Q.O. for Walker

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Silly question: We just have to make the offer to get the draft pick, right?

If we offer, he can reject and become a free agent?

If we don't offer, he'll become a free agent with no compensation headed our way?

So, the question is whether he'd accept the qualifying offer should we extend it?

If the worst-case scenario is that he accepts and we have a 20+ homer second baseman who plays decent D is is still around 30 years old for a salary that is rather high, but not ridiculous (only in the comparative world of baseball salaries), I don't mind that.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017

That may well happen. I suspect Walker will regress a bit in 2017. Also, if the Mets have Kelly Johnson to balance out from the left side, then the chances are even better.

But if you are planning for next season, you can't count on that happening. It's reasonable for the Mets to expect less production from 2B if Walker leaves, and if that happens, it would be prudent for them to make improvements elsewhere.

I just hope when we start spring training, we have legitimate reasons to be optimistic, and that the plan to improve on 87 wins isn't just "be healthier".

[Centerfield]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Silly question: We just have to make the offer to get the draft pick, right? If we offer, he can reject and become a free agent? If we don't offer, he'll become a free agent with no compensation headed our way? So, the question is whether he'd accept the qualifying offer should we extend it? If the worst-case scenario is that he accepts and we have a 20+ homer second baseman who plays decent D is is still around 30 years old for a salary that is rather high, but not ridiculous (only in the comparative world of baseball salaries), I don't mind that.

Yes, yes, yes and agreed.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Centerfield wrote: I'm saying it right now: Cecchini + Flores + Reyes + Rivera > Walker 2017 That may well happen. I suspect Walker will regress a bit in 2017. Also, if the Mets have Kelly Johnson to balance out from the left side, then the chances are even better. But if you are planning for next season, you can't count on that happening.

Sure I can. I just did!

I think Reyes is a better guy to have than Walker just on the face of it, especially given the $$. I'm less of a believer that TJR showed his true self last year, probably just his best self (decent RH pop, low OBP). Flores can hit. Cecchini in a very small sample looked like *he* could also hit, plus he's young, and he walks. I am counting on all of them.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: The decision on Walker really should have nothing to do with Wright. Other than the fact that both injuries relate to the back, the two injuries could not be more different.

I wasn't suggesting that this has anything to do with either the nature or the similarity of the injuries to Wright and Walker.

If the Mets think that they can count on Wright to play 3/4 time, they might go with a platoon of Wright/Flores/Reyes to cover second and third, thinking that they won't need Walker. In this scenario, Wright's recovery is relevant to whether they QO Walker.

[Centerfield]

Sorry, I misread your intent. I don't think the Mets, or anyone else, should count on anything from David Wright going forward.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, that's sad but true.

[Frayed Knot]

QO Facks:

- offers need to be made by five days after the end of the World Series at which point the player has seven days to accept or reject
- this will be the fifth year of the QO system for determining FA compensation
- 20 QOs were extended last winter, the most of any year so far
- prior to last year no player had accepted the QO but then three did just that last November: Colby Rasmus - Astros; Matt Weiters - Baltimore; Brett Anderson - Dodgers. Also Marco Estrada of Toronto agreed to a two-year deal during the seven day window prior to accepting or rejecting. The 16 remaining players wound up as FAs

And I also found this little nugget: If a player takes qualifying offer he cannot be traded (without his consent) until June 15 of the following season, and that even if a player grants such consent, only $50K in cash can be exchanged as part of the trade.

So if they opt to extend the offer to Walker then they better be prepared for at least the possibility that he accepts it.

[Edgy MD]

That changes the reckoning significantly.

[MFS62]

I heard that the one year QO is around $14 million(or more).
I don't think that's worth it for Walker.
The money can be better used.
As others have mentioned, the offer should be made. (some return VS no return)
But I hope he rejects it.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

As mentioned at the top of this thread, the QO for this winter is $17.2 million.
The QO is re-set each year by taking the average of the top 125 salaries in the game

[Gwreck]

Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win.

Exactly. This is exactly correct.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Gwreck wrote: Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win. Exactly. This is exactly correct.

I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year.

[Ceetar]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year.

Gordon Beckham (30)
Emmanuel Burriss (32)
Chris Coghlan (32)
Daniel Descalso (30)
Stephen Drew (34)
Johnny Giavotella (29)
Grant Green (29)
Kelly Johnson (35)
Tyler Ladendorf (29)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Steve Pearce (34)
Eric Sogard (31)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Chase Utley (38)
Neil Walker (31)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Tejada and Utley, huh? For some reason I think those names have been linked before.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's something to think about: If the Mets were to QO Walker, then why? What do you think the Mets would prefer to get from that QO? A draft pick, or one year's worth of Walker?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think they'd like $17M to give to Cespedes

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Here's something to think about: If the Mets were to QO Walker, then why?

The 'Why' has been discussed for two pages now.

What do you think the Mets would prefer to get from that QO? A draft pick, or one year's worth of Walker?

I think they'd prefer he turn the QO down.
If he does it still wouldn't preclude them from negotiating with Walker on a different deal, they'd just have to do so in the face of open competition.
But they'd also keep the possibility of going with a cheaper option at 2B on the table while using the $17 mil for someone/somewhere else AND have an extra draft pick next June.

[Centerfield]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Gwreck wrote: Centerfield wrote: You people are crazy. Of course you make the offer. Free draft pick. He's a middle infielder in the middle of his prime who hits 20+ HR's. He's getting a multi-year deal for big money. And if he accepts it? You just got a power-hitting 2nd baseman in his prime on a one year commitment. Win win. Exactly. This is exactly correct. I think a fair question is whether he'd accept it. Does he think he'd have a shot at a multi-year deal worth more with another team? Not sure what the market is like for second basemen this year.

It's a fair question to ask. And the answer is there is virtually no chance he would accept it.

Keep in mind, the timing of the QO makes it an idiotic decision if Walker decides to take it. Walker profiles much like Murphy did last off-season. And Murphy eventually got a 3 year, 37 million deal. With a much weaker free-agent class, and better defense in his pocket, Walker sets up well for this off-season.

If Walker were to take the QO, he'd basically have to give up on any market for him before it ever has a chance to develop. Remember, it's not like he can take the QO and put it into his back pocket. He has to make his call within 7 days. Only a great fool would give up on a multi-year deal before it ever has a chance to develop. Neil Walker is not a great fool. So he can clearly not choose the wine in front of him.

[Edgy MD]

Murphy, on the other hand, was reduced to shitting his pants, wondering if he was holding a one-way ticket to Desmondville, before signing a three-year deal at a disappointing rate that he admitted was the only offer he got, and the Nats admitted their braintrust was split about offering.

Nobody knows where the market is going, and turning down money on the table with hopes of a better long-term offer from a team that also has to give up a first-round pick is never risk-free proposition, and certainly not from a guy whose season ended on the operating table. If a guy who carried his team through the post season, homering on nightly basis against baseball's very best pitchers, can't go forward with certainty, I imagine few can.

Here's my guess: I say he rejects the qualifying offer if Hillary Clinton is elected, but grabs it anxiously and stuffs it in his pants if Donald Trump is elected.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, Murph was the Nats' third choice after Zobrist rejected them and Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade.

As mentioned already, there were three players (out of 20) who accepted QO's last year plus another who negotiated a two-year deal within the window so accepting isn't out of the question.
There were also three others who wound up sweating it out even longer than Murphy, not signing until late February and then only one-year deals at rates sometimes half what the QO was and for the only teams that would have them with forced position changes mixed in.

So while I suspect Walker will reject, I don't think it's a slam-dunk by any means.

[Ceetar]

there's some options here, but this is a much better crop for 2017-2018. Of course Walker wants to try to get his multi-year deal now rather than enter the market against a larger supply

Dustin Ackley (30)
Jose Altuve (28) — $6MM club option
Alexi Amarista (29)
Darwin Barney (32)
Danny Espinosa (31)
Ryan Flaherty (31)
Logan Forsythe (31) — $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Brett Lawrie (28)
Jed Lowrie (34) — $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Howie Kendrick (34)
Ian Kinsler (36) — $10MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Eduardo Nunez (31)
Cliff Pennington (34)
Brandon Phillips (37)
Eric Sogard (32)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'll say it again: I think everyone is overestimating how good Walker really is and acting as though $17M is the right salary. He's was a slightly above average 2Bman offensively who hit a career high HRs and went wildly off the charts in a subset of his game that he historically struggled at.

I don't like to argue WAR because I'm suspicious of it generally and don;t really understand it, but if you do consider 2016 despite the career high in HRs was his "worst" WAR year offensively in his career.

Consider that at the "bargain" price we got him for last season all it cost was an injured and declining Jon Niese.

Consider he's coming off back surgery.

I'm not trying to slog Walker but there's an argument he's already on the downhill yet looking at a 63% salary increase.

If we offer the QO I think he takes it right away, compromises our flexibility wrt other players owed increases due to arbitration or re-signing, and unnecessarily creates a logjam at one of the few places where our depth could serve us more efficiently.

[Edgy MD]

Also keep in mind, even Céspedes was in danger of being left at the altar last off-season.

It was a bearish market. I'm not sure it's going to change. With the poor impulse control of George Steinbrenner out the picture, teams get more sophisticated about their offseason shopping every year.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If we offer the QO I think he takes it right away, compromises our flexibility wrt other players owed increases due to arbitration or re-signing, and unnecessarily creates a logjam at one of the few places where our depth could serve us more efficiently.

It's extremely unlikely he takes it based on any history with it. I also don't think it hurts the flexibility too much. Also the Mets have a lot more information in regards to this, as they've talked with teams about trades and have to have a better idea of who wants a 2B and what not. Then again, maybe the idea that all they could get for Herrera was Bruce speaks to lack of demand for 2B?

I think you're overstating the logjam more than we're overstating Walker's value though. 12/38 players with at least 300 PA at 2B in terms of wRC+. That's a little bit more than above average and it's asking a lot to ask any of the players we've got to manage that, plus he played good defense. Not to mention that some of the logjam might be used to backup/play third.

Also there was a home run spike in baseball in general, so while yes he had a career high SLG (though not ISO), a lot of players did last year.

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't like to argue WAR because I'm suspicious of it generally and don;t really understand it, but if you do consider 2016 despite the career high in HRs was his "worst" WAR year offensively in his career.

WAR is a cumulative stat so his "lowest" mark this year was entirely due to this season falling as much as 200 ABs short of his previous five seasons (458 this year vs 530 to 662), most of that obviously due to the late season injury. Now maybe you could argue that missing the ABs is a sign of aging but it's not one of his hitting falling off.
A rate stat like Runs Created per/Game shows this to be his best season other than his first full one back in 2010.
The oddity in his season was his dearth of doubles.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Fair enuf, serves me right for talking out of my ass on WAR. What is it good for?

I still think he's destined to wind up in Pittsburgh as a reserve.

[Frayed Knot]

I also don't think that anyone is arguing that $17 mil is the 'Right' salary for him, merely the one you have to offer in order to snag a draft pick. And that even if he upsets the apple cart by accepting and then regresses to the point where that salary turns out to be twice as much as what he 'earns' in 2017, well hell then he's overpaid for one year but anyone can survive that.

Either way, it's hard to see him falling-off enough to where he becomes backup material, at least not for another year or two yet, and his inconsistencies this past season weren't any worse than those of most other hitters. He had a rough month of June, no big deal. No worse certainly than Cespedes's September, most of Grandy's first half, or anything Conforto did starting the 1st of May.

[Frayed Knot]

Today is QO day in MLB - so be sure to have your Qualifying Offers (or Quesadilla Orders) ready to go by the midnight EST deadline.

Free Agents can then start signing, with their original team or with any other, as early as tomorrow.
Now if this were the NFL it would mean that something like 80% of FA contracts would be in the books by around noon on the first day (never quite understood why that's the case), and if it were the NBA then all the big deals would already been agreed to and widely publicized weeks ahead of the start of their FA period.
But for baseball this merely signals the beginning of a long and often slow process that could take some players until late February to latch on with a team.