Let's talk about The Grandy Man

[Mex17]

Might be the best pure power bat out there.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/2013/11/ny-mets-show-preliminary-interest-in-curtis-granderson-who-is-likely-to-leav

[smg58]

His home park makes that tough to gauge. I also think he overadjusted to his park to the point of diminishing returns. That being said, he could still be a nice asset for the right price. I'd go 3 and 45, but I doubt that's enough.

[ashie62]

3 for 45 may not be grandiose enough..

5-80

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

And at those prices... let's not talk about Curtis Granderson.

[metirish]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: And at those prices... let's not talk about Curtis Granderson.

This

[RealityChuck]

At least we're not talking about the Melty Man. You never talk about the Melty Man.
[youtube:2hoyleqa]bs1zz4zZhdM[/youtube:2hoyleqa]

[Zvon]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: And at those prices... let's not talk about Curtis Granderson.

Ha. And it's not that I wouldn't like him on the team. Its just we all know the Mets won't be able to afford him. What's to talk about?

[Mex17]

Ashie62 wrote: 3 for 45 may not be grandiose enough.. 5-80

Let's split the baby and say 4 for 60. I disagree that this is too rich for the Mets.

Let's assume that they have $40 million to spend (which is the high end of the estimates and what will bring them to their 2013 payroll). . .

$15 for Granderson
+
$8 for Peralta (assuming)
+
$10 for the "veteran innings eater for the rotation"
=
$33 million. That leaves an additional $7 million for Hawkins and a veteran backup catcher. Throw in this Ike for Aoki trade that Sherman said might be possible and you add in an additional $1.5 million. None of that is impossible.

Money notwithstanding, do you like Grandy in a corner spot? I would be hesitant to move the younger Lagares out of CF just to accomodate an older (and probably less athletic at this point. . .albeit not completely broken down) veteran who just expects to go into the position he has always played. What are the challenges for a centerfielder by trade moving into one of the corners?

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: His home park makes [his power] tough to gauge. I also think he overadjusted to his park to the point of diminishing returns.

This is my fear too.
In his younger/Detroit years he had a decent BA even though inept vs LHP, and was cutting down (somewhat) on his Ks as he aged after leading the league in his first full season.
He then openly changed to a pull-happy approach in order to take advantage of the LL porch when he went to YSIII and the result was a jump to league-leading type of power (250 IsoP) but a K-rate which started to climb again plus a drop in BA & OBA despite vastly improved numbers vs LHPs.

I'd hate to think of a guy trying to re-re-adjust at the age of 33 and who knows what the result would be if he did. If the Ks stay high (which they will - it's just a matter of high or REALLY high) but the BA & OBA remain only ordinary (.245/.345 w/Yanx and .231/.319 in 2012-13) while the 40 HRs/yr drops to more like 20 due to CitiField/aging/changed approach, his value is likely to fall well short of where the price tag will probably land. And he's not going to play CF here so you've got these declining skills for an aging guy with decent but not great defense at a corner OF spot.

[Mex17]

Combined road splits for 2011 and 2012 (last two healthy seasons). . .

614 ABs
23 doubles
37 homers
107 RBI
.833 OPS
187 K's

Cannot really provide a link since I had to do the addition myself, but you can do the same using ESPN or Baseball Reference.

[Edgy MD]

It's probably not about affording. The Mets are likely to go big on somebody. But do you really want it to be this guy?

[Benjamin Grimm]

In the Daily News, Andy Martino suggests that the Mets have been talking about Granderson:

It is too far early to predict with confidence where Curtis Granderson will play next year, but when it comes to New York, this much is fair to say: He is more likely to be a Met than a Yankee in 2014. The free agent outfielder is set to cut all ties with his most recent team by Monday, the deadline to accept or decline qualifying offers. Granderson is likely, though not yet certain, to forego the chance to return to the Yanks on a one-year, $14.1 million deal. Multiple major league executives predict that Granderson will receive a multi-year contract on the open market. Two people familiar with the Mets� thinking said that the team has expressed preliminary interest in Granderson, but that their level of seriousness will depend on how the market develops. A quick primer on �preliminary interest� in early November: Teams cast a wide net at this stage of the offseason, discuss many players internally, and reach out to scores of agents. The names tossed around are not names that will necessarily end up playing for those teams next season. But the rhetoric about Granderson around the Mets is different from, say, the tone regarding Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury. The latter players are easy �no thank yous,� seen by the Mets as players seeking irrational contracts. Granderson, by contrast, is on their early list of outfielders to consider. Compare the soon-to-be 33-year-old to another possibility for Queens, Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier. Both are much stronger against righthanded pitching. Both are versatile defensively, able to play centerfield or a corner position. Ethier would cost the Mets in both salary and prospects, while Granderson will cost the team in salary, and the second-round pick they would lose by signing a player who declined the qualifying offer. Granderson also hit more than 40 home runs per season in 2011 and 2012, before a pair of freak hit-by-pitches left him able to play in just 61 games in his walk year. As a lefty batter, he certainly benefitted from Yankee Stadium, but not as much as some perceive; as Fox Sports� Ken Rosenthal noted this week, Granderson hit 47 home runs at home during those recent healthy seasons, and 37 on the road, a fairly equitable split. The Mets will have competition for Granderson. He has already been connected to the White Sox and Cubs, and in a market that offers little power, the veteran will be in demand. The complaints about Granderson are obvious -- his batting average and on-base-percentage could be higher, his strikeouts could be lower, his defense isn�t what it once was. But he hits homers, and there aren�t as many of those going around nowadays.

I'd hate to sign a soon-to-be-33 player coming off an injured season for more than three years, but I suspect that he'll be able to get four years or even five from somebody. I don't expect that Granderson will be a Met, but I guess it is a possibility.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: It's probably not about affording. The Mets are likely to go big on somebody. But do you really want it to be this guy?

I don't know. I think they need to go big on someone, after only going for the "right deals" in the past and often missing out, but I'm not sure about Curtis. Particularly directly from the Yankees. Can we just pretend he was injured the last couple of years and is coming from the Tigers 100% healthy?

On the other hand, I have no problem with them considering and maybe driving up the price for the Yankees.

Looking at the numbers, he missed parts of last season and the year before was bad despite the extra home runs. Does that warrant a discount? Going into his age 33 season..

He's a high strikeout guy, but that's not horrible. He's fast and is good on defense. I think he might from a skills standpoint be a good fit though. Perhaps Hudgens gets him to be a little more 'wait for your pitch' and he takes a few more walks to make up for the HRs he'll lose. Mets maximized baserunning value and his speed gives him more value to maximize..

If the Mets do choose to carry no-bat-at-this-time Lagares, you could probably play Duda's bat in LF to make up for it, knowing that the other two CF will take away some of the ground he needs to cover.

And this is mostly worthless, but I think he's a pretty good guy too.

[Frayed Knot]

... Granderson hit 47 home runs at home during those recent healthy seasons, and 37 on the road, a fairly equitable split.

Not sure I'd define 27% more at home v on road as "fairly equitable".
Then throw in the idea that CitiField might mean a 10% or so decline - meaning that 84 over two seasons (H=47 + R=37) turns into maybe 70 (H=33 + R=37) and that's even if there's not a decline due to age, injury, surrounding line-up, league change, sun spots, whatever.

[batmagadanleadoff]

This is grand. The media deliberates on whether it's sound for the team from NY that won't finish in first place next season, and probably won't even win half of its games to sign a 33 year outfielder that, despite his flaws, is aces over anyone else they have. And they probably can't afford him anyway.

[ashie62]

Which team is that?

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I think I've posted about my experiences with Granderson. He's a very classy guy.

In a nutshell: He was on a rehab assignment with the West Michigan Whitecaps. He saw there would be some downtime and told the team to find an inner-city school for him to visit. Went in there and spoke passionately about his parents being teachers, his going to college and the importance of the students staying in school, getting a diploma and living up to their potential.

I was impressed because he could have just stayed in his hotel room ordering room service and grumbling that he has to do a rehab assignment in the Midwest League.

That doesn't mean he's a great fit for the Mets. But if we do get him, he's a great guy.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd be all for a 1-year "make-good" type of deal but he's already got that on the table from the MFYs. He should probably take that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

... Granderson hit 47 home runs at home during those recent healthy seasons, and 37 on the road, a fairly equitable split. Not sure I'd define 27% more at home v on road as "fairly equitable". Then throw in the idea that CitiField might mean a 10% or so decline - meaning that 84 over two seasons (H=47 + R=37) turns into maybe 70 (H=33 + R=37) and that's even if there's not a decline due to age, injury, surrounding line-up, league change, sun spots, whatever.

From 2011-2013 Granderson hit 42 road HR's in 730 AB's. No current Met has hit as many road HR's as Granderson has over that period. Coincidentally, David Wright also has exactly 730 AB's from 2011-2013: Wright has 29 road HR's in that period. Rate-wise, Ike Davis's road HR pace is close to Grandy's (29 HR in 512 road AB's). Barring any other additions, Granderson would appear to be the Mets best HR hitter, Citi Field or no Citi Field. If the stadium is gonna reduce CG's home HR's, then it's probably already reducing the home HR rates of some current Mets. And to the extent HR's at Citi Field are scarce, that just makes 'em more valuable anyway.

So should the Mets sign The Grandy Man? Beats me. If the goal is a shortsighted one to win as many games as possible next season at any cost, then yeah ... why not? Just sign the best players out there. If the main goal is to sign a player that'll make significant contributions to a pennant contending team, then I'd pass. CG turns 34 next year, and the Mets are probably at least another year or two from serious contention. Grandy'll probably suck by the time the Mets are ready for prime time. This post naturally assumes that the Mets can afford CG. Not that they'd ever admit to not being able to afford him if they don't sign him. They've got an unlimited number of plausible deniablilty excuses for not signing CG or any other free agent. And those excuses might even be true. But how would we know?

[Frayed Knot]

Not sure what your point is here.
Mine was that the Martino article cites Granderson's HR split as 47/37 H-v-R which it then describes as "fairly equitable" ... and that not only is that not the phrase that first comes to my mind when tagging a 27% difference but if CF becomes his home park rather than YSIII the home advantage might not just disappear it could well go somewhat the other way. And then there are the age/injury/league change factors to consider.

- Would a Granderson signing increase the Mets power? -- Sure
- Will it be a cost-wise move? -- I dunno, depends on what the cost is

[MFS62]

I look at him as the wrong guy for the right reasons.
The Mets need a power hitter, but I'm not sure his age, medical history and maybe the money he would be asking make him the player I'd go after.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

Not the person you want to build around for the future. His biggest asset will be minimized by Citi. Pass.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Not sure what your point is here.

Among other points, mainly that Grandy would be the Mets best HR hitter, based on the numbers.

Of course, he'll be 34 next season and is coming off an injury that cost him more than half of 2013. George Foster and Jason Bay also came to the Mets as not only their best HR hitter, but as one of the best HR hitters in all of baseball.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Carlos Delgado was 34 in his first year as a Met, and he worked out very well.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He was on steroids of course.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, I guess I overlooked that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets' interest in Curtis Granderson is growing
The Mets desperately need power at the corner outfield spots, and with Marlon Byrd coming off the board at two years, $16 million to the Phillies Tuesday, the market is shaping up to be limited.
Comments (8)
By Kristie Ackert / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

ORLANDO � Who can make the sun shine at Citi Field? The Grandy Man can. That seems to be what the Mets believe, as a team source told the Daily News Tuesday that the club is growing more and more intrigued with outfielder Curtis Granderson, who turned down a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer from the Yankees on Monday. The Mets desperately need power at the corner outfield spots, and with Marlon Byrd coming off the board at two years, $16 million to the Phillies Tuesday, the market is shaping up to be limited. �Given what we have seen so far, I wasn�t surprised,� Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said about the Byrd deal. �Had you asked me the question three or four months ago, I might have been surprised, but not in light of what�s happened since the end of the season. There haven�t been that many signings. This one is consistent with the others, I think.� After the second day of the GM meetings here, Alderson also confirmed that the Mets intend to meet with Scott Boras before Thursday. Boras, of course, represents the two top outfielders on the free agent market: Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. Granderson�s agent, Matt Brown, is not here this week, Alderson said, so no meeting is expected anytime soon. Since the Mets have about $30 million to spend this offseason and have many holes to fill, Choo and Ellsbury, who are expected to get mega-contracts, are not seen as likely fits. Boras also represents Stephen Drew, a shortstop who could take care of another Met need. As The News reported Monday, bringing Byrd back was not a priority for the Mets. Byrd, 36, had a resurgent year with the Mets, one of the few teams willing to give him a chance after he served a 50-game suspension for violating baseball�s joint drug program in 2012. Byrd, who signed for $700,000 last season, hit .285 with a career-high 71 RBI for the Mets before being traded to the Pirates in late August. Alderson may be looking for another bargain. Saying that the slow start to the offseason is playing out as expected, he is evaluating a competitive and fluctuating market. �We might bring in more than two starting outfielders. Who knows how things are gonna break? I�d be surprised if that happens, (with) so much interest in corner outfielders among other clubs,� Alderson said. �I�d be surprised if we were that successful, because of the demand at the position.� Alderson made it clear the Mets could live with Eric Young Jr., who led the National League in stolen bases last season, in left field. There is also some thought within the organization that Young could move back to his natural position at second base if the Mets were to deal Daniel Murphy. �Eric is gonna be a part of our team. What his exact role might be will depend on our final roster,� Alderson said. �It depends a little bit on how things go in spring training. I expect he will be a valuable part of the team.� Alderson again labeled shortstop a priority, but played down the need for a veteran catcher. Despite an initial wish list that included a durable veteran backstop who could play every day in case Travis d�Arnaud suffers yet another injury, Alderson said Anthony Recker can do the job. �Ultimately, if we have to go with Recker and d�Arnaud, it would be nice to have somebody else available to us,� Alderson said. �(Juan) Centeno is the only other catcher we have under contract at the Triple-A level, so we�d like to have somebody else, but it�s not a high priority.�

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/sandy-s-interest-grandy-growing-article-1.1515001

[Edgy MD]

Rubicon is running with the Mets interest in Granderson being overstated.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Daily News had something this morning (can't find it online) saying that according to hittrackeronline, all but nine of Granderson's last 91 homers would have gone out of Citi Field.

And of course, if Granderson was a Met, only half of his games would have been played at Citi, so if the numbers are accurate, Citi Field would only have cost him about 4 per cent of his home runs.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Daily News had something this morning (can't find it online) saying that according to hittrackeronline, all but nine of Granderson's last 91 homers would have gone out of Citi Field. And of course, if Granderson was a Met, only half of his games would have been played at Citi, so if the numbers are accurate, Citi Field would only have cost him about 4 per cent of his home runs.

well, would be different road parks too. And you can never really account for the wind differences (never mind the pitcher differences) in these comparisons. But I do believe that Granderson's power wouldn't suddenly vanish in Citi Field. I'm warming to the idea of Curtis more and more.