9-1 Homestand

[soupcan]

At the end of the homestand when it was made clear that the only other times Mets teams had gone 9-1 on a homestand was in 1969 and 1988 we all of course noted that both of those years were postseason years for our boys. Does that mean anything?

What I'm saying is that all through the history of this franchise - and were talking what - 48 years now and some pretty good teams - they've only done that twice and with teams that were good enough to win the division. So I'm inclined to think that a 9-1 stand is not a fluke. That if a team can pull that off that they may in fact be a pretty good team. Sure, the Cubs Braves and Dodgers played like crap - but all those teams were/are supposed to be good this year and perhaps it was the Mets who put them back on their heels and had something to do with their playing like crap.

I'm not saying that this is a guaranteed postseason unit here, but what I am saying is that just maybe we are in for an exciting, compelling summer based on what they've shown us they are capable of.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've had no doubt all along that this was a capable team, and I'm certainly excited. But one thing worth noting is that there's probably a paucity of homestands that last exactly 10 games. No?

[soupcan]

I don't know - I guess so, but are 3 series consisting of two 3 game sets and a 4 gamer really that rare? I just found it odd that over the course of 48 years only two other teams went 9-1 and those two were excellent teams. That's all really.

I'd be curious to know exactly how many 10 game stands there were.

[Centerfield]

Perhaps the better question would be how many Mets teams over the years have had 9-1 stretches.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Agreed.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I don't want to be the turd on the brunch plate... but, well...

If every game in the "hot starting pitching" period we seem to be in right now had consisted of starts like Niese's last night-- 5 baserunners in 7 innings while maintaining a tidy K rate-- then I'd be more inclined to be on-board with you. But there's a reason why some of the smarter naysayers will point to things like the 80% strand rate and BaseRuns*-- because they're a pretty strong indicator of luck-as-contributing-factor, and most of the time, prove stronger predictors of future success/failure than recent win-loss record.

As it is, I believe in this team. But that's belief-- a matter of faith and intuition, not empirical evidence. Though there may be a good amount of smoke and mirrors-- lucky wild pitches and Warthen-visit-induced DPs-- underlying the streaking, well... I'm hoping like hell that the last week and a half means that the Mets' staff has become David-Blaine-grade magicians.

I probably wouldn't make a living betting on it, though.

*- Kinda like Bill James' Runs Created-- a remarkably accurate run-estimator based on hits, walks, and homers. Think Pythagorean Record for runs, based on primary offensive stats.

[Ceetar]

Yes, the naysayers point to the 80% strand rate and high WHIPs and what not.

but what they never seem to realize that doesn't mean disaster. It doesn't mean they're going to get shelled their next time out. It could simply mean, like Niese last night, that they'll regress to the mean WITH THE WALKS, and that those walks, coupled with an already high K rate, will become outs, and strikeouts, not hits and runs. Couple that in with some cold weather and iffy situations to grip baseballs, and it's hard to try to spin the homestand into anything other than an awesome stretch that's getting the Mets the respect they deserve as one of the best teams in the NL.

[G-Fafif]

Mets' best 10+ game stretches, no more than one loss, since 2000:

� 10-1 from April 19 through April 30, 2010, encompassing a 9-1 homestand.

� 10-1 from August 12 to August 22, encompassing 4 consecutive home wins.

� 10-0 from July 5 to July 17, 2008, encompassing a 6-0 homestand.

� 9-1 from August 31 to September 10, 2007, encompassing 4 consecutive home wins.

� 11-1 from August 17 to August 30, 2006, encompassing an 8-1 homestand.

� 9-1 from June 5 to June 15, 2006, all on the road.

� 9-1 from April 6 to April 17, 2006, encompassing 6 non-consecutive home wins.

� 11-1 from September 3 to September 22, 2001, encompassing 2 consecutive home wins.

� 10-1 from August 29 to September 8, 2001, encompassing 4 consecutive home wins.

(All overlapping considered, the Mets went 15-2 from August 29 to September 22, 2001, encompassing a home record of 6-1.)

� 10-1 from July 25 to August 5, 2000, encompassing an 8-1 homestand.

� 9-1 from June 22 to July 1, 2000, all wins at home (part of a 9-4 homestand)

� 11-1 from April 13 to April 25, 2000, encompassing 8 consecutive home wins.

Edited May 1, 2010 by Guest

[G-Fafif]

Mets' best 10+ game stretches, no more than one loss, 1989-1999:

� 9-1 from June 15 to June 25, 1999, encompassing a 3-0 homestand.

� 11-1 from May 19 to May 31, 1998, encompassing a 6-1 homestand.

� 10-0 from July 1 to July 13, 1991, encompassing 3 consecutive home wins.

� 16-1 from June 17 to July 6, 1990, encompassing homestands of 5-0 and 5-1.

� 15-1 from June 12 to June 29, 1990, encompassing 7 non-consecutive home wins, including a 5-0 homestand.

(All overlapping considered, the Mets went 20-2 from June 12 to July 6, 1990, encompassing a home record of 11-1.)

Edited May 1, 2010 by Guest

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I don't want to be the turd on the brunch plate... but, well.... But there's a reason why some of the smarter naysayers will point to things like the 80% strand rate and BaseRuns*-- because they're a pretty strong indicator of luck-as-contributing-factor, and most of the time, prove stronger predictors of future success/failure than recent win-loss record.... *- Kinda like Bill James' Runs Created-- a remarkably accurate run-estimator based on hits, walks, and homers. Think Pythagorean Record for runs, based on primary offensive stats.

On the other hand, the odds are pretty slim for a non-playoff contender winning nine out of ten.

[G-Fafif]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: On the other hand, the odds are pretty slim for a non-playoff contender winning nine out of ten.

As evidenced in the above posts on best 10-game stretches since the previous 9-1 homestand (1988), the Mets have won at least 9 of 10 once in:

� 1990: Finished second in N.L. East, 4 games out.
� 1991: Finished fifth in N.L. East, 20� games out.
� 1998: Finished third in the Wild Card race, 1� games out.
� 1999: Won Wild Card.
� 2000: Won Wild Card.
� 2001: Finished third in N.L. East, 6 games out.
� 2006: Won N.L. East.
� 2007: Finished second in N.L. East, 1 game out.
� 2008: Finished second in Wild Card race, 1 game out.

Nine seasons of at least one stretch that included nine wins in ten games, and the Mets won playoff spots three times and were legitimate contenders five other times, staying plausibly alive at least until the penultimate weekend of the season. Only in 1991, a season that went haywire on the other side of midstream (53-38 start, 24-46 finish), did a 9-1 stretch not foretell reasonably good things.

[HahnSolo]

G-Fafif wrote: � 9-1 from August 31 to September 10, 2007, encompassing 4 consecutive home wins.

I clearly remember the sweep in Philly in late August and the collapse later on, but I have no recollection of this stretch.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The thing about stranding is knowing you can strand a guy if you have to, but you don't always have to.

When a team isn't hitting, pitchers act like Santana against Washington, giving up a leadoff triple in the first, so used to the offense disappointing him that he's desperately trying to keep the ball off of bats to strand that runner --- even though it's merely the first inning --- and he ends up givng up walking the bases full and giving up a grand slam.

A better hitting team allows pitchers to attempt to contain a rallly and not always have to extinguish it, which proabably makes a pitcher better at both.

And right now, they're a better hitting team.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Looking at the standings data in the UMDB, here are the 113 times when the Mets could say, at the end of the game, that they'd won 9 of their last 10:


| 1969-06-07 |
| 1969-06-11 |
| 1969-08-24 |
| 1969-08-26 |
| 1969-08-26 |
| 1969-08-27 |
| 1969-09-12 |
| 1969-09-12 |
| 1969-09-14 |
| 1969-09-15 |
| 1969-09-17 |
| 1969-09-18 |
| 1969-10-01 |
| 1969-10-02 |
| 1972-05-17 |
| 1972-05-18 |
| 1972-05-19 |
| 1972-05-23 |
| 1974-09-03 |
| 1974-09-03 |
| 1974-09-04 |
| 1976-05-04 |
| 1976-07-03 |
| 1976-07-04 |
| 1976-07-04 |
| 1984-07-08 |
| 1984-07-12 |
| 1984-07-13 |
| 1984-07-14 |
| 1984-07-16 |
| 1985-07-10 |
| 1985-07-11 |
| 1985-07-12 |
| 1985-07-13 |
| 1985-07-14 |
| 1985-07-18 |
| 1985-08-10 |
| 1985-08-11 |
| 1985-08-12 |
| 1985-08-13 |
| 1985-08-14 |
| 1985-08-15 |
| 1986-04-27 |
| 1986-05-01 |
| 1986-05-02 |
| 1986-05-03 |
| 1986-05-04 |
| 1986-05-06 |
| 1986-05-07 |
| 1986-05-09 |
| 1986-05-10 |
| 1986-06-15 |
| 1986-06-15 |
| 1986-06-16 |
| 1986-07-06 |
| 1986-08-27 |
| 1986-08-29 |
| 1986-08-30 |
| 1986-10-05 |
| 1987-08-06 |
| 1987-08-07 |
| 1988-05-07 |
| 1988-05-08 |
| 1988-09-17 |
| 1988-09-18 |
| 1988-09-20 |
| 1988-09-21 |
| 1988-09-22 |
| 1988-09-24 |
| 1988-09-25 |
| 1988-09-26 |
| 1990-06-23 |
| 1990-06-24 |
| 1990-06-25 |
| 1990-06-26 |
| 1990-06-27 |
| 1990-06-30 |
| 1990-07-01 |
| 1990-07-03 |
| 1990-07-04 |
| 1990-07-05 |
| 1990-07-06 |
| 1991-07-11 |
| 1991-07-12 |
| 1991-07-14 |
| 1998-05-29 |
| 1998-05-30 |
| 1998-05-31 |
| 1998-06-01 |
| 1999-06-25 |
| 2000-04-23 |
| 2000-04-24 |
| 2000-04-25 |
| 2000-04-26 |
| 2000-07-01 |
| 2000-08-04 |
| 2000-08-05 |
| 2001-09-07 |
| 2001-09-08 |
| 2001-09-19 |
| 2001-09-21 |
| 2001-09-22 |
| 2006-04-17 |
| 2006-06-15 |
| 2006-08-28 |
| 2006-08-29 |
| 2006-08-30 |
| 2007-09-10 |
| 2008-07-12 |
| 2008-07-13 |
| 2008-07-18 |
| 2008-08-21 |
| 2008-08-22 |
+------------+

[ashie62]

Heckuva gap from 2002-2005. Thank you Fart How

[G-Fafif]

Looking at the standings data in the UMDB, here are the 113 times when the Mets could say, at the end of the game, that they'd won 9 of their last 10

Thanks for this. I glossed over August 2008 and added it above. Purposefully omitting overlapping instances of 9-1 (e.g. Mets win 10 in a row, then lose two in a row).

[G-Fafif]

HahnSolo wrote: G-Fafif wrote: � 9-1 from August 31 to September 10, 2007, encompassing 4 consecutive home wins. I clearly remember the sweep in Philly in late August and the collapse later on, but I have no recollection of this stretch.

Mets left Philly and appeared to right themselves by sweeping the Braves at Turner Field (including Pelfrey's first truly good start), taking two of three in Cincy (including Pedro's return to rotation) and then coming home to sweep the Astros. That's what made the Collapse so jarring. The sweep at Philly seemed to be proved an aberration. Instead, the great stretch that followed turned out to be the false positive.

[G-Fafif]

Just to finish the thoughts upthread...

Mets' best 10+ game stretches, no more than one loss, prior to 1989:

� 13-1 from September 8 to September 22, 1988, encompassing a 9-1 homestand.

� 11-1 from September 14 to September 26, 1988, encompassing 8 consecutive home wins.

(All overlapping considered, the Mets went 16-2 from September 8 to September 26, 1988, encompassing a home record of 9-1.)

� 10-1 from April 26 to May 8, 1988, concompassing 5 consecutive home wins.

� 10-1 from July 28 to August 7, 1987, encompassing 5 consecutive home wins.

� 9-1 from September 25 to October 5, 1986, encompassing 3 consecutive home wins.

� 11-1 from August 17 to August 30, 1986, encompassing 3 home wins.

� 9-1 from June 25 to July 6, 1986, encompassing 4 home wins.

� 9-1 from June 6 to June 16, 1986, encompassing a 6-1 homestand.

� 18-1 from April 18 to May 10, 1986, encompassing 10 home wins.

� 12-1 from July 29 to August 13, 1985, encompassing 8 home wins.

� 13-1 from July 2 to July 18, 1985, encompassing 3 home wins.

� 12-1 from July 1 to July 14, 1984, encompassing 9 home wins.

� 9-1 from June 23 to July 4, 1976, encompassing 6 consecutive home wins.

� 9-1 from April 24 to May 4, 1976, encompassing a home record of 7-1.

� 10-1 from August 25 to September 4, 1974, encompassing a 6-1 homestand.

� 14-1 from May 7 to May 21, 1972, encompassing a home record of 10-1.

� 9-1 from September 21 to October 1, 1969, encompassing 5 consecutive home wins.

� 13-1 from September 6 to September 18, 1969, encompassing 7 consecutive home wins.

� 12-1 from August 16 to August 27, 1969, encompassing a 9-1 homestand.

� 11-0 from May 28 to June 10, 1969, encompassing 7 consecutive wins.

Therefore, the Mets have played a stretch of 10 or more games with no more than 1 loss at least once in 18 seasons prior to 2010:

� 1969: Won N.L. East (and World Series).
� 1972: Finished third in N.L. East, 13� games out.
� 1974: Finished fifth in N.L. East, 17 games out.
� 1976: Finished third in N.L. East, 15 games out.
� 1984: Finished second in N.L. East, 6� games out.
� 1985: Finished second in N.L. East, 3 games out.
� 1986: Won N.L. East (and World Series).
� 1987: Finished second in N.L. East, 3 games out.
� 1988: Won N.L. East.
� 1990: Finished second in N.L. East, 4 games out.
� 1991: Finished fifth in N.L. East, 20� games out.
� 1998: Finished third in the Wild Card race, 1� games out.
� 1999: Won Wild Card.
� 2000: Won Wild Card.
� 2001: Finished third in N.L. East, 6 games out.
� 2006: Won N.L. East.
� 2007: Finished second in N.L. East, 1 game out.
� 2008: Finished second in Wild Card race, 1 game out.
� 2010: TBD

6 times the Mets made the playoffs.

8 times the Mets were legitimate contenders into September.

2 times the Mets fell out of contention before September but finished with a winning record.

Only in 1974 (a complete mess from the word go) and 1991 (a sharp falloff in midseason) did the Mets post a losing record in a season when they enjoyed at one 9-1 stretch.

What does it indicate for 2010? Who knows? But as the multiple 9-1 or better stretches from 1969 and 1986 tell us, it pays to keep doing that.

[G-Fafif]

Adding to a list I didn't suspect would need updating for a while:

� 12-1 from June 4 to June 18, 2010, encompassing a 5-1 homestand.

The Mets should feel free to use the current 8-1 run as a jumping-off point for bigger and better things.

[Ceetar]

G-Fafif wrote: The Mets should feel free to use the current 8-1 run as a jumping-off point for bigger and better things.

I read somewhere that the only two times the Mets had two 8game winning streaks in the same season was '69 and '86.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Perhaps you read it here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=14110&p=351928

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Perhaps you read it here: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=14110&p=351928

Good call. It's been a busy weekend.

[Willets Point]

Hmm...both 8 game win streaks end while visiting the Mets fiercest rivals (first the Phillies and then the Yankees) with the Mets taking the first game but losing the series. So much for momentum.

New win streak starts tonight.

[Centerfield]

That may be hard.

(Off day)

[Willets Point]

Centerfield wrote: That may be hard. (Off day)

It's guaranteed that the Mets won't lose tonight!

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I don't want to be the turd on the brunch plate... but, well.... But there's a reason why some of the smarter naysayers will point to things like the 80% strand rate and BaseRuns*-- because they're a pretty strong indicator of luck-as-contributing-factor, and most of the time, prove stronger predictors of future success/failure than recent win-loss record.... *- Kinda like Bill James' Runs Created-- a remarkably accurate run-estimator based on hits, walks, and homers. Think Pythagorean Record for runs, based on primary offensive stats. On the other hand, the odds are pretty slim for a non-playoff contender winning nine out of ten.

Bump.