2014 IPP: Bobby Parnell

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

One of the Mets biggest health-related questions this year is how well Bobby Parnell will recover from his neck surgery last year. Will he be able to hold down the closer job throughout the season? I'm going to opt for optimism and say that he will. I'll predict 32 saves.

[Ceetar]

Best pitcher in the bullpen again. unless they do put Mejia there? whatever. He's the relief ace.

I think he'll give up a few more home runs this year though. For a guy that throws a billion miles an hour he certainly doesn't give up a lot of bombs, only 1 last year. I think that regresses some and leads to a couple of bad innings here and there, which is certainly better than giving up soft grounders that fielders boot and blow saves.

8-3, 2.85 ERA, 35 SV, 65 IP, 60 K, 3 HR. He'll strike out Bryce Harper and Jason Heyward (Separate games probably) to end a game. Valverde teaches him a "closer move" to do after his saves this year.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A few more home runs. A little-- LITTLE-- precautionary time missed when there's an arm or neck issue in July. But otherwise... sweet chin music.

53 G, 55 1/3 IP, 2.68 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 36 S, 4 HR allowed

[Frayed Knot]

One hopes the weight of his mountain-man beard doesn't aggravate his healing neck.

[Zvon]

Every save guess gets higher. 37 saves!

[Guest cooby classic]

On at least one of my fantasy teams so I'll go for 45 saves! Go bobby!

So is Neise btw. Missed Colon by this much "--"

[Edgy MD]

A 45-save season would be a nu Met record, and probably indicate a relatively successful season for the team.

[Guest cooby classic]

Exactly! So be it.

[Vic Sage]

He gives up a moon shot in April and, as he twists his head to follow the ball's trajectory out of the park, he re-injures his neck. Out till August. Meanwhile Valverde and Black have blown so many saves, the Mets are on a 75-win pace. Parnell comes back and throws well in September, when Mets are safely out of the running, and remains a question mark going into 2015.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Wins the Rolaids Relief Award. Helmet trophy displayed in dad's firehouse.

[MFS62]

60 games, 4-4, 2.89 ERA, 28 of 34 save opportunities.
If he injures his neck again, it will be looking over his shoulder at Familia, who could take the closer role from him going into 2015.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

To have save situations, you need games to be close and in your favor come the 9th inning. This isn't a team that'll be brimming with those opportunities.

Parnell will be okay. 3-4, 3.00, 28 saves, 4 HR allowed.

[Edgy MD]

History suggests that bad teams get about the same number of save opportunities as good teams.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: History suggests that bad teams get about the same number of save opportunities as good teams.

Makes sense really. You only get save opportunities when you're winning, so winning teams should get slightly more, but the difference is probably mitigated by good teams outscoring their opponents by a lot more often.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And the bad teams must blow the saves more often than the good ones.

[Edgy MD]

Maybe, but if the late inning relief isn't the bad team's issue, then all other things are pretty close to equal.

Bad bullpens can actually increase the number of save opportunities. Bad bullpens can blow a save two or three times in a game.

[Guest d'Kong76]

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[bigpurple:18u0ffsi]All Star[/bigpurple:18u0ffsi]

[Edgy MD]

Tweets coming down that his fastball is sitting at 89-90.

That's not a good seat.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Tweets coming down that his fastball is sitting at 89-90. That's not a good seat.

I caught the end of the game on Saturday and Ron said 92 a couple of times.

[Guest cooby classic]

Vic Sage wrote: He gives up a moon shot in April and, as he twists his head to follow the ball's trajectory out of the park, he re-injures his neck. Out till August. Meanwhile Valverde and Black have blown so many saves, the Mets are on a 75-win pace. Parnell comes back and throws well in September, when Mets are safely out of the running, and remains a question mark going into 2015.

Laughed when I read this, but when you're right, you're right.

Not so sure about the September part though.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's the Baseball Prospectus entry from its 2014 annual, released just before last season began:

Oh, and it was all going so well, too. Parnell was following up his breakout 2012 with an even better 2013 until August, when a herniated disc in his neck required season-ending surgery. By now, though, we know what he is - the fastball doesn't miss quite as many bats as the velocity might indicate, but that doesn't matter because the contact is always on the ground. One possible monkey wrench: Parnell allegedly dropped 30 pounds following surgery. Going by his listed weight, that puts him at 170 pounds, which might not be enough to drop and drive.