After two starts..

[Centerfield]

...what do you guys make of Wheeler?

Is he going to be better than Harvey? Or is he Mike Pelfrey 2.0? Obviously enthusiasm is a bit tempered after last night. I'll admit I am a little concerned. Not the wildness, so much, because I think that will improve with time. I don't like that his secondary pitches seem pretty pedestrian, whether they are thrown for strikes or not. The slider doesn't have the bite that Harvey's does, the curve doesn't have Niese's movement, and the changeup just hangs there.

Of course, I also thought Parnell was going to turn into Kane Davis, then he learned the knuckle curve, so I guess things can change quickly with these young guys.

[Vic Sage]

yeah, first you start with talent, then build from there. there's no guarantees... as they said in "The Natural", talent isn't enough. But he can throw high 90s with a whip arm motion, so that's a pretty good place to start. Harvey came already finished.

[TransMonk]

Ronnie said it seems like he is tipping his breaking balls, which could be disastrous for his cahnfidence and his results.

Over two starts (waaaay too soon to make a final judgement), he reminds me more of Pelfrey than of Harvey. With his gas and build, the ceiling is high, though.

[MFS62]

Dammit. I hat it when a guy proves he's human.

Later

[metirish]

I think Ron was great last night in talking about Wheeler, it was apparent to him that Wharten had Wheeler throwing less fastballs and more of speed stuff, he thought this was a disservice to Wheeler, he felt as a pitcher he is not polished enough(yet) to mess with him like that. Ron and Gary and I would guess most Mets fans wondered why they would change what worked in Atlanta?

Anyway, I love his fastball, he throws it with such ease....I think he is going to be fine.

[Ceetar]

Harvey was such an exception, I don't even want to think about it.

I think Wheeler's certainly still got some growing to do. I worry about the stuff Darling was saying about his game plan. (But then, I worry about most of what Warthen must be telling these guys as a general rule)


Of course, as much as it would be awesome to have two Aces, if he can provide at least the averagish starts of Pelfrey, it's still something.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

All young pitchers get knocked around a little. Harvey's really freakish in this regard.

I think Wheeler should lose the stupid beard already. But he'd won last night had he held on runners better.

[Edgy MD]

What worked in Atlanta didn't really work. Putting guys on base with walks and digging yourself out is unsustainable. And when you finally have to come in on a guy when you're behind, he's sooner or later going to park the ball, like Flowers did. And if any if Warthan has anything to do with there being nobody on base at the time, then credit to Warthan.

As for what I think of the guy's performance apart from strategy, he's got good velocity, great movement, and not a lot of control. Whether he's wild out of the strike zone or wild in, he needs a better idea of where it's going. It'll maybe be interesting to see if he draws Recker as his catcher more often going forward. Or maybe d'Arnaud.

[Vic Sage]

if he can provide at least the averagish starts of Pelfrey, it's still something.

yeah, it would be something alright... a huge disappointment, is what that would be.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: if he can provide at least the averagish starts of Pelfrey, it's still something. yeah, it would be something alright... a huge disappointment, is what that would be.

Clearly, if every highly rated prospect doesn't become Tom Seaver it's a huge disappointment.

I mean, d'Arnaud better get with the Piazza comps soon once he gets called up, or who knows. #FireSandy maybe.

If only the the Mets were better at development like all those other teams who never have high draft picks do less than dominate.

[Vic Sage]

oh, wait, so the only options for Wheeler's future are Mike Pelfrey or Tom Seaver? No middle ground there, slugger?

I'm saying that if a prospect of Wheeler's magnitude doesn't exceed the average production of Mike "I completely suck" Pelfrey, somebody needs to get fired. Wheeler certainly doesn't need to develop into a 1st ballot HOFer (though i wouldn't mind that), but he does need to give us a decade or so as a front-of-the-rotation starter, or he will fall short of expectations. How far short? Well, a "Pelfrey" level career would be so woefully short as to be stomach turning. But achieving a "Ron Darling" level would be just fine.

[TransMonk]

Wheeler doesn't need to be Seaver to be considered a success, but he does need to be better than Pelfrey.

Huge difference.

OE: Vic beat me to it.

[Edgy MD]

On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly. Too much chance involved.

That said, I had no idea Mike Pelfrey had formally changed his name. How sad.

[Ceetar]

Prospects are prospects for a reason. A lot of them don't make it. Simply adding a regular contributor to the mix is an enormous success. And if it's only approaching league average? well, a lot of teams could use another one of those.

[Centerfield]

Prospects are prospects for a reason.

Agreed.

A lot of them don't make it.

Agreed. And the ones that don't are called "disappointments".

Simply adding a regular contributor to the mix is an enormous success.

Depends on the prospect. If you trade a front-line player for a prospect you think will be a star, and he ends up being average, that is called a disappointment. If you add me to the roster, and I end up being a regular contributor, this is considered a huge success.

And if it's only approaching league average? well, a lot of teams could use another one of those.

Maybe, but apparently not us. See, we had Pelfrey, and let him go.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly.

That's exactly what we're doing. At least me and Vic, anyways. I mean, my expectations for Zack Wheeler aren't the same as for Colin McHugh.

[TransMonk]

There are prospects and then there are first round draft picks...again, there's a difference in expectations between the two in my mind.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: And if it's only approaching league average? well, a lot of teams could use another one of those. Maybe, but apparently not us. See, we had Pelfrey, and let him go.

Sure, we let him go, when got expensive and injured. Certainly used him plenty before that. We enjoyed those Aaron Laffey starts right?

It's only a disappointment if you set those expectations, which given the nature of prospects, and pitchers, seems silly. This is baseball, there's a lot of failure built in. We beat the odds with Harvey, and certainly it seems like we might again with Wheeler, but having Harvey and a league average innings eater under control for the next bunch of years has more than met my expectations for two draft picks, even two first round picks. even if you throw in Meija and Familia.

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly. That's exactly what we're doing. At least me and Vic, anyways. I mean, my expectations for Zack Wheeler aren't the same as for Colin McHugh.

Well, I dunno, Vic's seemingly explicitly saying anything short of front-of-the-rotation productivity for a decade is a disappointment. I'll take it a little at a time and go from there.

Quality pitching is so ephemeral. I don't build expectations about one single guy, but rather the process. You've got to develop piles of quality, see what shakes out, and keep the process renewable.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly. That's exactly what we're doing. At least me and Vic, anyways. I mean, my expectations for Zack Wheeler aren't the same as for Colin McHugh.

More people than you think have reasonable expectations of this team and its players. What the rest of us don't do is forage for bad news and wave it like a flag.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Swan Swan H wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly. That's exactly what we're doing. At least me and Vic, anyways. I mean, my expectations for Zack Wheeler aren't the same as for Colin McHugh. More people than you think have reasonable expectations of this team and its players. What the rest of us don't do is forage for bad news and wave it like a flag.

I don't comprendo. Are you saying that I should expect the same from McHugh as from Wheeler? As for my "foraging", believe me, I'd be thrilled to post a credible article characterizing Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a future MVP candidate. I'm just a messenger. Don't blame me for this team's problems.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

You know what, I'm having a crappy day and reading shit into shit that isn't there. I took a specific reference for a general reference, and I apologize for mouthing off for no reason. Read twice, post once a wise man (not Edgy) once said.

[Edgy MD]

Hey, now I'm reading something...

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: Hey, now I'm reading something...

No, that's actually there.

[Edgy MD]

It certainly is.

Listen, I saw him first. That's all there is to it.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: It certainly is. Listen, I saw him first. That's all there is to it.

Oh yeah? Well, I saw him last.

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: On the other hand, nobody this side of Seaver and Gooden have given the Mets a decade as a front-of-the-rotation starter, so... adjust expectations accordingly. Too much chance involved. That said, I had no idea Mike Pelfrey had formally changed his name. How sad.

You know, thinking about this, it all depends on how you describe "decade" and "front of the rotation," but I think it doesn't take too much generosity to get to the point where Jerry Koosman and Sid Fernandez qualify here also.

[Vic Sage]

Seaver and Gooden? yeah, but not only.

koosman
Matlack
swan
Darling
Fernandez
David Cone
Leiter

ok, some of these are less than a decade but all were significant contributors over an extended number of years at the front of a Mets rotation, none are HOFers, and all are reasonable expectations for Wheeler (and Harvey, for that matter).

If he ends up as Bobby Jones, that would be mildly disappointing. If he ends up as a Pelfrey, that would be profoundly disappointing. If he ends up Tim Leary or Paul Wilson, that's a disaster, even if not entirely unexpected, given the nature of pitching.

[Edgy MD]

[code:12ybhx07]ok, some of these are less than a decade[/code:12ybhx07]

Yeah, well that's my point. A decade at the top of the rotation is more that can reasonably be expected of anybody. Things fall apart.

[metirish]

Zack's confidhance might be shaken up a little , his next start should be away to the Brewers, awful team , losers of 5 in a row.