The Trading-Harvey Thread

[nymr83]

no way on Bautista given age or Votto given that franchise-killing contract.

Here my list:
YES: Trout, Harper, Goldschmidt, McCutchen, Bryant, Rizzo,
I'd have to think about it: Donaldson, Machado, Boegarts, Betts, Stanton
NO (prominent guys who were mentioned): Votto, Pollock, Arenado, Bautista,

[Edgy MD]

I don't think Votto's is necessarily a franchise-killing contract. Eventually, the Mets are going to get locked into such deal with somebody? Why not him?

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Why not him?

Because he's already 32 y/o and the deal has nearly a full decade to go.

[Edgy MD]

He's also one of the best hitters of the last 25 years and has led the league in walks his last four full seasons. Combined with a .311 batting average, it gives him some Bondsian OBPs.

And OBP is a skill that ages better than others. And it's eight guaranteed years left on his deal, not ten.

[Frayed Knot]

Just not big on dealing a top pitcher PLUS committing $200 million* in escalating per/year salaries to a guy starting the season in which he turns 33 and moves to a less hitter-friendly park.




* $199 over eight seasons including the buyout option that gets you out of year nine - otherwise $212/9

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets are going to trade Harvey, I'd want them to get a position player who's under 30 and has at least three, and preferably four, years of team control ahead of him.

And of course, he'd have to be really really good as well.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Just not big on dealing a top pitcher

Me, neither. But it's the Trading-Harvey thread.

Frayed Knot wrote: PLUS committing $200 million* in escalating per/year salaries

Sure, but A-Rod was getting the kind of money in 2003 that this guy will see in the 2020's. Taking the "million" away. If the Mets think Curtis Granderson is worth $16, is it unfathomable that Joey Votto is worth $25?

to a guy starting the season in which he turns 33

You're going at this hard now. He turns 33 on September 10, yeah, but he'll play the bulk of the season as a 32-year-old.

and moves to a less hitter-friendly park.

This is universally true of almost every trade proposed here. But walks travel better than many other offensive traits.

I'm pretty much ready to stand pat (ducks) this offseason, but it seems to me this is the sort of deal the Mets would be looking for if they dangled their Harvey.

[metsmarathon]

If we're going to trade harvey for a guy with a $200m contract, why not keep Harvey and give him the money?

[Edgy MD]

Because good pitching, and excellent pitching in particular, is a lot harder to sustain over a career than outstanding offensive performance.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Sure, but A-Rod was getting the kind of money in 2003 that this guy will see in the 2020's. Taking the "million" away. If the Mets think Curtis Granderson is worth $16, is it unfathomable that Joey Votto is worth $25?

As is usually the case with these type of contracts, it's not the per/year figures that gives me pause it's the length.
If that's a four, five, or maybe even six year deal going forward at those same numbers then I'd have a different take on things.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: Because good pitching, and excellent pitching in particular, is a lot harder to sustain over a career than outstanding offensive performance.

yup. and GMs know this too, so no, we're not getting perennial MVP candidates very much in their prime like Trout or McCutcheon, in exchange for ANY of our pitchers. That's just silly. You'll either get a package of blue chip type prospects, or a 30+ All-star with a big contract (with maybe a lesser prospect or 2). Nobody is giving up an all-star hitter, 27 or younger, with years of team control left, for a great pitcher of a similar age, coming off 1.5 years recently missed due to TJ surgery.

I'd like Mookie Betts, a quality CFer (and 2bman), with power and top of the order speed, 23, with years of control left, very much ready to become the next McCutcheon. Would Boston do that? I doubt it. They'd probably prefer to give up Boegarts, who i'd be interested in, but only if they gave us a good prospect or 2, as well. But that's the kind of deal i'd want to make: somebody young who already has demonstrated major league ability, with high upside that's about to bust out, with long-term control. Carlos Correa, Lindor, Bryant. Certainly preferable to 30+ guys with huge contracts who have already leveled off or are starting to break down.