Expectations of Eleven: Johan Santana

[Edgy MD]

Johan Alexander Santana



Pos: SP; BL-TL.

Born: March 13, 1979 in Tovar, Merida, Venezuela. (He'll be 32 in 2011.)

Birth Context Karma: On the day of Santana's birth, the Mets traded Mardie Cornejo to the Detroit Tigers for Ed Glynn. Also on that day, Maurice Bishop successfully executed a coup and took control of Grenada.


Acquired: Traded by the Twins to the Mets for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.

W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	BB-Ref WAR	FG WAR
11	9	.550	2.98	29	29	0	4	2	0	199	179	67	66	16	55	2	144	2	2	2	817	131	1.176	8.1	0.7	2.5	6.5	2.62	4.9 (0.5 on off)	3.5

Number: Heinz.

Wife: Yasmile. Big Lion King fan.


Nickname: He's too good for a nickname.

Namesakes:
I'm not sure. He may be too good for a namesake, too.

Best Day in 2010: Good days are common enough if your name is Johan Santana, and I'd be tempted to single out his contribution to the Phillies sweep, except Captain Freaking Hook didn't leave him in, so I'll go with his next start, a 4-0, four-hit shutout of the Roxx in which he fanned 10 and walked two. This was August 12, and his record at the end of the day was 10-5. He'd win one game the rest of the way and get only four more starts in before ending his season.

Last Word: Johan's recently started playing catch, and the Mets are loathe to announce a target date for his return, though they surely have one. He's likely due after the All-Star break, and as with Billy Wagner in 2009, the Mets will have, as part of their goal, to make that return date matter. Hopefully that time will allow him to put his legal problems behind him as well.

What do you expect of Johan Santana in 2011?

[Fman99]

Comes back in the dog days of August and runs the fucking table. 15 starts, 11-2 record, 2.5-ish ERA and pitches a complete game shutout to clinch a playoff spot for the Metsies.

[Ceetar]

Fman99 wrote: Comes back in the dog days of August and runs the fucking table. 15 starts, 11-2 record, 2.5-ish ERA and pitches a complete game shutout to clinch a playoff spot for the Metsies.

That's what I'm talking about.

btw, that CG shutout will be on 9/25, Sunday Night Baseball, against the Phillies, called by Bobby Valentine.

I think it'll be more like 7-3, 3.7 ERA, but with lots more run support than he's used to. He'll finish strongly enough that there will be no question marks attached to his name in 2012.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Next great anchor contract.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Next great anchor contract.

Next? I guess that he's done as a great pitcher. Loses another mile or two per hour off his fastball (he lost about three by the middle of his first year as a Met) -- and suddenly, his changeup is very hittable ... no longer dominant. Was so good as a Twinkie, that even at 90 or 80% of what he was at his peak, he was still one of the NL's best pitchers over the last three years.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Next great anchor contract.

Like, it guarantees that his kids will be citizens/vouchsafed bad-idea contracts of their very own?

I'll go with a Coney post-shoulder surgery special, inflation-adjusted:

12 GS
79 IP
7-2 record
2.82 ERA/3.24 FIP
1.17 WHIP
76 K
26 BB
7 HR allowed

[Benjamin Grimm]

15 starts. 6-4, 3.75 ERA.

[TransMonk]

10 starts, 4-2, 3.78 ERA, 67 K, 29 BB

[metirish]

12 starts , 8 wins against 1 loss for the lefty , sports a fine 2.85 ERA , 2 million in go away money paid to that woman.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Next great anchor contract. Next? I guess that he's done as a great pitcher. Loses another mile or two per hour off his fastball (he lost about three by the middle of his first year as a Met) -- and suddenly, his changeup is very hittable ... no longer dominant. Was so good as a Twinkie, that even at 90 or 80% of what he was at his peak, he was still one of the NL's best pitchers over the last three years.

Yeah, next: He's just not commonly referred to as such today as shown here and elsewhere, much of what we read seems to assume he'll go back to being Johan Santana, and on schedule, upon his return.

I don't have any expectations of any pitchers coming off shoulder surgery. If he wins 5 games this year I'll be mildly surprised.

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: 12 starts , 8 wins against 1 loss for the lefty , sports a fine 2.85 ERA , 2 million in go away money paid to that woman.

Why is he paying that woman? Last I heard that was over it except for the _counter_ suit.

[TransMonk]

I expect we have seen the last of a sub-3-ERA Johan.

[smg58]

Our starting rotation is so rock solid in July that he comes in as a reliever, and after a few outings to get warm takes over as the Mets closer. His effectiveness, plus the money he saves the Mets by not having to pay Frankie $17M next year, makes him worth his salary.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Next great anchor contract. Next? I guess that he's done as a great pitcher. Loses another mile or two per hour off his fastball (he lost about three by the middle of his first year as a Met) -- and suddenly, his changeup is very hittable ... no longer dominant. Was so good as a Twinkie, that even at 90 or 80% of what he was at his peak, he was still one of the NL's best pitchers over the last three years. Yeah, next: He's just not commonly referred to as such today as shown here and elsewhere, much of what we read seems to assume he'll go back to being Johan Santana, and on schedule, upon his return. I don't have any expectations of any pitchers coming off shoulder surgery. If he wins 5 games this year I'll be mildly surprised.

We're on the same page. I'd probably change "next" to "now". Three straight season ending surgeries. He'll be 32 next month. Johan should go bionic. Is that still $6M? He can afford to.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

smg58 wrote: Our starting rotation is so rock solid in July that he comes in as a reliever, and after a few outings to get warm takes over as the Mets closer. His effectiveness, plus the money he saves the Mets by not having to pay Frankie $17M next year, makes him worth his salary.

Ah, yes. The Juan Smoltz.

[Edgy MD]

That's not 100% crazy. It's 53% crazy, but I can live with that.

[Lefty Specialist]

TransMonk wrote: 10 starts, 4-2, 3.78 ERA, 67 K, 29 BB

This. He'll come back later than advertised and be okay but not great. He'll pitch under no pressure as the month of September will be Tryout Camp for the Metsies anyway. He'll be ready to bear down in '12.

[G-Fafif]

He will be all but promised to us for late May, then mid-June, then the All-Star Break and we'll see him sometime In August, at which point it will be all about 2012.

Or he'll be Johan and blow everybody away by showing up before Memorial Day and kicking ASS, bro.

[Edgy MD]

If Johan pitches for the Mets in May, I'll cover spring training in a Speedo.

There, I said it.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: If Johan pitches for the Mets in May, I'll cover spring training in a Speedo. There, I said it.

Better fully qualify that. I think there's a somewhat larger chance that Johan will in fact pitch for the (Binghamton or St. Lucie) Mets in May.

[Edgy MD]

2-3, 3.86. Put on a sort leash so it's hard to earn a whole lot of decisions in his 8-10 starts.

[ashie62]

6-3 100 IP 3.22 WHIP 1.28

[metirish]

"@KBurkhardtSNY: Santana heading back to NYC for doctor visit, and it is smelling like we won't see him this year. Details coming 630p on pre-game, SNY."

"@AdamRubinESPN: Call it a setback: Johan Santana will see doctors at Hospital for Special Surgery on Thursday ... Will not pitch in minors."

[metirish]

"@AdamRubinESPN: And if you want to know the difficulty facing Sandy Alderson, Johan Santana will be owed $30 million in 2013, including 2014 buyout. #mets"

[TransMonk]

The difficulty with what, Adam?

Peeps need to learn how to tweet! Damn.

[Gwreck]

By that point, the Mets had better be owned by some unburdened-by-Picard Wilpons or by Einhorn. Either way, they pay the $30 million. It's not a "difficulty" unless we have cheapskate ownership.

[TransMonk]

Gwreck wrote: By that point, the Mets had better be owned by some unburdened-by-Picard Wilpons or by Einhorn. Either way, they pay the $30 million. It's not a "difficulty" unless we have cheapskate ownership.

Yup. My thoughts exactly.

Furthermore, if he's not ready than shut-him-the-fuck-down. 100% in 2012 is better than 65% in a [crossout]meaningless[/crossout] non-contending 2011.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: Gwreck wrote: By that point, the Mets had better be owned by some unburdened-by-Picard Wilpons or by Einhorn. Either way, they pay the $30 million. It's not a "difficulty" unless we have cheapskate ownership. Yup. My thoughts exactly. Furthermore, if he's not ready than shut-him-the-fuck-down. 100% in 2012 is better than 65% in a [crossout]meaningless[/crossout] non-contending 2011.

yes, but 90% confidence he'll be ready to go in 2012 by pitching in September is better than 50% confident and having to buy an extra pitcher this offseason.

There is zero indication that shutting him down is the right answer. rehabbing an injury is not done via rest.

[ashie62]

Ceetar wrote: TransMonk wrote: Gwreck wrote: By that point, the Mets had better be owned by some unburdened-by-Picard Wilpons or by Einhorn. Either way, they pay the $30 million. It's not a "difficulty" unless we have cheapskate ownership. Yup. My thoughts exactly. Furthermore, if he's not ready than shut-him-the-fuck-down. 100% in 2012 is better than 65% in a [crossout]meaningless[/crossout] non-contending 2011. yes, but 90% confidence he'll be ready to go in 2012 by pitching in September is better than 50% confident and having to buy an extra pitcher this offseason. There is zero indication that shutting him down is the right answer. rehabbing an injury is not done via rest.

Why do you use so many unsubstantiated absolutes like "The is zero indication that shutting him down is the right answer.? You don't know.....but again..you seem to know I guess.

[Ceetar]

Ashie62 wrote: Ceetar wrote: TransMonk wrote: Gwreck wrote: By that point, the Mets had better be owned by some unburdened-by-Picard Wilpons or by Einhorn. Either way, they pay the $30 million. It's not a "difficulty" unless we have cheapskate ownership. Yup. My thoughts exactly. Furthermore, if he's not ready than shut-him-the-fuck-down. 100% in 2012 is better than 65% in a [crossout]meaningless[/crossout] non-contending 2011. yes, but 90% confidence he'll be ready to go in 2012 by pitching in September is better than 50% confident and having to buy an extra pitcher this offseason. There is zero indication that shutting him down is the right answer. rehabbing an injury is not done via rest. Why do you use so many unsubstantiated absolutes like "The is zero indication that shutting him down is the right answer.? You don't know.....but again..you seem to know I guess.

the same reason you use absolutes like "The Mets are done"

no, seriously, since when does sitting on your ass get you anywhere? When you have knee surgery, do they tell you to sit around for six months until it's completely healed and then try to walk?