Schaefer 2012

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all three games from the weekend series against the Diamondbacks will close on Wednesday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/4/12 - Diamondbacks 5, Mets 4
Schaefer POTG 05/05/2012 Mets 4, Arizona 3
Schaefer POTG 05/06/2012 Mets 3, Arizona 1

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. observed an interesting occurrence in the play log data for hte 7 may 2012 game between the new york metropolitans and the philadelphia philadeplhias.

in the first inning, philadelphia shortstop jimmy rollins advanced to third base on an error committed by metropolitan centerfielder andres torres. as a result of this play, the philadelphias had a win expectancy of 64.3%. the following batter, philadelphia left fielder john mayberry junior was credited with a sacrifice fly as he drove home the runner on third. as a result of this play, the philadelphias had a win expectancy of 63.8%.

indeed, the chances of winning hte game were reduced by trading the first out of the game for a run. indeed, this holds true for the first out of any inning until the 7th, where the difference is negligible, but slightly favors the run scoring outcome. in the bottom of hte 7th, scoring a runner from third base via a sacrifice fly increases the probability of winning the game from 0.7573 to 0.7613.

for the road team, it is not until the top of the 8th inning where scoring a runner from third via a sacrifice for the first out in a tied game begins to increase the probability of the offensive team winning the game.

if there is already an out in the inning, then the win probabilities favor trading the out for the run. if there are two outs, then, quite clearly, no out should be made in the effort to drive the runner home.

when trailing by one run, there is no situation where sacrificing the first out of an inning to drive the runner on thrid home actually increases hte probability of winning the game.

note: the win expectances for the 7 may 2012 game are derived from fangraphs.com. the remaining win expectancy data are derived from the hardball times' win probability inquirer tool using a 5 run/game environment and a lot of of clicking, clacking, whirring, and transcribing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

SCHAEFER METS PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Week ending April 14: Jon Niese, 6.63 points.
Week ending April 21: Mike Pelfrey, 7.85 points.
Week ending April 28: Lucas Duda, 8.00 points.
Week ending May 5: Johan Santana, 5.71 points.



Voting for Monday night's win in Philadelphia will close on Thursday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/7/12 Mets 5, Phillies 2

[G-Fafif]

Team 10.0

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday night's win in Philadelphia will close on Friday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/8/12 - Mets 7, Phillies 4

[Edgy MD]

Dark horse candidate for player of the series in Philly, I nominate Manny Acosta.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday's win in Philadelphia will close some time over the weekend, perhaps as early as Saturday morning. If you have votes to cast, please try to do so today.

Schaefer POTG 5/9/12 - Mets 10, Phillies 6

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: Dark horse candidate for player of the series in Philly, I nominate Manny Acosta.

He was like Mr. Good Omen in there, wasn't he? Every time he came in with men on, I felt myself groaning, and every time he left, I found myself proven wrong.

[Edgy MD]

And every time he finished his inning, the offense came out and turned the game around. His name is Emmanuel, and he redeems ballgames.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the three games played in Miami this past weekend would normally have closed on Wednesday, but due to the access issues we've been having I'll give it at least another day.

[Edgy MD]

Good show.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Now that the forum is back to normal, I'll be catching up on my Schaefer tallying tomorrow.

All games listed below will close on Friday morning. The two games against the Brewers are especially short on votes, so if anyone hasn't voted yet and still wants to, please try to do so today.

Schaefer POTG 5/11/12 - Marlins 6, Mets 5
Schaefer POTG, 5/12/2012: Mets 9 Marlins 3
Schaefer POTG 5/13/12 - Marlins 8, Mets 4
Schaefer POTG 5/14/2012: Mets 3 Brewers 1
Schaefer POTG 5/15/2012: Brewers 8 Mets 0

[Guest themetfairy]

So many deserving players, so little Schaefer....

I love these kinds of dilemmas

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday's loss to the Reds will close some time over the weekend, perhaps as early as Saturday morning. If you have votes to cast, please try to do so today.

Schaefer POTG 5/16/12 - Reds 6, Mets 3


SCHAEFER METS PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Week ending April 14: Jon Niese, 6.63 points.
Week ending April 21: Mike Pelfrey, 7.85 points.
Week ending April 28: Lucas Duda, 8.00 points.
Week ending May 5: Johan Santana, 5.71 points.
Week ending May 12: David Wright, 8.95 points.

[metsmarathon]

damn! too bad it comes in after the fact, but i just calculated a 6.0 schaefer vote for ramon ramirez in the 0-8 brewers loss. the fuck, you say?

well, he threw 5 strikeouts in 2.2 innings, against a walk and two hits. he also stranded an inherited runner. this adds up to a baseline score of 13.51. in a typical game, with multiple contributers, a 13.51 should be good for about 3 schaefer votes. but when he's the only one doing anything of note (baxter's next with a baseline of 2.50), it scales differently. i should point out that in the strict sense, he actually got a 7.2, but i hit the limit, so he gets bumped down to a 6.0.

for this game, my vote would have looked like this:

Ramirez 6.0
Baxter 1.3
Acosta 1.0
Wright 0.3
Murphy 0.3
Cedeno 0.3

in the prior game, i had batista down as a 6.0, and the 'bot had him at 5.95. fwiw.

[Edgy MD]

I got my 5.43 vote for him in, so...

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for both games played against the Reds last week will close on Tuesday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/16/12 - Reds 6, Mets 3
Schaefer POTG, 05/17/2012 Mets 9, Cincinnati 4

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the three games played in Toronto over the weekend will close on Wednesday morning. Voting is particularly light for the May 19 and May 20 games, but they'll close tomorrow anyway. If you'd still like to vote, please do so today.

Schaefer POTG, 5/18/2012: Blue Jays 14 Mets 5
Schaefer POTG 5/19/12 - Blue Jays 2, Mets 0
Schaefer POTG, 05/20/2012. Mets 6, Toronto 5

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Monday night's loss in Pittsburgh will close on Thursday morning. This game is also low on votes. If you still want to chime in, please try to do so today.

Schaefer POTG 5/21/12 - Pirates 5, Mets 4

[Benjamin Grimm]

SCHAEFER METS PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Week ending April 14: Jon Niese, 6.63 points.
Week ending April 21: Mike Pelfrey, 7.85 points.
Week ending April 28: Lucas Duda, 8.00 points.
Week ending May 5: Johan Santana, 5.71 points.
Week ending May 12: David Wright, 8.95 points.
Week ending May 19: David Wright, 6.76 points.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday night's win over the Pirates will close on Friday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/22/12 - Mets 3, Pirates 2

[Benjamin Grimm]

Only six people have voted for Wednesday afternoon's win over the Pirates. Voting will close some time over the Memorial Day weekend. Please try to get your remaining votes in today.

Schaefer POTG 5/23/12 - Mets 3, Pirates 1

[Benjamin Grimm]

It looks like we may have lost a few regular voters over the last several weeks. Vote counts had been hovering around 10 but now it seems that 7 is a pretty good total.

Nevertheless, the four games from last weekend's San Diego series will all close on Thursday morning. May is coming to a close, so look next week for the Player of the Month announcement.

Schaefer POTG 5/24/12 - Padres 11, Mets 5
Schaefer POTG, 5/25/2012: Mets 6 Padres 1
Schaefer POTG 5/26/12 - Mets 9, Padres 0
Schaefer POTG 05/27/2012 Mets 2, San Diego 0

[metsmarathon]

had a busy work week last week, and am furiuosly playing catchup. should be able to vote on these games by the end of today.

[Benjamin Grimm]

SCHAEFER METS PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Week ending April 14: Jon Niese, 6.63 points.
Week ending April 21: Mike Pelfrey, 7.85 points.
Week ending April 28: Lucas Duda, 8.00 points.
Week ending May 5: Johan Santana, 5.71 points.
Week ending May 12: David Wright, 8.95 points.
Week ending May 19: David Wright, 6.76 points.
Week ending May 26: David Wright, 6.66 points.


Voting for Monday's loss to the Phillies will close on Friday morning.

Schaefer POTG 5/28/12 - Phillies 8, Mets 4

Oh... and Tuesday's game too!

Schaefer POTG 5/29/12 - Mets 6, Phillies 3

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday night's loss to the Phillies will close some time over the weekend. This will also close out the month of May.

Schaefer POTG 5/30/12 - Phillies 10, Mets 6

Also... the Mets will now have two players with the last name of Ramirez. In future games, please remember to vote for "RRamirez" for Ramon or "ERamirez" for Elvin.

[metsmarathon]

yeah, so i'm just gonna hide my little skate key for a few days... i don't want my little tin can to get stomped on.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I was wondering if anyone would dare give Johan less than a 6.

[metsmarathon]

preliminary wpa analysis indicates that david wright gobbled up a decent chunk of win probability.

i'm always a loose cannon though. of course, this season, unlike others, i actually did add in a booster for a no-hitter. we'll see how it works come monday i suppose.

[Edgy MD]

I didn't there. A quirk in my formula gives too much credit for late-inning tack-on runs. It's not really been an issue, considering the way the team has played this year, but I kinda screwed him out of a few points his last time out. This time, I just went in committed to giving him a sexy six. After punching my numbers in, Baxter came up with a zero. I got all arbitrary and bumped that up to 0.5.

I'm not made of stone.