out after 1 in each of those deals.

I don’t think I have what it takes to be a GM. I would have blinked by now.

So Alonso won’t be signed by Christmas. Which probably means nothing will change until January. I’d love to see where the parties stand as of now. I’d guess the Alonso camp is now in “what deal can we take and save face” mode.

Nathaniel Lowe traded to Washington. Nats now out on Alonso.

Goldschmidt signed with the Yanks. Naylor traded to Arizona, and then Cleveland turns around and signs Carlos Santana. Basically all 1B options are just about gone now. (Other than Pete)

And somewhat related to this, I also wonder if his performance would not be improved with the occasional off day. Or at least DH for the day.

Pete's off year doesn't seem quite as bad if you look at OPS+ 2019: 147 2020: 122 2021: 133 2022: 146 2023: 123 2024: 123 Basically you can count on him to be in the 120s during his down years, 140s during his good years. By comparison, Bregman: 2022: 134 2023: 122 2024: 118 A case can be made that Bregman is declining worse than Pete. And for good measure, Christian Walker 2022: 126 2023: 120 2024: 116 Walker and Bregman give you better defense, but neither give you as much offense as Pete.

I think Pete's situation is kinda disconnected from Soto and more about his projections. I think Stearns has a number in mind and won't go beyond that. I don't know what his number is, but for me I'd be good with 5 years. $130-135M. If he gets an offer beyond that he's likely gone. I just hope he makes up his mind quickly before the Mets go with another option.

I don’t see any reason this couldn’t happen.

MLB Trade Rumors' prediction was fairly close to this. 5 years, $125M. And in their podcast, they felt that this was on the high side. If this is the case, I think the price works for the Mets, but maybe not the timing. As BG said earlier, Pete likely holds out, and by that time, the Mets have moved on.