Hot Seat Ike

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: And more of the doubles will shake out as HR) That's gold right there...another Jamenson for that man please.

Park factors, and things like if he pulls it a little more versus driving it into the gap. Where the pitch is in the strikezone when he turns on it, etc. All factors in turning doubles into home runs. (or vice versa)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He puts the I-K-E into StInKiEst.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Believe It Or Not: Ike Davis
By Mark Simon | ESPNNewYork.com


Should the Mets believe in the long-term prospects of Ike Davis?

For the next three days, we�re going to write about Mets who have performed well recently, taking a closer look at their strengths and weaknesses, then get a scout�s perspective on a longer-term outlook for that player. Yesterday, we wrote about Juan Lagares Today�s piece focuses on Ike Davis. Believe It ... Davis� overall body of work shows promise, though most of that came in the earliest stages of his career. In each of the last two spring trainings, Davis has impressed and flashes of that show up from time to time, like last season, when he clubbed 20 homers in 251 at-bats after the All-Star Break, and since his recall from Las Vegas, in which he has a .478 on-base percentage and a .920 OPS. Ike Davis in 2013 Before Demotion Since Recall BA .161 .302 OBP .242 .478 Slug pct .258 .442 Chase Rate 23% 17% Miss Rate 33% 20% The biggest positive for Davis since his recall has been the drop in both his chase rate (how often he swings at pitches thrown out of the strike zone) and his miss rate (how often he misses on his swings). We�ve noted those in the chart [above]. Davis has also shown himself to be a competent, if not slightly above average defender at first base, based on advanced defensive metrics, though he�s yet to be as good as his rookie season, when he had 10 Defensive Runs Saved. ... Or Not Davis has had not one but two bad multi-month stretches, one in each of the last two seasons. Those have been highlighted by wild swings and misses, sometimes on pitches that look like they�re going to hit him. This recent run of success has been an odd one. His only homer during this stretch came against the Nationals in a game the Mets were winning 8-0 at the time. He does have nine doubles, but a bunch of those have been bloops rather than the potential long balls that fans grew used to seeing. We utilize a video-review service that rates every batted ball as being either �hard-hit,� �medium-hit,� or �soft-hit� (several major league teams use either this service or others). Davis� rate of balls hit that were classified as �hard-hit� prior to his demotion was 14.9 percent. With an increase in performance since his return, you�d expect that number to go up a little bit, but it�s actually about the same, 14.5 percent. His season rate is 14.8 percent -- the same as New York Yankees reserve infielder Jayson Nix. Scout�s Take The scout we spoke to acknowledged not having seen Davis much during this hot streak, but he wasn�t sold on what he did see. �Ike needs to reinvent himself as a hitter. I know he�s not chasing as much lately. But my concern for him is that every pitch, whether he�s taking it or at the point of contact, he never looks balanced. He can hit the ball on the screws and still look like he�s early or late. I would not bet on him lasting on that. If he can keep doing what he�s doing and have a 10-year career, God bless him.�

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/75349/believe-it-or-not-ike-davis

[metirish]

The scout we spoke to acknowledged not having seen Davis much during this hot streak,

Kind of kills the whole piece for me......

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: The scout we spoke to acknowledged not having seen Davis much during this hot streak, Kind of kills the whole piece for me......

yeah, immediately makes me dismiss the next couple of sentences. There's a lot to be said for a guy using the stance and form that feels natural to him. Just because he doesn't look like how others look (or how other players you've decided are similar look) doesn't mean it won't work.

But what I wrote in the comments of that article stands: (looking now, my comment is not there. odd)

Pitchers will adjust to Ike, and he'll have to make a choice of either staying with the program and waiting for his pitch (And resulting in more strikeouts) or start expanding his zone again which will lead to more flailing and more missing his pitches when he gets them in bad counts. THAT is what the Mets need to see from Ike. From the eye, he's worked a couple of 0-2 counts for walks and hits and such, instead of the insta-flail at the next pitch for an out that he did prior. If he can maintain that, even if that 0-2 pitch nips a corner or is a nasty slider on the (bigger to lefties!) just off the outside corner, then there is some hope.

Davis has gone through some really really bad stretches, but he's also made adjustments that had him as an All-Star level player afterwards. Making those adjustments counts for something, and shouldn't be summarily dismissed.

[ashie62]

I must have missed Ike's hot streak..

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: I must have missed Ike's hot streak..

smoke-and-mirrors streak really

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/75349/believe-it-or-not-ike-davis

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That he's willing to make adjustments is good.

That he's unable or unwilling to make any corrective adjustments until, say, his slumps hit a month or two, and plumb depths unreached by a sociopath mid-'70s Zeppelin roadie on bennies... doesn't bode quite as well.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: That he's willing to make adjustments is good. That he's unable or unwilling to make any corrective adjustments until, say, his slumps hit a month or two, and plumb depths unreached by a sociopath mid-'70s Zeppelin roadie on bennies... doesn't bode quite as well.

or perhaps the adjustments didn't take. It's not like he wasn't trying things earlier.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't believe the Mets can go into another season -- particularly one where they intend on contending -- hoping he doesn't doom us to irrelevancy by May again. Either he has to go, or the team needs the kind of depth to bat him 8th on opening day.

[Edgy MD]

Well, if he's productive enough going forward to seduce the Mets into returning him in 2014, maybe they open the season with a plan B firmly in place.

Back in 2010, Daniel Murphy was an effective plan C or D after Mike Jacobs crapped out early, and maybe he's an effective backup plan for 2014. Start him at second and move him to first if Ike flatlines, adding Flores at second. Else, maybe Flores could be Plan B and go directly to first.

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't believe the Mets can go into another season -- particularly one where they intend on contending -- hoping he doesn't doom us to irrelevancy by May again. Either he has to go, or the team needs the kind of depth to bat him 8th on opening day.

I agree. I've been a big fan of Ike, and had high hopes for him. But enough is enough. It's time to go in another direction.

[Edgy MD]

I just like the idea of not giving Flores a position, but making him take one away from somebody. Maybe that's Ike. Maybe, indeed, that happens this year.

[dgwphotography]

Edgy MD wrote: I just like the idea of not giving Flores a position, but making him take one away from somebody. Maybe that's Ike. Maybe, indeed, that happens this year.

I was up for a Duda/Satin platoon at first, but this works, too.

[Centerfield]

How much money do they expect Ike to make in arbitration? Isn't it supposed to be based on how good you are? We should make the arbitrator sit through some of his May at-bats.

I have no issue with bringing him back (so long as there are options, such as Duda/Satin/Flores). I agree though that we can't count on him to be a middle of the lineup threat any longer.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: How much money do they expect Ike to make in arbitration? Isn't it supposed to be based on how good you are? We should make the arbitrator sit through some of his May at-bats. I have no issue with bringing him back (so long as there are options, such as Duda/Satin/Flores). I agree though that we can't count on him to be a middle of the lineup threat any longer.

who knows with arbitrators. probably not that much of a raise, and Mets tend to almost always come to terms with these guys anyway, so despite the amount of bytes going to be contributed to how much he makes, it's really not that big a worry.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can't imagine that Ike will get too big a number in arbitration. And if he did, the Mets do have the option to release him (or trade him) and not pay the money.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Looking at how poorly he's done in the traditional-number categories, barring a giganto home-run/base-hit binge in the last six weeks, I can't imagine Ike would receive a raise, much less a significant raise.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I wouldn't think so either, but arbitrators are notoriously unpredictable.

I would hope, though, that Ike and his agent would figure it would be smart enough not to ask for anything too high.

[Lefty Specialist]

It's pretty rare not to get a nice bump in arbitration, no matter how badly you did. He's got non-tender written all over him. Let him annoy some other hitting coach.

[smg58]

I'd give him another year. This Mets team was doomed to irrelevancy before the season started, and they don't have another in-house option at first base with the talent to take the team out of irrelevancy next spring. He's gone several weeks with a near .500 OBP, and I see no reason to dismiss that. The power will come, because eventually pitchers will stop handing him first base and throw him more fastballs.

[Edgy MD]

I disagree that the team was doomed to irrelevancy before the season started.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, if Ike Davis were Ike Davis and not some flaily, shitty, hard-drinking Ike Davis we might be relevant right now.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: I disagree that the team was doomed to irrelevancy before the season started.

Then I'm guessing that you'd probably disagree with what I'm already thinking about next year's Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: How much money do they expect Ike to make in arbitration? Isn't it supposed to be based on how good you are?

In theory, yes, but simply by moving to the arb-eligible category from the non-arb almost automatically gets a player a bump in pay. The obvious reason is because the club no longer has absolute control over salary, but also because said player is now being compared to players with similar service time who themselves have just gotten (or are about to) a bump from arbitration.
IOW, a good 3rd year player (with the exception of those who have already signed L-T deals) generally makes a lot less than many sucky 4th year guys.

[Ceetar]

what do second-arb 1Bman generally make? $5ish? Fangraphs had him at worth about $4.9 if you had to buy that via free agency last year. hell, his 36 games the year before were rated even better.

[batmagadanleadoff]

It remains to be seen how much the Mets invest in their 2014 payroll. Ordinarily, what the current Ike Davis would likely be awarded in a salary arbitration case shouldn't burden the National League franchise from New York City, assuming the franchise wants to retain Ike. But these aren't ordinary times.

[nymr83]

I can't imagine that Ike will get too big a number in arbitration. And if he did, the Mets do have the option to release him (or trade him) and not pay the money.

I'm pretty sure once you go to arbitration its a guaranteed contract.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, an offer of arbitration is an offer. Accepting that offer is an agreement. That's certainly my understanding.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Isn't there some rule that says that if a player is released before March 31, the team only has to pay a portion of his contract? Obviously, that doesn't apply to multi-year contacts, but I think it does apply to one-year deals.

It's possible that such a rule, if it ever existed, may no longer be in effect.