Free Agent Prediction Addiction

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Predict the fate of the following selection of 2016-17 Free Agents.

Joe Bautista
Gregor Blanco
Gordon Beckham
Carlos Beltran
Jerry Blevins

Yoenis Cespedes
Coco Crisp

Alejandro De Aza
Ian Desmond

Edwin Encarnacion
Nate Eovaldi

Doug Fister
Dexter Fowler
Jeff Francoeur

Dillon Gee
Carlos Gomez

Big Jim Henderson
Greg Holland
Tommy Hunter

Kenley Jansen
Kelly Johnson
Colby Lewis
James Loney

Brandon Moss
Jonathon Niese
Ivan Nova

Angel Pagan
Jonathan Papelbon
Steve Pearce
Jake Peavey

Fernando Rodriguez
Sergio Romo
Justin Ruggiano

Fernando Salas
Joe Smith
Drew Storen

Ruben Tejada
Josh Thole
Justin Turner

Edinson Volquez

Matt Weiters

[Lefty Specialist]

I'll predict Josh Thole signs a minor league deal with the Braves.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Joe Bautista - Marlins
Gregor Blanco - Rockies
Gordon Beckham - Phillies
Carlos Beltran - Astros
Jerry Blevins - Indians

Yoenis Cespedes - Mets
Coco Crisp - Orioles

Alejandro De Aza - Phillies
Ian Desmond - Blue Jays

Edwin Encarnacion - Giants
Nate Eovaldi - Padres

Doug Fister - White Sox
Dexter Fowler - Cubs
Jeff Francoeur - Nationals (minor league)

Dillon Gee - Pirates (Minor League)
Carlos Gomez - Twins

Big Jim Henderson - Blue Jays
Greg Holland - MFYs
Tommy Hunter - White Sox

Kenley Jansen - Giants
Kelly Johnson - Braves
Colby Lewis - Cardinals
James Loney - Marlins (minor league)

Brandon Moss - Orioles
Jonathon Niese - Reds (minor league)
Ivan Nova - Mets

Angel Pagan - Mariners
Jonathan Papelbon - MFYs
Steve Pearce - Indians
Jake Peavey - Padres

Fernando Rodriguez - MFYs
Sergio Romo - Mets
Justin Ruggiano - Dbaggs

Fernando Salas - Dbaggs
Joe Smith - Mets
Drew Storen - A's

Ruben Tejada - Royals (minor league)
Josh Thole - Retires, gets Class A coaching job with Blue Jays
Justin Turner - Giants

Edinson Volquez - Rays

Matt Weiters - Phillies

[Edgy MD]

I like how you always include the 20 top-line free agents, plus four or five former Mets whose career trajectory is heading in the wrong direction.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

It's the right thing to do.

There's no penalty for getting this all wrong you know.

[Edgy MD]

Joe Bautista Phillies
Gregor Blanco Astros
Gordon Beckham Diamondbacks
Carlos Beltran Giants
Jerry Blevins Cardinalia

Yoenis Cespedes Mets
Coco Crisp Diamondbacks

Alejandro De Aza Dodgers (minor league dealio)
Ian Desmond Padres

Edwin Encarnacion Jays
Nate Eovaldi Yankees

Doug Fister Rockies
Dexter Fowler Cups
Jeff Francoeur Mariners (minor league contractamundo)

Dillon Gee Pirates (minor league pact)
Carlos Gomez Cardinals

Big Jim Henderson Mariners
Greg Holland Brewers
Tommy Hunter Rangers

Kenley Jansen Nationals
Kelly Johnson Marlins
Colby Lewis on the slide geetar Rays
James Loney Rangers (on a minor thingie)

Brandon Moss Rangers (on a minor thingie)
Jonathon Niese Brewers (on a minor deal, and a minor league deal with the Brewers is just about the closest thing to baseball purgatory I can think of)
Ivan Nova Mariners

Angel Pagan Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon Braves
Steve Pearce Dodgers
Jake Peavey Yankees

Fernando Rodriguez Cardinals
Sergio Romo Athletics
Justin Ruggiano Athletics

Fernando Salas Royals
Joe Smith Marlins
Drew Storen Orioles

Ruben Tejada Royals (minor league pizza)
Josh Thole Braves (minor league Tostitos)
Justin Turner Orioles

Edinson Volquez Yankees

Matt Weiters Rays

[seawolf17]

Sure.

Joe Bautista - Toronto
Gregor Blanco - White Sox
Gordon Beckham - Phillies
Carlos Beltran - Tigers
Jerry Blevins - Mets

Yoenis Cespedes - Mets FOR FUCKS SAKE
Coco Crisp - Yankees

Alejandro De Aza - Marlins
Ian Desmond - Mariners

Edwin Encarnacion - Mariners
Nate Eovaldi - Yankees

Doug Fister - Royals
Dexter Fowler - Giants
Jeff Francoeur - Yomiuri Giants

Dillon Gee - Atlantic League
Carlos Gomez - Marlins

Big Jim Henderson - Indians
Greg Holland - Mets
Tommy Hunter - Angels

Kenley Jansen - Padres
Kelly Johnson - Braves
Colby Lewis - Astros
James Loney - Nationals

Brandon Moss - Rays
Jonathon Niese - White Sox
Ivan Nova - Rangers

Angel Pagan - Dodgers
Jonathan Papelbon - Whits Sox
Steve Pearce - Padres
Jake Peavy - Yankees

Fernando Rodriguez - Phillies
Sergio Romo - Royals
Justin Ruggiano - Cubs

Fernando Salas - Cubs
Joe Smith - Dodgers
Drew Storen - Rays

Ruben Tejada - Marlins
Josh Thole - Braves
Justin Turner - Reds

Edinson Volquez - Reds

Matt Wieters - Pirates

[DocTee]

Joe Bautista --Boston
Gregor Blanco --KC
Gordon Beckham --LAD
Carlos Beltran --NYY
Jerry Blevins --TOR

Yoenis Cespedes -WASH
Alejandro De Aza --OAK
Ian Desmond --TEX

Edwin Encarnacion --BALT
Nate Eovaldi --SD

Doug Fister --CIN
Dexter Fowler--NYM
Jeff Francoeur --WASH

Dillon Gee --PIT
Carlos Gomez --COL

Big Jim Henderson --MIL
Greg Holland ==PIT
Tommy Hunter--AZ

Kenley Jansen--SFG
Kelly Johnson--NYM
Colby Lewis --TEX
James Loney --MIL

Brandon Moss --OAK
Jonathon Niese --MIN
Ivan Nova--PHI

Angel Pagan --WASH
Jonathan Papelbon --BOS
Steve Pearce--NYM
Jake Peavey--CHW

Fernando Rodriguez --SEA
Sergio Romo --NYM
Justin Ruggiano --HOU

Fernando Salas--MIN
Joe Smith --STL
Drew Storen --LAD

Ruben Tejada --LAD
Josh Thole --ATL
Justin Turner --SFG

Edinson Volquez --NYY

Matt Weiters--CHW

[Edgy MD]

Edinson Volquez comes off the board, to the benefit of nobody who's guessed so far, as he signs a two-year, $22 million deal with the Marlins.

[Frayed Knot]

Based on the idea that I have no clue as to where any of these guys are going to wind up, I figured that using a random number generator to assign each guy (except for Cespedes of course) his future team might not be any worse than me actually taking the time to guesstimate each.
So based on many minutes of work, here are my off-season predictions:

Joe Bautista -- BAL
Gregor Blanco -- COL
Gordon Beckham -- TBR
Carlos Beltran -- SEA
Jerry Blevins -- PHI

Yoenis Cespedes -- NYM
Coco Crisp -- DET
Alejandro De Aza -- NYY
Ian Desmond -- KCR
Edwin Encarnacion -- STL

Nate Eovaldi -- CIN (although he's going to miss most if not all of the season with TJS so the correct answer here is probably 'nowhere')
Doug Fister -- CHC
Dexter Fowler -- TBR
Jeff Francoeur -- MIN
Dillon Gee -- SFG

Carlos Gomez -- METS!!
Big Jim Henderson -- KCR
Greg Holland -- WAS
Tommy Hunter -- PIT
Kenley Jansen -- COL

Kelly Johnson -- OAK
Colby Lewis -- MIN
James Loney -- LAA
Brandon Moss -- NYY
Jonathon Niese -- MIL

Ivan Nova -- HOU
Angel Pagan -- TOR
Jonathan Papelbon -- MIA
Steve Pearce -- MIA
Jake Peavey -- CIN

Fernando Rodriguez -- PHI
Sergio Romo -- CHW
Justin Ruggiano -- PIT
Fernando Salas -- BOS
Joe Smith -- DET

Drew Storen -- BOS
Ruben Tejada -- DET
Josh Thole -- TBR
Justin Turner -- STL
Matt Weiters -- CIN

Edinson Volquez -- I predict MIAMI!!



OK so several of these just plain ain't happenin' (Fowler to the Rays, Jansen to the Rox) and this particular iteration of this method is telling us that several playoff teams (LAD, CLE, TEX) aren't going to sign anyone all winter. But there are also a handful which make some sense and I'm interested to see if this entry can at least avoid finishing last once this whole thing is over.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I was considering doing the same yesterday, only putting the teams in a cup*
and seeing how I did against the more knowledgeable predictions.

* I don't own a random generator, traded mine for a flux capacitor some time back.

[Edgy MD]

I like the red asterisk.

[metsmarathon]

so, i didn't feel like looking into this so much as i felt like coming up with a strategy. so that's what i did.

for each player listed, i figured out their relative rank amongst their listed peers for that position, and then matched that rank to the team with teh greatest need in that position.

so for instance, matt weiters is the top catcher listed. so he goes to the rockies, who according to fangraphs depth charts, project to have the worst catching corps. and then josh thole, being the second-best catcher listed, goes to the team with the second worst catching corps, the braves.

so on and so forth.

the player and team rankings are from fangraphs projections. anyone not projected, gets assigned as i see fit, typically to the back of the list.

results:

Joe Bautista diamondbacks
Gregor Blanco phillies
Gordon Beckham royals
Carlos Beltran orioles
Jerry Blevins phillies

Yoenis Cespedes diamondbacks
Coco Crisp rockies

Alejandro De Aza white sox
Ian Desmond padres

Edwin Encarnacion royals
Nate Eovaldi brewers

Doug Fister padres
Dexter Fowler tigers
Jeff Francoeur braves

Dillon Gee royals
Carlos Gomez rangers

Big Jim Henderson pirates
Greg Holland tigers
Tommy Hunter marlins

Kenley Jansen angels
Kelly Johnson brewers
Colby Lewis braves
James Loney rockies

Brandon Moss brewers
Jonathon Niese marlins
Ivan Nova twins

Angel Pagan phillies
Jonathan Papelbon rays
Steve Pearce angels
Jake Peavey orioles

Fernando Rodriguez braves
Sergio Romo diamondbacks
Justin Ruggiano brewers

Fernando Salas padres
Joe Smith reds
Drew Storen twins

Ruben Tejada padres
Josh Thole braves
Justin Turner braves

Edinson Volquez [crossout]reds[/crossout] marlins

Matt Weiters rockies

the mets, apparently, get nobody.

also, there's no way this should work well...

[metsmarathon]

damnit, i'm no good at this thing.