Do the Mets make the 2015 Playoffs without Cespedes?

[Edgy MD]

[fimg=800:3g20vl0m]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6YSsrm9E6Yk/VcBIvZhBJII/AAAAAAAAM1Y/kkeQ4HuVhFg/s1600/2015%2B08%2B02_0092_ec.jpg[/fimg:3g20vl0m]

[TransMonk]

Yes. The run was as much (more) about getting Uribe/Johnson/Wright/d'Arnaud/Conforto/Clippard onto the 25 man roster as it was about adding Cespedes.

Cespedes stole the headlines with his hot streak, but he did not solely account for the 9 game difference in the standings after his arrival.

[batmagadanleadoff]

What if the Nats threw in the towel? What if the division was won during Cespedes' tear? Maybe if the Nats were closer in early September, they don't fall apart, the Papelbon crisis doesn't happen and things turn out differently.

I don't know what the answer is, but it's not unreasonable to think that the Met don't win the division without Cespedes.

[TransMonk]

Right. What happens if a butterfly flaps it's wings in Peking...

This poll question is silly. I still say the odds are still more likely that they're in without him given the infinite number of parallel universes that would/could have occurred.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I don't think it's silly. There are 'un-measurable' things that occur with sports
teams sometimes when a special unexpected ingredient is added. It was magical,
and it wore a bright yellow arm thingy!

[Lefty Specialist]

If the Mets don't get Cespedes, they don't sweep the Nats 6 games in August/Sept. That was the season right there. Not just Cespedes himself, but how he made everybody in the lineup around him better, too.

Without him the offense is better, but not great. He vanished in the World Series and so did the Mets offense.

[Guest themetfairy]

Lefty Specialist wrote: If the Mets don't get Cespedes, they don't sweep the Nats 6 games in August/Sept. That was the season right there. Not just Cespedes himself, but how he made everybody in the lineup around him better, too. Without him the offense is better, but not great. He vanished in the World Series and so did the Mets offense.

This. He made everyone around him better for that period of time when he was the hottest thing in baseball.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Lefty Specialist wrote: If the Mets don't get Cespedes, they don't sweep the Nats 6 games in August/Sept. That was the season right there. Not just Cespedes himself, but how he made everybody in the lineup around him better, too.

Ah, so. The Jeter Conjecture.

Protection, by all measures, appears to be a myth. And unless I missed a human interest story or seven about it, Cespedes wasn't coaching BP or anything. So... yeah, call me a non-magic man.

Impossible to untangle, but if everyone else did what they did, the Mets still do the Dew.

[Guest d'Kong76]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Ah, so. The Jeter Conjecture.

Oh. Snap.

[TransMonk]

Yeah, I'm not buying it. I don't think it was Cespedes alone that the lineup was rallying around. It was a complete and necessary team effort.

If the end of the season was re-played 10,000 times without Cespedes given all of the scenarios that could have played out based on any number of the varying conditions that need to be taken into account when revising history, I still think the Mets make the playoffs in more than 5001 of those re-plays.

I would even take it a step further and propose that it is maybe not likely, but certainly possible the Mets could have won the 2015 World Series had Cespedes (.293 OPS in the series and misplay in Game 1) never been traded to the team.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's impossible to say, of course, but I voted yes, although it would have been a closer race and the tension would have been much more, um, tense.

[Centerfield]

As has been said before, there is no right answer. We can't know.

But the Mets won the division going away. If Cespedes is not here, it's a tight race. With talk of collapses and all that. So whereas with Cespedes, we win that division handily, without him, it's 50/50. At least.

I tend to think his presence gave the Mets a feeling of invincibility, that he relaxed everyone around him and demoralized the Nats. I also think the timing of his hits were amazing. But I can't give you any data to support that.

I do want to point out one more thing.

I know everyone gets on him for his defense in the post-season, but in Game 1 of the NLCS he made one of the best (and most important) throws I have ever seen.

It was the top of the 5th and the Cubs had just tied the game at 1. They were threatening still, with Castro on second with 1 out. Baez followed with a single to LF. Cespedes charged it and threw an absolute laser to the plate. Castro was out. The stadium went wild. Suddenly, instead of the Cubs taking the lead and still threatening with 1 out, it remained tied, and allowed the Mets to issue an IBB and get Lester for the last out. Huge, huge play.

If the Cubs take the lead there, do they win? And how daunting is it facing Arrieta down 1-0 at home? We don't know.

I don't know. I have my reservations about Cespedes too. Of the elite bats available this offseason, he was the last option for me, in terms of preference. But the guy is a very good player overall and was absolutely fucking amazing last year.

I'm shocked that this is even a discussion.

[bmfc1]

No.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Wait, we're talking about 2015 here. The Nats would have had to have traded for Cespedes, outbidding the Mets.

[RealityChuck]

Not likely they made it without him. He got hot at exactly the right time, especially in the series in DC. Without him, they lose the second game (well, they almost lost it because of him) and possibly the third and the Mets are only three games up. Suddenly, that final series of the season looms large, and you can bet the Gnats would have smelled blood.

[Centerfield]

Remember, Cespedes went cold after Tom Koehler hit him with a pitch. After that, the Mets entire offense went cold, and stayed cold until the end of the year.

The only exception to that was DudaFest Part II in Cincinnati.

[Guest themetfairy]

Centerfield wrote: Remember, Cespedes went cold after Tom Koehler hit him with a pitch.

That ill-educated brute!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

themetfairy wrote: Centerfield wrote: Remember, Cespedes went cold after Tom Koehler hit him with a pitch. That ill-educated brute!

Tom Koehler opted out of a good education.

[ashie62]

Talk of a 3 year Mets Cespedes deal with a one year buyout.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25458275/report-mets-cespedes-talking-three-year-deal-with-opt-out-after-first-year