smg58

Indians, although I will root for whoever wins in the ALCS.

Ceetar wrote: Grandal is almost definitely a huge get, and should be on the list. If they don't get him though, rolling with d'Arnaud/Plawecki isn't the worst thing if you've upgraded the offense elsewhere. Plawecki is pretty league average with maybe a hope for some late development because he's a catcher. d'Arnaud can kinda hit, sometimes? if he's healthy. I dunno. Nido was overmatched this year, but could he hold his own a little more next year after some more minor league reps? (thinking post d'Arnaud injury) Don't forget Wilson Ramos, too.

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Second half offense was 'fine'. We don't really have as far to go as it might seem. The plummet in June was extreme, and is making everything else seem kinda worse. Even just one great hitter, like Machado, and some talented platoon type bench guys would make a world of difference. The pitching is/can be pretty great. Even a lot of the disasters of the middle of the year were bullpen blown ones. Hold down those early leads and things look a lot different. Also, not a few of those blowups were attached to the Mets going to the pen early when they didn't have to, to preserve recovering arms. He also used bullpen back-enders in high-leverage situations, when the featured guys hadn't been overused, but were being held to a strict innings pace. (Gsellie smelted down the last month anyhow, but hey, first year as a big-league reliever and all.) Hopefully that won't be as necessary in 2019, and Callaway will be at least a little more aggressive with innings. I think the handling of the rotation was exactly what it needed to be at the time, but there was too much quantity and not enough quality in the pen. Alderson got a bunch of relievers at the 2017 deadline, but none of them were ready to start the season in Queens and there was not a good reason to think that any of them would be (Rhame had decent AAA experience, but he turned out to be the worst one of the lot). The best bullpen pickup over the last year and a half as of now appears to be Zamora, who cost us Josh Smoker. There were good bargains out there to be had (The Giants got Tony Watson for 3 years and $9M, the Astros got Hector Rondon for two years and $8.5M), but Alderson seemed content over the offseason to trust what he had beyond bringing in Swarzak. I think Basholor, Drew Smith, and Bobby Wahl have a chance of stepping forward next year, but I wouldn't trust them with more than one spot.

Vic Sage wrote: According to Spotrac, Mejia is a UFA this year. I don't think they'll be bringing him back. Flores is an Arb3, as is d'Arnaud, who will both be FAs after next year, so they'll probably non-tender d'Arnaud; maybe Wilmer, too. I can't see d'Arnaud coming back at all. I could see Wilmer being brought back at $5M over two seasons, not $5M for one. (And with arthritis, I think he will be lucky to get that.)

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson? It's off the top of my head. Isn't Keuchel still good? I thought he was a top of the rotation guy. Forgot about Donaldson. But hasn't he fallen off? Donaldson has been hurt. Because he was traded to the Indians, he has a few extra weeks to showcase where he's at right now. Donaldson had a higher WAR than Machado in each of the previous five seasons to this one, but he's six years older. The physical might be more important with him than with most free agents, but unless you have Nolan Arrenado or just signed Machado, why wouldn't you take a look?

Frayed Knot wrote: The Cubs have been held to one or fewer runs 39 times* this season (Mets = 36) or just under 1/4 of the time. They don't just want Lester to continue to deal, they very well might NEED him to. * 11 times shutout plus 28 games with only one run scored including the play-in game loss on Monday which put them into this do-or-die situation You look at the performance of their lineup as a whole, and you wonder how that is even possible. Just flukey, or is their more to it than that?

Gwreck wrote: They did also trade for a 25 year old future star who proceeded to put up 7.6 WAR. It's entirely possible that a lot of luck was involved, but their GM pulled all the right levers last offseason. Ceetar wrote: Chacin had a higher xFIP than Vargas. Which tells you everything about xFIP that you really need to know. Ceetar wrote: In any event, Vargas is as meh as any of 'em, he's probably a fine 5th guy as long as you both have reasonable depth guys and a better team around that. Mets still owe him about $10 so he either puts up more numbers like the second half or you just cut him. I was actually very happy with the way Vargas finished the season. I don't consider the rotation to be a concern.

Chapman has pitched 50 innings in each of the last two seasons, Davis got off to a very rough start in Colorado, Jansen has some medical issues and is having trouble keeping the ball in the park, Melancon had an injury that cost him half of two seasons and compromised him in the other halves... it's not a safe bet. Relief pitchers who can give you an ERA below 3 are easier to find than that.

If I were a betting man, I'd say they add $10M to this year's payroll, which will leave them about $30M (making rough guesses on arbitration and including the 75% of Wright's contract) to play with. That's not a whole lot, but I hope I'm wrong. The key is spending well. The Phillies spent way too much on Jake Arrieta and gave Carlos Santana an amount that, considering what other first basemen got and that any defensive value he provided was negated by moving Rhys Hoskins to the outfield, was simply embarrassing. The Brewers, on the other hand, found the right guy to invest in (Lorenzo Cain) and spent less for two years of Jhoulys Chacin than we did for two years of Jason Vargas. And now they're the top seed in the National League. So don't just throw money at people, be smart about it.

I'm trying to figure out where I was in March that I completely missed this. I would have been overly optimistic.

Machado playing shortstop was less about him wanting to play shortstop and more about him wanting to maximize the number of bidders. I doubt seriously he will leave money on table over it.

It's not that Harper can get lost so much as we really don't need another left-handed corner outfielder. I suppose you could argue that's he's played some center, but the outfielders the Mets currently have all had a better year defensively (at least according to the Fielding Bible and Fangraphs). Conforto had a comparable year in 2017, and Nimmo had a better year this year. You could plug multiple much bigger holes for what Harper would cost. Or you could go for Machado instead. If we can afford to pay somebody $210M over seven years, then we can afford to bench Todd Frazier. That would be nice and simple.

Frayed Knot wrote: Jones came up with Seattle and got his first 32 ML hits for them. Now THAT is an easy thing to forget.

HahnSolo wrote: Pedroia Pedroia and Wright have a lot in common, the most obvious being that if you don't follow their team, you would have assumed they retired a while ago.

In Alderson's defense, he was handed a broken team and got to the World Series in fairly short order. And, notwithstanding the irony that it wound up hurting more than helping, he wasn't afraid to pay to keep the team's key pieces in Queens. You can definitely be critical of a few things (the Brewers paid less for two seasons of Jhoulys Chacin than the Mets paid for two seasons of Jason Vargas), but the injuries were not his fault.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Is he throwing Sandy Alderson under the bus? Wilpon declined to offer specifics on the Mets' budget or offseason plan, putting both under the stewardship of the incoming GM. He similarly said that many of the Mets' more austere policies in recent seasons, including their relatively small analytics department and their hesitance to spend on premium free agents, were due to recommendations from outgoing GM Sandy Alderson. He's mostly throwing Alderson under the bus. I do think Alderson was reluctant to pull the trigger on long-term commitments, and not just for short-term payroll concerns. But it's clear enough he worked within the restrictions of the budget he was given.

I agree that Bruce doesn't fit, but I think you have to be prepared to go with him if you can't do better in return for him than a middling prospect and eating half his contract. Now I think his performance after his return (.243./.344/.467) was comparable enough to reasonable expectations that it shouldn't come to that, but you need to hold on to your leverage if you're trying to work out a deal.

Is Rougned's Odor in the CPF? And who runs the Pawnee Drunken Savages? Thanks to everybody involved (especially for letting me get Jeff McNeil for $3) and congrats to the winner. He took his lumps last year (grabbing an abandoned team, IIRC), but he took full advantage of all the unspent money he had coming into this season.

It's a fair question. Rosario brings speed, and good things happen when he gets on base, but can he get on base often enough? Nimmo's .400 OBP has to be in the top 3, to be sure, and McNeil seems too perfectly suited for the #2 spot to consider anybody else there. I'd go Nimmo/McNeil/a righty not currently on the team/Conforto/another righty not currently on the team (at least not on the 40)/Bruce/Rosario/a righty who might currently be on the team/the pitcher.

Adam Jones?

I imagine the hardest part of any minor league coach/exec's job is telling somebody like Burdick that he's done.

Edgy MD wrote: Markakis was the star of hope for David Wright, now four years past his spinal fusion surgery and going strong with his best season since 2011. There was a recent article that suggested that the Mets should learn from the Bruce signing that signing players in their 30s comes with an increased injury risk. Ignoring the obvious fact that most free agents are in their 30s, the Braves got rewarded for giving four years to a very comparable player to Bruce -- except he was known by the Braves to require neck surgery when they signed him.

We can sign him for less if we feel so inclined. But I'm not sure what his role is if we'll have a right-handed first baseman and he's no less of a question mark going forward than Cecchini and Rivera are. I don't think the outfield is a viable option if his running ability is compromised (and was low to begin with).

He would have gotten over $5M from an arbiter, so non-tendering him was a real possibility anyway. While the arthritis might explain his nosedive in production over the last month, I'm really not sure there is a remedy for this.

The shift is single-handledly preventing boring, one-dimensional swingers from completely overrunning the game.