When you turn pro she'll let you know (2014 draft)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Draft 1 week from today.

Mets pick 10th. Rumored to be looking at college position players for 1st pick, here are 3 to consider:

Trea Turner, NC State SS: Apparently a big time stolen base, table-setter type, good enough D to stay at SS, some questions about his bat.

Michael Conforto, Oregon State OF: Jock (son of Penn State linebacker and Olympic synchronized swimmer), good LH power, left fielder only, should be ready for MLB soon.

Bradley Zimmer, U of San Francisco OF: Brother of Royals top prospect Kyle Zimmer. LH hitter, good power and maybe good enough to play CF.

Many of the mock drafts have Turner gone when the Mets pick and slot Conforto/Zimmer more realistic for Mets. If they wanna go for a pitcher they've been rumored to be looking at LSU righty Aaron Nola and Hartford lefty Sean Newcombe, although they are expected to be gone when the Mets pick according to this "consensus" mock:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/5/29/5759878/updated-consensus-2014-mlb-mock-draft

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[MFS62]

The best part of this draft to me is that after it, we could find out who the PTBNL is from the Ike Davis deal. That player might be better than anyone they get in this year's draft. And, they'll be able to sign Kendry Morales without giving up a draft pick.

Later

[Ceetar]

Except they probably already have a 1Bman better than Morales.

Looking forward to completing that trade though.

[Edgy MD]

I think we may be setting ourselves up for disappointment if we're committed to the notion that the compensation is going to be better than any player the team drafts.

I mean, he'll likely be further along, and better in that sense. But so is Jose Valverde.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I think we may be setting ourselves up for disappointment if we're committed to the notion that the compensation is going to be better than any player the team drafts. I mean, he'll likely be further along, and better in that sense. But so is Jose Valverde.

Probably on par with a 2nd/3rdish round pick from last year is the better comp.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: I mean, he'll likely be further along, and better in that sense.

That's kinda' what I meant, too. They'd already have a handle on how well he has adapted to the pros, rather than an untested draftee.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: Probably on par with a 2nd/3rdish round pick from last year is the better comp.

Which, unless it's great chopped liver, is better than chopped liver.

Nola, Newcomb, and Evansville lefty Kyle Freeland do seem like solid, likely possibilities that would move quickly through the system (1-2 years?), which might be especially desirable considering the org's anticipated "window"-opening.

Slightly further away, probably, but maybe only slightly? Grant Holmes, a high school righty with "now" stuff, a surprisingly-high floor, and a fantastic white-kid afro.

[Frayed Knot]

The most common names I've seen connected to the Mets to date have been the OF Conforto or LHP Newcomb (especially Newcombe) -- although a lot of this type of speculation turns on stuff like; 'well the Mets have taken three straight HS position players so I think they'll go college pitcher this time'

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Mets never drafted 10th overall.

With the 11th overall pick, the Mets drafted:

2013 - Dominic Smith.

With the 9th overall pick, the Mets drafted:

2005 - Mike Pelfrey
1992 - Preston Wilson.

[Frayed Knot]

10th Overall picks through the years

1994 - Jaret Wright (Indians)
1995 - Chad Hermansen (Pirates)
1996 - Eric Chavez (Oakland)
1997 - Jon Garland (Cubs)
1998 - Carlos Pena (Rangers)
1999 - Ben Sheets (Brewers)
2000 - Joe Torres (Angels)
2001 - Chris Burke (Astros)
2002 - Drew Meyer (Rangers)
2003 - Ian Stewart (Rockies)
2004 - Thomas Diamond (Rangers)
2005 - Cameron Maybin (Tigers)
2006 - Tim Lincecum (Giants)
2007 - Madison Bumgarner
2008 - Jason Castro (Astros)
2009 - Drew Storen (Nationals)
2010 - Michael Choice (A's)


Some pretty good players here along with some more marginal ones and others still a work in progress.
Eric Chavez is the career WAR leader (37.4) followed by Lincecum, Pena, Sheets & Garland.
Two nice back-to-backs by the Giants there with two CYs out of Lincecum and now Bumgarner taking over as Timmy stumbles
Only Joe Torres (LHP) never reached the majors although was still plugging away in Independent Leagues as of last year at age 30



Going back even further we find:
Carl Everett - Yanx, 1990
Charles Johnson - Expos, 1989
Robin Ventura - White Sox, 1988
Mark McGwire - A;s, 1984
Tim Wallach - Expos, 1979
Ted Simmons - Cardinals, 1967

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Really solid track record of late with that 10th... a reflection of better scouting, safer strategy, or just random noise?

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Really solid track record of late with that 10th... a reflection of better scouting, safer strategy, or just random noise?

I asked the staff of BA during an on-line Q&A about a year ago whether MLB teams were getting better at drafting due to better info, better scouting, or just plain experience through trial and error.
Their answer was that they tended to believe things had gotten at least marginally better but at the same time admitted that it was a tough thing to prove.

In this case, with such a small sample and a random limit of just #10 overall picks, any trend is probably just noise.

[ashie62]

Please draft a college bat...

[Edgy MD]

Please draft the player that you think has the best chance of helping you the most. over the long term, without regards to position, except insofar as position can be considered a factor with regards to the bottom line determination of who can help you the most.

Thank you and best of luck to you.

[Frayed Knot]

Please draft a college bat...

I agree ... unless they see something else they like better then draft that guy instead.


On the other hand, BA thinks you might get your wish as their current 'Mock' sez:

10. METS: The Mets have been tight-lipped, but the teams around them believe they remain oriented on a bat, with [NC State SS Trea] Turner a top target. That�s even though New York has drafted a hitter in the first round five times in six selections since 2008. Pacific Northwest scout Jim Reeves signed one of them already [Nimmo], and he could get another this year.
Oregon State outfielder Michael Conforto was our Mets pick in the first two mock drafts, and we�re going back to him here.
Projected Pick: OF Michael Conforto

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Keith Law had Conforto going as high as #4 to the Cubs, he said last nite on TV.

[Frayed Knot]

Mock of the Day, from mlb.com's Keith Law this time, links the Mets to LHP Sean Newcomb from U Hartford.

More generally he says that the Mets priorities are, in some order, Newcomb, Oregon ST OF Michael Conforto, and NC State SS Trea Turner.
If those options are gone, fallbacks are Vanderbilt RHP Taylor Beede (I heard he's venerable) or U-San Fran OF Bradley Zimmer

[Frayed Knot]

Thumbnail scouting reports on all the upper ranked choices including (if you believe the draftniks) those most likely to be chosen by the Mets at #10 overall.


Newcomb � 6� 5�- 240
Newcomb works at 90-94 mph and reaches as high as 97 with his fastball. His best secondary pitch is his slider, a low-80s breaker with some bite. He also uses a curveball and changeup. He's still learning to repeat his delivery and locate his pitches consistently, but there aren't many left-handers who can match his velocity.

Zimmer � 6� 4� - 185
Zimmer has a nice package of tools, with his bat standing out the most. He has a sweet left-handed stroke, and he manages the strike zone and recognizes pitches well. His body has enough strength and leverage to possibly produce plus power if he were to add some loft to his swing, though he's content to spray line drives all over the field for now.
He enhances his solid speed with keen instincts, which make him an asset on the basepaths and in the outfield. He has a chance to play center field, and if not, his strong arm will fit well in right. Older brother Kyle (a pitcher) was #5 overall in 2012 by KC

Beede � 6� 4� - 215
When Beede is at his best, he can display three above-average pitches. His fastball usually operates around 92-94 mph and can clock as high as 97. His sharp curveball and his changeup both arrive in the low 80s, playing off his fastball well.
The biggest question with Beede is whether he'll be able to harness his quality stuff. His delivery can get out of sync. He can be unhittable but also has problems finding the strike zone.

Turner � 6� 1� - 170
His top-of-the-scale speed with an ability to make contact and control the strike zone, he has the tools to become a quality leadoff hitter at the Major League level. The key will be toning down his swing, which can get long, and his approach, which can get a little out of control. He can get home run-conscious and would be best served by focusing on getting on base, where his speed and instincts make him a prime basestealing threat.
A third baseman as a freshman, Turner moved to shortstop in 2013. He has the quickness and arm strength to stick at shortstop, something few college players do, though he needs to improve his defensive consistency.

Conforto � 6� 2� - 217
Conforto�s signature tool is his left-handed power, which could produce 25-plus homers on an annual basis once he gets to the Major Leagues. He doesn't get cheated at the plate, taking a big uppercut hack that produces nice loft on his drives.
While he's willing to take a walk when pitchers won't challenge him, Conforto swings and misses too much to hit for a high average. Most of his value comes from his bat, because while he has some athleticism, he's a left fielder with subpar speed, range and arm strength.

[Edgy MD]

If that's all I knew, I think I'd go Zimmer.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Based on that, I do lean ZImmerish. (Or Turnery.)

[Frayed Knot]

BA's final Mock throws a wild card into the mix in Florida HS 2B Forrest Wall - someone that MLB didn't have slated until the 40s in their recent review


Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 35 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50
Wall is one of the best high school hitters in the Draft class, but two distinct shoulder injuries are the cause of some concern for scouts. He separated his left shoulder in March, forcing him to miss a few games, but an injury to his right shoulder that required labrum surgery in 2011 is more troubling. His throwing still hasn't fully recovered, and he's limited to second base as a result.

Wall's bat is good enough to make up for the concerns about his arm. He has a quick left-handed swing and makes consistent line-drive contact. He has a surprising amount of power for his size and out-homered Jose Bautista in the first round of a charity home run derby in February.

Wall is a good athlete with well-above-average speed.

[Vic Sage]

I hope they'd go for college position players. Zimmer sounds alot like Nimmo, so i'd prefer a power bat like Conforto or a true leadoff SS like Turner, over pitchers like Newcombe or HS prospects like Wall.
That being said, TTBPA*... always.

*take the best player available

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm with Vic on this one. I want them to take the best available player, and I hope that player is a college position player. I'm particularly hoping for a power-hitting outfielder.

[seawolf17]

And I'm hoping that at some point in the middle rounds, we PICK A FUCKING GUY FROM STONY BROOK THIS YEAR.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Wall's bat is good enough to make up for the concerns about his arm. He has a quick left-handed swing and makes consistent line-drive contact. He has a surprising amount of power for his size

When I saw that I remembered the Baseball Digest Rookie Report in which one scout said that Bud Harrelson had "Good power for a shortstop".
They also said, when Jose Reyes was at A ball, that "when he fills out, many of those doubles will turn into home runs".
Enough projecting/ wishful thinking.
Let's just draft the best player available.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Gotta disagree. The best player at 21 or 18 or 16 is rarely the best player at 25.

Projecting is part of a scout's job. Citing two cases of supposed failure (and I'd say one of them was perfectly accurate, as Reyes has over 100 career homers) hardly discredits the cause.

[Frayed Knot]

EVERY pick involves projection of some sort.

And Reyes has had 6 seasons of double-digit HRs which, considering he's only managed 7 seasons of full-time play (500 or more ABs), means they weren't wrong.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: Gotta disagree. The best player at 21 or 18 or 16 is rarely the best player at 25. Projecting is part of a scout's job. Citing two cases of supposed failure (and I'd say one of them was perfectly accurate, as Reyes has over 100 career homers) hardly discredits the cause.

I know. Didn't say the Reyes one wasn't good.
But I'd rather they select a player we won't have to wait too long to see develop.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: ... I'd rather they select a player we won't have to wait too long to see develop.

The problem with that 'strategy' is that it essentially tosses out all HS players - and that's where a lot of the true prodigies are.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: ... I'd rather they select a player we won't have to wait too long to see develop. The problem with that 'strategy' is that it essentially tosses out all HS players - and that's where a lot of the true prodigies are.

Yes, but at my age, I'd prefer not to have to wait too long.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/draft-picks-increasingly-on-fast-track-to-mlb?ymd=20140604&content_id=78157250&vkey=news_mlb
Later