Centerfield

My speculation based on nothing but my imagination: *The Mets' offer was for 3 years, around $24M per year ($72M). Alonso/Boras were probably looking for 3 years, $30M per year, with opt outs each year, the Bellinger-type buyouts, and maybe even front-loaded. Without any other offers to compete with, the Mets didn't move, and hence the long standoff. *After the Cohen rant, I'm guessing Alonso/Boras dropped the buyouts and came back to the table. Then the sticking point was the AAV (24 vs. 30). Instead of meeting in the middle with AAV, Cohen/Stearns finally gave in and said we'll give you $30 AAV, but for one year, and removed one guaranteed year from their deal. They presented both options to Pete. 3 years, 72M, 2 years, $54M. Pete chose the two year deal since his intent all along was to opt out anyway. Things I have a stronger basis to believe: *All of the information given to Andy Martino and Jon Heyman come from Boras. They both broke the Soto signing at the same time, they both broke the Pete news at the same time. They both pumped the "Mets have pivoted away from Alonso" BS at the same time. Once Boras went silent, they were completely in the dark. As soon as the deal was done, Boras gave them the info and let them break the news simultaneously. *the Mets never pivoted away from Alonso. *Pete was never going to the Blue Jays. And all that 10 yard line crap was Boras propaganda.

It seems almost guaranteed to end up there next year, doesn't it? It seems like it. I’m glad he’s back. And I’m not sure it was on the table, but I would have preferred overpaying AAV and locking him up for 3 years. If 3/90 with no opt outs was possible, I would have preferred that. Again. I don’t have the discipline Stearns has.

And the Mets sign the damn guy.

I watched segments from Andy Martino (SNY) and Jon Heyman (Bleacher Report) today. It's funny. Neither of them have any idea what is going on. They're absolutely guessing. If the situation wasn't so exhausting, I think I'd better appreciate the comedy of two guys being shoved in front of a camera with nothing to say and air time to fill. So what that means is that Scott Boras has stopped leaking to the press. His last attempt at leverage was that ridiculous "10 yard line" garbage that he fed to Andy Martino the Thursday before Amazin' Day. But ever since Steve Cohen made his public statements, the only thing the Boras camp has leaked is their immediate response that their demands were industry standard. It's now been 10 days of nothing. When Boras was doing his propaganda, you could read the tea leaves and see what he was trying to do. But with this complete silence, it's anyone's guess. When Boras first went silent I wondered if maybe Pete took over negotiations. And if he did, I figured something would get done quickly. But if Pete did take over negotiations and we still don't have a deal, then maybe the two sides were further apart then we thought.

Maybe Boomer meant next Friday.

Oof. Point taken.

why would you think that? He's not a journalist, he's a guy paid to have takes. Right or wrong, doesn't matter. People are gonna tune in Monday, pay attention Monday (well, if our dictator hasn't turned off radio signals) and give him even more attention. Well, he’s not just a talk show host. He’s Boomer Esiason. He’s a Super Bowl QB and a bona fide celebrity before he ever started broadcasting. And no, he’s not going to lose his job for being wrong, but something like this erodes at his credibility. And as an athlete, a former QB, he’s egotistical enough that being right matters to him. He had plenty of chances to hedge in the clip I heard Friday. He was firm and confident, and said something about his information being 100% solid. So I’m just wondering what happened. The possibilities I guess are that he’s full of **** and did it for engagement, he was fed bad info, or the intel was good but something changed. I’m saying given who he his the first possibility seems unlikely. But what the hell do I know.

You would think he wouldn’t come out that confidently without good info. I really wonder what happened here.

I listened to the clip. It's available on the Audacy app. Search WFAN and then Boomer and Gio. He definitely says this belief is based upon conversations he had. He said he's confident, and the information is solid.

Speaking of Boomer Esiason, he tweeted that Pete and the Mets should reach a deal today. Sounds like he got some intel.

That's right. I forgot that it was a fan email he was reacting to. In any case, to anyone listening, it was clear that this was speculation for fun. Roberts was laughing throughout the segment. As an aside, I think Evan Roberts is the one person I enjoy listening to on WFAN. I've heard his podcast, and I think Mets fans would think it's worth the listen. WFAN is unlistenable 90% of the time. I've listened to Boomer and Gio a few times. I can't stand Boomer. He's a know-it-all blowhard. The ego is insufferable. Picture Francesa without the talent. Gio comes across as smarter than your average host, but his frat boy humor just doesn't do it for me. Sal Licata and Brandon Tierney are a waste of time. They are the epitome of dumb guys shouting dumb things into a microphone for engagement. The exception, at least for me, are Evan and Tiki. I think both are smarter than any of the other guys, both of them give interesting takes, and although it does devolve at times into some frat house stuff, this is the one show I find I don't immediately turn away from.

Evan Roberts is a talk radio host for WFAN. He does not hold himself out to be a reporter in any sense. I heard the clip that's being referenced. In the audio, it's clear that it's his speculation, and that he's painting this scenario for fun. He's not claiming that this is what actually happened, and certainly not blaming Nimmo in any real sense.

From they Heyman article (it's behind a paywall): So if you assume Heyman is getting everything from Boras, what could Boras possibly gain by leaking this? It certainly doesn't help him with his negotiations with the Mets to say Pete is desperate to go back. I don't think he's saying this to leverage the Blue Jays. Because why would the Blue Jays' up their offer if Pete only wants to be in NY. I wonder if Boras is leaking this to protect Boras. "Yes, I'm a great agent, and I could have gotten him a great deal, but Pete went around telling everyone and their mother that all he wanted to do was go back to the Mets. I did the best I could given I had no leverage." In other words, maybe it's inevitable that Pete winds up back with the Mets on their own terms, and Boras is pre-emptively laying ground for his excuses.

Per Jon Heyman, the Mets and Alonso have reengaged in discussions. It’s in his latest article in the Post. I don’t see how leaking these discussions helps Boras. Except that maybe he felt embarrassed after Saturday and wants to make it seem like Cohen came back to them.

I’m kinda surprised there’s been no movement after the public statements on Saturday. I was expecting something to break today. I guess not. Since like mid-December I’ve checked this board and Twitter hoping and expecting to see some movement on Alonso. I’m now thinking it’s not going to get resolved until Spring Training begins. Ben Grimm called it in October.

So after Cohen's adamant rejection of the structure of the Alonso deal, Boras fired back yesterday through Will Sammon. Speculation is that the deal presented by Boras to the Mets is similar to that of Cody Bellinger. In addition to having opt-outs after every year, that contract provides that the club is responsible for buyouts if the player elects to leave. Bellinger's deal contained a provision that if he opted out after 2024, the club owed him an additional $2.5M. If Bellinger opts out after 2025, the player is owed an additional $5M. It's not hard to see why Cohen would have an issue with that kind of structure. It's mind-boggling to have to pay a buyout when the player elects to leave. And not surprisingly, the Cubs found themselves having to unload that contract this winter. Again, this is just speculation, but if that's true, I can see the Mets holding firm and refusing to accept that. On the other hand, if Boras removes that "pay to leave" feature, I can see public pressure swinging back to Pete's side to give in more on the AAV. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm still optimistic. I think Cohen's visible frustration yesterday shows how much he wants Pete back. And I think Boras' immediate response suggests that Cohen's words had the intended effect. I think they're still each other's best option.

Ichiro is a Hall of Famer. Anyone who doesn’t recognize that doesn’t deserve to vote. I disagree with so much of the HOF process/voting that I try not to lose any sleep over it. But some things are just dumb. I remember a few years ago some idiot writer tried defending his non vote. I think it was Rickey? The stupid logic applied made me regret giving him the attention.

Right? This is why I think all of the info that's come out these last few weeks is straight from the Boras camp. If anything came from the Mets, they would have leaked the Boras demands that are outrageous (or at least, what they view as outrageous) and then all public sentiment would have swung back to the Mets. Here's what I think happened. The Mets don't leak. They don't comment on ongoing negotiations other than giving the stock response they've decided was appropriate. "We love Pete. We made a fair offer. We haven't moved away from him. We hope he comes back to us." This is what he said at the MLB event on Wednesday, and this is the answer David Stearns gave when asked today. But Cohen seemed agitated when he sat down for the panel and the crowd was chanting "we want Pete". Then, when asked, David Stearns gave the stock answer, and the crowd booed him. And I think Cohen got pissed. I think he looked at the crowd, and he thought "You know, maybe that Boras propaganda is working more than I thought". So he decided to go off script and counterpunch. His answer was much more honest and confrontational and provided a lot more info than Stearns' answer, which preceded his answer by just seconds. He basically said yes, we want Pete back. But his offer sucks and it's unfair. And I'm not doing it. I love that he said this was his personal feeling, and didn't use the royal "we". I think this was intentional so that everyone who's been saying "Cohen is going to have to step in" got the message loud and clear. And I think he left no doubt that if Pete wants to come back, he's going to have to change the structure of the offer. He did say he would be flexible. And he did leave the door open, but it was clear he's not doing the deal on the terms presented to him. Then he added the piece about the expenses. He said he's adding players to this very expensive team. And as time goes by, there may be no room to bring back Pete. It's the first time he's ever said anything along those lines. Stearns have obviously never said anything like this. And I think that was his message to Pete and Boras. The offer's not going to be there forever. So go ahead and look. But he's done being patient. And then the crowd cheered. I wonder if Boras heart dropped when he heard that. For the record, I don't believe Cohen when he says that there may not be room in the budget for Pete later on. But I think he had had enough, and decided it was time to send a message.

Wow. Steve Cohen just eviscerated the structure of the demand from Alonso/Boras. Called it asymmetric against the team. I have no idea what he’s objecting to but he made it clear he’s not bending on that. Sounds like he feels he made a fair offer to Pete and Pete will have to accept it if he wants to come back.

I just saw a clip of a panel at Amazin Day hosted by Gary Cohen. It had Stearns and Cohen sitting at it. The crowd was chanting “We want Pete”.

The Blue Jays rumors were flying yesterday. Tim Healey from Newsday and Andy Martino both reporting various degrees of progress. Martino going as far as to say talks were on the "10 yard line". That pretty much got shut down with the Jays' beat writers Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith shutting it down by saying there was no momentum and nothing was close. Today, Pat Ragazzo from SI says that Pete Alonso met with the LA Angels. I wonder if the Angels rumor suggests that the Blue Jays leak is a dead end. Again, I go back to the real money breakdown of the Santander contract. Will Toronto really offer significantly more money to Alonso than they did to Santander?

It's tough to know what Toronto will do. It's said they are desperate, and desperate teams do crazy things. And that's why they remain a threat. But let's assume for the sake of discussion that they are logical. They just gave Anthony Santander a 5 year, $92.5M deal. Per Ken Rosenthal, that deal has $61.75M deferred! For CBT purposes, the union views the present value at $68.6M ($13.7 AAV). One would think that the Blue Jays would not be willing to spend more than this on Pete, given that Santander is a switch hitter, coming off a better season, plays OF (better positional fit), and is about 20 lbs lighter. And, of course, discussions with Pete are taking place after the Jays have already secured Santander. So logically, Toronto would not sign a player, then offer a similar, but lesser, player significantly more money. $68.6M is obviously less than the 3 year/$70M offer the Mets were rumored to extend to Pete (no deferrals in the Mets offer). Also, Toronto has higher taxes. So Pete would take a hit there as well. So as of now, even if Toronto extended the same offer to Pete as they extended to Santander, Pete would have to take less money to leave the Mets. So really, there are only a few scenarios where Pete leaves to play for the Blue Jays. Scenario One: This is what I led with. Toronto does something crazy and offers Pete a significantly better deal than they just gave Santander. Five year deal, no deferrals, higher AAV. If that happens, then Pete is gone. Scenario Two: The Blue Jays offer Pete a similar deal to Santander (with deferrals). But Pete/Boras accept it because it's five years and has a higher gross number. It allows Pete/Boras to save face and say that Pete beat the Mets offer both in length, and in total money, even if it means less in actual money to Pete. I don't really see Scenario Two as realistic. So basically, it all comes down to whether Toronto goes a little crazy or not. Fingers crossed.

Alonso signs with Jays. "SEE I WAS RIGHT" Alonso doesn't sign with the Jays. "SEE I WAS RIGHT"

He didn’t offer much. Said he’d love to have Pete back. Hopes it will happen. Someone said “so we’re not out on Alonso?” He smiled. Kinda chuckled? Said don’t believe everything you hear in the media.

I didn't say there was a fuss over it. I said the information was leaked. Yes, parties can divulge information. If they do it publicly, it's a disclosure. If they do it anonymously it's a leak. I'm of the belief that parties leak information with intent. When I wrote about the "fuss" over these disclosures, I was writing about you. I thought you were making a big fuss over these disclosures. Which is fine. That's what makes these boards interesting. But to me, these leaks or disclosures or whatever are one big nothing-burger as far as I'm concerned. I don't think there was any strategy or chess game being played by the release of that info. I think that it's somebody privy to the negotiations deciding to disclose some of that info to the press anonymously and nothing more. I never thought the disclosures were going to cause the Mets to crumble or fold or to weaken their bargaining position. And more importantly, I never thought that the Boras/Alonso camp ever thought that, either. It's just info being released. Any reasonably sentient fan knows that without knowing Boras's demands, the info is practically useless anyway. Me personally, I don't think these talks are dead and there's a very good chance that Alonso and the Mets finally come to an agreement. I say this because Alonso wants very badly to remain a Met and everybody knows this. Alonso has made no attempt to hide this. If the Mets offer was unreasonably low, some other team would've topped it by now. Yeah, I was trying to communicate (clearly not effectively) that I thought all the disclosed info was a bunch of nothing. Basically that neither side had budged. As you put it, I agree it's all a big nothing burger. I disagree that the Boras camp released it with no intent. I think Boras figured let's roll the dice and see what happens. There are plenty of owners that would cave to public pressure. And as recently as a year ago, Cohen might have been one of them. I also think Boras wanted to signal to other teams that the Mets were out. If there is a perception that whatever bid is offered would just be taken back to the Mets, I think Boras was trying to get out in front of that. I'm also in the camp that the Mets and Alonso eventually come to an agreement. My only real concern is that the Blue Jays do something crazy and the Mets decline to match.