December 10

[Edgy MD]

December 10 kinda suxx:

New York Mets traded Nolan Ryan, Leroy Stanton, Francisco Estrada and Don Rose to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi on December 10, 1971.

New York Mets traded Mike Scott to the Houston Astros for Danny Heep on December 10, 1982.

December 10 kinda roxx:

New York Mets traded Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans to the Montreal Expos for Gary Carter on December 10, 1984.

But it's never a good day to be Hubie Brooks:

New York Mets traded Hubie Brooks to the California Angels for Dave Gallagher on December 10, 1991.

I think December 10 and 11 is most relevant today for the 12/10/2008 signing of Francisco Rodriguez and the 12/11/2008 trade for J.J. Putz that marks the last stand for Omar Minaya.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: December 10 kinda roxx: New York Mets traded Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans to the Montreal Expos for Gary Carter on December 10, 1984.

If they pulled off a trade like that this post-season we'd be World Series contenders in 2015.

[G-Fafif]

Centerfield wrote: December 10 kinda roxx: New York Mets traded Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans to the Montreal Expos for Gary Carter on December 10, 1984. If they pulled off a trade like that this post-season we'd be World Series contenders in 2015.

Murphy, Flores, den Dekker and Montero to the Rockies for Tulowitzki a rough equivalent.

[Edgy MD]

I guess the equivalent would be Travis d'Arnaud, Ruben Tejada, Matt den Dekker, and Rafael Montero for Troy Tulowitzki, but a version of Troy Tulowitzki without injury questions, Coors Field questions, and not locked into a prohibitive contract. I don't know that there's a possible match out there.

I generally think they are World Series contenders as is, but which cleanup hitter playing a premium defensive position do you suppose that they might back the truck up to get?

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: I guess the equivalent would be Travis d'Arnaud, Ruben Tejada, Matt den Dekker, and Rafael Montero for Troy Tulowitzki, but a version of Troy Tulowitzki without injury questions, Coors Field questions, and not locked into a prohibitive contract. I don't know that there's a possible match out there. I generally think they are World Series contenders as is, but which cleanup hitter playing a premium defensive position do you suppose that they might back the truck up to get?

Tulowitzki.

Carter was 31 when the Mets acquired him and yes, he had been very healthy previously but he was a catcher in his 30s and gave the Mets about 2.5 good seasons before his own age/injury issues. Tulowitzki is a couple of years younger and his prior injuries notwithstanding, I bet he would give more value to the Mets in his 30s than Carter did.

The money shouldn't be an issue with the Mets playing in the New York market. Winning also brings in more money. I say make the deal.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets are World Series contenders, it's only because qualifying for the playoffs in 2015 baseball is markedly different than what it was 30 years ago. I can assure everybody that this Mets team, put back in time to 30 years ago, would not have sniffed a World Series even if you could replay the season Monte Carlo style, say 1,000 times.

Jeez, the '85 Mets, featuring the Great version of Dwight Gooden and three offensive superstars, couldn't even make the playoffs.

[Edgy MD]

Gwreck wrote: The money shouldn't be an issue with the Mets playing in the New York market. Winning also brings in more money. I say make the deal.

A bad contract is a bad contract even if Bernard Madoff never happened. This is a contract that got the GM who negotiated it fired.

It's got seven years and $129 million left on it. Or six years and $118 million. There will be other solutions presenting themselves in the interim.

I certainly agree that winning can beget money just as money can beget winning. But that sure hasn't worked for the Rockies. Any team has to be wary how committed they are to that cycle, this being the anniversary of Omar's last binge/burnout and all.

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: I generally think they are World Series contenders as is

We can assume (fairly, I think, from the Giants) that anyone in the playoffs is a World Series contender.
The Mets will need 88-90 wins to make the playoffs (that's been the cutoff for the wild-card game over the past 3 years).
They had 79 in 2014.

They are going to need big bounceback years from Wright and Granderson, plus improvement from D'Arnaud, plus Harvey producing, plus no backslide from DeGrom or Duda to get those extra 9-11 wins.

Tulowitzki, even in his injury shortened years of 2012 and 2013 was worth more than 5 WAR per year.

[Edgy MD]

So you're saying they're not contenders as is?

There's no doubt he's a very good player. I'm questioning whether his contract is a very good asset.

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: So you're saying they're not contenders as is? There's no doubt he's a very good player. I'm questioning whether his contract is a very good asset.

I think they're contenders if everything goes right in 2015. I think it would be wise to improve the team more. I recognize that the Tulowitzki contract is problematic but I think it's worth acquiring given the potential of winning now.

[Edgy MD]

Well, everybody's a contender if everything goes right. Heck, everybody's a champ if everything goes right.

Let's agree that (1) a lot of things will have to go right, (2) fewer things will have to go right than will have had to have gone right last year, and (3) fewer things will have to go right with Tulowitzki on the roster.

It's just a question of whether bumping up everything for this year compromises the near future too much. If things go wrong with Tulowitzki, that's a six-year concern.

At any rate, I don't see them making a 20% bump in salary for one wounded warrior. I don't know The Plan, but they seem to be very committed to getting the organization at a break-even point before making that sort of investment again. I'd could certainly get behind Tulowitzki, but I'm certainly prepared to see some combination of Flores/Tejada/Reynolds/SomeOtherGuy.

[Centerfield]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If the Mets are World Series contenders, it's only because qualifying for the playoffs in 2015 baseball is markedly different than what it was 30 years ago. I can assure everybody that this Mets team, put back in time to 30 years ago, would not have sniffed a World Series even if you could replay the season Monte Carlo style, say 1,000 times. Jeez, the '85 Mets, featuring the Great version of Dwight Gooden and three offensive superstars, couldn't even make the playoffs.

And interestingly enough, I think this is part of the reason that a trade like this won't go down. Back then, you had to be great. 88 wins wasn't going to get you anywhere. But now, an 88 win team can make the playoffs. And with the 18 rounds of playoffs that now exist, every post-season is a crapshoot. So now, I think the philosophy is not to go big any one year, but to go kinda sorta every year. I wonder if we have seen our last dominant Mets team.

As gwreck said, as constructed, the Mets need a lot of things to break the right way in order to be one of those 88 win teams. I think 84-85 wins is probably a bit more realistic. But who knows. That's why you play the games.

I'm not as sold on Tulo as gwreck is. My move was to get the Joses (Bautista and Reyes) from Toronto. I would have even given up Wheeler to make that happen. But the Cuddyer move will be the "big" move of the offseason. We will get a lefty for the pen, a reclamation bat for the bench, unload a starting pitcher to free up salary and that will be our winter.

[Edgy MD]

Do you think it'll be minor league talent or a living player for the starting pitcher?

[Centerfield]

I know that there is a contingent here who are card-carrying members of TiTTS. The TiTTS philosophy is exciting and fun, but sometimes you can get carried away with TiTTS, and make decisions you regret later on.

I have heard that management is getting pushback from FuPA (Future Planning Association) to hold on to their prospects and pursue a consistent "high end mediocrity" that will keep the franchise on the verge of contention year after year.

Sure, FuPA is not as sexy as TiTTS, but in the end, more sustainable.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Do you think it'll be minor league talent or a living player for the starting pitcher?

I have no idea. I guess it depends on which pitcher (Colon brings back less, Gee brings back more) and what roles Sandy is able to fill via free agency.

Gun to my head, I'd say prospect in the low minors who has some potential to be good.

If I had my way, I'd go to camp with all my starters then start shopping them when pitchers start catching Tommy John Disease in March.

[Edgy MD]

I'm just curious what'll it be. A gen-u-ine starting pitcher is an asset that can usually be counted on to bring back a starting-level offensive player. But the current environment seems to suggest that most teams think they have enough pitching and it's batsmen that are in short supply.

Tough market for Sandy to be shopping BarDilloJon. Maybe he gets back the elusive shortstop. Maybe he gets two prospects. Maybe he gets a little salary relief and bupkis else. I guess I'd put my money on the two prospects.

I've got no problem with the six-starters-until-the-market-turns plan, but Cashen tried that once and ended up with all his cards at the end of the hand.

[Centerfield]

You know what? I'd be ok with that. Run the 6 man rotation to save Harvey innings for September. Pitch Gee and Montero out of the pen and turn Torres into an actual short man.

Eventually someone will go down and need a pitcher. (Maybe even on our team.)

I know that this is the thinking now, that there is plenty of pitching to go around. But with all of these arm injuries, I doubt we would even get out of April before some team comes knocking and asking for a pitcher.

Besides, look at our own rotation:

Harvey: coming off TJ
Wheeler (healthy, we hope. Fingers crossed)
deGrom (healthy, we hope. Fingers crossed)
Colon: 41 years old and kinda chubby
Niese: Rotator cuff concerns, elevated heart rate concerns
Gee: Missed time last year, history of lost time on DL

I think we can agree that it would be good to have some surplus here.

[Edgy MD]

Agreed about the value of surplus. I imagine the team, however, sees their surplus continuing to come from Montero and Syndergaard. And feels that much redundancy may be too much luxury while run scoring is still a challenge.

Pretty cool though. A lot of other teams, and Met teams of the past, would look at their options and feel a lot of pressure to throw Syndergaard in the rotation after a full season of AAA. They go to camp with him as their #8 starter. He was #9 before Hefner went down. Heck, Logan Verrett could also be ahead of him for the moment.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Tough market for Sandy to be shopping BarDilloJon.

That trade might not be made until, at least, Spring Training. Once the pitchers start throwing is when the injuries start happening, and then you'll have teams that suddenly need a major league starter with more urgency than before.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: They go to camp with him as their #8 starter. He was #9 before Hefner went down. Heck, Logan Verrett could also be ahead of him for the moment.

I think Verrett might be taken in the Rule V draft later today.


Later

[Edgy MD]

The moment is the moment.

[Centerfield]

Centerfield wrote: But the Cuddyer move will be the "big" move of the offseason. [crossout]We will get a lefty for the pen, a reclamation bat for the bench[/crossout], unload a starting pitcher to free up salary and that will be our winter.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm thinking that Sean Gilmartin may be that "lefty for the pen"