2015-16 Prospect Season

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: The Sickels List

thats an awfully big block of quote there, why not provide the list but let Sickels get his click to read the comments?

[nymr83]

Nice to see Beccera showing up in so many places, the Dickey Trade is the gift that keeps on giving

[MFS62]

Nymr83 wrote: Nice to see Beccera showing up in so many places, the Dickey Trade is the gift that keeps on giving

Unfortunately, he has been left off the 40 man roster and exposed to the upcoming Rule V Draft. He may be giving his gifts to some other team next year.

Later

[ashie62]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Keith Law filed this from the Arizona Fall League: Mets first baseman Dom Smith is one of the top pure hitting prospects in the minors, and he showed it this week in the Valley with hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball and some outstanding at-bats (as well as a couple where he barked at the ump over some strike calls). I counted eight hard-hit balls in play, none more impressive than the enormous home run he hit to right-center off a slider away from a right-hander, although the broken-bat single he got off a 96 mph fastball in on his hands was almost as stunning given what it says about his hand and wrist strength. Smith's swing is so simple, and despite the lack of home runs in two full seasons in the minors -- both in bad power parks -- there is raw power in there and it's going to come as he moves up the ladder.

He was so bad a year or two ago his ladder was cracking.

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: He was so bad a year or two ago his ladder was cracking.

1) No he wasn't.
2) Even if he was, that's why you don't make final decisions on teenagers playing in the low minors.

The questions around Smith have been about his lack of HR output. But, while he may be destined never to develop the kind of pop seen in top 1B-men, power is often the last thing to come around with a prospect.
In the meantime, while playing in parks known to severely hamper left-handed power (Savannah & PSL), he's been getting hits (.290 career BA to date), getting his doubles (59 over two seasons), getting on base (.350+ OBAs), and playing good defense. I'll take that from a guy who won't turn 21 until the middle of next season playing in leagues where he's usually been ~2.5 years younger than the average position player.

[Edgy MD]

The greater question is Ashie's zeal to bail. First guy on a bandwagon when things are seemingly going well, and first guy off when they seemingly aren't.

Be patient, man. Let things play out. It's the minors.

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus checks in with their Top 101 Prospect List

Steven Matz = 9
Dom Smith = 86
Amed Rosario = 96


1) Corey Seager - SS, Dodgers
2) Byron Buxton - OF, Twins
3) Lucas Giolito - RHP, Nationals
4) J.P. Crawford - SS, Phillies
5) Nomar Mazara - OF, Rangers
6) Julio Urias - LHP, Dodgers
7) Yoan Moncada - 2B, Red Sox
8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers
9) Matz
10) Alex Reyes - RHP, Cardinals

[Centerfield]

Would have hoped Dom Smith would be higher. I guess we have to see if he develops into his power. Surprised to see Rosario on the list. I know the potential is there but he really hasn't proven a thing.

Disappointed not to see Cecchini. I guess the rest of baseball isn't as high on him. Not surprised that Nimmo is not on the list. His stock has really fallen.

I think the list looks pretty barren at first glance, but it would look a lot better with Conforto and Herrera mixed in. Basically the only reason they're not there is because they were too good not to be promoted.

[MFS62]

Here's another list:
http://prospect361.com/prospects/2016-top-100-prospects/

It has Matz lower, but includes Nimmo.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Cecchini is a little strange. A year and a half ago, his defense was treated as a sure thing but there were detractors with regard to his offense. Now his offense has come on strong, but folks are uncertain about his defense.

It's fun (from an objective point of view, anyhow) to see a prospect that the analysts are split on, and the Mets have three, with folks watching Smith, Cecchini, and Rosario and sometimes seeing opposite things. I guess there's some splitting on Nimmo too, with some still faithful that extra base power will come, and others seeing him as over-patient, and getting stuck by making weak contact with two strikes.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Frayed Knot wrote: 8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers

"Did I say Joey Gallo? I'm Joey Callow!"

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: 8) Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers "Did I say Joey Gallo? I'm Joey Callow!"

I heard he's crazy.


zCCOQpx5ux4

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Moncada, Urias, and a lot of the top 50 are projectables from the international signings of the last few years. So many disgruntled Metsies have been most disappointed (pre-Cespedes) in the Mets inability/unwillingness to supplement the pitching with major-league-level free-agent talent, ostensibly for budget reasons. Whereas my biggest "alas"es of late have come when I've seen international-prospect-signings flock again and again to other teams from other large markets; the Dodgers have gorged at that trough, to be sure, but there have been plenty of Moncadas and Eddy Julio Martinezes and such around for anyone willing to dangle a signing bonus that would snag, say, a solid middle reliever for a year.

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: So many disgruntled Metsies have been most disappointed (pre-Cespedes) in the Mets inability/unwillingness to supplement the pitching with major-league-level free-agent talent, ostensibly for budget reasons. Whereas my biggest "alas"es of late have come when I've seen international-prospect-signings flock again and again to other teams from other large markets;

Very much so and I'm surprised this hasn't been a bigger target for the boo-birds than it has -- although, as is often the case with int'l talent, sometimes the emerging stars are those who were targets in the bidding wars as 16 y/o athletic lumps of clay (and/or older Cubans who are in a semi-separate category among Latin talent), but almost as often it seems these now highly-touted prospects were just run of the mill signings who happened to blossom. The Yanx, for instance, made a ridiculous dive into the int'l FA kiddie pool a couple of years ago -- smashing by several multiples the then newly imposed spending limits and incurring all kinds of lux-tax penalties and future restrictions in the process -- and the current view on that haul is that they're not getting much bang for their (zillions of) bucks.

[Frayed Knot]

Tis the season for prospect ratings, fa la la la la ...


MLB.com

Matz - 15
Smith - 51
Rosario - 79
Cecchini - 87




and a very similar top 10 to BP's
1 - Corey Seager
2 - Byron Buxton
3 - Lucas Giolito
4 - Julio Urias
5 - JP Crawford
6 - Orlando Arcia (SS - Brewers)
7 - Yoan Moncata
8 - Dansby Swanson
9 - Joey Gallo
10 - Tyler Glasnow (RHP - Pirates)

[Frayed Knot]

Both Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law came out with their prospect lists on Friday

Law was less bullish on Matz than others (citing durability issues) and ranked him 37th. BA went with 13 which was much closer to where other touts have him.
On the flip side, Law was higher than any of the others on both Dom Smith ("one of the best pure bats") ranking him as the best overall NYM prospect at 29th, and Amed Rosario (42nd).
BA slotted Smith 79th & Rosario 58th


An overall mash-up of four separate lists (BA, BP, MLB, ESPN) shows a Top-15 of:

1 -- Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers
2 -- Byron Buxton, OF, Twins
3 -- Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals
4 -- J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies
5 -- Julio Urias, LHP, Dodgers
6 -- Yoan Moncada, 2B, Red Sox
7 -- Orlando Aria, SS, Brewers
8 -- Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals
9 -- Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers
10 -- Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates
11 -- Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers
12 -- Blake Snell, LHP, Rays
13 -- Trea Turner, SS, Nationals
14 -- Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves
15 -- Steven Matz, LHP, Mets

with Smith at 59th and Rosario 65th



As for all those NL East players in the Top-15:

- we'll almost definitely see Trea Turner to start the year, as a platoon player at minimum, as he got some time as a September call-up last season. Former #13 overall draft pick by SD in 2013 out of NC State, dealt to Washington in a multi player/team deal in Dec 2014.

- and we'll see Lucas Giolito before the year is up although probably not to start as the Nats are likely to limit the workload on him and his already TJ-repaired, 21 y/o arm. Former 16th overall pick by the Nats in 2014 out of HS in California

- J.P. Crawford is just 21 although already has a half-season of AA ball under his belt. Probably won't start the year w/Philly although may be up before the season is out. 16th overall pick in 2013 out of a California HS

- although the #1 overall pick of the 2015 draft, the D'Backs dealt Dansby Swanson to the Braves just six months later in a five player deal involving (RHP) Shelby Miller. A college player for Vanderbilt although originally from nearby Marietta, Georgia (I think 70% of the Braves roster comes through Marietta), he has just a stint in short-season pro ball under his belt so, even with the Braves tradition of aggressive promotion, we're unlikely to see him in the big city in 2016

[Edgy MD]

Law was also cuckoo about Rosario, his rank tempered by the reality that he hasn't caught up to his league yet, but he predicted that Amed could be top ten in a year.

I've come to think it's pretty deceptive that a team's rank should fall based on players "graduating." The idea that one team should score high because of a 21-year-old shortstop in AA, while another should get bupkis because their 21-year-old shortstop prospect already has held his own for three months in the bigs does not feed a particularly accurate picture of the two teams' long-range outlook. I think it would be better to choose an age, and then rank all teams based on the players that they have that haven't reached their 25th birthday or such.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Law was also cuckoo about Rosario, his rank tempered by the reality that he hasn't caught up to his league yet, but he predicted that Amed could be top ten in a year.

It's all about the bat going forward for him.
Already described as a potential "impact player" for defense and speed, merely a decent bat attached to all that on a 20 y/o SS will make one a good prospect. If his offense develops beyond that ... !!

I've come to think it's pretty deceptive that a team's rank should fall based on players "graduating." The idea that one team should score high because of a 21-year-old shortstop in AA, while another should get bupkis because their 21-year-old shortstop prospect already has held his own for three months in the bigs does not feed a particularly accurate picture of the two team's long-range outlooks. I think it would be better to choose an age and rank all teams based on the players that they have that haven't reached their 25th birthday or such.

BP does a list of exactly that for each team - although I'm not sure if they've ever ranked all the teams that way.
They should get to their Mets prospect review in about two weeks.

[MFS62]

There's another De Aza in the organization - a 19 year old infielder, Yeffry De Aza.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=deaza-000yef

Who woulda' thunk it?

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus has their Mets prospect list out and there's a lot of good stuff there.

First of all the individual player profiles are out from behind the pay-wall this year - such as this one for #2 Amed Rosario

2. Amed Rosario, SS
DOB: 11/20/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2” 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2012 out of the Dominican Republic by the New York Mets for $1.75 million.
Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org), #78 (overall)
2015 Stats: .253/.302/.329; 0 HR, 13 SB in 427 PA between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton
Future Tools: 60 glove, 60 arm, 50 run, 50 hit
Role: 55—Above-average regular at shortstop

Amed Rosario is a good example of the folly of trying to project 16-year-old shortstops (and they are all 16-year-old shortstops). When the Mets signed Rosario for a bit under two million dollars in the summer of 2012, scouts raved about his offensive potential, but worried that he might grow off of shortstop. The name Wilmer Flores was invoked as a comp (who himself was famously compared to Miguel Cabrera shortly after he signed). Rosario was already merely an average runner in Kingsport in 2013 at 17, and looked very raw defensively (as you might expect for every 17-year-old shortstop, well, other than the one ranked right below him). Since then though, Rosario has improved by leaps and bounds in the field, and hasn't really filled out as expected. Rosario is still far from a finished project, but he now looks like a good bet to be an everyday shortstop, and potentially an above-average one.

Rosario's bat hasn't seen the same gains as his glove so far as a professional. The Mets have given him a series of aggressive assignments over the past three seasons, but 2015 was by far his stiffest test. He was the youngest player in the Florida State League, and had only played a week or so of full-season ball prior to this past season. He was over-matched for much of the season. Rosario has tinkered with his swing mechanics since he first landed stateside. In rookie ball he had one of the oddest swing paths you'll see, tracing a full circle with his hands as he loaded the swing, and his complex mechanics often left his upper and lower halves out of sync. Since then he has added strength and simplified his load, relying on his strong, quick wrists to generate some gap power. He has some feel for contact, but has struggled with spin from the more advanced arms he has faced. As long as the glove continues to improve, the Mets may keep moving him up the organizational ladder, but it will continue to be tough to get a read on the ultimate offensive ceiling. It is unlikely he will grow into much more than fringe-average raw, and the approach and swing will likely limit how playable it is in games, but the defensive tools should be enough to carry Rosario to a major league role not that dissimilar from “good Alcides Escobar” seasons.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Well, as you’ll see as you read through this list, it’s not the best system for fantasy value. Rosario was a candidate for the Dynasty 101 this year, but just hasn’t shown enough with the bat yet to get there. He can still reach that low-five-category contributor status that his tools hint at, but he just may not be as interesting in fantasy leagues at peak than we thought at this time last year.

Major league ETA: 2018





The overall list itself skews quite young, something that's to be expected from an org that made a number of promotions recently and then thinned things out a bit further with to feed last season's stretch run.

LHP Steven Matz
SS Amed Rosario
SS/2B Luis Carpio
SS Gavin Cecchini
1B Dominic Smith
OF Brandon Nimmo
OF Desmond Lindsay
RF Wuilmer Becerra
RHP Robert Gsellman
C Ali Sanchez

But it also seems to reflect a preference here for tools over more immediate readiness, all of which results in a list that includes three players with (Gulp!) 1997 birthdays!!! Shit, I think there were some here who were discussing NYM baseball over the internet at that time.

They also tack on five additional players who they dub as "interesting", give an 25-and-under Top-10 list (regardless of prospect status), plus give an overall review of the state of the system itself and of the front office.

[MFS62]

Go to MetsMinor.net for an article regarding recent International signings.

Signed and reported as/of 2/22/16:

Shervyen Newton- Inf- Netherlands Pedro Nolasco- of- Dominican Republic Miguel Pinedo- P- Columbia Brian Campusano- P- Dominican Republic Miguel Ramirez- P-Dominican Republic Andres Regnault- C- Venezuela Edison Valdez- OF- Dominican Republic David Lozano- INF- Columbia Jorge Martinez-C- Columbia

As with what FK noted about the Rosario signing, the opinions on these guys may change over time.

Later

[Edgy MD]

MFS62 wrote: Go to MetsMinor.net for an article regarding recent International signings.

Thanks, MetsMinor.net. But you guys might want to go to WorldAtlas.com for info on how to spell Colombia.

[Vic Sage]

Based on all the lists i've seen to date, here's a list (by position) of 50 promising young players (under 25) in our system who are not an anticipated to have a significant role on this year's major league roster:

C- A.Sanchez, Mazeika, Diehl, Brosher
1b - D.Smith, D.Winningham, Oberste
2b - Herrera, Reynolds, McNeil,
SS - Rosario, Cecchini, Carpio, Ramos, Giminez, Guillorme, Guerrero
3b - E.Garcia, Urena, Thompson, K.Hernandez
OF - Nimmo, Lindsay, Beccera, R.Ramirez, Kacmarski,J.Mora,V.Cruzado,R.Cespedes
P - Montero, Morris, Molina, Gsellman, Ynoa, Flexen, Wotell(L), Bowman, Mateo, H.Gonzalez, Oswalt, Aceto, Gibbons, Szapucki(L), Crismatt, J.Simon(L), L.Taylor, Medina, Badamo

Did i miss any?
Who among these players are likely to have a significant major league career, if any?

Edited February 25, 2016 by Guest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Define "significant." The closer they are, the more likely the impact, right? I'm thinking Herrera is a likely contributor for a few years, at least; health allowing, Nimmo and Montero seems like they've got better than a puncher's chance of the same. Rosario's glove seems to give him a similar floor. But significant careers? Hu noes, right?

Edited February 25, 2016 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

Define "significant."

Significant = at least 3 years as a full-time player (or at least 2000 major league plate appearances, or 500 IP)

The closer they are, the more likely the impact, right?

No, the closer they are, the more information we have in order to project. But there are guys further down the list whose ceilings are much higher than guys like Reynolds, who is close but looks to be utility fielder at best and is unlikely to have a "significant" career. I'm not asking who will make an impact SOONEST, but who'll make the GREATEST impact.

I'm thinking Herrera is a likely contributor for a few years, at least; health allowing, Nimmo and Montero seems like they've got better than a puncher's chance of the same.

I would agree, but since guys like Rosario and Dom Smith, and the OF Lindsay, and guys like that, are showing up high on our top prospects lists, so i think we also need to consider the guys who have not already gotten major league ABs or are otherwise right on the cusp.

[Edgy MD]

Luis Carpio, already seemingly gravitating toward second, looks to be sidelined for an extended period of time following surgery on his throwing shoulder last week.

[Edgy MD]

FanGraphs has gotten into the act. The good news is that they go deep and have some names you won't see anywhere else. The perhaps weird news is that, however they crunch their numbers, it's really different. They have a strange ranking system that really bumps lower-level guys with little (or no) professional experience up high, and John Gant, who was widely looked at as a second- or third-tier prospect by most other rankers, was ranked as the Braves' second-best prospect by FanGraphs, and they openly state he would've been the second-best with the Mets too.

Maybe they're doing this right and everybody else is wrong. Hope not, at least with regards to Gant.

Interesting how Marcos Molina remains in the top ten despite being out of the year. And man, it's raining shortstops down on the farm.

Click the link for some pretty thorough analysis all down the line.

1. Steven Matz, LHP
Current Level/Age: MLB/24.8, 6’2/200, R/L
Acquired: Drafted 72nd overall (2nd round) in 2009 out of New York HS by NYM for $895,000 bonus
Previous Rank: 7

2. Desmond Lindsay, OF
Current Level/Age: Low-A/19.2, 6’0/200, R/R
Acquired: Drafted 53rd overall (2nd round) in 2015 out of Florida HS by NYM for $1.1427 million bonus
Previous Rank: NA

3. Amed Rosario, SS
Current Level/Age: Double-A/20.4, 6’2/170, R/R
Acquired: Signed in 2012 out of Dominican Republic by NYM for $1.75 million bonus
Previous Rank: 3

4. Gregory Guerrero, SS, N/A

5. Dominic Smith, 1B, Double-A

6. Gavin Cecchini, SS, Double-A

7. Marcos Molina, RHP, Triple-A

8. Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Single-A

9. Luis Guillorme, SS, Single-A

10. Luis Carpio, SS, Rookie

11. Milton Ramos, SS, Rookie

12. Seth Lugo, RHP, Double-A

13. Andres Gimenez, SS, Rookie

14. Jhoan Urena, 3B, Rookie

15. Brandon Nimmo, OF, Triple-A

16. Eudor Garcia, 3B, Single-A

17. Ali Sanchez, C, Rookie

18. Matt Reynolds, SS, MLB

19. Max Wotell, LHP, Rookie

20. Josh Smoker, LHP, Triple-A

21. Akeel Morris, RHP, MLB

22. Dario Alvarez, LHP, MLB

23. Chris Flexen, RHP, Triple-A

24. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Double-A

25. Robert Gsellman, RHP, Double-A

26. LJ Mazzilli, 2B, Double-A

27. Kevin Kaczmarski, OF, Rookie

28. Mickey Jannis, RHP, Double-A

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Johnson, 2B/3B, Class-A (Interesting profile here)

Quick Hits

Upper level hitters:

• 3B/UTIL Jeff McNeil
  
• 3B David Thompson
  
• CF Raphael Ramirez
  
• OF Ricardo Cespedes
  
• C Patrick Mazeika
  
• OF John Mora
  
  Lower level pitchers:
  
• LHP Thomas Szapucki

[Vic Sage]

8 shortstops out of the top 18 prospects. You figure we'll get SOMEBODY to develop at some point.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You'd think so. Hopefully they keep and commit to the right one!

[Edgy MD]

Apart from the one, there may be a future second-baseman, third-baseman, or center fielder among them.