Prospect Lists of 2011-2012

[Edgy MD]

smg58 wrote: By jerking him around, I meant sending him to the pen and then changing course midseason, which I'll argue is worse for a young arm than doing one or the other, and also worse than starting the season with him in the AAA rotation and then shortening him up in August if the Mets needed pen help.

I don't think that's jerking him around at all if that's the established and explicit plan all along and he knows that. And I'd sure like to see some data or case studies demonstrating that this is worse than spending the year in the pen or the rotation. It seems highly speculative to me.

smg58 wrote: I think the complaints had to do with the timing of it. It's not the idea of starting his major league career in the bullpen; there is indeed lots of precedent for that and the Rangers have lately turned it into a science. It's that he was very young and lacking in seasoning, he hadn't fully developed his arsenal of pitches, and he had given the Mets no reason to think that he was already a better relief pitcher than Parnell, who was demoted in his stead despite pitching decently out of the pen in 2009.

Bobby Parnell had a 5.30 ERA in 2009. He openly admitted he pitched his way off the team with a terrible second half in 2009 and a lackluster spring training in 2010. Farming him out there is not only utterly defensible, but it paid off, as he came back to the team a stronger pitcher.

[Edgy MD]

I'll also throw out the notion that the utility of an allegedly hopeless season has frequently been believed to be the opportunity to throw some barely ripe talent into the breach, get them a taste of the competitive standards of the bigs, and if they get their heads handed to them, chalk it off to experience.

Now I don't necessarily believe that, but i'm still not seeing with the self-evident clarity that others have that the plan to use Mejia in relief for half a year in Queens before returning him to Buffalo to start was foolish on the face of it.

(I am certainly willing to brandish, however, the notion that his usage pattern under Jerry Manuel could have been conceived more wisely, as I have long since developed a broad disdain for Jerry Manuel's bullpen strategies.)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't mind that they tried it. I sort of liked that they were doing something that other teams wouldn't necessarily do.

I think the better debate is the underlying philosophy of Bernazard/Minaya: They believed generally that "good" players would become what they become regardless of who their teammates or opponents were at any single point along the curve. I'm not sure that's wrong on the face of it.

A lot of the debate just looks at Mejia in isolation; or focuses on arbitration clocks and other things that are sort of beside the underlying motivation.

[Ceetar]

It also fit neatly into the narrative of "Omar and Jerry are doing desperate things to save their jobs!"

[smg58]

Edgy DC wrote: Bobby Parnell had a 5.30 ERA in 2009. He openly admitted he pitched his way off the team with a terrible second half in 2009 and a lackluster spring training in 2010. Farming him out there is not only utterly defensible, but it paid off, as he came back to the team a stronger pitcher.

I said Parnell had a decent year in the pen, where his ERA was 3.46.

As for spring training, Mejia's ERA was distorted because six of the nine runs he allowed were unearned, and his 9 Ks in 17 innings suggested that he wasn't ready to make bats miss at this level. I will not argue that demoting Parnell was indefensible, but Mejia should have needed to prove he was clearly the better option over more experienced players. He didn't, and his long-term upside shouldn't have influenced the decision.

[Frayed Knot]

And now Baseball Prospectus weighs in with their list.

System In 20 Words Or Less: With improvement coming via all three areas�draft, trades, international�the Mets are finally moving in the right direction.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Harvey, RHP
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Juan Lagares, OF
6. Jordany Valdespin, 2B
7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
8. Reese Havens, 2B
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Michael Fulmer, RHP
11. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

Nine More:
12. Cory Mazzoni, RHP: 2011 second-rounder was great in brief debut; will move to rotation in 2012.
13. Akeel Morris, RHP: 20-year-old Virgin Islands native has big, but unrefined, power arm.
14. Darin Gorski, LHP: Had arguably the best stats of any pitcher in the system, but he�s older and has more finesse than stuff.
15. Phillip Evans, SS: Over slot 15th-rounder profiles as offense-oriented second baseman
16. Wilmer Flores, INF: Bat has never taken expected move forward while scouts see big moves down defensive spectrum.
17. Jefry Marte, 3B: Age and strong showing in Arizona Fall League saves him; some scouts still believe in the bat.
18. Juan Urbina, LHP: Shows flashes of high-ceiling potential, but not enough of them.
19. Chris Schwinden, RHP: Reached the big leagues, but what you see is what you get with potential to be a number-five starter.
20. Darrell Ceciliani, OF: Plus speed and a leadoff man's approach, but never got going with the bat in full-season debut.


Then you need a subscription to see the profiles of players 2-10.
Last year, for some reason, they inexplicably left the NYM list unprotected but all we get this year in detail is Harvey.

1. Matt Harvey, RHP
DOB: 3/27/89
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2010, University of North Carolina
2011 Stats: 2.37 ERA (76-67-24-92) at High-A (14 G). 4.53 ERA (59.2-58-23-64) at Double-A (12 G)
Tools Profile: Pure power pitcher.

* Year in Review: Seventh overall pick in the 2010 draft reached Double-A in debut and missed plenty of bats.
* The Good: Harvey attacks hitters with a 92-95 mph fastball that can touch 97 and features plenty of life. His slider gives him a second bat-missing offering with its heavy two plane break, and Harvey is comfortable throwing it at any point in the count. He's an efficient pitcher who throws strikes and has the kind of body and delivery designed to handle a big league workload.
* The Bad: Harvey's changeup continues to lag behind the rest of his arsenal and lacks deception or enough movement. His delivery is easy to pick up for left-handed hitters, which leads to some large platoon splits.
* Ephemera: Rich Dotson (1977), who has a career losing record of 111-113, is the only seventh overall pick with more than 50 major league wins, but Clayton Kershaw (2006) should change that in 2012.
* Perfect World Projection: At least a number-three starter with a good chance of become a number-two with some refinements.
* Fantasy Impact: Harvey has the potential to be an early pick if he reaches his potential.
* Path to the Big Leagues: Harvey will begin the year either back at Double-A or in Triple-A Buffalo and should reach the big leagues at some point during the season.
* ETA: Late 2012.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Kevin Burkhardt mentioned on Mets Hot Stove last week that the current plan is for Harvey to start the season in Binghamton.

[MFS62]

I thought that in their lexicon a "five star" prospect would translate to more than "at least a #3 starter".

Later

[ashie62]

Reese Havens, 25 years old, tick-tock.

[Edgy MD]

Let's play "Fill in the Blank."

You gotta ___________!

[Vic Sage]

_____ have heart!
miles and miles and miles of heart!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"Remain cautiously optimistic, but hedge your bets a lot, because many, many things can happen between here and the majors?"

[Edgy MD]

That wasn't really addressed at whole room, but cautious optimism has slipped toward reckless pessimism with our brother ashie, so I'm trying to be encouraging here.

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: I thought that in their lexicon a "five star" prospect would translate to more than "at least a #3 starter".

Kevin Goldstein (BP's prospect guy) does seem to dole out 'Five Star' ratings a bit too easily sometimes -- a lot more freely than, say, John Sickels gives out 'A' grades in his rankings.
Still, calling a pitcher with one pro season under his belt "at least" a #3 and a chance to be better than that isn't exactly downplaying things, especially seeing as how #3 starters tend to be worth about $10 million/year on the open market.

[Guest attgig]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-new-york-mets/

the list:
1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
2. Matt Harvey, RHP
3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Wilmer Flores, 3B/SS
6. Michael Fulmer, RHP
7. Jordany Valdespin, 2B/SS
8. Cesar Puello, OF
9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
10. Cory Vaughn, OF
11. Reese Havens, 2B
12. Phillip Evans, 2B/SS
13. Jack Leathersich, LHP
14. Akeel Morris, RHP
15. Darrell Ceciliani, OF
SLEEPER ALERT: Domingo Tapia, RHP
THE EXCEPTION: Jenrry Mejia, RHP

go to the site for the writeups.

[Edgy MD]

Steven Matz: "Remember me?"

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

F that guy.

[Fman99]

Steven Matz: "Remember me?"

Remember him? I adopted him! And then I left him crying in a dumpster, I'm the worst adoptive Mets prospect parent EVER. Maybe he wouldn't suck if I wasn't in the gym, dancing to "Never Say Goodbye" with my prom date.

[Edgy MD]

Maybe it was the hemming and hawing on the allegiance question.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6166561

[Frayed Knot]

I never did see an accounting on what the "setbacks" were following the TJ

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Let's play "Fill in the Blank." You gotta ___________!

Believe

[Edgy MD]

Fuckin' A!

[Edgy MD]

Rob Castellano of Amazin' Avenue ranks numbers 41-50 on their way to a comprehensive top 50..

[metirish]

Edgy DC wrote: Rob Castellano of Amazin' Avenue ranks numbers 41-50 on their way to a comprehensive top 50..

reading through it but right of the bat #43) RHP Luis Mateo seems interesting.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, a lot of the talk that Moneyball is obsolete because everybody has read it and everybody is looking for on-base guys misses the point in that the idea is to look for any assets undervalued by the marketplace. And some of those Sandy and his team seem to try to zero in on are guys a year removed from surgery and guys who wore at their welcome at another home after a failed PED test. Maybe guys who got thrown overboard for lying or some other signing scandal, but are still talented, are guys Sandy has a file on.

Still the DSL at 21 is a man pitching to boys.

[Frayed Knot]

Sickels puts the Mets in the middle of the pack as he ranks the systems overall.

[Edgy MD]

Has Adrian Rosario, the PTBNL who wasn't Danny Herrera in the Francisco Rodriguez trade, appeared on any prospect lists?

[Edgy MD]

John Sickles publishes his mid-season Top 120. Mostly upward movement from the Mets:



Mets outrank their NL East rivals in number of prospects ranked

Mets: 5
Miami Marlins of Florida: 4
Atlanta: 3
Washington: 3
Philadephia: 2 (oh, s'it!).

But, of course, many of those teams may have their top "prospects" already in the big leagues and ineligible for these lists, (or in Philly's case, suspended from the bigs for drug violations).

I wish they just ranked the top players under 26 (or so). It seems silly (and deceptive) that players graduate by appearing on the big league roster, when the gross majority of their value still lies in speculation about their futures.

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball America's Mid-Season Top 50

1. Dylan Bundy, rhp, Orioles
2. Jurickson Profar, ss, Rangers
3. Wil Myers, of, Royals
4. Taijuan Walker, rhp, Mariners
5. Danny Hultzen, lhp, Mariners
6. Gerrit Cole, rhp, Pirates
7. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Diamondbacks
8. Jose Fernandez, rhp, Marlins
9. Manny Machado, ss, Orioles
10. Zack Wheeler, rhp, Mets
11. Mike Olt, 3b, Rangers
12. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
13. Matt Barnes, rhp, Red Sox
14. Francisco Lindor, ss, Indians
15. Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pirates
16. Archie Bradley, rhp, Diamondbacks
17. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Rockies
18. Oscar Taveras, of, Cardinals
19. Travis D'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays
20. Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals
21. Christian Yelich, of, Marlins
22. Miguel Sano, 3b, Twins
23. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Astros
24. Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves
25. Javier Baez, ss, Cubs
26. Carlos Martinez, rhp, Cardinals
27. Billy Hamilton, ss, Reds
28. Mason Williams, of, Yankees
29. Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Royals
30. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees
31. Xander Bogaerts, ss, Red Sox
32. Jackie Bradley, of, Red Sox
33. Matt Davidson, 3b, Diamondbacks
34. Matt Harvey, rhp, Mets
35. Nick Franklin, ss, Mariners
36. Starling Marte, cf, Pirates
37. Jake Marisnick, cf, Blue Jays
38. Anthony Gose, cf, Blue Jays
39. Tyler Austin, of, Yankees
40. Alen Hanson, ss, Pirates
41. Cody Buckel, rhp, Rangers
42. James Paxton, lhp, Mariners
43. Jean Segura, 2b/ss, Angels
44. Kolten Wong, 2b, Cardinals
45. George Springer, of, Astros
46. Bubba Starling, of, Royals
47. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Rays
48. Tyler Thornburg, rhp, Brewers
49. Zach Lee, rhp, Dodgers
50. Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Padres

[ashie62]

#48 Thornburg has started some games for the Brewers.

Harvey might be ready 2013.