IGT 8/13/13 NYM @ LAD The Harvelous Tour: The Final Days

[batmagadanleadoff]

The New York Mets are likely to shut down right-hander Matt Harvey when he reaches the 200-inning plateau next month, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
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Harvey likely to be shut down after 200 innings
By Anthony DiComo / MLB.com | 8/13/2013 3:10 A.M. ET

excerpt:

LOS ANGELES -- At the start of the year, many players avoid making hard statistical goals for the season. Matt Harvey does not. One of Harvey's aims heading into his first full big league season was to pitch 200 innings, which he might have done over two levels last year had the Mets not shut him down in mid-September. This year, 200 innings sits near the upper limit of what the Mets will allow Harvey to achieve. Though the organization has not revealed any hard numbers regarding a shutdown of its young ace, the working assumption is that they will not allow him to exceed last year's total of 169 1/3 innings by much more than 30. Assuming Harvey continues to average seven innings per start, as he has up to this point, he will hit the 200-inning mark around the second week of September. That would prompt the Mets to shut him down with as many as three full weeks left in the season -- a fate they could have delayed by roughly a week had Jeremy Hefner not suffered an elbow injury, forcing them to whittle their six-man rotation down to five. Harvey understands all that, and will ultimately accept it. But he also feels there is value in lasting through the end of September. "Obviously, I'm not going to be happy to miss any starts, but if it's a week, I'm not going to look at it like I didn't finish a full season," Harvey said. The only ways Harvey might last deeper would be if he pitched some clunkers, if the Mets skipped him once or twice in the rotation, or if they removed him prematurely from successful starts. None of those scenarios are ideal. So Harvey, who actually prefers the five-man rotation because it helps him maintain his normal routine, may have to accept an early shutdown for the second consecutive season. His silver lining? Finishing around 200 innings would all but guarantee that he will have no workload restrictions in 2014. "I try and go nine every start," Harvey said. "So obviously if they start adding up and they decide it's time to shut it down, that's their call. I'm never going to want to give up the ball or not go out there, but I like the fact that it's a five-man rotation. It's been like that forever for a reason, and if they decide that I've had enough, then I've had enough."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130812&content_id=56779662&notebook_id=56782522&vkey=notebook_nym&c_id=nym

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

In a related story, the Ford Agency is requesting Harvey limit his fashion-spreads to 6 pages.

[Lefty Specialist]

"I'll be fine, guys. I have a supermodel to comfort me."

[Ceetar]

Though the organization has not revealed any hard numbers regarding a shutdown of its young ace, the working assumption is that they will not allow him to exceed last year's total of 169 1/3 innings by much more than 30.

We have no idea, so let's pick a number for the hell of it.

Put up a poll. I say he finished with 215 even.

[ashie62]

I knew this was coming..total bullshit

[G-Fafif]

Eric Young, Jr. � LF
Juan Lagares � CF
Daniel Murphy � 2B
Marlon Byrd � RF
Josh Satin � 1B
Justin Turner � 3B
John Buck � C
Omar Quintanilla � SS
Matt Harvey � RHP

[smg58]

Ashie62 wrote: I knew this was coming..total bullshit

Well there is some statistical evidence backing up the idea that pitchers who exceed the previous season high in IP by more than 35 are at an increased risk of regression or an injury. And it's not like the Mets are going to be playing in their home city's first playoff series in 75 years, but the front office isn't worried because of course they'll get back next season and the fans can see the team's best player in the playoffs then.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I knew this was coming..total bullshit Well there is some statistical evidence backing up the idea that pitchers who exceed the previous season high in IP by more than 35 are at an increased risk of regression or an injury. And it's not like the Mets are going to be playing in their home city's first playoff series in 75 years, but the front office isn't worried because of course they'll get back next season and the fans can see the team's best player in the playoffs then.

no there's not.

[smg58]

Let me rephrase that: there are people who claim that crossing an innings threshold is dangerous for young arms, and there is a considerable amount of debate on the subject. I found this interesting (if long) article on the subject: http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id155.html

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

What you said first-- the 30-plus-innings thing-- is the "Verducci Effect," and it's been more or less debunked.

The Verducci Effect is a case of speculation mixed with a really poor understanding of the scientific method, and that is a dangerous combination. It gives the illusion of knowledge, and that's more dangerous than simply not knowing something. It's tempting to want to grab onto the Verducci explanation, especially when a young pitcher with so much promise suffers such a large setback, because a wrong explanation feels better than no explanation.

The article you cite seems to agree.

In the meantime, I found no strong indication of a magical 30+ inning jump or age 23 threshold, but more pitchers need to be studied. A younger pitcher�s greater fragility may be off-set by his greater natural progress and/or his greater ability to recover from injury. This entire theory of identifying likely abused pitchers by a large jump in innings may be exaggerated.

[batmagadanleadoff]

G-Fafif wrote: Eric Young, Jr. � LF Juan Lagares � CF Daniel Murphy � 2B Marlon Byrd � RF Josh Satin � 1B Justin Turner � 3B John Buck � C Omar Quintanilla � SS

Gruesome. Just gruesome. If someone told me in March that this is what the Mets regular starting lineup (more or less) would be, I wouldn't think the team capable of winning 50 games. Byrd's been a surprise, but back in March, I woulda said that the 3-4-5 middle of that order wouldn't hit 20 HR's combined.

[Frayed Knot]

Well, this "gruesome" lineup (or some variation of it) is a hair above league average in runs scored for the year and has them four games over .500 since the end of June.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well, this "gruesome" lineup (or some variation of it) is a hair above league average in runs scored for the year and has them four games over .500 since the end of June.

I know. I thought of that as I wrote the post. Let's see if they can maintain their somewhat under .500 pace without Wright's star season contributions.

[batmagadanleadoff]

"Home games mean dining at Grauman's Chinese".

[metirish]

Wouldn't Ryu know it, Young flies out and Lagares hits one out.....1 zip

[Zvon]

[Guest themetfairy]

Obi Juan Lagares - Our only hope!

[Edgy MD]

A fat-faced Dodger lefty ace coming from 3/4 brings me back to 1981.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

[Zvon]

Whoa^ that scared me.
Harvey has a run before he even takes the mound. That's a switch.

OE: that ones not as scary.

[Fman99]

Zvon wrote:

Nice.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Zvon wrote: Whoa^ that scared me. Harvey has a run before he even takes the mound. That's a switch. OE: that ones not as scary.

Yeah. Was going more for "Sad Danny" than "Spooky, Glowering Danny."

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

[Zvon]

Fman99 wrote: Nice.

ty.

Harvey looks good in the first.

[Fman99]

Gary and Keith gushing in their love for Chavez Ravine. Makes me want very much to attend a game there someday.

[Zvon]

lol.Serious, mandatory bunting drill today.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I wanna drive onto the infield and make out with a French exchange student there.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Fuggin' Turner.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

For a guy who resembles, say, Pitbull's free-safety brother, O sure looked graceful turning the DP/Cuban-dodging there.

[Fman99]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wanna drive onto the infield and make out with a French exchange student there.

I love that movie.