Here's the inning: - M. Alou singled to deep right center - S. Green singled to left, M. Alou to second - E. Chavez ran for S. Green - J. Valentin grounded into fielder's choice, M. Alou out at third, E. Chavez to second - J. Franco hit for P. Feliciano - J. Franco walked, E. Chavez to third, J. Valentin to second Edgy DC wrote: That was the third-most-damaging offensive play by a Met, advancing their win probablility (based on 2001-2006 game data) by 19.2 percentage points, from 38.2% to 57.4%. - J. Reyes reached on fielder's choice, E. Chavez scored, J. Valentin to third, J. Franco to second on J. Rollins' fielding error Edgy DC wrote: Reyes' conspiring hit to Mr. Team-to-Beat pushed our scheme ahead by 22.8 points, from 57.4% to 80.2%. - J. Valentin scored, J. Franco to third, J. Reyes to second on wild pitch Edgy DC wrote: That brought in the go-ahead run, but the likeliness that it was going to be brought in one way or another at that point apparently supressed the overall statistical impact. It advanced the marker 12.1 points, from 80.2% to 92.3%. - P. Lo Duca walked Edgy DC wrote: Most of what Lo Duca's walk would have accomplished was already accomplished in the wild pitch. The walk only advanced the Mets 1.8 points, from 92.1% to 93.9%. - J. Lieber relieved J. Lieber - C. Beltran hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Franco scored - C. Delgado walked, J. Reyes to third, P. Lo Duca to second - D. Wright doubled to deep left, P. Lo Duca and J. Reyes scored, C. Delgado to third Edgy DC wrote: Wright's double was vicious, but the Mets were already up by a few and it was late. It advanced the likelihood of a Mets win 3.3 points, from 94.3 %to 97.6%. The game wasn't in bed, but the lights were out and the covers were pulled. - M. Alou singled to left, C. Delgado and D. Wright scored - E. Chavez grounded out to shortstop So the big leap had to have come early in the inning. Interesting. My second (and final) guess: Green's single?