Return of Jose?

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/08/featured-post-is-there-a-chance-for-jose-reyes-reunion.html

Interesting speculation in this Mets-Merized post about a potential Reyes return.

He makes some interesting points:

-- Sandy isn't pleased with Tejada
-- There are no prospects other than Tejada
-- The Jays big-spending didn't help them and they might be willing to shed salary.
-- The Mets have money to spend.

He speculates the Jays might be willing to cover 30 percents or more of the salary.

It's fun to speculate. But...

-- Jose is still way-overpaid, even with the Jays eating some.
-- He's in, what, the second year of a seven-year deal? That's a big commitment
-- He's on the wrong side of 30 and, as we know, prone to breakdowns. Hell, he's almost old enough and broken down enough to be a Yankee.

I like Jose as much as the next Crane Pooler. But I don't know if he's as good of a fit any more.

[seawolf17]

The post there offers up Murphy and Montero as bait. Jose's got $86 million guaranteed over four years (including the buyout for the fifth year, or it's an extra $18 million for 2018) -- if Toronto eats half of it, I'd do that.

You'd get Jose -- who will "only" be 35 in 2018 -- at $10-12 million a year. And you can move Tejada to second if you really believe in him, or go out and get one somewhere else. Murphy turns 29 on or around Opening Day 2014, so it's not like he's so young himself.

[Edgy MD]

He'll be in the third year. For the Mets, that'll be four years and $82 million, plus a $22 million option in 2018 with a $4 million buyout, so effectively, it's four years and $86 million. How much would you want to carve off of that to make it worth it? Get it down to $55 million? $60 million?

It's so hard to read the market these days. Worth noting is that since returning on June 26, Reyes hasn't been stealing bases. He 's only stolen eight in that time and bagged only one in August. On one hand, big whoop, as stolen bases are an over-rated weapon. On the other, it could be an indication of how healthy his legs are.

The early years of Doubleday/Wilpon/Cashen were characterized by canceling debts with the team's fans by bringing back Kingman, Staub, and Seaver. While none of these moves made much of difference competitively, there was value perhaps in re-establishing faith. There may be some mindset with regards to that nebulous value as the team makes it's next push.

Maybe.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Blue Jays would have to eat a LOT of money to make it worthwhile.

A WHOLE lot of the money.

I've moved on from Jose. The Mets do need a new shortstop, but I'd rather that it not be their old shortstop. With his salary, he'll just become one of those guys for whom we'll be looking forward to the season when he "comes off the books."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think JoseJose's time came and went, but if the Jays are committed to swallowing a lot of $$ we can talk.

A WHOLE lot of the money.

And then some.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think JoseJose's time came and went, but if the Jays are committed to swallowing a lot of $$ we can talk. A WHOLE lot of the money. And then some.

It's really that spike at the end that concerns me most.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think JoseJose's time came and went, but if the Jays are committed to swallowing a lot of $$ we can talk. A WHOLE lot of the money. And then some.

For argument's sake, though, let's hang a number on it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay. I'd say that if the Mets can get him with an annual average salary of $11 million or less, then it's worth considering.

Get it down to $8 million and I'm all in.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, maybe 50 cents on the dollar. 4 years/41 makes sense to me.

DO IT SANDY

[Lefty Specialist]

Jays will never eat enough money to get it down to $8 mil a year. They got it down to $12 mil a year I'd do it. I think Jose would be energized being back in NY. He didn't sign up for Toronto, and I bet he hates that Astroturf.

There's no shortstop in the system, so if they offered, I'd listen.

[Edgy MD]

I love the conversation reported from the end of last year where Terry's all "They're probably gonna trade you," and he's all, "No way, Papi!"

[Frayed Knot]

The biggest thing with that contract is how back-loaded it is:
2014 = $16M, 2015 = $22M, 2016 = $22M, 2017 = $22M, 2018 = $22M/club option ($4M buyout) after getting in the range of $10-$12 for these past two seasons. Then there's a bunch of (relatively minor) bonuses for each Gold Glove, All-Star selection. Silver Slugger, LCS MVP, MVP, WS MVP
That's too much for a 30+ SS

He, of course, did NOT get a no-trade clause in the deal and won't be 10+5 for another three years.

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, the Marlins backloaded it, got his cheapest season, then dumped the contract on the Jays. Exactly what they did with Carlos Delgado.

[smg58]

Well they ate a sizeable chunk of Delgado's contract. If they didn't do the same with Reyes, the Jays are in a hell of a bind.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Possible solution: offer the Jays a sliding reward scale, based on the size of the money swallow.

-- Eat $10 million, get Cecchini and a jumbo hot-dog
-- Eat $20 million, get Murphy and/or Duda and several Olive Garden gift cards
-- Eat $30 million, get Flores or Montero and several Cheesecake Factory gift cards
-- Eat $40 million, get Flores, Montero, and a mystery prize that rhymes with "Tbarros Lor Wife"

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Possible solution: offer the Jays a sliding reward scale, based on the size of the money swallow. -- Eat $10 million, get Cecchini and a jumbo hot-dog -- Eat $20 million, get Murphy and/or Duda and several Olive Garden gift cards -- Eat $30 million, get Flores or Montero and several Cheesecake Factory gift cards -- Eat $40 million, get Flores, Montero, and a mystery prize that rhymes with "Tbarros Lor Wife"

Dude. They're in Canada. You gotta mix in some Dunkin' Donuts if you want their attention.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Okay, scratch the restaurant offers, and add Timmy Ho's coffee-in-a-box/back-bacon poundage accordingly.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Okay, scratch the restaurant offers, and add Timmy Ho's coffee-in-a-box/back-bacon poundage accordingly.

Perhaps some of those little maple sugar candies?

[Edgy MD]

I was just upstairs combing what's left of my hair into a slick old-guy pompadour when I got the notion that soon Jose, like Shawon Dunston and Robin Yount before him, is going to start gravitating to the outfield. His play at short was never as refined as some others', certainly a product in part of his increased size. Now entering the second half of his career, age, injuries, and increased bulk will likely rob him of much of his agility, even if the bulk of his footspeed is retained.

He perhaps will display more consistent power, good enough to retain starting jobs should he become a full-time outie, but I fear he'll have few All-Star games going forward.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Cal Ripken moved to third base as he aged, didn't he? That's another possible path for Jose, depending on who his teammates are, and, I suppose, what his power numbers are.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Cal Ripken moved to third base as he aged, didn't he? That's another possible path for Jose, depending on who his teammates are, and, I suppose, what his power numbers are.

He's got a strong arm too. Feel like he could do this. But not in a 'return to the Mets' type way of course.

[Edgy MD]

As did Pay-Rod, but I think what's left of Reyes' fast-guy skills will translate more to the outfield, and even moreso as he ages.

Ripken, of course, began his career at third.

[Vic Sage]

i think even if his range diminishes over the next few years, he is still sure-handed and strong-armed enough, with enough SS experience and savvy, to keep manning the position through the remaining 4 guaranteed years on the contract. Particularly in light of the offense he brings to carry that diminished defense. We would still be an overall + at the position, relative to the league. Unless he continues to get injured, in which case it doesn't really matter where they position him, cuz he won't be there.

If he was a free agent tom'w, would you sign a 30-year old .290/100r/50sb/15hr hitting SS coming off an injured season to a 4-year deal, and if so, at what price in the current market?
Assuming diminishing defensive range, fewer SBs but more HRs, would such a FA be worth it, with no other options on the major or minor-league levels? And then add in the fan value of bringing him back -- what is that worth? how many more chochkees sold and tickets, hot dogs, parking spaces and cable-tv viewers and radio listeners? They can make some projections on stuff like that these days, so that goes into the calculation, too.

So then you add the market price for his projected level of production at SS, the organizational need, the position's scarcity within and without organization, and home-town marketing (and some other factors i probably overlooked) to determine his "value". Equaling what? None of us has any idea, but throwing out random salaries and players in trade is entertaining enough, i suppose. So i'll thow out one. $10m@4yrs in salary (or the average of what he's gotten over the first few years of the deal), with Murphy and Montero in trade. Murphy is competent but not an impact player, and Flores can play 2b (and they need to find a position for him, if they believe in him), and while giving up Montero is a risk, we have plenty of other pitching prospects, and we'd have to give them at least 1 level A prospect or major leaguer for them to eat this much salary (they'd probably want another too -- Ike, Duda or Tejada come to mind). I still don't think they'd do it, since it requires eating over 50% of his remaining contract, but i think that's his worth, all things considered.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, most would probably take that. But eating 55% of the deal? Hard to imagine Toronto doing that.

[Vic Sage]

agreed. which is why the deal probably won't and shouldn't happen.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Of course, Toronto could send less money and get a lesser crop of players back. It's a delicate balance, finding that mid-point that would make both teams happy.

If the Mets would have to pay $10 million per year to Jose, but lose Montero, could they get him for $12 million per year (saving the Jays $8 million overall) and send a lesser prospect instead?

It's mostly a rhetorical question. I don't think any of us have enough knowledge of the Blue Jays' budget, the Mets' evaluation of their prospects, and the Blue Jays' evaluation of the Mets' prospects, to really know what kind of a deal might be doable.

[G-Fafif]

Last year: Despised Marlin traitor.
This year: Beloved shortstop in exile.

[Vic Sage]

next year: star-crossed disabled veteran

[Benjamin Grimm]

G-Fafif wrote: This year: Beloved shortstop in exile.

I'm not there at all. I'm pretty much indifferent to Jose. That final first inning bunt seems to have left remnants in my craw. Whatever a "craw" is.

[Vic Sage]

craw - a pouch in many birds and some lower animals that resembles a stomach for storage and preliminary maceration of food
Idioms: stick in one's craw, to cause considerable or abiding resentment; rankle.
[1350�1400; Middle English crawe, related to crop*]
[related to Middle High German krage, Middle Dutch cr?ghe, neck, Icelandic kragi ,collar]

* Crop: A pouch-like enlargement of a bird's gullet in which food is partially digested or stored for regurgitation to nestlings, and a similar enlargement in the digestive tract of annelids and insects.