Hosmer - or other 1B ideas for 2018

[Frayed Knot]

There are kind of three choices for 1B this coming year:
1) stick with Smith, likely with a RH-hitting partner who may or may not already be with the team (Flores, one of the catchers, TJR)
2) get a 1-2 year gap filler who will either work in addition to or instead of Dom: Return of Duda? or other such 30+ FA or near end of contract guy
3) Go big via a FA or trade. This, as I've argued before, means dealing Smith to hopefully fill a hole elsewhere. The idea that they'll keep him to sit in the minors and/or bench for 3 or 4 or 5 years is ridiculous.


Choice 3 is obviously where Hosmer comes in.
He'll be one of the bigger names in FAgency this year by virtue of having just turned 28 y/o and picking the best year to have his best year.
But he'll also be one of the dicier signs as will whoever signs him needs to know whether they'll get 'odd year' Hosmer or 'even year' Hosmer

Odd year Hosmer: 2013: OPS/OPS+ = 801 / 118; 2015 = 822 / 122; 2017 = 882 / 132. Those were his 3rd, 5th, and 7th season in the majors.
Even year Hosmer -- his 2nd, 4th, and 6th seasons -- yielded: 2012 = 663 / 81; 2014 = 716 / 99; 2016 = 761 / 102
Looked at another way, that's an Offensive WAR of 3.0, 3.6, and 4.8 in the odd years, but 0.3, 0.4, 1.6 in those even years. Those last set of numbers not being what you want to see in a 1st sacker.

He's got three Gold Glove under his belt (and another nominee for this year) although defensive metrics like him less.

I saw a projection of 6 years/$132 and then there's the Boras factor who thinks $200 million is more like it and of course he has the binders to prove it.



Other FA suggestions include: Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana. And then there are various trade candidates.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I poked around this morning about Smith to see what he might be up to
this off-season but didn't find anything. I'm one of those guys when he came
up that he's here and will be here for some time and is part of the plan. Hope-
fully he lays off the extra bread before dinner and is some kind of serious and
fruitful regimen and will show up with guns a blazing come March. And a clear
head is also on my wish list for young Dom.

[Centerfield]

Agreed on this (FK's post). The only thing I will add to that is that there is no immediate need to trade Smith if you sign another 1B. You can trade him this winter, or in spring training, or at the deadline, or next year. Playing another year of AAA is no problem for a 22 year old, and that way you keep him around if Hosmer gets hurt.

But I think this is all moot. I think there is no chance the Mets 1B is anyone but Smith. He's cheap, and he's justifiable. There is no way the Mets would go out and spend money when they have a justifiable, in-house option.

Good luck in 2018 Dom. Like KC said, lay off the extra bread.

[ashie62]

Sandy didn't trade our team away for cash not to play ready young cheap talent.

[Edgy MD]

He didn't trade the team away. He traded players who were in the final year of their contract. And they got a lot of players, in addition to a little cash.

[Mex17]

I doubt that the Mets are going to be seriously in for Hosmer or Santana, but they may realistically end up signing Morrison or Alonso.

If they do, is a Flores/Harvey/Smith for Brian Dozier trade totally outrageous?

[MFS62]

If they feel Smith isn't ready, or could be used as part of a major deal to strengthen another position(s), how about seeing whether Duda would sign a one year/short term contract? I'm thinking minor league slugging first baseman Peter Alonso will be ready soon.
(ducking)

OE I was editing my post while it was being quoted by Ceetar.
Later

Edited November 8, 2017 by Guest

[Ceetar]

MFS62 wrote: If they feel Smith isn't ready, how about seeing whether Duda would sign a one year/short term contract.? (ducking) Later

he won't.

[Frayed Knot]

I doubt Duda is going to get offered anything but a one-year deal.
Hitting .175 during his time with Tampa and just .188 vs LHP all season isn't likely to create a bidding war for a slow, mediocre-defensive, 32 y/o 1B-man

[Mex17]

I'm sure that Alonso (the prospect) is playing a role as to whether or not Smith is expendable in a trade, but Morrison and Alonso (the free agent) are both better options than Duda.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: I doubt Duda is going to get offered anything but a one-year deal. Hitting .175 during his time with Tampa and just .188 vs LHP all season isn't likely to create a bidding war for a slow, mediocre-defensive, 32 y/o 1B-man

You really think so? I know HR's are up, but 30 HR's is still something. Has had an .800+ OPS the last few years except the bad back year. But I guess maybe the bad back also detracts from what you said above.

If he's available on a one year contract, do you consider him bringing him back?

[Edgy MD]

Duda gets two years, $23 million plus an option with a $2 million buyout from Baltimore. Chris Davis shifts more toward becoming a DH, fighting for time with Mark Trumbo and Seth Smith. That's four guys into three positions, but somebody loses out or gets hurt and things go forward.

Lucas becomes Baltimore's favored son, at least at one watering hole.

[Frayed Knot]

One year, maybe a one-plus-one. Two years tops if he finds the right situation but I don't think the Mets are that situation.

I'd prefer to find a RH-hitting 1B to ease in with Smith rather than Duda-redux. And, as I've said before, if you want to go the 1B FA route then go all in and deal Smith but I'd hope that would be
as a result of the right guy at the right time rather than just someone who they think will be better in 2018, or because they've already decided that Smith won't make it rather than based merely
on being impatient following his 150 ABs since the call-up.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Also way too early to consider Alonso anything but a potential MLB first sacker. Only 45 AB above Class A. You really have to hit to make it as a 1B, and its not the sort of position a contender typically has a below par guy. I think at this point its possible Wright could fill in there, if he's healthy and plays.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, Peter Alonso was a 2nd round pick out of a strong college program just a year and a half ago, all of which may make him the type to move through a minor league system quickly.
But that route also means he's six months older than Smith yet has just barely gotten his feet wet in AA at this point - so maybe we all need to be at least a little bit patient with Smith
before we all go pulling the prospect version of declaring the grass to be greener over yonder.
If and when Alonso starts to show he's a real challenge to Smith then it may force a team decision on the two as neither seems like a candidate for a different position. But we're not near that point yet.

[Mex17]

It's hard for me to believe that these reports are coming out that the Mets are looking at free agent first basemen without me thinking that they have at least had preliminary talks with other teams that include Smith as part of a package that brings something big back. Less than 200 ABs is not enough sample size to give up on a guy who has put up the numbers in the minors that Smith has had along with the rankings that he has attained on prospect lists over the years.

Obviously, I cannot totally predict this, but the pieces might fit this way. . .

-All of Davidoff's speculations come to pass and they sign Morrison for 2/$25, Shaw for 3/$27, and Vargas for 1/$9. That is $30.5 million of payroll added for 2018. Right in the wheelhouse of the lower ends of what people are speculating that Alderson is able to spend.

-Harvey projects for $5.9 million in arbitration and Flores for $3.7 million. That's a total of $9.6 million.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

-The Twins know that they have to get a return for Dozier now or lose him for nothing in a year. Thanks to a link that Edgy posted in another thread, now I know that Pohlad is on record saying that they would want big league talent in return as opposed to prospects that are "years away". We can offer that in Flores (Dozier's replacement who the Twins would control for two more years), Harvey (a semi-reclamation project but who has most definitely had ace-level performance in the not so far off past and might do well to get a change of scenery as he goes into an important year for him), and Smith (a solid prospect who is major league ready and could allow them to move Mauer to DH is they think that needs to happen).

Being that Dozier makes $9 million this year (and $9.6 million would be going out in that deal), the financial numbers for the Mets work out perfectly. But would that package entice Minnesota? They have a first base prospect in the name of Lewin Diaz who projects very similarly to Smith but is a year or maybe two away. Does that make them completely non-interested in Smith? How does Harvey's current value compared to his past track record play in a package like that?

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, Peter Alonso was a 2nd round pick out of a strong college program just a year and a half ago, all of which may make him the type to move through a minor league system quickly. But that route also means he's six months older than Smith yet has just barely gotten his feet wet in AA at this point - so maybe we all need to be at least a little bit patient with Smith before we all go pulling the prospect version of declaring the grass to be greener over yonder. If and when Alonso starts to show he's a real challenge to Smith then it may force a team decision on the two as neither seems like a candidate for a different position. But we're not near that point yet.

I don't think anyone has advocated that we be impatient with Smith. And I don't think anyone has suggested we dump him based upon his small sample struggle in 2017.

He's 22 years old, he's extremely young. And that youth is why we should both (a) be patient with him and ( be hesitant about handing him the job on a team that is serious about contending.

If it's 2013, sure. If it's 2018, and you are also carrying a rookie SS and just ok production at catcher? Well now it gets risky.

The Mets should feel free to sign a first baseman if it makes sense, even if it means blocking Smith for a few years, because Smith is only 22 years old. There is no pressure to trade him this winter, or even next.

If Yonder Alonso can be had on a short term deal, or if Duda is available on a one year commitment, all of those options should be on the table. Simply handing Smith the job now is cheap and lazy.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I don't think anyone has advocated that we be impatient with Smith. And I don't think anyone has suggested we dump him based upon his small sample struggle in 2017.

Well, several posts in this thread have talked about either dealing Smith away based on the idea that Alonso is maybe just a year away, and/or that Alsono's very presence should at least figure into the
team's willingness to deal Smith. I think both of those scenarios are jumping the gun.
Not that any of that means you CAN'T deal him, only that you need to have a better backup plan than hoping that the next prospect will be better than the current one you've decided is expendable
even though the new one has less of a pedigree, is older, and is further away from the majors now than Dom was a year ago.

The Mets should feel free to sign a first baseman if it makes sense, even if it means blocking Smith for a few years, because Smith is only 22 years old.

For a year or so? maybe.
But signing an exclusive 1B-man to a three or more year deal with the idea of simply warehousing Dom in the minors while he ages and waits for the injury which may never occur? No.

[Mex17]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well, several posts in this thread have talked about either dealing Smith away based on the idea that Alonso is maybe just a year away, and/or that Alsono's very presence should at least figure into the team's willingness to deal Smith. I think both of those scenarios are jumping the gun.

I would be right with you on this were it not for the actual reports that I am seeing which are stating/speculating that they might be in on the likes of Morrison and Yonder Alonso (and, to a less likely extent, Hosmer and Santana).

[Frayed Knot]

Mex17 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Well, several posts in this thread have talked about either dealing Smith away based on the idea that Alonso is maybe just a year away, and/or that Alsono's very presence should at least figure into the team's willingness to deal Smith. I think both of those scenarios are jumping the gun. I would be right with you on this were it not for the actual reports that I am seeing which are stating/speculating that they might be in on the likes of Morrison and Yonder Alonso (and, to a less likely extent, Hosmer and Santana).

Again, I'm NOT saying you can't deal Smith, only that if you do you better have a better fall back plan than counting on the prospect who's not as good or as advanced as the one you're dealing away.
If they're going to trade Smith in favor of outside help it's got to be because they want to be better for at least the near future but NOT because Peter Alsonso's existence has made him redundant.

[Centerfield]

Of course the minute we trade away Smith he’ll turn into Tony Gwynn. You just know this will happen.

[Frayed Knot]

Probably the toughest part of the GM's job is knowing **In Advance** which prospects to bet on and which to deal away.

- I remember Yanqui fans having more faith in Gerald Williams than in Bernie Williams, but ultimately team mgmt made the right call on that one rather than acting on fan polling.

- In the late '90s/early '00s Houston had the roughly the same aged/OFs Richard Hidalgo & Lance Berkman coming up through their system and the eyeball test favored Hidalgo at every turn.
He ran better, he threw much better, had more raw power, and was a sculpted figure especially next to Berkman who had the build of a duffle bag.
And it's not like Hidalgo's career was a flop, but he was out of the game by age 30 with 171 HRs and a career OBA of .345. But Berkman went on to last 16 seasons with more than double the
HR output and a .400+ on-base

Calls like those often seem obvious after the fact but rarely are at the time.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Probably the toughest part of the GM's job is knowing **In Advance** which prospects to bet on and which to deal away. - I remember Yanqui fans having more faith in Gerald Williams than in Bernie Williams, but ultimately team mgmt made the right call on that one rather than acting on fan polling. - In the late '90s/early '00s Houston had the roughly the same aged/OFs Richard Hidalgo & Lance Berkman coming up through their system and the eyeball test favored Hidalgo at every turn. He ran better, he threw much better, had more raw power, and was a sculpted figure especially next to Berkman who had the build of a duffle bag. And it's not like Hidalgo's career was a flop, but he was out of the game by age 30 with 171 HRs and a career OBA of .345. But Berkman went on to last 16 seasons with more than double the HR output and a .400+ on-base Calls like those often seem obvious after the fact but rarely are at the time.

Which is why I think it helps to have an actual scout as part of the front office. Someone with an eye like Omar Minaya.

Sandy's nerd staff might be bright, but having an eye for talent is something they can't bring.

And I totally would have picked Hidalgo over Berkman. Not even a contest.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Berkman who had the build of a duffle bag.

LOLOL

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Probably the toughest part of the GM's job is knowing **In Advance** which prospects to bet on and which to deal away. - I remember Yanqui fans having more faith in Gerald Williams than in Bernie Williams, but ultimately team mgmt made the right call on that one rather than acting on fan polling. - In the late '90s/early '00s Houston had the roughly the same aged/OFs Richard Hidalgo & Lance Berkman coming up through their system and the eyeball test favored Hidalgo at every turn. He ran better, he threw much better, had more raw power, and was a sculpted figure especially next to Berkman who had the build of a duffle bag. And it's not like Hidalgo's career was a flop, but he was out of the game by age 30 with 171 HRs and a career OBA of .345. But Berkman went on to last 16 seasons with more than double the HR output and a .400+ on-base Calls like those often seem obvious after the fact but rarely are at the time. Which is why I think it helps to have an actual scout as part of the front office. Someone with an eye like Omar Minaya. Sandy's nerd staff might be bright, but having an eye for talent is something they can't bring. And I totally would have picked Hidalgo over Berkman. Not even a contest.

JP Ricciardi is that guy for us. He was the old-school counterpart to DePodesta's new school. What we don't have anymore is DePo.

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Centerfield wrote: Which is why I think it helps to have an actual scout as part of the front office. Someone with an eye like Omar Minaya. JP Ricciardi is that guy for us. He was the old-school counterpart to DePodesta's new school. What we don't have anymore is DePo.

Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to think that Sandy's crew is light on the scouting end of things.
I just pulled a couple of examples out of my head to illustrate where I remembered that the clearly better long-term choice didn't necessarily look that way at the time, but every org. has multiple
examples on each side of the ledger.

Sandy, or his crew, made the right call on Duda vs Davis, haven't really 'whiffed' on any top draft picks (although some are still pending), and the only significant prospect they gave up recently
netted them Cespedes (Steve Phillips would have dealt deGrom for a middle reliever six years ago).

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: Which is why I think it helps to have an actual scout as part of the front office. Someone with an eye like Omar Minaya. JP Ricciardi is that guy for us. He was the old-school counterpart to DePodesta's new school. What we don't have anymore is DePo. Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to think that Sandy's crew is light on the scouting end of things. I just pulled a couple of examples out of my head to illustrate where I remembered that the clearly better long-term choice didn't necessarily look that way at the time, but every org. has multiple examples on each side of the ledger. Sandy, or his crew, made the right call on Duda vs Davis, haven't really 'whiffed' on any top draft picks (although some are still pending), and the only significant prospect they gave up recently netted them Cespedes (Steve Phillips would have dealt deGrom for a middle reliever six years ago).

First Round for Alderson:
2016 - Justin Dunn can't find the strike zone, Anthony Kay had Tommy John surgery without throwing a pitch
2015 - no first rounder
2014 - Conforto!
2013 - Smith has been up and down
2012 - Cecchini looks like a utility infielder
2011 - Nimmo is either a real center fielder or a 4th outfielder, i still dont know which.

I'd say the jury is still out on Alderson's overall drafting, but thats probably the case for most GMs until long after they are gone.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

John Hey, Man says the Mets could be a player for Indians FA 1B Carlos "Black Magic" Santana, whom they see as an alternative to Hosmer and perhaps free up Smith for a trade (that last bit of speculation is mine). They could also bring back BRUUUUUUCE if that deal falls through.

Santana is Good. Switch hitter, tons of walks but not a high BA, reliable in the 25 HR+ range. 31 years old.

[Edgy MD]

It's amazing how guys traded in mid-season by a team almost never rebound back that team (aka "pulling a Bordick"), but seemingly every one the Mets have traded — Duda, Walker, Bruce, Reed — is on the table for the Mets' consideration.

Nobody's mentioned a Granderson reunion yet, or a René Rivera redux.

Yet.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I feel like the Grandyman Reunion ended when we let Long go. I see the Nats signing him as a veteran pinch hitter who will probably strike out a lot but hit at least one shocking home run off Blevins in a big spot.

Has someone started the Free Agent Prediction Game Thread yet?