2012 Hall of Fame Ballot (Actual, As It Were)

[Guest attgig]

Barry Larkin 495 (86.4%), Jack Morris 382 (66.7%), Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%), Lee Smith 290 (50.6%), Tim Raines 279 (48.7%), Edgar Martinez 209 (36.5%), Alan Trammell 211 (36.8%), Fred McGriff 137 (23.9%), Larry Walker 131 (22.9%), Mark McGwire 112 (19.5%), Don Mattingly 102 (17.8%), Dale Murphy 83 (14.5%), Rafael Palmeiro 72 (12.6%), Bernie Williams 55 (9.6%), Juan Gonzalez 23 (4.0%), Vinny Castilla 6 (1.0%), Tim Salmon 5 (0.9%), Bill Mueller 4 (0.7%), Brad Radke 2 (0.3%), Javy Lopez 1 (0.2%), Eric Young 1 (0.2%), Jeromy Burnitz 0, Brian Jordan 0, Terry Mulholland 0, Phil Nevin 0, Ruben Sierra 0, Tony Womack 0.

[Guest attgig]

just some thoughts:
NO love for mcgwire... lower than a whole lotta people.
who voted for eric young?
how does Burnitz, Jordan, Mulholland, Nevin, Sierra, and Womack get even on the ballot, but Olerud not?

[Edgy MD]

Morris sure seems to have hit a point of no return, though.

[seawolf17]

Good to see the lack of support for Bernie.

[Frayed Knot]

attgig wrote: NO love for mcgwire... lower than a whole lotta people.

-- Well, we know what that's about. That's about the level he's been at for a couple years now.

who voted for eric young?

-- The hell with that, what FOUR GUYS voted for Bill Mueller?

how does Burnitz, Jordan, Mulholland, Nevin, Sierra, and Womack get even on the ballot, but Olerud not?

-- I don't even understand the reasoning behind this 'pre-vote' winnowing process. They used to put just about everyone who qualified on the ballot and let the voters eliminate the non-starters.
As long as you played the required 10 years and didn't get caught sticking puppies into the microwave or playing with naked children in the shower you should get your day on the ballot.

[Edgy MD]

It was ten years, and then they'd remove maybe one or two who were backup catchers that whole time. Now they seem to be a bit more particular about who makes it onto the ballot and remove, it seems, quite a few guys. I think that's a disservice not only to the players who would be at the back end of the ballot but don't get their day in court, but also those at the top, who don't have as large a pool to make them look good next to.

I think, psychologically, it's a lot easier for a sportswriter to check seven names out of 100 than seven out of 15.

[Frayed Knot]

Top Ten Table

PLAYER	VOTES	PCT
Barry Larkin	495	86.4%
Jack Morris	382	66.7%
Jeff Bagwell	321	56.0%
Lee Smith	290	50.6%
Tim Raines	279	48.7%
Alan Trammel	211	36.8%
Edgar Martinez	209	36.5%
Fred McGriff	137	23.9%
Larry Walker	131	22.9%
Mark McGwire	112	19.5%

I would have preferred to see Raines over Larkin who I always thought missed too much time with injuries, but I don't have a big problem with it.

[Edgy MD]

That's certainly true, but he was the class of the league at his position for a not insignificant period of time, and there's little more we can ask of a Hall-of-Famer than that.

Also went .338 / .397 / .465 // .862 in 78 plate appearances in the going-postal season. Money.

Tim Raines behind Lee Smith is troubling.

What don't I know about Juan Gone? He seems to be behind at least a half dozen clearly inferior players. Am I forgetting that he was caught smuggling HGH out of Mexico or something?

[Benjamin Grimm]

He didn't get traded to the Mets.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: What don't I know about Juan Gone? He seems to be behind at least a half dozen clearly inferior players. Am I forgetting that he was caught smuggling HGH out of Mexico or something?

Mitchell Report mention?

(Hey, it's more than Bagwell's got attached to HIS name.)

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

I think Gonzalez was implicated somewhere. Canseco's book, maybe? His performance sure did fall off quickly. Never recovered from the year in Detroit.

I don't understand why Raines isn't getting more support.

I'd say Morris is on the right path, but there are those stacked classes coming up in the next couple of years. You know rare it is for the writers to elect more than two people. And with all the mega stars on the ballots, I can see Jack needing a bunch more years.

Do you see them putting Morris in ahead of Maddux, Glavine, Smotz? I think Schilling will be an interesting debate -- and I put him in the Morris category.

Clemens should look at the tallies for McGwire and Palmiero and not plan on an induction any time soon.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: He didn't get traded to the Mets.

I still chuckle at the memory of "JUAN GONZALEZ SIGNS!"

[Edgy MD]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I think Gonzalez was implicated somewhere. Canseco's book, maybe? His performance sure did fall off quickly. Never recovered from the year in Detroit.

It certainly began a downfall, but he went to Cleveland the next year and bounced back very strongly --- 140 RBI, in fact, which would be a Met record by a big stretch. He had one good and two poor partial years after that.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml

[Edgy MD]

Neyer offers a way out for voters shy about voting for a potential juicer, evidence or no.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

I don't think Neyer's idea is any good. Recall elections? You going to unscrew a guy's plaque and take away his HOF ring?

[Edgy MD]

It would be pretty cool if they did. If it came to that, things would have to have come to a pretty serious juncture. Rape, murder, child molesting, for instance.

It would also be a motivation for dirty guys to come out right NOW!!!! in order to begin rebuilding their reps before being exposed to that deeper disgrace.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

So you'd take OJ out of the football HoF?

[Edgy MD]

The day I visit the Pro Football Hall of Fame will be the day I really pack it in, self-worth wise.

O.J. was found not guilty --- at least on the murder charges. But I'd certainly support Simpson's ejection if there was a fair and honest mechanism subjecting him to scrutiny by the same body that inducted him.

[nymr83]

Congratulations to Larkin!

The travesty against Tim Raines continues and Bagwell is left out as well. The two of them may both be casualties of the steroid era: one for daring to hit like an 80's hitter in the 80's and the other for having big muscles at a time when "everyone was juicing."
Hopefully Bagwell gets in next year with his teammate Biggio!

Meanwhile, Morris seems to be a BENEFICIARY of the steroid era as the only "justification" I can see for voting for him is to completely ignore the era in which HE pitched and judge him against the pitcher of the late-90's who had to contend with juiced hitters, juiced baseballs, queztec, smaller parks, and sammy sosa's corked bat (joking on that last one)

[G-Fafif]

In 139 games against the Mets, reasonably close to a full season's worth (especially the full season of his MVP year of strike-shortened 1995), Larkin produced at a .279/.346/.393 clip. Scored 70 runs, stole 33 bases, 7 HR, 59 RBI.

� 0-for-3 with a walk in the game that mattered most between the Mets and Reds during his career, Game 163 from October 4, 1999.

� 2-for-4 with a walk in one of the worst games ever, May 6, 1995, when the Mets held an 11-4 lead (featuring Edgardo Alfonzo's first MLB HR, an inside-the-park job) and lost 13-11. Singled to lead off the decisive ninth, in which the Reds scored three times off Doug Henry.

� Made the error that led to the run on April 30, 1988 that nearly caused a riot at Riverfront (Mets won 6-5, Rose, out to argue the call at first on Mookie's grounder, shoved umpire Dave Pallone).

� Doubled and scored twice to help build a 3-1 Reds lead that Bobby Bonilla erased on his last-swing homer off Rob Dibble on August 30, 1992, the Sunday night when that creep Dibble tore his turn-back-the-clock vest off his massive body and left it on the Shea grass.

[Frayed Knot]

Getting close to the limit:

Morris has two years left on his eligibility;
Dale Murphy just one
Trammel has four;
Lee Smith five

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: Getting close to the limit: Morris has two years left on his eligibility; Dale Murphy just one Trammel has four; Lee Smith five

Hopefully the surge of legit hall of famers in the next few years will see Morris go bye-bye and lose eligibility.
Murphy seems a goner at this point, he doesn't have enough momentum to get in NEXT year even if you assume some sort of "last chance" jump in support.
It'll be sad to see Trammell go, but hopefully the veterans committee will remember him better than the writers have.
Smith can hopefully be a casualty of numbers as well, I don't think a 1-iining pitcher has a place in the HOF

[ashie62]

Larkin? I guess they had to throw someone out there in August.

[Fman99]

Ashie62 wrote: Larkin? I guess they had to throw someone out there in August.

Yeah, he's seriously underwhelming to me. Is he really that much better than Alan Trammell?

[nymr83]

No, he's not that much better than Trammell, but both deserved to get in. Larkin-Trammell-Ripken were 3 great shortstops before their numbers got dwarfed in a different era by Arod-Jeter-Nomar(remember him? He dropped off a cliff!)

[Edgy MD]

If Larkin isn't one of the ten best shortstops in MLB history, I'm a monkey's uncle.

Certainly one of the ten best retired ones.

[Edgy MD]

G-Fafif wrote: In 139 games against the Mets, reasonably close to a full season's worth (especially the full season of his MVP year of strike-shortened 1995), Larkin produced at a .279/.346/.393 clip. Scored 70 runs, stole 33 bases, 7 HR, 59 RBI. � 0-for-3 with a walk in the game that mattered most between the Mets and Reds during his career, Game 163 from October 4, 1999. � 2-for-4 with a walk in one of the worst games ever, May 6, 1995, when the Mets held an 11-4 lead (featuring Edgardo Alfonzo's first MLB HR, an inside-the-park job) and lost 13-11. Singled to lead off the decisive ninth, in which the Reds scored three times off Doug Henry. � Made the error that led to the run on April 30, 1988 that nearly caused a riot at Riverfront (Mets won 6-5, Rose, out to argue the call at first on Mookie's grounder, shoved umpire Dave Pallone). � Doubled and scored twice to help build a 3-1 Reds lead that Bobby Bonilla erased on his last-swing homer off Rob Dibble on August 30, 1992, the Sunday night when that creep Dibble tore his turn-back-the-clock vest off his massive body and left it on the Shea grass.

� Has a daughter named Brielle D'Shea Larkin. Chipper isn't the only opponent that liked Shea.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Larkin's top-10, bordering on top-5. Trammell's definitely top-15, and on the outer edge of the top-10 borderline.

[G-Fafif]

Larkin was one of the greats at his position in his time and as long as I've been watching baseball, but damned if I can remember anything truly signature about him, whether it's episodic or characteristic. Consistently excellent but unless you're a Reds fan, maybe not "memorable". Without the close 1995 MVP vote going his way (Dante Bichette's traditional powerhouse numbers for a surprise playoff team discounted by Coors Field being Coors Field and Greg Maddux having the silly judgment to be a pitcher), I wonder if he would have made it so relatively soon.

Was the first SS to win NL MVP since Ernie Banks in 1959, and the last one until Jimmy Rollins in 2007.

[Edgy MD]

Bill James ranking around the turn of the (21st) century, and not including Negro Leaguers, had it this way:

1. Wagner
   
2. Vaughn
   
3. Ripken
   
4. Yount
   
5. Banks
   
6. Larkin
   
7. Smith
   
8. Cronin
   
9. Trammell
   
10. Reese
    
11. Appling
    
12. Boudreau
    
13. Aparaicio
    
14. Davis
    
15. Fregosi
    
16. Rizzuto
    
17. Rodriguez (with Nomar Garciaparra and Drek Jeter stuck in here at 17.5 for no good reason
    
18. Jennings
    
19. Wills
    
20. Pesky

Now, I think we need to consider a list from the likes of Bill James as, at least, somewhat authoritative. I'm perfectly willing to accept Jeter and Rodriguez as having passed him, using James' standard that a guy with a legacy split at more than one position gets the totality of his career ranked at that position. But I also think he passes Mr. Cub in the remaining four years of his career, also. We're left with a top eleven that looks something like:

1. Wagner
   
2. Rodriguez
   
3. Vaughn
   
4. Ripken
   
5. Yount
   
6. Jeter
   
7. Larkin
   
8. Banks
   
9. Smith
   
10. Cronin
    
11. Trammell

Now, for another picture, take away the James pretend-he-only-played-one-position standard, and we look at it with a lot of points Wagner, Rodriguez, Ripken, Yount, and Banks accrued at other positions. Trammell gets himself sneaking into the top ten that way mebbe, probably ahead of Banks.

Hardly a throw-out. Great players, these guys. Just didn't have Ripken's publicist. Or Derek Jeter's.