First Base, 2014

[Edgy MD]

2013 Guys:

• Ike Davis
  
• Lucas Duda
  
• Josh Satin
  
• Justin Turner
  
• Daniel Murphy
  
• Zach Lutz
  
• Andrew Brown

2014 Leading Internal Candidates:

• Ike Davis
  
• Josh Satin

2014 Potential Position Switchers:

• Lucas Duda
  
• Daniel Murphy
  
• Zach Lutz

All appeared at first in 2013, but were primarily stationed elsewhere. Any of them might potentially find first to be a primary assignment, depending on where the chips fall.

2014 Fringey Internal Candidates:

• Wilmer Flores
  
• Eric Campbell
  
• Allan Dykstra (heal fast!)

You Snooze, You Lose:

• Adam Lind (.288 / .357 / .497 // .854 in 521 PA - 132 OPS+)
  Signed by Blue Jays (picked up opton) 1 year, 7 mllion

Remaining Free Agents:

• Mike Napoli (.259 / .360 / .482 // .842 in 578 PA - 129 OPS+)
  
• Corey Hart (.270 / .334 / .507 // .841 in 622 PA - 120 OPS+ in 2012)
  
• Kendrys Morales (.277 / .336 / .449 // .785 in 657 PA - 123 OPS+)
  
• James Loney (.299 / .348 / .430 // .778 in 598 PA - 118 OPS+)
  
• Mike Morse (.215 / .270 / .381 // .651 in 337 PA - 84 OPS+)
  
• Justin Morneau (.259 / .323 / .411 // .734 in 635 PA - 103 OPS+)
  
• Paul Konerko (.244 / .313 / .355 // .669 in 520 PA - 80 OPS+)
  
• Mark Reynolds (.220 / .306 / .393 // .699 in 504 PA - 96 OPS+)
  
• Jeff Baker (.279 / .360 / .545 // .905 in 175 PA - 143 OPS+)
  
• Carlos Pena (.207 / .321 / .346 // .668 in 328 PA - 86 OPS+)
  
• Casey McGehee (.217 / .284 / .358 // .643 in 352 PA - 77 OPS+)
  
• Lyle Overbay (.240 / .295 / .393 // .688 in 486 PA - 87 OPS+)
  
• Casey Kotchman (.000 / .048 / .000 // .048 in 21 PA - -85 OPS+; 2012 Numbers: .229 / .280 / .333 // .612 in 500 PA - 72 OPS+)
  
• Yuniesky Betancourt (.212 / .240 / .355 // .595 in 49 PA - 60 OPS+)

Seems the Mets could gobble up a bunch of ex-Dodgers or a bunch of ex-Brewers. The 2013 Yankees have also generously donated a bunch of names to this list. Anyhow, a lot of options remain available, and perhaps a good chance to get creative, but making it perhaps not the best season for the Mets to be flush with underwhelming options at first.

How do you see/would you like the see the things playing out at first for the team?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

With the year he had last year, Mongo Morse seems like an interesting cheapo-route Show Me sign, don't he?

[Edgy MD]

Kind of. Depending on how cheapo. They're already betting on Young to bounce back, and it's hard to see anything in Morse that you aren't getting in Davis.

If they're dipping in the free-agent pool, I'd guess it would be for a stabilizing candidate, not a(nother) mercurial one.

[Benjamin Grimm]

How much money is Loney expected to get? I figure if they sign a decent first baseman, maybe they trade Davis and/or Duda for a shortstop who's better than Tejada, a standard that shouldn't be at all hard to meet.

[Edgy MD]

Seems to be about five genuine candidates in that pool. Can there be enough suitors to bid them up?

On the face of it, that looks like a buyer's market. Although every AL team could always use an extra firstbaseman to park at DH.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

Kendrys Morales is my Choice for an impact bat. Trade Ike and a pitcher for a corner Outfielder and sign Feldman, arroyo and Furball. Trade or hold Ruben and Lucas in Vegas. Go $10 million over budget to win 85 games this year and build some momentum for the return of king Harvey.

[MFS62]

Who says you need power to play first base?
I have this feeling that if they put Wilmer Flores at first and just leave him there, he will go on to have a career like Wade Boggs.
Just a feeling.
If they do sign a power bat for a corner outfield spot, I see them moving EYJ to second and maybe Murphy to first.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Nobody says it, but since it's likely the easiest position on the diamond, a team likes to get as complete and profound and productive a hitter as possible there.

You put Wade Boggs at first base and you effectively cut 40 to 50 points off of his OPS.

And the last righthanded batter to have a career like Boggs was.... I dunno... Jimmy "The Pony" Ryan? Boggs is just too ambitious to think of, I think. A great, if still ambitious, comparable might be Julio Franco, maybe, but Franco was able to pass muster as a secondbaseman. Maybe Gregg Jefferies, but without the switch-hitting skills --- a minor league shortstop who can't pass muster at that position, gravitating toward first and DH way too early in this big league career, despite hitting productivity that's... darn good... for a shortstop.

But again, Jefferies at least had that lefthanded bat to go after righthanded pitchers.

What's the more grave view? Manny Alexander? An unhappy thought, but probably a likelier outcome than Wade Boggs.

[ashie62]

I see value in Mike Morse and Kendrys Morales.

However it seems to be a need filled by trade or within...

[ashie62]

There was talk earlier in the day of a Mets PR at 6pm today.

It would appear Rubin got a few questions into Sandy tonight and Rubin has concluded Davis or Duda will be traded sooner rather than later..

Nothing new really...

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/79912/mets-hope-to-deal-first-baseman-shortly

[Centerfield]

I hope that the Mets will not feel compelled to move one or the other and feel pressure to take whatever is offered. If the reward coming back is some back-end starter, I'd prefer to just let Davis and Duda duke it out in spring training. If we can build up the rest of the lineup so that Davis has to bat no higher than 6th, I can live with this.

That being said, I feel confident Sandy will be patient and find the right guy. I think they need two more legitimate bats to turn this team around.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: ... If the reward coming back is some back-end starter, I'd prefer to just let Davis and Duda duke it out in spring training.

Which leads to the question ... And then what?

Dealing the presumptive loser of that duel towards the end of ST when most rosters are set would likely mean less of a haul than now and I think everyone is pretty much in agreement that keeping both isn't really an option.
The alternative, I suppose, would be to send the loser to the minors (is that even possible anymore?) and hope he tears things up but, again, what kind of return are you going to get in May or June that you won't get now?

The bottom line is, two mid/late 20s under-performing 1Bmen with (occasional) power but who bring little else to the party simply aren't going to bring back that much.

[Edgy MD]

Well, an alternative option, while maybe not considered viable by many, is something akin to last year's status quo, with Davis at first and Duda in the outfield, and Duda continuing to fight for more time at first and better outfielders fighting to take away his time in left.

The status quo may be unpalatable, but certainly nobody's won the job outright yet. So keeping options open is defensible.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, Duda is extremely unlikely to bump Granderson out of the outfield, and probably not Young either. He may be able to dislodge Lagares.

It's really hard to know what the best move is. Davis' upside is really good, but his downside is really bad. There's certainly a possibility that he can hit 35 homers for the 2014 Mets, but after the way he started the last two seasons, he's lost any right to be cut any slack. If they don't want to give him another shot, I completely understand.

I'm sure that both Davis and Duda have trade value, but have no idea what that value might be. If it's lower than we'd like it to be, then I suppose that keeping them both may be a viable option. I doubt it shakes out that way, however. I think Davis will be somewhere else by next weekend.

[Edgy MD]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Well, Duda is extremely unlikely to bump Granderson out of the outfield, and probably not Young either. He may be able to dislodge Lagares.

Or end up as backup outfielder and firstbaseman, hopefully providing the team a pinch-hitter and a fallback alternative.

[Gwreck]

Isn't there also the issue of Davis' salary, which would be decided pre-spring training? There may be better uses of that $3.5 million.

[Centerfield]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I think there's nothing wrong with paying Davis $3.5 million and hoping he can recover to 2012 form. If Davis were coming from another team, and Sandy signed a guy who, as recently as 2012, hit 30 HR's and plays solid defense, for one year, $3.5 million, I think a lot of folks would say it's a good move. And so for that reason, I'd be perfectly happy to keep as long as we build other pieces around him.

(Maybe I'm softening since it's been months since I've seen Squinty flailing away at pitches in the dirt.)

My point before about not needing to move these guys is that Duda is still pretty cheap. There is value in having him around as a backup. People get hurt (not only on our team but others, so a market may develop later). I hope that the Mets don't feel some artificial need to move one or the other while in Florida. Instead, I hope they go in with an idea of their value, and if they don't get it, won't feel any shame in coming back home with both guys. And I feel pretty confident that Sandy will do this.

As an aside, isn't it odd we haven't heard a single legitimate rumor about either guy? If that keeps up, WFAN callers won't be able to gripe next season about how we should have moved Davis/Duda for (insert name here) when we had the chance.

[Edgy MD]

I'm there too. Don't think the Mets are, though.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I know I'm in the minority here, but I think there's nothing wrong with paying Davis $3.5 million and hoping he can recover to 2012 form. If Davis were coming from another team, and Sandy signed a guy who, as recently as 2012, hit 30 HR's and plays solid defense, for one year, $3.5 million, I think a lot of folks would say it's a good move. And so for that reason, I'd be perfectly happy to keep as long as we build other pieces around him.

I don't mind taking a chance of Ike rebounding -- but, if so, I want to trade Duda (or vice-versa).
The two are just too similar [low-BA, decent walk-rate, high-Ks, good though only sometimes-realized LH power, slow-footed, emergency-only OFs] to justify keeping both while other holes go unfulfilled.

[Edgy MD]

Well, when they play poorly, they're similar. When they excel, they're a little different.

But being similar isn't an issue as far as I'm concerned. Getting good play out of at least one of them is the issue. And that's less likely if they deal one away.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If they want to contend this year (and they say they do; the likelihood of that is another story) the plan can't be to go with a first baseman who tends to practically go oh-for-April, May, and June. I know there's a risk that Ike will break out for another team, which is why even though I'm in favor of dealing him, I'm still a little uneasy. But there's also a risk involved in keeping him; that another three-month slump to start the season will kill whatever faint hopes the Met may have. There's a fear that another slump would also destroy his trade value, but that may not be an issue since it's looking like that may have already happened.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy's post snuck in ahead of mine. If they keep both Davis and Duda, they can give Ike one more try and if he flops, there's still Duda and Satin.

[Edgy MD]

Maybe "We went out and bought some guys and now there's only room for one of youse in this lineup" focuses one or both of them to produce like never before.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Adam McCalvy wrote: #Brewers & #Mets met today to talk about NY's available first basemen. Brewers also met with Corey Hart's agent. Groundwork on both fronts.

Adam McCalvy (?@AdamMcCalvy) is the Brewers beat writer for MLB.com

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Well, when they play poorly, they're similar. When they excel, they're a little different.

Not very different.

ID career per/600 ABs -- .242/.334/.434 // 768; 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 25 HRs in 1,711 ML ABs
LD career per/600 ABs -- .246/.342/.424 // 766; 27 2Bs, 1 3B, 20 HRs in 1,282 ML ABs

Ike had the better peak the year he hit 32 HRs, but both have seen their BA & OBA tumble every year since 2011
BA = .302 ... then .227 ... then .205 for Ike vs .292 ... .239 ... .223 (Duda)

But being similar isn't an issue as far as I'm concerned. Getting good play out of at least one of them is the issue. And that's less likely if they deal one away.

You also have (theoretically) one fewer hole elsewhere by dealing either/or as opposed to redundancy at one spot with two guys who may both be out of options at this point(?) and will turn 27 & 28 y/o (Lucas is 13 months older) before the season starts.
Is the hope that keeping both will light a fire under one or the other really that high (after all - it hasn't worked so far) to justify burning a roster spot with two guys who essentially have the same strengths and weaknesses. I don't want to dump either one just to dump them, but if I'm Sandy I'm turning over every rock to see what I can find in a SS, a prospect, a pitcher, or even a good bench player in exchange.

[Centerfield]

No way I trade either for a guy I know will be a bench player, even a good one.

If I keep both, I've got already got first baseman and a good bench player.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well, when they play poorly, they're similar. When they excel, they're a little different. Not very different. ID career per/600 ABs -- .242/.334/.434 // 768; 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 25 HRs in 1,711 ML ABs LD career per/600 ABs -- .246/.342/.424 // 766; 27 2Bs, 1 3B, 20 HRs in 1,282 ML ABs

That speaks to their career averages but not to the distinctions between how they perform when they excel, when Duda is a better contact hitter who uses the whole field, and Davis is the better pull hitter for power. When they fail, which they both mostly have for two years, we get neither of this, and so, yes, their career averages are similar.

Frayed Knot wrote: You also have (theoretically) one fewer hole elsewhere by dealing either/or as opposed to redundancy at one spot with two guys who may both be out of options at this point(?) and will turn 27 & 28 y/o (Lucas is 13 months older) before the season starts.

Well, we speak here of not dealing one for the sake of a deal, and encouraging the Mets to hold rather than to take a less-than-advantageous deal that would not plug much of a hole. We do not speak of refusing to deal outright.

Frayed Knot wrote: Is the hope that keeping both will light a fire under one or the other really that high (after all - it hasn't worked so far)...

They haven't been pitted up against one another for playing time thus far.

Frayed Knot wrote: ...to justify burning a roster spot with two guys who essentially have the same strengths and weaknesses. I don't want to dump either one just to dump them, but if I'm Sandy I'm turning over every rock to see what I can find in a SS, a prospect, a pitcher, or even a good bench player in exchange.

I do not consider a roster spot given to a capable player to be "burned." Teams tend to carry lefthanded hitting outfielder/firstbaseman types with power on their bench under any circumstances. Many of these guys are former starters who have been downgraded. If Duda breaks camp in the role that Baxter had last year, what's burned?

[Ceetar]

It's worth noting that Lucas Duda's career is as an above average hitter (18% better by OPS+ actually).

Davis is 12% but last year his injury cost his comeback at 89%

This is really about Ike, who's the better defender so doesn't sap value that way, although it's minimized at first for Duda. Is Ike going to completely disappear for months at a time? You can live with a poor month where he's like .200/.300/.400..everyone slumps..but not .100/.200/.300 stuff. But it's not like he put up poor years uniformly, I'll take the second half of Davis over just about any options available to the Mets via trade or free agency or whatnot.

The problem is now it's been two years of complete abandonment of participation in the lineup. You can't have that. But you won't. Davis won't last until May if he starts the season on the team and doesn't produce.

The simplest solution is Davis at first and Duda in the minors (or sacrifice the defense in left with Young and Granderson making up a decent rest, but that's probably not wise) since Duda still has an option. Duda will fine and will produce. He's shown no real inclination to press and flail when he's in a funk, maintaining OBP and value at least. So if Ike flails, you get Duda. redundancy. Josh Satin fits in somewhere too. Probably going to be the 1b/3b backup if I had to guess.

But certainly, if you can get a reliable piece for either of them, it's worthwhile, but they're not junk to be discarded either. Ike's peaks even the last two seasons (even without as much power last year, he had a .429 OBP after recall. That's elite level. 15 XBH. 170 PA) is certainly something every team would like. It's figuring out how/if it can be harnessed.

[ashie62]

I'd be happy to discard them like junk.. They both suck..

[Edgy MD]

I would beg you to try again with that post.