Centerfield

I'm not big on Moustakas either. But yeah, somebody. If we get Joe Smith, Jason Vargas and Brandon Phillips, we're toast.

Guys, this is like Luis Castillo without the walks.

Edgy MD wrote: Dom Smith will likely be the starter. I'm not banking on that though. Preston Wilson and Carlos Gomez and Scott Kazmir have certainly demonstrated that top prospects may make it though the minors as Mets and still get traded just as they've ripened on the vine. The team may feel like two young comers in the lineup is one too many. Lefty Specialist wrote: But this is doodling on the margins. This team needs a blockbuster, shake-em-all-up deal that I don't think Sandy's capable of. With a weak farm system (that wasn't really improved dramatically by all those fire sale trades last year), we're probably looking at another dreary season. This type of move could really help. Smith has value. And could bring back a productive part. Opening up 1B would allow us to sign Hosmer, or even re-sign Duda. I just think that in order to really contend, the Mets have to be flexible and creative. Passing on the elite players because they don't fit is lazy. We went out and got Piazza even though we had Hundley. Went to the World Series. We went out and got Beltran even though we had Cameron. Went to the NLCS. We went out and got Cespedes even though we had two corner OF's already. Went to the World Series. I think you have to get elite players when they are available.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: There's no way I'm spending a big chunk of a limited budget on a closer. That's fair. It's certainly not the only way to improve the team. Where would you spend the money? And are you ok with the budget being limited? John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: That's what Omar Minaya would do, solve last year's problems next year. But isn't that what any GM should do? It's not like those bullpen problems will just go away. The Mets were 29th in bullpen ERA. And then they traded away their best reliever. Familia coming back will help. But Ramos is badly overrated. That alone isn't going to get it done. Plus, I don't know that Minaya was as bad as we thought at the time. His regime has been more successful than Sandy's. And he left behind the cornerstones of our next World Series team. John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: How funny is it that two guys the Mets might be keen to pick up this year are Joe Smith and Jason Vargas. They were pissed away years ago in a stupid-ass hunt for relievers that of course was little more than a show of acknowledging that the bullpen sucked the year before. Stupid Omar! But yeah, trading young pitching is risky. Much easier to just sign relievers.

Sure. If we had Duda and Bruce and Walker and Granderson and Addison Reed. It’s closer. Though to be honest, we probably still lose. But they’re all gone now. How do you make that up?

Do we even have room in the budget for ghosts this year? I feel like you are just going to replace them with old guys and hope we don't notice.

Ashie62 wrote: A straight Nimmo/Lagares platoon works for me. It's going to take a recovery of the pitching staff to contend in 2018. In that event, we have a cheap effective combo in CF. Sure. No one is disputing that the pitching has to be better. But so does the offense. Did you not see the offense we just saw in this post-season? Did you read my post above about the playoff teams all having top offenses? http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/seasontype/2 Take a look at this list. Teams ranked by run scoring. Does it strike you that those teams at the top have something in common? Sometimes I wonder if we watch the same games. I'm watching HR's flying out of the park. Leadoff hitters mashing 400 foot bombs. Scores of 13-12 against great pitchers. Guys up and down the lineup posting OPS's in the high 800's. And we think Lagares/Nimmo, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith, Cabrera is going to get it done? We would have had no chance. If the Mets had been magically placed in the World Series, we would have gotten smoked. Except for deGrom starts we would have lost 25-0 against these teams. And in the deGrom starts we would have lost those too, but the score would have been closer until the bullpen came in.

And for the record, I'm not saying that the Mets should just automatically go with Smith at 1B. I just think that this is what they will do. It's easy. It's the Joe Bloggs answer. And creativity is not really Sandy's thing. I would love if the Mets could be bold enough to say, "You know what, Eric Hosmer is exactly what this team needs. ", then go out and get him. (and really, he hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, plays great D, he really is exactly what this team needs) But we won't. We won't even think to do this. Instead, in a year where we are supposed to contend, we will give first base to the fat guy who hit .198. And no, if you sign Eric Hosmer, it doesn't mean you're "giving up" on Smith. He was a top 50 prospect last year. I'm sure he has trade value. And if there are no takers? Put him back at AAA. The kid is 22. It won't kill him to get another season under his belt. Where maybe he can work on his conditioning a bit. He can be dealt at the deadline, or next winter, or be insurance in the event Hosmer gets hurt.

I'm rooting for Nimmo to be real too. In fact, I like what I see. Good OBP, pretty good looking swing, and I think the power will develop. But I don't think he's a centerfielder, and I don't think he will produce enough to warrant a corner position. So basically the guy is an unknown offensively and defensively. Man. If only we could have had a month and a half of meaningless games where we could have tried him out in CF. Anyway, my point is, you have to get some offense somewhere. The top 8 run scoring teams made the playoffs. The ten playoff teams were in the top 12 offensively. You have to score runs. The Mets were 19th, and much of that production came before the selloff. You have to make up that difference somehow. JD Martinez would do a lot to make up that ground. So would Eric Hosmer. Jay Bruce too, I guess. But none of these fit where we have holes. And I think the Mets will use this excuse to justify not pursuing the top flight talent. Our holes are CF, 3B, 2B and catcher. And frankly, there aren't great options out there. So I have no clue what Sandy Alderson will do. Unlike the pitching, there are no clear answers. If we go with a platoon of Nimmo and Lagares, CF will be a position where realistically, the best we can hope for is mid .700's in OPS. Same for shortstop, first base and catcher. Combine that with our pitcher, and that's more than half our lineup. If Conforto and Ces are the corner outfielders, that leaves 2B and 3B for your offensive upgrades. I don't see who we could get that meets our needs. When you project this lineup against the two teams we were just watching, it's light years away.

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think the team is light years away offensively. They were seventh in the league in OPS+, despite missing much of their firepower for much of the season. They tied for the lead league in homers. Bruce and Walker and Duda are gone from that group, so replacements will have to come. (Every team, of course, will have the pitcher in the lineup, and the Mets pitchers hit better than most.) It may be that Lageres may not still have it, or that he can't stay healthy, but his productivity in 2013 and 2014 was real. It was real when he was healthy this year also, it just wasn't as obvious because most of his value was tied up in his defense, but the metrics are there. I really want Nimmo to see regular playing time, or incoming guys to be OBP-first guys, to complement the power. I'd be perfectly satisfied with a Nimmo/Lagares platoon between Conforto and Céspedes, assuming everyone is healthy. But that's the rub. And for all I know, Conforto won't be at full strength any time soon. And if that's what the Mets expect, they certainly need to shop accordingly. They were 19th in runs scored, 14th in OPS. So either they were unlucky, or unclutch, or couldn't move runners over or something. But they were not close. I'd like high OBP to complement the power. But they traded away a lot of that power. So now we need that too. If you go with Lagares, you are leaving 2B or C as places to find both OBP and power.

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively. A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that. the Astros were light years better than everyone offensively. The Dodgers had a wRC+ of 104. the Mets were at 100. that means the Dodgers were merely 4% better. The Nats were also at 100, which actually means we're operating from a rather neutral standpoint in terms of our competition. I don't know what this means. I know that Washington scored 819 runs, and the Mets scored 735. So Washington scored 84 more runs than the Mets. This seems like a lot. I also know that a lot of the guys responsible for those 735 runs are gone. So that makes the gap even larger.

Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively. A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that.

Is it Scott Boras that makes the grocery store aisle comments about the Mets? I guess we'll find out early if we are shopping in the steaks section or the clearance aisle.

seawolf17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter. I'd prefer good players though, and neither of those qualify. Bruce was .254/.324/.508 with 36 HR, and Walker was .265/.362/.439 with 14 HR. Neither one is a world-beater, but you could do a LOT worse, especially considering they're both in their early 30s. I would be okay with either or both returning. I have minimal interest in Gordon. And the thing is, the Mets are pretty unlikely to do much better. JD Martinez? Would be nice, but what are the chances?

The racist gets to celebrate again. America in 2017. Congratulations to the 24 Astros that did not make dickhead racist gestures, and especially to our own Carlos Beltran.

Frayed Knot wrote: 3 HRs (in 231 ABs), a diminishing glove, a .287 OBA, and maybe the slowest non-catcher in the league just ain't gonna cut it. Meanwhile we are about to hand our job to a guy who had a worse OBA, and would lose a foot race to Adrian Gonzalez. More HR's though. I really hope Dominic Smith works out. Funny though, he could just as easily hit .230 as he could .330 next year.

I would guess that lists like this started before everyone was familiar with the minor leagues. So it serves the purpose of introducing you to guys you may not know. Rosario and Smith, if you tuned into the games, are known entities. Going back to the rankings, I hope I'm wrong but not only do we not have "blue chips", but the dropoff after the first few seems pretty steep. But who knows right? Dan Murphy was never highly rated and is hitting like an MVP.

Look, not that this is any sort of big deal, but if the idea was to start clean, promoting the guy who was assistant to the guy we just had is not a very inspiring choice.

Well yes, I don't see them doing it either. But it's winter, and I was referring to what I hoped the Mets would do. If I had to guess, I'd say we get Luke Gregorson, and Lance Lynn, and one guy like Cameron Maybin to play CF. Maybe we bring back Neil Walker. But who knows. The Mets have money to spend. It could be a very exciting winter.

Highest contracts to FA closers: https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/sports/mlb/2016/12/07/largest-contracts-for-relief-pitchers/95109688/\ 1. Aroldis Chapman 2. Kenley Jansen 3. Mark Melancon 4. Jonathan Papelbon 5. David Robertson 6. Francisco Cordero 7. Craig Kimbrel 8. BJ Ryan 9. Mariano Rivera (2008-2010) 10. Billy Wagner 11. Mariano Rivera (2001-2004) 12. Andrew Miller 13. Francisco Rodriguez 14. Darren O'Day Of those 14, I would say only Melancon and BJ Ryan (2 good years out of 5) were busts. Some of them, including Melancon, you have to see how they play out, but for the most part, the returns were pretty good.

And for the record, AJ Ramos is terrible and makes a shit ton of money. That's why he was available. Ok. Maybe not terrible, but he's not very good. Top 15 in MLB in saves: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/seasontype/2/sort/saves AJ Ramos comes in at #14. Of the top 10, Alex Colome of Tampa has the highest WHIP (1.20). Ramos has a 1.41 WHIP. It is the highest of the top 15. In fact, only Kelvin Herrera was close (1.31) Everyone else was 1.20 or lower. He was 13th in ERA. He had the 2nd most amount of walks. His 34 walks were second only to Corey Knebel of Milwaukee, who had 40 (but threw 18 more innings). I think you may be right that Sandy has felt he has addressed the bullpen issues, but he absolutely has not.

I don't see them spending a huge chunk of their allowance on a FA closer, especially since that method seems to bust as often as it hits. You may be right about them electing not to pay a big chunk of money, but the second part of that statement is not true at all. According spotrac, here are the top paid closers this year: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/closer/ 1. Aroldis Chapman $21M 2. Craig Kimbrel $13.25 M 3. Greg Holland $13M 4. Zach Britton $11.4M 5. Kenley Jansen $10.8M 6. Wade Davis $10M 7. Jeurys Familia $7.425M 8. Cody Allen $7.35M 9. Brad Ziegler $7M 10. Mark Melancon $7M Not included on this list, since he is not a closer, is Andrew Miller at $9 million. Of these 11 pitchers, 2 were busts. (Ziegler and Melancon). Ziegler and Melancon ranked 10th and 11th in salary. Another two (Britton and Familia) were hampered by injury. Britton was good when healthy. Familia struggled but regained some form toward the end of the season. The other 7 were the best in the game. Further, the seven highest paid relievers, the seven pitchers making $9 million and above, are arguably the best in baseball. In fact, it seems like there aren't many roles as reliable as closers, when it comes to big money.

Edgy MD wrote: It's tough to sign a reliever who has been closing games when he and his agent know you already have a guy with that assignment. Closing is how they enhance their résumés. If you want to get an active closer to be your other closer, you generally have to trade for him, a la AJ Ramos. That could happen, but I think it's more likely that the Mets will be trying to shore up the setter-uppers, rather than the back end. I think the idea would be to sign Davis to be our closer and move Familia to the 8th. Plus you figure Wade Davis is 32 years old and probably won't be all that marketable at the end of his contract.

I think so. Kenley Jansen got 5 years, 80 Million last year. Mark Melancon got 4 years, 62 million. Figure Wade Davis is right there with those guys, has a championship on his resume, there are fewer closers on the maket this year, and "bullpenning" is a real thing now.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The focus should be on 1) a solid mid-rotation starter we can pencil in for 200 ip; 2) another closer to pair with familia; 3) solid bats at least at 2 of following 5 positions: 2b or 3b (with Cabrera at the other spot), Cf or Rf (with Conforto at the other spot) and C, with at least one of the bats being of the contact/ob%/ top-of-the-order variety. This is pretty much what I've been thinking too. I suspect that they'll let d'Arnaud and Plawecki compete for time behind the plate, but an upgrade, if they can do it, should be on the table. But I would like to see them import an infielder and an outfielder and hopefully they won't both be sluggers who strike out 150 times per season. I'm on board with this too. And I think the Mets will look to do just that. Add a starter, add a back end reliever, and add 2 bats. What remains to be seen is the level of talent they bring in. With the amount of money that came off the books, there is no reason the Mets can't shop at the top of the market, especially in the bullpen. Wade Davis will cost about 4 years, $75-80 million. I think they can stomach that. Not sold on Dickey as the additional starter. Maybe a guy like Jason Vargas. The Mets need one top of the order OBP guy. One guy who slugs a bit.