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Gwreck

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Everything posted by Gwreck

  1. Gwreck
    I’ve got bad news for you about Williams. I agree with the broader point though: the bench options are thoroughly unimpressive if Baty and Vientos and Baty are everyday players.
  2. Gwreck
    13 hitters will make the team. 11 spots locked: Alvarez, Polanco, Semien, Bichette, Lindor, Robert, Soto, Torrens, Baty, Vientos, Taylor 2 spots open with this as the competition: Carson Benge Vidal Brujan Ronny Mauricio MJ Melendez Nick Morabito Jared Young
  3. Gwreck
    Strictly a depth piece and should make the major league roster only if Benge isn’t ready.
  4. Gwreck
    11. His only Mets postseason appearance was in Wild Card game 2, the one the Mets won that year.
  5. Gwreck
    Did these get moved to a new location?
  6. Gwreck
    There are some very specific rules for MLB salary anrbitrstion about the players who can be used as comparisons, who must have corresponding service time, and so forth. In most circumstances, neither Manaea’s salary (nor many others’) would have been a relevant data point. Skubal had an advantage because there is a rarely-applicable rule that if a player has “special achievements” (here, the back-to-back Cy Young awards) than the pool of comparators can be expanded. But in any circumstance, the $19M was still way too low, and probably harmed any chance of settling (if they had filed at, say $23 or $25M, Skubal might have thought twice about going through with the hearing).
  7. Gwreck
    Skubal won the hearing and will be paid $32 million this year (versus the Tigers’ proposed $19M).
  8. Gwreck
    I view it as the Tigers looking to make a push one more time before Skubal leaves in free agency. Weak division and Skubal - Valdez - Flaherty is a very credible playoff rotation.
  9. Gwreck
    A not-well-reported piece of information I came across today: Day-of-game parking at Citi Field will rise to $50 for the 2026 season ($40 for season ticket holders). Compare to last year when it was $40 ($27 for season ticket holders); and 2022 ($25 for everyone). While this probably isn’t a make-or-break expense for most people, it simultaneously seems like the kind of thing that people really focus on…
  10. Gwreck
    Awful Announcing reporting that Keith said on Laura Albanese’s podcast that it’s a reduction from 110 to 91 games.
  11. Gwreck
    Gelbs has never replaced Keith before and I doubt they’d start now.
  12. Gwreck
    I didn’t know the Mets gave Seaver 2000 and 2015 NL Championship rings. I wonder why - maybe just because he is Tom Seaver?
  13. Gwreck
    Plus also Marcus Semien! If that guy brings nothing else, gold glove-caliber defense on the Mets is something we haven’t seen a lot of recently.
  14. Gwreck
    They light up and shake hands when a Twins player hits a home run. One of my favorite parts of that park.
  15. Gwreck
    For what it’s worth, Britton/Sammon’s first opening day roster projection has Kimbrel making the team (remember that Minter will start the year on the IL). https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998072/2026/01/26/mets-roster-projection-lineup-pitching-staff/
  16. Gwreck
    Good call. 30 is his Baseball America ranking (not MLB).
  17. Gwreck
    Williams is #30 overall.
  18. Gwreck
    Does having better farm/development system make it more likely that top-ranked prospects turn out to be good players? Not sure. I get that it is more likely to have a higher quantity of top ranked prospects. It’s not like the Mets were the only ones who thought Alex Escobar or Delois Guerra were top prospects — they had top 50 overall rankings from Baseball America. They just didn’t turn out to be good MLB players. This is probably a research question for someone with more time than me but tracing prior prospect rankings to some major league stat (say, WAR) would be fascinating: what is the median WAR for a #10 prospect? Do some systems turn out prospects that more frequently turn into good players? Etc.
  19. Gwreck
    As for the Cano/Diaz/Kelenic deal, it was a debacle because (a) if the Wilpons only had limited money to spend, taking on Cano’s contract was idiotic and ( acquiring 35 year old players coming off PED suspensions is so stupid that it makes me question the judgment of anyone involved in the decision.* Just seeing this in print makes me irate all these years later. The fact that the Wilpons could have actually this is baffling, even for them. I realize Van Wegenen has never worked again as a GM and that’s probably the right outcome if he actually believed this. ___ *It’s not exactly analogous — as the PED suspension was much further in the past vis a vis the acquisition, and he was 3 years younger at the time of the acquisition — but the 4 year deal for Marte after 2021 maybe should also have been avoided.
  20. Gwreck
    I didn’t include Kelenic here because he didn’t wind up “hurting” the Mets by becoming a good major league player elsewhere. I was doing an exercise to evaluate the classic trade scenario, not unlike the Peralta deal: exchanging young, unproven talent for major-league ready players. Sometimes that young, unproven talent becomes pretty good. Most of the time not, and thus there only a few truly regrettable trades: prospect becomes good while Mets get little or no value.
  21. Gwreck
    Over the last 40 years, I count only 3 seriously regrettable trades concerning the prospects lost: 1. Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick, 2000. Admittedly with some benefit of hindsight. 2. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, 2004. No hindsight required, it was dumb at the time. 3. Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javy Baez, 2021. (I’d guess I’d also consider the July 2002 deal for Reed/Middlebrooks that gave up Jason Bay). Whether the deals worked (Leiter, Piazza, Delgado, Cespedes, Lindor), didn’t work (Alomar, Cano), or worked but didn’t make a difference re: playoffs (Viola, Santana), the Mets weren’t burned on the prospects lost.
  22. Gwreck
    This is probably worth a different thread but the number of former Mets prospects with meaningful 2025 time in the majors elsewhere is actually pretty small: Pete Crow-Armstrong, 6.0 WAR (Javy Baez) Simeon Woods-Richardson, 2.2 (Stroman) Jake Mangum, 1.1 (Jeff Brigham/Eleiser Hernandez) Andres Gimenez, 1.1 (Lindor) —- J.T. Ginn, 0.5 (Bassitt) Amed Rosario, 0.3 (Lindor) Butto, 0.0 in 21 games in SF (Rogers) Gilbert, -0.3 in 39 games in SF (Rogers) Jared Kelenic, -0.5 (Cano) Colin Holderman, -0.8 (Vogelbach) —- Endy Rodriguez (Lucchesi), -0.5 in limited time for Pittsburgh Rhylan Thomas (Stanek) had 10 PAs for Seattle Kenedy Corona (traded for Jake Marisnick in December 2019) had 4 PAs for Houston.
  23. Gwreck
    This is a reasonable deployment of prospect capital. Williams is totally unproven and Sproat has a tiny sample size in the majors. Maybe they’d be on the roster and capable of making meaningful contributions in 2027 or 2028 but also maybe not. And as noted, this isn’t a gutting of the system, it’s a strategic deployment of assets. I wish that Skubal would have been available for these chips but this isn’t bad.
  24. Gwreck
    Lockout, not strike. Players aren’t going to be the ones forcing a labor stoppage.
  25. Gwreck
    Couple of thoughts: I’d be substantially more excited with this lineup if Pete Alonso was at first and Polanco at DH. As constructed, it feels like the team is short one impact bat. I suppose Vientos playing like he did in the second half of 2024, or Robert playing like he did in 2023, or Semien finding the fountain of youth and playing like he did 3 years ago, or Alvarez breaking out for a full year and staying healthy could happen. As it stands, this looks like a lineup for an 85 win team. I could see Baty hitting sixth to break up the string of righties at the end. I also think Semien will hit higher in the lineup than Robert. Baty in left seems much more likely than Polanco in left but neither option is appealing at all. If Benge isn’t ready, then maybe another lefty bat is an option (Mike Tauchman as a free agent?). Jared Young may be a nice guy but should be DFAed. I guess Mauricio may make the roster but it’s hard to see much playing time for him without (a) Baty and Vientos being bad or ( injuries.
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