GREETINGS! -- aka: the draft thread 2013

[Frayed Knot]

Probably only a few folks here are old enough to have received a 'Greetings' letter from the U.S. Gov't back in the day, but at least for them it'll bring back some (not so warm) memories.


But anyway, the MLB amateur draft is coming up on June 6th - 8th
Mets have #11 pick (the one they did NOT surrender for Michael Bourne) plus choices 48, 76, 84, and then pick #116 and every 30 picks after that.

Baseball America starts things off by looking back as they examine the Top 100 draft picks for Position Players only over a 20 year span (1989-2008) and checked how things worked out.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback-naming-names/


What they did was to take those drafted players and divide them into essentially three categories
1) Those who either failed to reach the majors and/or only appeared in fewer than 100 games
2) Those who had played in more than 100 ML games
3) Those termed �Impact� players, defined by 10 career WAR or better
They admit that there are still some folks out there, particularly from the more recent drafts, who could change categories still (the Reese Havens of the world for instance) but, now that they've gone five drafts back, there shouldn't be too many.

Overall Sample:
917 players drafted: 513 (56%) from High School; 404 (44%) from College
>100 Games Played: 350 players or 38% (30% of the HS players, 49% of the college)
Impact: 112 or 12.2% - 10.5% from HS; 14.4% college

So basically for every Eight players drafted in the Top-100 you can expect five to either never put on a ML uniform or to top out at being a cuppa-coffee guy; three to hang around the majors long enough to get at least 100 games in; and, on average, ONE of those three will become an �impact� player.
Of course those odds would vary a lot in small samples and those picks towards the top of the 100 should fare a lot better than those at the bottom.

Broken down by Position - although note that this is their position at the time they were drafted and not necessarily where they wound up:

Catchers: 146 Drafted (16% of the total)
>100 Games = 41%
>10 WAR = 12%

SS: 205 Drafted (22%)
>100 games = 39%
>10 WAR = 10%

2B: 29 Drafted (just 3% of the total and almost all of them - 22 - from college)
>100 Games = 31%
>10 WAR = 10%

3B: 108 Drafted (12%)
>100 Games = 41%
>10 WAR = 15%

1B: 82 Drafted (9%)
>100 Games = 38%
>10 WAR = 16%

OF: 347 Drafted (38%)
>100 Games = 37%
>10 WAR = 12%

[batmagadanleadoff]

Joe Posnanski picks a random season (2006) and hindsights it to determine how each team's top prospect did. More evidence confirming just how unlikely it is for a major league amateur draftee to succeed -- even a top prospect.

excerpt:

Prospects 2006 Bill James wrote a piece the other day about the possible difference between pitching and hitting prospects � and it reminded me of this project I've wanted to do for some time. I wanted to go back through Baseball America's excellent prospect handbooks and see how the best prospects turned out. How often do they succeed? How often do they fail? What is the biggest reason for failure? (I'd guess injury). What is the most promising sign for success? How often do "toolsy" players make it? How about "skilled" players? Well, I haven't had time to dive into that the way I would like. But I did try something. I have all the Baseball America Prospect Handbooks going back to 2003 (with 2001 and 2002 on order). I picked a year at random -- I chose 2006 -- and decided to look at BA's top prospects for each team, who in retrospect was the team's best prospect, what BA said about the player and, finally, what happened. One thing I'd like to say here -- this is NOT about how good Baseball America is at predicting success and failure. No, I see BA as sort of the control factor, if that make sense. I'd say they do the best job in the sport of gathering information and viewpoints from scouts and player development people and general managers and so on. I don't look at these top prospects as Baseball America's opinion. I look at it as the best bet we can find in terms of the CONSENSUS opinion in baseball about these players. And so, what I'm trying to do here is determine how often these prospects hit or miss. The "hitting" and "missing" designation is pointed entirely at the player, not at the people who made the predictions. OK, here we go: * * * New York Mets No. 1 prospect: Lastings Milledge (No. 9 overall). Best actual prospect: No. 3 Carlos Gomez, maybe? Pretty slim pickings. What BA said: "With his package of five tools, Milledge has few peers in the minors � the heart of New York's lineup should be in good shape for years to come." What happened: A mix of off-the-field distractions and on-the-field troubles led the Mets to trade him to Washington and Washington to trade him to Pittsburgh. The White Sox signed him. At last check, he was playing in Japan. Final analysis: Miss.

[Vic Sage]

the TiTTS say "yea, verily, yea."

[batmagadanleadoff]

More from Posnanski's 2006 Prospects Review:

Oakland A's No. 1 prospect: Daric Barton (No. 28 overall). Best actual prospect: No. 4 Andre Ethier. What BA said: "Hitting comes easy for Barton � his pitch recognition is off the charts." What happened: Barton's pitch recognition WAS off the charts in 2010, when he led the American League with 110 walks. Add in 12 sac hits and five sac flies, he dropped his 686 plate appearances to 556 and managed to hit .273. Since then, he has hit .209 in 113 big league games and has spent much of the time in the minors, where his bat has been silent as well. Final analysis: Miss. * * * Toronto Blue Jays No. 1 prospect: Dustin McGowan (No. 48 overall). Best actual prospect: No. 11 Shaun Marcum. What BA said: "Like many young power pitchers, McGowan struggles to command his fastball � he'll need to refine his fastball command if he's to become the front-of-the-rotation starter the Blue Jays envision." What happened: He did win 12 games and throw 170 or so innings in 2007. But he could not refine his fastball command and he had all sorts of injury problems. Second verse, same as the first. Final analysis: Miss. * * * Arizona Diamondbacks No. 1 prospect: Justin Upton (No. 2 overall). Best actual prospect: Probably Upton, though No. 4 Carlos Gonzalez is in the running. What BA said: "While some scouts have said they would move Upton to center field and envision him becoming the next Ken Griffey, the Diamondbacks have no plans [to move him from short] yet." What happened: Upton is one of those players who is judged against incredibly high expectations -- Baseball America wasn't the only one to compare him to Ken Griffey. One scout told me he had Willie Mays talent. Willie Mays! So, sure, against that backdrop, a .278/.357/.475 career line with a 117 OPS+, a couple of All-Star appearances and annual trade rumors seems drastically disappointing. But, you cannot have a fair conversation about Justin Upton without also mentioning that he just turned 25 in August. He's younger than Pedro Alvarez. He's younger than Cameron Maybin. He's younger than Jay Bruce and Buster Posey and Austin Jackson. His 108 home runs are as many as Cal Ripken had at the same age, more than Reggie Jackson and Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds. You know who is not a bad comparison? Gary Sheffield. Huge prospect. Was called up at 19. Had one excellent year when he was 23: Sheffield at 23: .330/.385/.580 with 33 homers, 100 RBIs, 87 runs. Upton at 23: .289/.369/.529 with 31 homers, 21 steals, 88 RBIs, 105 runs. But Sheffield was also wildly inconsistent until he turned 25 (.285/.346/.451 with a 120 OPS+). From 25 to 30, he posted a 156 OPS+, might have been the best offensive player in the league when he was 27 and so on. This is not to say that Upton WILL emerge into that kind of player, only that he could, that there is a precedent. At the end of each of these prospects, I put what I call the "Final analysis." I'm basically calling that prospect a "Hit" or a "Miss" -- again, the title refers to the player himself and not Baseball America's prediction. This is tough to do because (1) Some of these players, like Upton, are still open-ended stories and (2) Not all prospects are created alike. By that I mean, there were much higher expectations for Justin Upton than for, say, Neil Walker. So, don't you have to judge them differently? Is the bar for Neil Walker set in the same place as the bar for Justin Upton? I kind of doubt it. But to get a count at the end, I need to put a final "Hit" or "Miss" on each prospect. Upton has not become the superstar many expected. But he's a good player with the potential still to step up in class, and I don't think you can call that a miss. Final analysis: Hit.

[Edgy MD]

The problem with the Sheffy comparisons is that period of consistency and peak productivity coincided with the period when all the rules were out the window.

[Frayed Knot]

Position Players (listed alphabetically) most likely to go at or near the top of the draft:

Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego: The best bat in the draft, Bryant is a 6-5, 205 bruiser with outstanding right-handed power and the ability to hit the ball out of any park to all fields. He also has good pure hitting skills, controls the strike zone well, and has a chance to stick at third. Even if he moves over to first base, this is an All-Star caliber bat. He's hit more home runs this year than most college teams.

Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS, Loganville, Georgia: The red-haired, right-handed, 6-1, 190 pound outfielder has thrived in high school and may have even more bat speed than Bryant, although his approach to hitting (understandably) is less refined. He may wind up in left field, but his bat will certainly play there given his outstanding power potential. His makeup is considered a big plus.

Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, Washington: High school catching is a strength in this draft and McGuire is the best of the lot, a 6-1, 190 pound lefty hitter with athleticism and excellent defensive skills. His hitting is considered solid and this complete package should take him off the board before the middle of the first round, perhaps even in the top five.

Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, Georgia: Often compared to high school competitor Frazier, Meadows is a lefty hitter at 6-3, 210 pounds. His across-the-board tools may be a bit stronger than Frazier's, but his bat has less zip in it and he plays with less energy. He still projects as a major-league regular and is a lock to go in the top half of the draft.

Colin Moran, 3B, University of North Carolina: Bryant's outstanding season has overshadowed the progress Moran (listed at 6-4, 180) has made in tapping into his left-handed power. The nephew of B.J. Surhoff, Moran already had impressive pure hitting skills and excellent plate discipline. His defense has improved, and there are rumors he could go first-overall to the Houston Astros.

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University: A burly-but-athletic type at 6-1, 215, Renfroe took a giant step forward this spring as a power hitter thanks to better plate discipline. He's a certain first-rounder at this point and could go in the top ten under certain scenarios. His strong arm would look good in right field.

Dominic Smith, 1B, Serra HS, Los Angeles, California: Smith was seen as a first-rounder pre-season due to his bat speed and strong defense and he's done nothing to change that assessment, ticketed for at least the middle of the round and perhaps sooner. He's athletic at 6-1, 200 and projects to hit for both power and average from the left side.


and others

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University: A burly-but-athletic type at 6-1, 215, Renfroe took a giant step forward this spring as a power hitter thanks to better plate discipline. He's a certain first-rounder at this point and could go in the top ten under certain scenarios. His strong arm would look good in right field.

I find myself kind of rooting for a college outfielder who can get to the Mets ASAP. I don't know if this is the guy, but of those listed he best fits that description.

[bmfc1]

I'm w/Grimm. One mock had him going to the Mets and that's fine with me.

[Frayed Knot]

Certainly is the type of player you'd like to see here, and the added bonus of the (hopefully) shorter lead time.
Doesn't sound like he'll be one of the first few picked either. Several of those [bryant, Fraizer] are expected to be among the first 4 or 5 picks so we can probably cross them off our wish list right now.

[Frayed Knot]

Meanwhile: Pitchers
Gray & Appel likely to be the first to go


Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University: Last year's unsigned first-round pick by the Pirates at eighth overall, Appel's decision to return to school looks wise as he's now slated to go off the board in the first couple of picks. The 6-5, 215-pounder has a mid-90s heater and has added polish to his slider and changeup, giving him top-of-the-rotation upside.

Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle HS, New Castle, Indiana: The best lefty in the draft, Ball is a super-projectable 6-6, 180-pounder but already throws in the 90s and has good command of his curveball and change-up. He's very athletic and also a prospect as an outfielder, though teams prefer him on the mound. He should come off the board in the first dozen picks.

Jonathan Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma: Gray shot to the top of the draft boards with an outstanding spring. A 6-4, 240 pound righty, he showed improved command of a 95-100 MPH fastball along with a nasty slider and a decent change-up, pushing past Appel in the eyes of many teams for looking like a future number one starter. He should go first or second overall.

Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University: This big 6-5, 235 pound southpaw broke through in the Cape Cod League last summer with an outstanding fastball. His secondary stuff can be erratic and his velocity was up-and-down this spring, but he was still considered a lock to go in the top half of the round. It is unclear how shoulder tightness that kept him out of action this past Tuesday will impact his status.

Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada: Another breakout pitcher, the 6-2, 180 pound Shipley is a former shortstop who polished his mechanics this spring and throws strikes with a mid-90s fastball and a good change. His breaking ball still needs some work, but he should come off the board in the top 10 or 12 picks.

Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas: Rated as a top five talent pre-season, Stanek has had an inconsistent spring but could still go in the top dozen on the basis of his 6-4, 190 pound build, low-to-mid-90s fastball, hard slider, and developing changeup. He could be a number two starter if all goes well, or a power reliever if it doesn't.

Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X HS, Tomball, Texas: The top high school pitcher in the class, this Texas A&M quarterback recruit is a terrific athlete with a strong 6-3, 195 pound build, a low-to-mid-90s fastball, and a promising array of secondary pitches including a curve, slider, and change. He should go in the top six picks and won't likely present a signability problem in that range.


Others and comments

[bmfc1]

Stanek was projected as the Mets pick by [u:2xqib0hi]Baseball America[/u:2xqib0hi].

[Edgy MD]

You get a two-way prospect, I always thought it'd be a fun way to do it to have him pitch during the summer, and play outfield in winter ball --- or vice versa if the team favors him as a batter.

Injury risk is increased, but that's maybe a fair tradeoff for a guy with two-way potential.

Chances are it wouldn't work, and you drop it after two years, but you at least can be sure you made the right choice, and he reaches the bigs with experience on the other side of the ball if you need it.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Guy on the Internet has the Mets picking either HS CF Austin Meadows; New Mexico 1B DJ Peterson; or Mississippi State RF Hunter Renfrow.

Jonathan "Hold the" Mayo sez we get HS C Reese McGuire.

[Edgy MD]

That GotI is an unimpeachable source.

[list:xi10d3k6][*:xi10d3k6]Austin Meadows[/*:m:xi10d3k6]
[*:xi10d3k6]DJ Peterson[/*:m:xi10d3k6]
[*:xi10d3k6]Hunter Renfrow[/*:m:xi10d3k6]
[*:xi10d3k6]Reese McGuire[/*:m:xi10d3k6][/list:u:xi10d3k6]

All I know is that whoever the Mets pick, he's spending a piece o' that bonus money on one badassed truck.

[metirish]

is this the same guy?

[metirish]

actually I think this is him, note the name spelling

[MFS62]

If French Fries are his favorite food, why is he only 160 pounds?

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm on Team Renfroe.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Got the Bryce Harper thing going with the eye-black and No. 34.

[metirish]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Got the Bryce Harper thing going with the eye-black and No. 34.

Cole Hamels won't be best pleased with him then!

[bmfc1]

More on Renfroe:
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/05/baseball-americas-2013-draft-preview-has-of-hunter-renfroe-at-no-11.html

[Frayed Knot]

With the usual caveat that 'Mock Draft' = 'Very Slightly Educated Guess', I saw a mock that had the thought-to-be untouchable Clint Fraizer falling to #11
I'm sure the Mets would be happy if that happened as would Justin Turner since it would give him another red-head to play with. Must be all kinds of tough social problems for him being the only RH minority on his team.




btw, Mayo on mlb.com doesn't rank Renfroe until 28th in his Top-100 so yaneverknow.

Mayo on Renfroe:
Scouting Grades* (present/future): Hit: 3/5 | Power: 4/5 | Run: 5/5 | Arm: 6/6 | Field: 4/5 | Overall: 4/5
Raw and toolsy, Renfroe has developed considerably in his three years at Mississippi State.

While there's still some swing and miss to his game, he's progressed tremendously at the plate. The more consistent of a hitter he can become, the more he can tap into his outstanding raw power. He's a good runner who's even better underway, and he has a cannon for an arm. He's strong and physical and might very well fit the profile for a right fielder at the highest level.

The team that believes Renfroe will hit enough will be the one to take him in the early stages of the Draft.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Calling mock drafts is like picking the next 30 presidents --- everything that happens re-writes what will follow, so the plausability of correctly picking each successive pick rapidly deteriorates with each proceeding one.

Would love to see Nate Silver take a crack at it, though.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Calling mock drafts is like picking the next 30 prsidents ...

Except that, y'know, all the draft picks are currently alive.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Other guys to watch: Teddy Stankewicz, who rejected our offer last year, is back and considered a pretty good pitching prospect.

L.J. Mazzilli, on his way to the NCAA regionals with UConn, who rejected the Twins last year.

[Frayed Knot]

L J Mazzilli appearing on BA's list right at the mid-point of their Top-500 list, right above the name of Mike (grandson) Yastrzemski

Highest legacy pick I've found is Houston area HS 1Bman Cavan Biggio at #67

Teddy Stankiewicz, currently hurling for Seminole State (OK) JuCo, is seeded at #77, just two picks below where he was picked last year

Top-500

[A Boy Named Seo]

Mock draft number 900 (Baseball America, this one) has us taking 1st team All-American slugger DJ Peterson (3b/1b) from New Mexico. .411/.525/.823 with 18 homers in 209 AB.

Real thing in 3 days...

[Vic Sage]

just get some fucker who can hit please!

[A Boy Named Seo]

"Sandy, explain your thought process behind this pick at #11."

"Our game plan, as always, has been to get some fucker who can hit, and we felt he was best hitting fucker available, so we jumped at the chance to nab this fucker."

[Edgy MD]

Some people try and address a specific organizational weakness. Do I have fuckers who can catch? Are we short on outfuckers? My philosophy --- and you can see this in San Diego, Oakland... what have you --- take the best fucker available. Who knows, three-four years down the road, where the fuck you'll need that fucker? FUCK!