Home Field or Syndergaard?

[Edgy MD]

Pretend for a moment that

[*:212jqn0g]It is the last game of the season.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]The Mets have already clinched the second Wild Card spot.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]But the first Wild Card slot is within reach.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]If the Mets win this last game, and the other first place contender loses at the same time, the Mets gain that first Wild Card slot and the home field that comes with it.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]deGrom has returned, but it is unclear if he has yet returned to form.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]Matz, similarly, is expected back for the playoffs, but his current level of effectiveness is unclear.

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]Syndergaard is scheduled to pitch this last game.[/*:m:212jqn0g][/list:o:212jqn0g]

Do you ...

[*:212jqn0g]... bump Syndergaard, letting Seth Lugo pitch that last game, hoping the team can win that first Wild Card Slot behind Sethy, but otherwise save Syndergaard for the big play-in game, whether it be at home, or (it is that much more likely) on the road? Or ...

[/*:m:212jqn0g]
[*:212jqn0g]Pitch Syndergaard as scheduled, so as to make the best effort to secure that first place spot and the home field advantage that comes with it, and schedule Colón (or possibly Question Mark-deGrom or Question Mark-Matz) to pitch the play-in game, which is hopefully more likely to be at home?[/*:m:212jqn0g][/list:o:212jqn0g]

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Pitch him. Tomorrow is tomorrow. And frankly, Thor pitching through pain/ discomfort is about as effective as any of the other options (Colon, eg), isn't he?

Edited September 12, 2016 by Guest

[dinosaur jesus]

Yeah, pitch him. Then he can pitch the first game of the Division Series

[Edgy MD]

IF they get to a division series.

I'm surprised to see the early vote break this way.

[Chad ochoseis]

The Mets' home record this year is 38-33 and their away record is 38-34. Among the likely opponents, the Giants are also only slightly better at home and the Cardinals are 11 games worse.

I think there's plenty of luck behind those differences, and all else being equal it's a significant advantage to play at home. But it's not as much of an advantage as having Syndergaard start and Colon available if he falters. I'd pitch Lugo and take the increased risk of playing the WC game on the road.

[Frayed Knot]

Winning the WC play-in game is MUCH!! more important than the simply determining where that game will be played and the gap from Thor to whoever (at least as described in this scenario) is larger than the small (if any) advantage you'd get from being the home team in that one game ... Bump him!

Home field/court/ice advantage is the single most over-rated sports topic of the 21st century.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Winning the WC play-in game is MUCH!! more important than the simply determining where that game will be played and the gap from Thor to whoever (at least as described in this scenario) is larger than the small (if any) advantage you'd get from being the home team in that one game ... Bump him! Home field/court/ice advantage is the single most over-rated sports topic of the 21st century.

Yup.

[Centerfield]

Besides, our last game is Philly no? Any one of our starters should be able to beat Philly.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Count me among those who would delay Syndergaard's start.

[TransMonk]

Yeah, I'd bump him.

[HahnSolo]

If we are guaranteed to play in the WC game, but have no chance at the division, I throw Thor in the WC game whether it is home or away.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Winning the play-in is more important than playing the play-in at home, so I guess I save Syndergaard unless its clear by then that some other guy is clearly pitching better than him. It's all hands on deck in the next one anyway.

[Ceetar]

HahnSolo wrote: If we are guaranteed to play in the WC game, but have no chance at the division, I throw Thor in the WC game whether it is home or away.

yeah, this.

Let Lugo pitch. Lugo's a great guy to pitch against the Phillies anyway. He's got great movement on at least some of his pitches and the Philles don't walk, and certainly won't walk on the last day of the season. I could see him striking out 13 in a 1:54 hour complete game.

Thor is by far the best pitcher on the team* right now, factoring in the fatigued deGrom. The advantage of having him pitch in the game that guarantees you 3 more, 1 of which he can pitch, is so vastly superior to the possibility that he could get you home field, even if it didn't require the other teams to lose. And then he's back on pace to pitch game one of the NLCS if they needed.

*best pitcher in the league.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Winning the WC play-in game is MUCH!! more important than the simply determining where that game will be played and the gap from Thor to whoever (at least as described in this scenario) is larger than the small (if any) advantage you'd get from being the home team in that one game ... Bump him! Home field/court/ice advantage is the single most over-rated sports topic of the 21st century.

I'm a bumper too. BUT ... for whatever reason, data suggests home-whatever advantage seems to carry a lot more weight in other sports. Pitching matchup advantage, on the other hand, is an edge that has almost no parallel in other major team sports.

You WANT Syndergaard in that play-in game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Harper may dispute that:


In one-game playoff, Mets could consider healthy Jacob deGrom because of Noah Syndergaard's inability to hold runners

As dominant as Noah Syndergaard can be, his problems in controlling the running game are a consideration in a win-or-go-home scenario, where a couple of stolen bases could prove crucial. “That would be a factor for me,” an NL scout said Friday. “Everybody says stolen bases aren’t important anymore, but then you get to the playoffs, and they can be the difference in a ballgame. “DeGrom is much better at holding runners, so if he’s healthy he’d be my choice. But it would be more of a factor if the Mets wind up playing the Giants. The Cardinals don’t run much at all.”

[smg58]

You could consider a healthy deGrom because he was pitching at least as well as Syndegaard for most of the season. Holding on runners is not irrelevant, but it's hardly the main factor in deciding who gives you the best chance of winning.

Given how things stand right now, I would hold Syndegaard for the wildcard game regardless of whether it was home or away. I don't see how the decision is even difficult.

[G-Fafif]

Given how name-brand Mets have given way to effective generic equivalents, I wouldn't make a point of leaning on Syndergaard in Game 162. If Lugo has gotten us that far, he can get us a little farther -- or far enough so we don't have to go all the way to San Francisco/St. Louis.

Odd to think of the Cardinals as less of a threat to run than the Giants. Thor would be the man to go to in the WC game, but the holding-runners-on piece is worrisome. You'd have to start Rivera behind the plate, though (sadly) the way d'Arnaud has hit, that's not necessarily a comedown...subject to change with three weeks to go, I suppose.

[dinosaur jesus]

John Harper may dispute that: In one-game playoff, Mets could consider healthy Jacob deGrom because of Noah Syndergaard's inability to hold runners As dominant as Noah Syndergaard can be, his problems in controlling the running game are a consideration in a win-or-go-home scenario, where a couple of stolen bases could prove crucial. “That would be a factor for me,” an NL scout said Friday. “Everybody says stolen bases aren’t important anymore, but then you get to the playoffs, and they can be the difference in a ballgame. “DeGrom is much better at holding runners, so if he’s healthy he’d be my choice. But it would be more of a factor if the Mets wind up playing the Giants. The Cardinals don’t run much at all.”

So why would this particularly apply in a one-game playoff? And why would stolen bases suddenly be the difference, when evidently they weren't during the regular season? If the guy is just saying that a healthy deGrom is a better matchup against the Giants, I might actually agree. But if he's making it a general rule, and saying you shouldn't start your best pitcher in your most important game because he gives up a lot of stolen bases, that's just crap.

[Edgy MD]

On the other hand, as little as one may value homeopathic-field advantage, getting out of a cross-country flight to play in San Francisco, after a late afternoon game in Philadelphia, is not without value.

That would be, assuming the play-in game does occur one day after the season ends. But it appears that the Mets would have two days off. Heck, pitch Syndergaard in both.

[nymr83]

Should Syndergaard pitch Saturday, on 3 days rest, to allow him to go back out there for the Wildcard game October 5th on another 3 days of rest?

Would you instead consider 7 days of rest (if things play out such that the Mets look to be able to clinch Friday)?

Would you not mind pitching someone else instead?


edit - please move this thread to the Baseball Forum. Syndergaard doesn't want his name so close to Hillary and The Donald.

[Centerfield]

Pitch him Sunday on regular rest if we need the game. If not, rest him for Wednesday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. And only if the Mets need the game to secure a wild card spot, not for home field advantage.

I'd be okay with giving Noah an inning or two on Sunday if Wednesday's game is assured, but I don't think the Mets would pitch any of their young starters on three days rest between starts. Maybe Colon, but nobody else.

[Centerfield]

Just checked the schedule. Bumgarner is pitching Friday. As is Carlos Martinez. Unless St. Louis and the Giants end up tied behind the Mets, we are facing one ace or another come Wednesday. (You know, assuming we make it.)

[Lefty Specialist]

Root for them to tie and the Mets finish in the first WC.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, if the Giants and Cardinals end up tied for the second wild card spot, neither team will have their ace lined up for the Monday tie-breaker, so that wouldn't impact who starts the Wednesday game.

Hopefully the Mets punch their ticket before Sunday's game, let Ynoa or Montero start that meaningless game, and have Syndergaard well-rested for Wednesday. Otherwise, the options for Wednesday are Colon on three days rest, or Lugo or Gsellman.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Count me among those who would delay Syndergaard's start.

ditto.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Well, if the Giants and Cardinals end up tied for the second wild card spot, neither team will have their ace lined up for the Monday tie-breaker, so that wouldn't impact who starts the Wednesday game. Hopefully the Mets punch their ticket before Sunday's game, let Ynoa or Montero start that meaningless game, and have Syndergaard well-rested for Wednesday. Otherwise, the options for Wednesday are Colon on three days rest, or Lugo or Gsellman.

The Giants have a second ace-like pitcher in Cueto (i'd rather see him though), the Cardinals don't

[Lefty Specialist]

My concern if you don't pitch him is that he'd be on 8 days' rest. Perhaps he gets an inning or two on Sunday. Otherwise you'll be pitching Gsellugo for the WC game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

According to the Daily News this morning, the Mets are considering Colon on three days rest for Friday's game so he can be on regular rest for Wednesday if Syndergaard has to pitch on Sunday.

If they wrap things up early enough, and Syndergaard can pitch on Wednesday, he'd likely get the start on Sunday and pitch two or three innings as a tune-up.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: According to the Daily News this morning, the Mets are considering Colon on three days rest for Friday's game so he can be on regular rest for Wednesday if Syndergaard has to pitch on Sunday. If they wrap things up early enough, and Syndergaard can pitch on Wednesday, he'd likely get the start on Sunday and pitch two or three innings as a tune-up.

good plan.