Shortstop 2015

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd give up Muffy & Gee for Dezzy.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd give up Muffy & Gee for Dezzy.

yeah, that's sorta a gimme.

Of course, I'm not sure the Nationals want either player.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Muffy & Vic Black? They presumably need a replacement for Clippard.

[Edgy MD]

Mets should go all-in for Nats' Desmond & other moves that need to happen soon ... The Mets, ahem, then would be obligated to go all-out to sign Desmond, which is what every other high-revenue team in their position would do.

Go all-in to go all-out!

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets trade Murphy for Desmond, and Desmond becomes the shortstop, then who plays second base? Flores, I'd assume. This trade then wouldn't be about replacing Flores in the lineup, but Murphy.

[Edgy MD]

I thinky people don't find Flores so unthinkable at second.

But of course, so much of the clamoring is really about using "shortstop" to beat up on the team for not being "serious." That article there demands the Mets pay $150 million to Ian Desmond or have the commissioner seize the team. It's stupid. If the team has $150 million to drop, I can think of a lot of other places I would have it spent without thinking too hard.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets trade Murphy for Desmond, and Desmond becomes the shortstop, then who plays second base? Flores, I'd assume. This trade then wouldn't be about replacing Flores in the lineup, but Murphy.

That's been my plan from the start. Not Desmond, necessarily, but some shortstop, paid for with Muffy's $$, allowing Flores and/or Hererra if necessary, to play there. It make a lot of sense for the Mets.

I'm not sure why the Nats would do this however. They are weird.

[metirish]

Desmond is a nice player but fuck me the $$$ amount being thrown out there is silly.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: But reading a Megdal piece about anything these days is like, well... it's like asking an overly-enthusiastic organic chemist about energy production, or snack cake nutrition, or seven-card no-limit Omaha. He'll tell you, "When you boil it down, it's really ALL about carbon," and he'll be right, mostly. But, y'know...

Yeah, but that carbon-centric conversation wouldn't be anywhere near as absurd as all these posts in this thread premised on the delusion that the Mets can afford the eight-figure a year Desmond on a long-term contract. Same with Tulo. All the nitpicking about Tulo's age and durability and whatever his other flaws might be ... as if the Mets could even afford Tulo in his present condition, let alone if he was younger and healthier.

This is like me telling you that the reason I'm not gonna purchase the Dallas Cowboys this coming weekend is mainly because I'd rather not have to spend so much of my time in Texas.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't think an extension is realistic given what we know about how the Wilpons are spending the $$, but maybe not out of the question down the road, particularly if the deal works out.

In the meantime, you could pay for the guy with what they're throwing out there now if they only move to cut ties with 2 guys with no LT futures on this club anyway in Muffy & Gee.

I'm making this deal whether the Nats are with me or not. QUIT HOLDING IT UP IT SANDY!!!!!11

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't think an extension is realistic given what we know about how the Wilpons are spending the $$, but maybe not out of the question down the road, particularly if the deal works out. In the meantime, you could pay for the guy with what they're throwing out there now if they only move to cut ties with 2 guys with no LT futures on this club anyway in Muffy & Gee. I'm making this deal whether the Nats are with me or not. QUIT HOLDING IT UP IT SANDY!!!!!11

Interesting. Me personally, I suspect the Mets have to ditch both Murphy and Gee just to be able to afford the 2015 payroll.

[Guest d'Kong76]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Me personally, I suspect the Mets have to ditch both Murphy and Gee just to be able to afford the 2015 payroll.

Do you really believe "the plan" is go into 2015/16 and still
spend even less and less?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

d'Kong76 wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Me personally, I suspect the Mets have to ditch both Murphy and Gee just to be able to afford the 2015 payroll. Do you really believe "the plan" is go into 2015/16 and still spend even less and less?

To be fair, they'd have to ditch both just to be at/about the same payroll, owing to arbies/other salary increases.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Guess they'll have to dump more than those two then.

[Edgy MD]

Well, we certainly know Gee is on the market, and he may well be exchanged for minor league talent/salary relief. There's been little such buzz about Murphy, however. I tend to think that if the team could swap Muh or Flores for an equal-value shortstop, they would, but that deal has yet to be found.

They probably won't be the first team to field three third basemen in their infield. I mainly hope they hit like three third basemen. Three good third basemen.

I guess it's defensively better than the recent and lamentable days of four first basemen.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Should probably have started a Wilpon's Finances in 2015
thread at the beginning of the year.

[Ceetar]

d'Kong76 wrote: Should probably have started a Wilpon's Finances in 2015 thread at the beginning of the year.

No need.
Unless every thread mentions it we're letting them off easy.

[Centerfield]

I'm intrigued by the end of Rosenthal's article. What can the commissioner do if the owners are not putting forth a large budget team?

How is that actionable?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't think a Commissioner can do shit unless the owners pull a Donald Sterling or worse (and I don't put that past the Wilpons, who are dumb enough to do something stupid like that) but in general the Commish works for Fred + Jeff not the other way around.

[ashie62]

I believe the Mets are committed to Wilmer Flores getting first crack at SS.

Don't assume Dillon Gee is being shopped for a starting SS. I would guess a very good late innings bullpen guy ala Tyler Cippard may be the target.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: ... so much of the clamoring is really about using "shortstop" to beat up on the team for not being "serious." That article there demands the Mets pay $150 million to Ian Desmond or have the commissioner seize the team. It's stupid. If the team has $150 million to drop, I can think of a lot of other places I would have it spent without thinking too hard.

Yeah, BB-Ref's 'Most Similar' list* for Desmond is topped with names such as JJ Hardy, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Juan Uribe, Brandon Phillip & Khalil Greene.
Anyone want to be paying $20 mil/yr for any of those guys in their 30's?

Desmond will hit 30 just before becoming a FA and has seen his OPS+ slip 125 - 113 - 103 over the past three seasons. Still a serious upgrade over whatever we have there for 2015, but when it's framed as an 'All-in or bust' scenario [best prospect PLUS another top prospect PLUS full FA deal or you're not worthy of a franchise] I think that's overstating things more than just a bit.





* Not the greatest judge of like-players IMO, but just a quickie example

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: d'Kong76 wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Me personally, I suspect the Mets have to ditch both Murphy and Gee just to be able to afford the 2015 payroll. Do you really believe "the plan" is go into 2015/16 and still spend even less and less? To be fair, they'd have to ditch both just to be at/about the same payroll, owing to arbies/other salary increases.

What Leiter said. I think the payroll's gonna be at about the same embarrassing level as last year. And because several sources are reporting that the current payroll level projects at about $10M or so more than last year's, the Mets are gonna hafta dump salary to get to the mid 80's.

So I'm not necessarily predicting that 2015 payroll's gonna be even less. But if it was, why do you find this so surprising, or unbelievable? Are you saying that you're OK with a mid-80's payroll, but that you draw the line at anything less? Me, I expect the Mets to have one of baseball's top three payrolls every single season. That's the way it oughtta be, the way it must be, given the team's geographic location.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Edgy MD wrote: ... so much of the clamoring is really about using "shortstop" to beat up on the team for not being "serious." That article there demands the Mets pay $150 million to Ian Desmond or have the commissioner seize the team. It's stupid. If the team has $150 million to drop, I can think of a lot of other places I would have it spent without thinking too hard. Yeah, BB-Ref's 'Most Similar' list* for Desmond is topped with names such as JJ Hardy, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Juan Uribe, Brandon Phillip & Khalil Greene. Anyone want to be paying $20 mil/yr for any of those guys in their 30's? Desmond will hit 30 just before becoming a FA and has seen his OPS+ slip 125 - 113 - 103 over the past three seasons. Still a serious upgrade over whatever we have there for 2015, but when it's framed as an 'All-in or bust' scenario [best prospect PLUS another top prospect PLUS full FA deal or you're not worthy of a franchise] I think that's overstating things more than just a bit. * Not the greatest judge of like-players IMO, but just a quickie example

See, this is where things get all absurd for me. I mean, this whole analysis about why Desmond is too flawed to play shortstop for the Mets given his current price tag. Which the Mets can't afford anyway. And if Desmond was good enough to meet your standards, he'd be that much less affordable.

Isn't it more efficient, more honest, to just recognize that the Mets can't afford Desmond and get on with hoping that their cheap bargain basement shortstop option, whoever that's gonna be, comes through?

[Edgy MD]

I don't think I was dishonest.

[Ceetar]

no, because they could afford Desmond, in a vacuum, if they thought that's what they needed.

Look, if Tulowitzki had Desmond's contract and the Rockies were actually looking to move him like the Nats were, I'd easily give up Syndergaard and a lower level pitching prospect AND say Flores or den Dekker or someone like that to fill a stopgap hole for him. The Mets would be in at that price as well. Besides, Jim Duquette reported that the Mets were closer than was reported on Desmond, so clearly it just went a different way. You can believe whichever leak you want that fits your narrative of course, but so many facts don't jive.

But that's not the case. The MAIN problem right here is that there aren't really any easy answers to upgrade SS. Maybe they could've paid for Hanley despite his growing Not-a-SS'-itis, he wouldn't be worse than Flores defensively. That's where I wonder about payroll levels, not with guys like Drew and Desmond and Kang.

[metsmarathon]

as far as a desmond/murphy swap goes, [u:3igu58iw]offensively[/u:3igu58iw], they're not all too dissimilar in terms of overall production. desmond gives you a little more power and a greater number of home runs, but at a lower batting average and obp.

last year, they had nearly identical OPSs, with desmond having a whopping .008 edge, albeit with more stolen bases. factor in home parks, and, well, murphy might've actually been the better offensive player. in fact, murphy had the better OPS+, 111 vs 103.

according to fangraaphs, last year, desmond produced 11.2 batting runs above average, while murphy produced 10.8 runs above average.

the steamer projections for both have desmond at 3.8 runs above average for 2015 and murphy at 3.4, while, interstingly, the crowdsourced "fans" projection has murphy at 10.9 runs to desmond's 10.3. the fan projections are typically less conservative, while steamer runs more to the conservative side.

regardless, the point is, that desmond wouldn't be much if at all of an upgrade to our offense if we swap him out for murphy, and move flores (or whatever) to second.

defensively, of course, desmond is a better fielder at short than murphy is at second. but desmond isn't really a great fieldr, i don't htink. for his career, he's slightly negative in uzr/150 at -0.8, and last year was 0.1. with an incredibly small sample size, flores was a plus defender at short, with a uzr/150 of 12.4. is that real? i have no idea. uzr thinks he's been a positive defender everywhere the past two years save 11 bad innings at 2b in 2013. lets pretend flores is an average defender for this exercise.

so, what would hte net result be? we'd have basically the same offense with desmond/flores instead of flores/murphy, with the production coming in slightly different flavors. we'd be getting maybe about hte same defense at short (but possibly worse) and we'd be getting average (or maybe better) defense at second instead of relatively poor defense.

does that really move the needle? a sum total of a slight upgrade at second base defense? burn down the wilpons for not getting this done NOW!!! TRADE ALL THE THINGS!!!!!

meh.

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: See, this is where things get all absurd for me .. this whole analysis about why Desmond is too flawed to play shortstop for the Mets given his current price tag.

Yeah, that's not remotely what I'm saying.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I don't have a problem with his salary, but I think it would be crazy to trade our top pitching prospect for one guaranteed year of a middling middle infielder.

Like with the last infamous prospect trade, it wasn't that we traded the prospect, it was that all that we got in return for our top prospect was Victor Zambrano.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't think a Commissioner can do shit unless the owners pull a Donald Sterling or worse (and I don't put that past the Wilpons, who are dumb enough to do something stupid like that) but in general the Commish works for Fred + Jeff not the other way around.

Are the Wilpon's still borrowing money from MLB? If so, and they really need that loan to keep the team afloat, then the commish does have plenty of leverage over their ability to keep the team.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets closed the MLB loan with the cash influx they got from the minority shares back in 2012.