Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

[Edgy MD]

Daniel Thomas Murphy



Pos: 1B, 3b, 2B, LF; TR.

Born: April 1, 1985 in Jacksonville, Florida. (He'll be age 25 in 2011.) On that day, the Mets were preparing to break camp with two new lineup members --- future ringbearers Gary Carter and Howard Johnson. The number one song was "One More Night" by Phil Collins. (It was a good year for music, but you certainly couldn't tell by the number one songs that year.)

Acquired: Drafted by the Mets in the 13th round of the 2006 amateur draft and signed June 9, 2006.

Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos
St.�Lucie	FLOR (A+)	3	13	11	2	8	1	0	1	6	0	0	2	0	.727	.769	1.091	1.860	12	0	0	0	0	0	1b
Buffalo	IL (AAA)	8	35	34	4	10	3	0	1	8	1	0	1	2	.294	.314	.471	.785	16	2	0	0	0	0	1b, 2b
Total	All	11	48	45	6	18	4	0	2	14	1	0	3	2	.400	.438	.622	1.060	28	2	0	0	0	0

Wife: None I can find.

Nickname: "Muffy" --- at least until consensus builds around something else.

Namesakes:



Best Day in 2010: Good days were hard to by from in 2010 for Daniel Murphy. He started camp with a job, but with the disrespect of his manager and the organization's best power prospect hot on his tail. On March 30, he hurt his knee in a spring training rundown. While he was out, the prospect booted the journeyman fill-in to the curb and took his job. He began training in earnest for new position while he rehabbed his knee, and on June 2, while playing second base, he got his season wiped out by a takeout slide. Ugh. Anyyutz, the guy never stopped hitting, ripping the ball to shreds in his 13 games last summer in the minors. Later joining the Aguilas Cibaenas, his perfomrance was a sensation, slashing in at .320 / .395 / .515 // .910 over 28 games and 116 plate appearances. Perhaps his best night was this 4-5 beatdown of Licey, in which is teammates weren't as awesome as he was, and so didn't turn his prowess into victory.

Last Word: The second base job competion seems to have him at or near the top of the favorites' list, and Luis Castillo looking more like a potential releasee every day, but he's one boot away from vicious CitiField boos. On the other hand, Nick Cafard of The Boston Globe shared this back at the end of November.

The second base experiment with Murphy is a work-in-progress but �heading in the right direction,�� according to a scout who spent a lot of time watching Murphy in the Dominican the past two weeks. �He�s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,�� said the scout, �but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion [from 1B/OF] for them at a position they need help at.��

What do you expect of Daniel Murphy in 2011?

[Ceetar]

I expect him to get the job. While I think Castillo will put up an admirable showing, his game will never 'wow' Collins, and he won't look that much better than Murphy, who has that growth potential.

I think Murphy looks a little tentative at second through April but settles in, works hard, plays hard and in the end we say he played a good second.

I expect him to hit around .280/.330/.450 with 19 HR, 92 RBI and only a shade more Ks than BBs.

about 1.8 WAR.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Starter at second, eventually ceding some time to Emaus, and spelling Davis at first until an injury in August. He'll play through, but it'll drop the year-end stats a good amount.

122 G
449 PA
.260/.331/.435
.338 wOBA
13 HR
39 XBH
68 RBI
64 R
9 SB/4 CS
2.1 WAR

[Frayed Knot]

I expect him to NOT be the regular starting 2Bman

[Edgy MD]

Does that include not being the lefthanded hitting part of a platoon?

[Frayed Knot]

That means less than ... oh say 50 starts there this season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This one is tricky. I'll say 90 starts at second base, 10 starts elsewhere, including 2 at third base. .275 batting average, 8 home runs.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I'm pulling for him. I hope he's the starting second baseman, adding a little pop to the lineup.

[Theoldmole]

He'll improve as a hitter. He'll be around .300, with a bunch of extra base hits. He'll improve as a fielder, though not as much. He'll be the everyday second baseman, and become a fan faovorite in the Mets' all-homegrown infield.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Another stumper.

I think there's a good chance they give Muffy a shot at being a part-time second baseman -- but just as good a chance he proves not up to it defensively, at least not enough to support his presence out there UNLESS he turns out to hit considerably better than many of us are expecting. That's a lotta ifs right there.

Not sure he turns in anything better than say, Ken Boswell of 1968:

4-11 .261/.300/.342 in 75 games/284 AB.

[Edgy MD]

Those are some decent numbers for 1968. Adjust to CitiField 2010, and it's .292 / .334 / .383 // .717.

I say he focuses on discipline and becomes Dave Magadan, 1988, adjusted for CitiField 2010: .312 / .433 / .376 // .809. It takes a while for the team to realize what a weapon they've got. He's not intimidated by lefties, but can't manage those great walk rates. He plays some first and third and left (!!) in addition to second, geting into 112 games. He spends a few weeks on the DL mid-year when his knee flares up, but comes back and plays almost every day the second half, batting second more than a bit. Some fans hate him because his power drops precipitously. Others drool over that OBP, and he becomes a lightning rod for arguments about nu stats, even though OBP is as old as the sky.

batmurphyleadoff logs on about June 30.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I kinda picked Boswell '68 because it had the right times at bat moreso than the other counter stats. I would really expect a 1971 Boswell (101 OPS+) with 1968 plate appearances.

[Frayed Knot]

I would hope Muffy's slugging numbers are more than a bit better than those numbers being thrown around (IsoP = .064 - .091) especially since his however brief career to-date figure is .162

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I just predicted an insane adjustment, from modest slugger to punch-and-judy-hitting on-base machine. It'll be a remarkable and a big story for years --- decades even. "Remember when Murphy stopped swinginng for the fences and became a walk addict? Maybe Abasifreke should try that."

[Vic Sage]

.275/10hr/60rbi-runs, better range than you'd think, strong arm overcomes technical flaws on DPs, decent hands.
all in all, an adequate ML 2bman... until he blows his knee out in July.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Suffers a severe concussion on opening day when Murph lands on his head in the dugout after unsuccessfully trying to pull off an Ike Davis style over the handrail highlight reel catch. Leads off the next inning with a HR but twists his ankle when he rounds second base awkwardly due to dizzy spells from his head knock. The next day, Murph is beaned in the face when he forgets to move out of the way of an errant pitch. Is removed from the lineup one week later.

While flying cross country to consult with a concussion doctor, his plane is hijacked.

Edited February 3, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

...Is removed from the lineup one week later

after a red-eye flight for a series in LA. Well, the flight went to LA... he got on the wrong plane and ended up in Guam. His bags ended up in Ontario.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Vic Sage wrote: ...Is removed from the lineup one week later after a red-eye flight for a series in LA. Well, the flight went to LA... he got on the wrong plane and ended up in Guam. His bags ended up in Ontario.

see my edit.

[smg58]

Not enough range to beat out Brad Emaus for the starting job. Gets traded to the Athletics for pitching help.

[G-Fafif]

Say, didn't he used to be Daniel Murphy?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Frayed Knot wrote: I would hope Muffy's slugging numbers are more than a bit better than those numbers being thrown around (IsoP = .064 - .091) especially since his however brief career to-date figure is .162

That's why my Iso was .165.

Also, Edge-- he throws righty.

[Edgy MD]

Thanks for paying attention.

[ashie62]

Injured by June.

[Edgy MD]

Well, he shouldn't have slept with June's sister.

[Fman99]

Edgy DC wrote: Yeah, I just predicted an insane adjustment, from modest slugger to punch-and-judy-hitting on-base machine. It'll be a remarkable and a big story for years --- decades even. "Remember when Murphy stopped swinginng for the fences and became a walk addict? Maybe Abasifreke should try that."

I'm going to change my CPF handle to 'batabasifrekeleadoff.'

[Guest attgig]

starting 2b, and remains so through the whole year, showing better defense than anyone expected.
17hr.
274 ba
drives in ~70

[MFS62]

attgig wrote: starting 2b, and remains so through the whole year, showing better defense than anyone expected.

Agreed.
But I'll put his counting stats at .278, 35 2B, 12 HR, 75 RBI.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

This is Melvin Mora 2000. He can hit, but his fielding will be so poor that he gets traded for some minor league help that Sandy can slot in better. No matter how hard you pound on it, the square peg will not fit in the round hole.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone.

Mora turned out to be just fine, maybe Murph will too.

I'd be curious what Collins thinks, if Murphy ends up in the utility role, would he be a candidate as a 5th OF replacement guy?