2014 IPP: Jon Niese

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

I'm concerned about Jon Niese's continuing arm troubles, but I'm going to choose to be optimistic that any injuries he has in 2014 will be of the short-term nagging variety. 30 starts. 3.45 ERA, 13 wins, Schaefer Mets Pitcher of the Year.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm also concerned about Niese and his shoulder.

I kinda see him as a smaller scale disaster of the Davis and Tejada variety -- at least it's injury and not suckiness at the root of it.

Doesn't get a whole year in. 5-6, 3.90 in 19 starts. Whiff rate slows then plummets.

[Edgy MD]

I tell you though, as much of a humanitarian as Terry is, if there's anything he and Warthen have shown no patience with, it's folks (particularly pitchers) saying they are healthy when they are not. If he's showing impingement and/or a decline in velocity, he'll be out of there faster than you can say "John Maine." There are just too many enticing options and too little cultural patience going around right now.

[Ceetar]

3.8 ERA over 180 IP. (12-9) 142 Ks.


hits .201/.260/.270 and runs into that rare pitcher home-run.

[smg58]

Gets hurt early, opens the door for Montero. Comes back (displacing Dice-K) and finishes with a 3.70 ERA over 120 IP.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Shoulder issues are NO way to set expectations high in your ostensible prime. Great-- like, GREAT-- early, then a slightly-less-steep Johan-in-June-2012 act. I worry about the future beyond that.

19 GS, 119 IP, 8-6 record, 4.39 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 89 K, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

Edited March 10, 2014 by Guest

[Guest d'Kong76]

6 wins, misses a lot of time on DL

[MFS62]

8-7, 4.12, 135 IP, misses at least 45 days to the DL.

Later

[Centerfield]

I think he'll be really good if he stays healthy. Which is only slightly more of a prediction than "I think he'll be really good if he plays really good."

I'll go for it. 12-9. ERA under 4.00 Only miss a start or two here and there with "dead arm" or "fatigue". No DL trips.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Niese going now vs. Cardinals. gave up 2 hits and a walk in the first inning, and a[crossout:10o82jl6]walk, HR and two singles (so far)[/crossout:10o82jl6] all that and a two-run double in the 2nd.

[crossout:10o82jl6]2[/crossout:10o82jl6]4-1 Cards (Satin HR for us vs Wainwright)

[Vic Sage]

not feeling it -- 5-9, 4.5 era, DL.

[ashie62]

Starts on DL...

[Zvon]

He'll struggle to start and kinda even out, with a few bright spots. 9-11, 3.63.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Uh-oh…

Michael J. Fensom/The Star-Ledger wrote: Jonathon Niese, a left-hander and candidate to be the Mets’ Opening Day starter, left his second spring training start Sunday with what the Mets called discomfort in his left elbow.

[Frayed Knot]

Rubin: Niese will fly to New York on Sunday night and undergo an MRI with team doctor David Altchek at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan on Monday.
Jonathon Niese doesn't believe the elbow discomfort he suffered Sunday is significant [he] indicated he initially injured it 10 days ago in an intrasquad game.

He said the discomfort is in the back of the elbow, not in the vicinity of the forearm ligaments that can lead to Tommy John surgery. He had been taking anti-inflammatory medication for 10 days, and added that the elbow did not pose a problem during his 2014 Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday. It began posing a problem in the second inning Sunday when he hyperextended it on a pitch.
"It's the back of the elbow, which is good," Niese said. "I'm almost 100 percent sure it's nothing serious like Tommy John or anything. It's just a little discomfort. I wanted to go back out there. It's something that I could definitely pitch through.


I don't know about you, but it's always comforting to me when the patient pronounces it not serious, especially so when he does it before the examination takes place.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Maybe we shouldn't trade our young pitching for a shortstop after all.

[Ceetar]

Rubin: Niese will fly to New York on Sunday night and undergo an MRI with team doctor David Altchek at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan on Monday. Jonathon Niese doesn't believe the elbow discomfort he suffered Sunday is significant [he] indicated he initially injured it 10 days ago in an intrasquad game. He said the discomfort is in the back of the elbow, not in the vicinity of the forearm ligaments that can lead to Tommy John surgery. He had been taking anti-inflammatory medication for 10 days, and added that the elbow did not pose a problem during his 2014 Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday. It began posing a problem in the second inning Sunday when he hyperextended it on a pitch. "It's the back of the elbow, which is good," Niese said. "I'm almost 100 percent sure it's nothing serious like Tommy John or anything. It's just a little discomfort. I wanted to go back out there. It's something that I could definitely pitch through. I don't know about you, but it's always comforting to me when the patient pronounces it not serious, especially so when he does it before the examination takes place.

I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff..

[Edgy MD]

Ashie62 wrote: Starts on DL...

Adam Rubin wrote: DL expected for Niese to open season

Well, that's two opening day starters down.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Starts on DL... Adam Rubin wrote: DL expected for Niese to open season Well, that's two opening day starters down.

Not changing my projections.

But if this is true (depends strongly on if he makes his next start though arm strength will be an issue given he only threw 2) we can now debate who should be the guy. Wheeler is the logical, but if you're innings capping him, you don't get any extra starts out of him by doing that.

[Edgy MD]

I think Colon is certainly equally logical, if not moreso.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd give it to Gee. Let him have a pat on the back for the nice way he rebounded from his bad start last year.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff..

That stuff is for temporary relief, not continual usage. You can't just simply take it forever.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

On the bright side, this could really jelp some other rotation jopefuls' chances.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't understand why he _stopped_ taking the anti-inflammatories? I mean, he's got that partially torn rotator cuff.. That stuff is for temporary relief, not continual usage. You can't just simply take it forever.

so is Toradol. These are ballplayers we're talking about.

I thought he was on some sort of regiment though, but I can see where he'd not take them in the offseason. Perhaps periods like this are just what's going to be the norm for him. Perhaps the elbow pain is a side effect of altering mechanics slightly to adjust for other pain. Guess we'll see. sounds like it might be minor, but..

[Frayed Knot]

Well I'm going to refrain from playing Web-MD about conditions and treatments I know little about; you're free to continue all you want.
What I do know, however, is that taking cortisone for a year or for months on end is neither good for you nor is it some kind of magical injury preventer, so acting as if this past weekend's results were preventable by some easily followed routine is just silly.

[Edgy MD]

And that's why you don't get to train the Oakland Raiders.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Lots of tweets saying he's OK, no damage, resume throwing in 48 hours.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well I'm going to refrain from playing Web-MD about conditions and treatments I know little about; you're free to continue all you want. What I do know, however, is that taking cortisone for a year or for months on end is neither good for you nor is it some kind of magical injury preventer, so acting as if this past weekend's results were preventable by some easily followed routine is just silly.

I wasn't acting like anything, just curious since the reports I see are boring "this is what just happened" reports without the historical context. Was wondering if anyone remember what was going on last year without digging through a bunch of google results.

[Zvon]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Lots of tweets saying he's OK, no damage, resume throwing in 48 hours.

Whew.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My sigh of relief is a small one. Niese's shoulder was cleared just two weeks ago. I feel like this good news today means that he'll be okay until his next MRI in early April.