Worst Mets pitching staff ever?

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

For a good part of the season. the durability of the starting stuff, some nice runs by Gee and Niese, and Dickey's general competence fooled me into thinking that the 2011 pitching staff was not SO bad. Then one night (can't remember exactly when, but was probably during a Pelfrey start), I finally woke up and said to myself - "Wow, these guys really suck! They might be the worst Mets staff ever. I should look that up" Then, I fell back asleep and didn't give it another thought until last night, when I finally decided to see how they stacked up historically.

Seaver's arrival in 1967 pushed the Mets team ERA+ above 90 for the first time in team history. In 1968, ERA+ crossed 100 and stayed above that threshold until his departure in 1977. The next 33 seasons had some great staffs and some shi**y staffs, but for the most part, the franchise pitched well relative to the rest of the league, with 20 ERA+ seasons >100 and 13 < 100. But they never dipped below 90 (which they hit on the number in 1978) until 2011. They currently stand at 88.

There are many ways to judge a pitching staff, and ERA+ is likely not the best of 'em, but this staff sure has been terrible, and may very well be the worst we have seen since #41 threw his first pitch.

[Guest attgig]

to throw some other stats out there....
in terms of WAR, we're only better than the Astros, Reds, Pirates, and O's this year, meaning we're the 5th worst pitching staff in the league.

in terms of xFIP (fielding independant pitching), we're at 4.04 (think of ERA numbers). our actual ERA is 4.21 so our defense hasn't really helped out pitching out this year.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

Aside from Gee, Dickey and Niese, I don't know if there are any others on the current major league staff that I really want to see two years from now.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Great work. It kinda snuck up on me how bad this staff was but I guess it was that stretch in late July where we couldn't keep Florida or Washington off the board. They were also exposed a bit when we lost Muffy, of all people.

[metirish]

Without looking up the numbers like 86(great work) I would say in my time watching the Mets the staffs of years 2001/02 and 03 were not so good?

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Great work. It kinda snuck up on me how bad this staff was but I guess it was that stretch in late July where we couldn't keep Florida or Washington off the board. They were also exposed a bit when we lost Muffy, of all people.

The strange part is there's no outright weak link --- like those years in the aughts when we spent the whole season looking for a number five starter. This year there's nobody in the rotation that won't be a big league pitcher next year --- and maybe only Igarashi among the top seven releivers. It's just that there's a whole lot of fair to middlin'.

On the excellent-good-average-fair-poor continuum, there's a massive cluster around fair. I'm trying to think of what that cluster thing means regarding next year. Good news? Bad news? I don't know. Would you rather have two averages and three fairs, or two goods and three poors? Which is easier to build on?

[ashie62]

Makes me pine for the 1979 Starting Pitching Staff

Koosman
Swan
Espinosa R.I.P
Zachry
Bruhart

Spend the money on pitching Sandy Tejada SS Turner 2B

[Edgy MD]

You've banished Reyes again?

That's what I'm talking about, Willis.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Great work. It kinda snuck up on me how bad this staff was but I guess it was that stretch in late July where we couldn't keep Florida or Washington off the board. They were also exposed a bit when we lost Muffy, of all people. The strange part is there's no outright weak link --- like those years in the aughts when we spent the whole season looking for a number five starter. This year there's nobody in the rotation that won't be a big league pitcher next year --- and maybe only Igarashi among the top seven releivers. It's just that there's a whole lot of fair to middlin'. On the excellent-good-average-fair-poor continuum, there's a massive cluster around fair.

In his book Baseball is a Funny Game, Joe Garragiola described Cubs pitcher Bob Rush in a way that might be appropriate. He said Rush was "just good enough to lose with".

Later

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: On the excellent-good-average-fair-poor continuum, there's a massive cluster around fair. I'm trying to think of what that cluster thing means regarding next year. Good news? Bad news? I don't know. Would you rather have two averages and three fairs, or two goods and three poors? Which is easier to build on?

This is why it surprises me that this Mets rotation could be that bad. Because no one's bad. League Average ERA is 3.8. Dickey's good (3.35 ERA) for one. The other four guys are into the 'fair' ERA range, around 4.4-4.5 But that's only half a run off the league average. What's that, one standard deviation?

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

4 guys at 4.5 might work at Yankee Stadium, but is abysmal at Citi Field.

[Edgy MD]

Well, nobody's saying it's working. The idea is that the weak links aren't obvious, making for very challenging choices this off-season.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

It is tough. For example, I don't have a whole lot of faith that either Gee or Pelfrey improve much, even though both of them absolutely have to. But for totally different reasons: Gee because he's already up against the limits of his ability to be good and Pelf because he can hardly get there and stay there.

Niese & Dickey is a good start, if they can stay healthy.

Don't much like Capuano.

[Ceetar]

86-Dreamer wrote: 4 guys at 4.5 might work at Yankee Stadium, but is abysmal at Citi Field.

Yankee Stadium not factored into the 3.8 ERA league average.

But with Gee and Pelfrey not being huge strikeout guys, more balls in play in a bigger outfield, = more ER.

Also, team ERA is 4.2, but runs created per game is 4.8 Still not good, but seems like it should've gotten the job done a little better.

I think the 4.15 Starter ERA is less the problem than the 4.36 Reliever ERA. And I wonder how much of those earned runs were due to the relievers.

As for how to improve a mostly fair/average staff? Not that you can bank on this yet, but swapping even a reduced Santana for Capuano probably pushes the Mets to better than league average. I think you can hope for improvement for Niese, because it seems like he's actually pretty damn good, and I think he was pitching hurt near the end. I think Pelfrey improves somewhat over this year, but not appreciably and more due to luck of fielding and home runs. If Gee's still in the rotation, which seems likely, I just don't know. He's got a lot of pitches, even if none of them are top flight talent. I could see him taking a step forward, learning to mix and match and setup and eliminating some of the games where he just couldn't execute those pitches. I could also see him not improving and just getting shelled.


overall though, I just don't think this team is the worst Mets pitching staff ever. nor is ERA+ the way to measure them against each other because it penalizes this Mets team for the Phillies staff against other Mets teams that maybe didn't have the same competition.

[Edgy MD]

One thing to keep in mind for everybody on the staff is that the defense has been a turd (Reyes and Bay and Tejada being modest exceptions), and with a low-strikeout staff and a huge ballpark, the gloves come into play more than usual.

A more solid defense and that makes a lot of pitchers look better, but it'd take a smarter man than me to figure out how to do that without bolluxing up the offense. I think replacing Angel Pagan with that centerfielder we had last year would be a good start.

My first thought when I saw this thread is that ceetar is going to get his wish with regards to Dan Warthan.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: One thing to keep in mind for everybody on the staff is that the defense has been a turd (Reyes and Bay and Tejada being modest exceptions), and with a low-strikeout staff and a huge ballpark, the gloves come into play more than usual. A more solid defense and that makes a lot of pitchers look better, but it'd take a smarter man than me to figure out how to do that without bolluxing up the offense. I think replacing Angel Pagan with that centerfielder we had last year would be a good start. My first thought when I saw this thread is that ceetar is going to get his wish with regards to Dan Warthan.

Carlos Beltran?

Yeah, figuring out Pagan goes a long way, but I'm not sure his range has been affected this year. Seems like it's been more giving up extra bases and singles to doubles and that sorta stuff than turning outs into baserunners. Other than that.. Duda over Beltran/Duda is gonna be a downgrade no matter how well Duda improves. Ike provides a boost, and I think Wright 162 provides a boost, but Murphy is probably a downgrade over Tejada/Turner/etc.


Santana's K rate should help. But maybe the Mets should look to trade for a a better K guy (please no Vazquez, I don't trust that guy) if they don't think they can get Gee's rate up?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Tracky ran down the coaching situation in the Snooze today. Terry wants all 5 guys back but there's high speculation that Chip Hale will go with Bob Melvin in Cali. The A's just gave Melvin a 3-year deal.

If Hale leaves, Backman could replace him. Warthen is the only coach in danger of not being re-hired by mgt.

Mets will likely grant 2013 option year on Terry as reward for good season and to stave off speculation of firing as he manages 2012 year. Possibility too they would extend beyond that.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Tracky ran down the coaching situation in the Snooze today. Terry wants all 5 guys back but there's high speculation that Chip Hale will go with Bob Melvin in Cali. The A's just gave Melvin a 3-year deal. If Hale leaves, Backman could replace him. Warthen is the only coach in danger of not being re-hired by mgt. Mets will likely grant 2013 option year on Terry as reward for good season and to stave off speculation of firing as he manages 2012 year. Possibility too they would extend beyond that.

I thought the extension for Collins was a false rumor? I'm not in favor of extending him yet.

I like Hale, but I don't know what value he adds, besides a good play at the plate rate. I wonder if they didn't replace Warthen because of his familiarity with the staff on a team where the manager and GM weren't. Pelfrey as the 'veteran' of the team lobbied for him, and maybe that was enough?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Capuano is the only starter with a K/9 at 8 or above. Hell, he's the only one above 6.5 besides Niese.

[metsmarathon]

using the total zone defensive metric*, bbref has our defense as costing our pitching staff 80 runs over hte course of the year so far. the second-worst defense, colorado, cost their pitching staff 38 runs.

bbref has our pitching staff as worth 13.7 WAR for the season, 10th in the league. the average pitching staff in the NL is worth 14.3 WAR.

at only one defensive position were the mets above average. can you guess which? the answer might surprise you.

also, can you guess which has been our worst defensive position? the answer there might also be surprising, but less so.

*note - the baseball info solutions defensive runs saved shows very different numbers, but the overall story is much the same. our best defensive positon stays where we probably wouldn't expect it, and our worst defensive postion moves to where we might never suspect, while a few positions move more towards average. overall, they have us at -41 runs, second in the league behind the cubs at -59.

subtracting 80 runs from our pitching staff's 718 runs allowed gives us 638, for a R/G of 4.09. subtracting 41 runs gives us a 4.33 R/G. league average is R/G is 4.16.

were it not for our poor defense, we might have an average pitching staff.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Capuano is the only starter with a K/9 at 8 or above. Hell, he's the only one above 6.5 besides Niese.

Capuano seems to be a feast or famine type guy. Sometimes they can't hit him, and sometimes they smack it. 10% of the hits he gives up are for extra bases, which is 2.1% more than the MLB average. aided by an a 9.5 to 7.7% FB/HR rate so it's not just the defense.

I could see with a year of health under his belt, Capuano being decent. But he's also the most expendable, the biggest injury risk, and probably due a sizable raise.

[Edgy MD]

metsmarathon wrote: at only one defensive position were the mets above average. can you guess which? the answer might surprise you.

I'll guess first base, based mostly on Murphy's contributions.

So my offseason plan is to replace Oberkfell with a better infield coach and replace Pagan with somebody more like Angel Pagan, and try not to worry too much about the pitching --- getting whatever's left of Santana back and letting the younger guys grow. Is that it?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My guess is Bay out in left. Makes the plays however unspectacularly.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: metsmarathon wrote: at only one defensive position were the mets above average. can you guess which? the answer might surprise you. I'll guess first base, based mostly on Murphy's contributions. So my offseason plan is to replace Oberkfell with a better infield coach and replace Pagan with somebody more like Angel Pagan, and try not to worry too much about the pitching --- getting whatever's left of Santana back and letting the younger guys grow. Is that it?

I'm more interested in what Alderson's plan is, after Reyes Month anyway. seemingly a billion different ways he could go with it.

Gooden tweeted he could get used to this coaching thing. I'm not really serious, but how about him for pitching coach?

I hope they invite him to Spring Training at least to work with the pitchers.



best zone rating.. CF? Worst..3B?

[Edgy MD]

So, while we're looking at a wanting staff, it's important to consider that we may not really looking at the worst Mets pitching staff ever at all, but perhaps at the worst Mets defense ever.

Gooden as pitching coach? Maybe five years from now --- as a carrot. I prefer my coaches to be a few more years removed from Celebrity Rehab.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: So, while we're looking at a wanting staff, it's important to consider that we may not really looking at the worst Mets pitching staff ever at all, but perhaps at the worst Mets defense ever. Gooden as pitching coach? Maybe five years from now --- as a carrot. I prefer my coaches to be a few more years removed from Celebrity Rehab.

Yeah that's why I'm not serious, although regular work might be a good thing for him. Still, if he enjoyed that coaching experience, and we've got young guys (and one that throws a curveball pretty well..) that could learn, a week in PSL might go a long way.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This kind of seemed like a season in which Pete Falcone pitched every day.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mets have the 23rd worst ERA in M.L.B. this year � in a pitcher�s ballpark!!!

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/stuffing-the-mets-suggestion-box/

[Edgy MD]

The more I think about this, the more I think this worstness thing isn't the best way to frame this Mets team. They had 149 of their 162 games started by one of five guys. That's meaningful. They didn't really have anybody carrying them at the front end, but didn't collapse at the back end either, leading to a rotation of sadsacks with 7+ ERAs getting three starts on the long road to oblivion. With some semblance of Johan Santana returning in 2012, a small glut of talent reaching AA last year, and the Mets aware of their defense's contributions to the pitching staff's effectiveness, I'm thinking maybe tweaking beats overhauling.

But then I think of what X-factor the new distances are going to throw into the equation, and I have no idea what to do. Johan is something of an X-factor too, I reckon.

[Ceetar]

I think it's important they trade for/sign/steal/clone one "better than Mike Pelfrey" guy. That's my hope anyway. Gee, despite perhaps deserving a spot, serves as #6 depth if Santana doesn't start with no training wheels like they're projecting right now. (or someone gets hurt/traded)