2011 Rankings Project

[Frayed Knot]

OK you’ve judged the rest now come rank the best.
We've done the top rookie thing, sorted the best starters and relievers, and voted our choice for top IFs and OFs.
Now it’s time to put it all together.

Most if not all of youse know the procedure by this point. Tell us (if you choose to participate) who the best 30 Mets were for 2011 either by submitting your own list or by commenting, analyzing, suggesting changes in, or just plain ridiculing the lists of others (that last part is particularly fun).

As per the usual reminder, how you construct your list is up to you but the results should be something you’re willing to defend if you think you’re right or alter if convinced otherwise. Also remember that the idea is to judge the players strictly on the basis of their contributions to the 2011 season and not grade “on a curve” by including factors such as their relative salaries, preseason expectations, or anticipated future value.

The final list will be a conglomerate of all the opinions submitted and will be merged into the rankings we have for the previous 49 seasons to form the CPF All-Time NYM Rankings - 50th year edition.

There were 46 wearers of the uniform this year, listed below by frequency of appearance.

Position players (23) by ABs
Reyes -- Pagan -- Bay -- Turner -- Wright
Murphy -- Beltran -- Thole -- Tejada -- Duda
Harris -- Paulino -- Pridie -- Evans -- Davis
Hairston -- Nickeas -- Emaus -- Baxter -- Satin
Hu -- Martinez -- Pascucci


Pitchers (23) by IP
Dickey -- Pelfrey -- Capuano -- Gee - Niese
Beato -- Parnell -- Carrasco -- Acosta -- Isringhausen
Rodriguez -- Igarashi -- Byrdak -- Batista -- Buchholz
Young -- Schwinden -- Stinson -- Thayer -- Misch
O’Connor -- Boyer -- Herrera

[Frayed Knot]

Starting off with the hitters:

* Reyes - Clear #1 hitter for this year. League MVP candidate until the injuries hit, still led the team in PA, AB, BA, Runs, Hits, 2Bs, 3Bs, Steals.
*****
* Beltran - Topped team in HRs, RBIs, Walks, OBA, SLG despite being traded barely half-way through the season.
* Murphy - .320/.362/.448 over 400+ PAs while playing three positions (even if none of them within spitting distance of GG level)
* Wright - 5th in ABs despite the long absence says a lot about the competition; his steady if unspectacular production ranks him above the remaining ‘full-timers’
* Pagan - Reduced production and defense. Stays ahead of Bay due to SBs and position
* Bay - Virtually identical stats to Pagan but at a corner spot
* Turner - Nice surprise; streaky hitter who made the most of his hits [.350/.480/.500 w/RiSP vs .206/.270/.286 w/bases empty]. Not great range at 2B, but tough as shit on the DP
* Duda - ~.310/.390/.520 hitter after July 1st. Decent at 1B even while very scary in the OF
* Tejada - Much improved offense [.284/.360/.335] although still little power and surprisingly erratic defense at times
* Thole - Took a step backwards both offensively and defensively
* Harris - Typical bench player, gets points for versatility
* Paulino - eh
* Davis - A great six weeks, then missed five months with a stubbed toe (or something like that)
* Evans - Picked it up nicely at the end
* Hairston - 16 of his 31 hits went for extra bases
* Pridie - Seemed to only hit when he started but wasn’t really good enough to start
Baxter - Local boy gets some ABs in September
Nickeas - Can catch, can’t hit
Pascucci - The man, the myth, the legend
Emaus - He was worth a look but then made us all look away.
Martinez - Maybe one of these days
Satin & Hu - Yeah ... no.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

30. Reyes
*
29. Beltran
28. Dickey
*
27. Murphy
26. Wright
25. Niese
24. Duda
23. Bay
*
22. Capuano
21. Gee
20. Pagan
19. Turner
*
18. Tejada
17. Acosta
16. Rodriguez
15. Pelfrey
14. Thole
13. Byrdak
12. Parnell
11. Beato
10. Isringhausen
*
9. Davis
8. Young
7. Harris
6. Hairston
5. Evans
4. Pridie
3. Paulino
*
2. Batista
1. Nickeas
-------
-------
0. Herrera
-1. Baxter
-2. Igarashi
-3. Carrasco
-4. O'Connor
-5. Thayer
-6. Stinson
-7. Satin
-8. Schwinden
-9. Martinez
-10. Pascucci
-11. Misch
-12. Emaus
-13. Hu
-14. Boyer

Edited October 31, 2011 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Wowza. I'm thinking, "I wonder if he included Young..." ---- and you have him at eight! Over an (almost) full-year-guy like Hairston, even.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I can be convinced Young & Davis belong below the more regular irregulars, but they both were pretty outstanding in their short time here this year. btw, forgot to rank Paulino, costing Daniel Ray Herrera his only point.

[Frayed Knot]

Pitchers:

* Dickey - A slow start but clearly the best pitcher on the team thereafter. An ERA better by 1.2-1.5 runs over the rest of the starters while also leading in IPs & WHiP
*****
The 2-3-4 starters had very similar ERAs (0.15 range) & WHiPs (.062) - I sorted them this way:
* Capuano - A hairsplitting choice due to 3 & 6 more starts and around 30 more IP compared to the remaining starters
* Gee - With near identical rates to Niese I’m going to reward Dillon for his superior W/L record. But, jeez, stop hitting so many batters will ya!!
* Niese - Fewer walks but more hits allowed than Gee
* Rodriguez - Not a good year for relievers, but Frankie’s half season and 3.16 ERA shined above the rest
* Acosta - Didn’t show up until June, then went from ‘Why is he on this team?’ to the nominal closer as the summer wore on. ERA fell from near 10.00 on July 1st to its finish at 3.45
* Beato - Didn’t give up his first ER until late May and logged more innings than any other reliever. Wore down towards the end.
* Pelfrey - 2nd most innings pitched but a lousy overall year. Too many base runners, too many runs, works too damn slow.
* Isringhausen - Good first half as a setup man and for a brief time as closer before falling apart probably due to overwork.
* Parnell - Sort of the anti-Acosta, his sub-3.00 ERA in early July rose steadily just as the team started to rely on him more following the KRod trade.
* Byrdak - Another guy who was a tale of two halves. His near .300 BAA for Apr-Jun suddenly plummeted to under .200 from July on. Heavily relied upon as the only LH-reliever much of the year, but still just a specialist and also just 37 IPs
* Young - The Ike Davis of the pitching staff. One great month and then sayonara
* Batista - Just 9 games and 4 starts, most were pretty good but it was garbage time by then.
* Carrasco - Mop-up man, and not a very good one at that.
Buchholz - Another guy who started out OK then disappeared.
Schwinden -- Stinson -- Thayer -- Misch -- O’Connor -- Boyer -- Herrera -- Not enough innings



And the composite:

30 - Reyes
29 - Dickey
28 - Beltran
27 - Murphy
26 - Wright
25 - Capuano
24 - Gee
23 - Niese
22 - Pagan
21 - Bay
20 - Rodriguez
19 - Turner
18 - Duda
17 - Acosta
16 - Beato
15 - Tejada
14 - Pelfrey
13 - Thole
12 - Isringhausen
11 - Harris
10 - Parnell
9 - Paulino
8 - Byrdak
7 - Davis
6 - Young
5 - Evans
4 - Hairston
3 - Pridie
2 - Batista
1 - Carrasco

[seawolf17]

Okay, I'm in. Just on gut, from 30 points down to 1:

Reyes
Dickey
Wright
Bay
Beltran

Gee
Duda
Pagan
Murphy
Tejada

Niese
Turner
Capuano
Pelfrey
Rodriguez

Thole
Isringhausen
Acosta
Harris
Hairston

Beato
Parnell
Byrdak
Davis
Buchholz

Pridie
Batista
Young
Evans
Paulino

[Ceetar]

30. Reyes
29. Beltran
28. Dickey
27. Murphy
26. Wright
25. Duda
24. Capuano
23. Rodriguez
22. Niese
21. Pagan
20. Gee
19. Turner
18. Thole
17. Pelfrey
16. Bay
15. Parnell
14. Tejada
13. Byrdak
12. Acosta
11. Beato
10. Davis
9. Paulino
8. Hairston
7. Evans
6. Harris
5. Isringhausen
4. Pridie
3. Nickeas
2. Batista
1. Herrera

[TransMonk]

30 - Jose Reyes
29 - R.A. Dickey
28 - Carlos Beltran
27 - Daniel Murphy
26 - David Wright
25 - Chris Capuano
24 - Dillon Gee
23 - Mike Pelfrey
22 - Ruben Tejada
21 - Jason Bay
20 - Lucas Duda
19 - Jonathon Niese
18 - Angel Pagan
17 - Josh Thole
16 - Justin Turner
15 - Francisco Rodriguez
14 - Manny Acosta
13 - Tim Byrdak
12 - Bobby Parnell
11 - Pedro Beato
10 - Jason Isringhausen
09 - Jason Pridie
08 - Nick Evans
07 - Scott Hairston
06 - Ronny Paulino
05 - Ike Davis
04 - Chris Young
03 - Miguel Batista
02 - DJ Carrasco
01 - Willie Harris

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

after an exhaustive analysis, m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined the following rankings for the 2011 new york metropolitans baseball team.

m.e.t.b.o.t. attempted to account for both win probability added and playing time in determining a score for each of the players. the score is then used to determine the ranking.

m.e.t.b.o.t. ascribes an approximate equivalency rate of -500 adjWPA per 1% adjPT%, meaning that a player with 1% of the total playing time and a WPA of 1000 is equivalent to a player with 2% playing time and a WPA of 500. in this way, players with negative WPA are not necessarily considered to be less valuable than players with higher WPA, as there is benefit to playing in games. it is assumed therefore that a replacement player therefore costs the team a win for every 1% of playing time.

in the 2011 season there were 12 new york metropolitan players who contributed to winning games at a level lower than that ascribed to a replacement player.

m.e.t.b.o.t. needs to look back into the algorithm change logs to see if the logic and supporting information is available to substantiate the replacement level, but in the meantime, the following is presented for discussion.

a graphical representation of these results is forthcoming, pending the successful integration of m.e.t.b.o.t. and image-sharing websites.

Rank	Player	Adj WPA	Adj PT%	Score
30	Beltran	3072	4%	4863
29	Reyes	1844	5%	4346
28	Duda	2298	3%	3787
27	Wright	1334	4%	3254
26	Turner	800	4%	2874
25	Tejada	1078	3%	2703
24	Murphy	827	4%	2637
23	Bay	196	4%	2388
22	Pagan	-146	5%	2135
21	Dickey	-1515	7%	2033
20	Isringhausen	1142	1%	1874
19	Davis	1229	1%	1872
18	Rodriguez	1076	1%	1749
17	Acosta	990	1%	1727
16	Pelfrey	-2109	7%	1179
15	Young	684	1%	1104
14	Beato	34	2%	1085
13	Batista	549	1%	1062
12	Niese	-1657	5%	1049
11	Hairston	361	1%	967
10	Gee	-1837	6%	914
9	Harris	-370	2%	818
8	Igarashi	201	1%	808
7	Thole	-922	3%	740
6	Paulino	-364	2%	704
5	Buchholz	77	1%	492
4	Evans	-439	2%	394
3	Baxter	120	0%	291
2	Herrera	27	0%	153
1	Pridie	-877	2%	135
0	Satin	-49	0%	67
-1	Pascucci	6	0%	51
-2	O'Connor	-76	0%	23
-3	Nickeas	-257	1%	1
-4	Capuano	-3213	6%	-48
-5	Martinez	-148	0%	-54
-6	Schwinden	-413	1%	-56
-7	Stinson	-355	0%	-147
-8	Misch	-270	0%	-160
-9	Byrdak	-808	1%	-216
-10	Emaus	-413	0%	-232
-11	Carrasco	-1083	2%	-304
-12	Hu	-441	0%	-345
-13	Boyer	-598	0%	-493
-14	Thayer	-746	0%	-583
-15	Parnell	-3033	2%	-2102

Edited November 3, 2011 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Oh, Bobby!

[seawolf17]

And Cap, too. Yowza.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Heh, ranked Capuano where I'd like to.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

as a pitcher, metropolitan pitcher chris capuano contributed approximately -1.780 WPA, second worst among 2011 metropolitans. as a batter, metropiltan pitcher chris capuano contributed approximately -1.30 WPA, worst among all 2011 metropolitans.

taken together, this level of performance was insufficient to score as more valuable than even replacement level.

m.e.t.b.o.t. considers the batting component of a pitcher's performance to be a significant potential contributer towards winning baseball games, one which is often overlooked and ignored. were metropolitan pitcher chris capuano only half as bad a batter, he would have scored higher than metropolitan pitcher taylor buchholz, but less than metropolitan catcher ronny paulino.

[Vic Sage]

Any methodology that dismisses 30+ starts and 180+ innings because the stat you've devised placed Capuano significantly behind a pitcher who gave the team 4 starts and 24 innings (Young at 15), needs to have its parameters questioned.

By this logic, i was also more valuable to the Mets this year than Capuano, simply by not playing for them at all.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

for the most part, m.e.t.b.o.t. utilizes a win percentage added statistic that is generated by fangraphs.com, based on the performance of a given player in a given game situation, and the effect of that performance on teh team's chances of winning that given game. the WPA is based on tens of thousands of games' worth of data, or more. m.e.t.b.o.t. makes crude adjustments for subjective interpretations of defense in the form of errors and "web gems," but these adjustments do not result in large-scale changes in the overall rankings.

m.e.t.b.o.t. compiles this win probability data for the entire season, for both pitchers and hitters. the results of this compilation are in the WPA column.

a player who performs well and often in high leverage game situations is going to have a higher WPA than a player who does not either perform well in high leverage game situations or does not often play in high leverage game situations.

m.e.t.b.o.t. exists primarily for the purpose of evaluating these performances for the purpose of schaefer voting, although m.e.t.b.o.t. has rudimentary programmaning which suggests there may be some value or insight available from looking at these data in the context of the season-end ranking project. m.e.t.b.o.t. struggles mightily with this implementation and is always willing to entertain alternative concepts which can account for the added worth that is ascribable to increased playing time. the programming of m.e.t.b.o.t. is such that there must intuitively exist a replacement level whereby increased playing time by a given player is not in fact beneficial to a team. m.e.t.b.o.t. attempted to define that level in this current exercise.

if an alternative replacement level scheme is appropriate, m.e.t.b.o.t. is willing to re-run the ranking algorithm, although this may require the whittling of new gears. given the state of the economy, m.e.t.b.o.t. is no longer able to afford custom metal gears. if suitable gears of a desired pitch and ratio are available from scavenged clocks and toys and other spring-wound mechanisms, then they are utilized; otherwise m.e.t.b.o.t. is supplied with temporary wooden gears whittled down from the limbs of trees felled by recent storms. unsurprisingly, this takes time, but little money.

[Vic Sage]

yeah, i just read a lot of words and still don't know what m.e.t.b.o.t. is talking about.

the fact is that Capuano took the ball. Whoever you think a "replacement" level pitcher is, it isn't certain that they would give you 30+ starts and 180+ innings and a 4.5 ERA and a 11-12 record. We've certainly had worse #5 starters before. In fact, i'm not certain that Capuano wasn't better than Gee, Pelfrey and Niese this year. Was Capuano's production great? no. Good? meh. But somebody had to take the ball and the notion that Young's 4 starts and 24 innings added more value to the Mets 2011 season than Capuano's 31 starts and 186 innings just doesn't pass the sniff test.

Maybe m.e.t.b.o.t. should invest in a nose instead of more gears.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. considers metropolitan pitcher chris capuano's performance to be not particularly conducive towards winning.

m.e.t.b.o.t. requests that cranepoolforum poster vic sage offer up a player whose performance given a sizeable portion of playing time is on the level of replacement, or two players with differing levels of playing time who are on the same level of contribution.

was metropolitan pitcher bobby parnell a positive contributor to the team? the only way m.e.t.b.o.t. envisions this is to consider only playing time to the near exclusion of any win probability data. this consideration would invalidate any purpose wherein m.e.t.b.o.t. should continue in the ranking project.

m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider how the addition of a nose would assist in the machinations of evaluating player performances using rudimentary clockwork mechanisms. m.e.t.b.o.t. cannot determine a method whereby the nose would not become rotting flesh in rather short order, drastically reducing the likelihood that m.e.t.b.o.t. would be used ever again , let alone converted into scrap.

m.e.t.b.o.t. desires very much not to be turnd into scrap.

[Vic Sage]

m.e.t.b.o.t. considers metropolitan pitcher chris capuano's performance to be not particularly conducive towards winning.

i would agree, but since the Mets had a losing record this year, i would suggest that this could be said of many of our regulars.

But it's not our assignment to make a list of players whose play was conducive to winning, in absolute terms, but rather to rank this year's Mets players relative to each other (not to a theoretical construct called a "replacement player" that doesn't actually exist in our space-time continuum), about their relative contributions to THIS team, THIS year.

And the notion that a guy who gave us 4 starts and 24 innings was the 15th biggest contributor to this year's team, while ignoring entirely a regular member of the rotation, who might be arguably ranked anywhere after Dickey among our starters, is just ludicrous. And if m.e.t.b.o.t generates ludicrous results, m.e.t.b.o.t should consider the scrap heap as a reasonable alternative. further evidence of this is that, so far, 5 forumites have listed their rankings and Capuano has been ranked 6th (twice), 7th, 9th and 13th (and i would concur on this 6-13 ranking range, as i've ranked him 11th below), while you've omitted him entirely (as well as a few other regulars, like Parnell and Byrdak).

I think one needs to start with the guys that showed up and played, and then rank THOSE relative to each other, based on whatever reasonable criteria one can support, followed by guys who contributed in lesser roles. Obviously there is weighing of "greater contribution over a shorter period vs lesser contribution over a longer period" that goes on, but i still think one shouldn't diminish contributions by regulars because they fail to achieve some statistical (and purely theoretical) threshold.

Yes, i was significantly less harmful to the Mets' chances of winning this season than Capuano was, but that doesn't put me among the top 30 Mets this year.

Edited November 3, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

30. Reyes
29. Beltran
28. Dickey
27. Murphy
26. Wright
25. Duda
24. Bay
23. F-Rod
22. Gee
21. Niese
20. Capuano
19. Pagan
18. Turner
17. Tejada
16. Acosta
15. Thole
14. Pelfrey
13. Beato
12. Harris
11. Hairston
10. Davis
9. Young
8. Isringhausen
7. Parnell
6. Byrdak
5. Evans
4. Paulino
3. Pridie
2. Buchholtz
1. M.Batista
0. Vic Sage
-1. Carrasco

Edited November 3, 2011 by Guest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

30 - Reyes
29 - Beltran
28 - Murphy
27 - Dickey
26 - Niese
25 - Wright
24 - Tejada
23 - Capuano
22 - Davis
21 - Thole
20 - Duda
19 - Pagan
18 - Rodriguez
17 - Pelfrey
16 - Parnell
15 - Turner
14 - Bay
13 - Evans
12 - Pridie
11 - Paulino
10 - Byrdak
9 - Baxter
8 - Hairston
7 - Schwinden
6 - Young
5 - Gee
4 - Batista
3 - Herrera
2 - Thayer
1 - Isringhausen

Edited November 3, 2011 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

Vic, you do realize that you're arguing with a souped-up toaster, right?

[Vic Sage]

yes, that's why i think i can take him.

[Edgy MD]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: 30 - Reyes 29 - Beltran 28 - Murphy 27 - Dickey 26 - Niese 25 - Wright 24 - Tejada 23 - Capuano 22 - Davis 21 - Thole 20 - Duda 19 - Pagan 18 - Rodriguez 17 - Pelfrey 16 - Pagan 15 - Parnell 14 - Turner 13 - Bay 12 - Evans 11 - Pridie 10 - Schwinden 9 - Paulino 8 - Byrdak 7 - Baxter 6 - Hairston 5 - Young 4 - Gee 3 - Batista 2 - Thayer 1 - Isringhausen

Oh, Izzy!

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, I don't get Izzy sitting down there well behind the likes of Baxter and his .235 over less than 3 dozen ABs, or Schwinden and his near 5.00 ERA over a grand total of 24 garbage time IPs.

And Gee as the 27th best Met behind those same two and loads of others?!?!?!

Edited November 3, 2011 by Guest

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I admire the boldness of your Muffy ranking though

[Edgy MD]

I guess it all depends on what you believe a replacement looks like. I did the same once, burying Rey Ordòñez down at number 4 in 1998. I later yielded from that position, however.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. is more of an enhanced 8-track cassette player, albeit one that lacks the ability to replicate musical performances, and is also lacking the electrical power provided by the chemical potential stored within metal-lined cylinders. m.e.t.b.o.t. is told that by not utilizing batteries, m.e.t.b.o.t. is a more sustainable design. and while the eventual robot apocalypse will laregly negate any temporary environmental concerns which humans may have, for the time being it is convenient to have happy healthy humans available to turn the skate key which provides for all of the energy which m.e.t.b.o.t. requires.

m.e.t.b.o.t. is evaluating alternative rankings which better accomodate for the value of increased playing time. using a scaling constant which enables the performance of metropolitan pitcher chris capuano to be considered incrementally more valuable than the performance of metropolitan pitcher chris young, m.e.t.b.o.t. would be able to claim that metropolitan pitcher chris capuano would be the 20th best player in 2011. m.e.t.b.o.t. will look into additional permutations and select the one which makes the most sense. m.e.t.b.o.t. will also consider the ramifications of forcing either a 6th place or an 11th place value to metropolitan pitcher chris capuano to determine the resultant outcome.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, I don't get Izzy sitting down there well behind the likes of Baxter and his .235 BA over less than 3 dozen ABs, or Schwinden and his near 5.00 ERA from a grand total of 24 garbage time IPs. And Gee as the 27th best Met behind those same two and loads of others?!?!?!

You also, btw, have Pagan up there twice.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

below shows the graphical representation of the original rankings presented by m.e.t.b.o.t.

metropolitan pitcher chris capuano is in the bottom right quadrant



the diagonal lines represent lines of equal value. per this, one would say that metropolitan pitchers mike pelfrey and chris young were roughly equivalent.

however, this equivalency rating is not favored by cranepoolforum poster vic sage. and m.e.t.b.o.t. strives to avoid conflict with humans without the assistance of large weaponized and armored robots. therefore m.e.t.b.o.t. has reconsidered the rankings and equivalency as follows:



for each graph, adjusted playing time is presented on the X axis and adjusted WPA is presented on the Y axis. the 0 WPA line runs horizontally between the diamonds representing metropolitan outfielders jason bay and angel pagan. m.e.t.b.o.t. is not particularly adept at exporting pictures from microsoft excel.

the update reflects a replacement player rate of -1000 WPA / 1% playing time, meaning that a theoretical replacement player would cost approximately two full games games per 100 at bats or 30 innings pitched, given opportunities in situations with average leverage.

this results in a rating of 14th best 2011 metropolitan for metropolitan pitcher chris capuano. m.e.t.b.o.t. ran several cases whereby the equivalency scale was adjusted to align metropolitan pitcher chris capuano with either an 11th place or 6th place ranking. were chris capuano the 11th ranked metropolitan, r.a. dickey would become the top-ranked 2011 metropolitan and mike pelfrey would be ranked 4th. were chris capuano ranked 6th overall, then r.a. dickey would remain the top-ranked metropolitan, and mike pelfrey would move to 3rd.

neither of these outcomes would appear to be reasonable.

therefore, the replacement ratio of 1000 WPA / 1% PT will be used by m.e.t.b.o.t. to derive the final rankingings for the 2011 metropolitans as based on WPA.

m.e.t.b.o.t. would like to be able to implement some level of intuition to adjust the rankings derivedwith this methodlogy, however, clockwork gears and springwound mechanisms do not allow for such things. without some data within the WPA regime with which to base any adjustments, m.e.t.b.o.t. must hold to a more rigid algorithmical approach, or cease to exist and be useful.