The Mets and Meija

[G-Fafif]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Nice piece on Mejia right here by the Star-Ledger's Brian Costa, who seems an interesting kid.

Mejia started shining shoes when he was 11. He didn't necessarily enjoy the work, but he took pride in earning money when other kids he knew were picking pockets.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It has become routine to say the Mets must start strong, but it is not as if all will be nirvana if they are pre-Memorial Day champs, but are again Labor Day flameouts, circa 2007-08. They are more likely to regret rushing Mejia than to blow the season in the first 60 games due to eighth-inning shortcomings... ... Relievers are volatile, up and down. So teams can luck into late-game solutions. You cannot say the same for elite starters. Put it this way: The Mets have a better chance of unearthing Francisco Rodriguez�s set-up man than finding an internal solution when John Maine, Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez inevitably break body parts or hearts. Their best rotation safety net is Mejia, who became a top-30 major league prospect as a starter. But only 10 of his starts, to date, are above Single-A. So, with an eye on the long season, let Mejia refine at Triple-A. If he continues to be as tempting as he is now, then he will be quite a gift come June 1 in whatever role he is needed.

Is Joel Sherman, like, a LOT smarter than we all thought? Or is he just smarter than the Omar/Jerry faction (and NYP teammate Kevin Kernan*)?

*Pretty good litmus test for whether to listen to someone advocating for the Mets to take a particular course of action with Mejia: the greater the number/prominence of the Mariano RIvera or Doc invocations in said advocacy, the less you probably want to seriously listen.

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: So, you answer none of my questions, and hit me with snide stuff like "there is a difference." They have already begun transitioning him to a reliever's work schedule. And, no, I would hope he immediately wouldn't go to pitching every day. Thanks, but I asked if anybody seriously believed that the Mets planned to do that. There are only 4 weeks left. And again, what is the appropriate schedule and how are the Mets somehow violating it? How long did Aaron Heilman have or Grant Roberts or Rick Aguilera? Why do we have to go back and forth over ten posts for me to suss out what exactly is the objection?

Does it really friggin matter that much? Geezuz

[Guest Edgy DC]

In the great scheme of things, no, it doesn't matter much whether Jenrry Mejia starts or relieves.

If the satisfaction of your days on earth is linked to the success of the progress of the greater Mets movement, in time and in space and beyond --- and mine is --- it matters.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

And here's why I don't want him in the bullpen... much less a bullpen commanded by this guy:

Gangsta McLameDuck wrote: Manuel wasn't thrilled to see Mejia dabbling with a breaking ball that led to Guzman's walk. "I would like to see [Mejia] stay with the hard stuff," Manuel said. "He has enough. If he can command that [cutter], he has enough."

[metirish]

Marty Noble in a Q@A projected Mejia as the closer when K-Rods contract is up in 2012.

Do you believe Jenrry Mejia's future is in the bullpen, or are the Mets just talking about that role for him this season? He seems like he might have the potential to be a top of the rotation starter. -- Scott F., Plainview, N.Y. We haven't seen him as a starter, and we haven't seen all that much of his as a reliever. For now, the club is looking at him as a reliever, not an eighth-inning reliever yet, but perhaps by the early summer if he is successful in his first big league endeavors. My crystal ball sees this scenario developing: he becomes a successful short reliever this year, returns next year in the same role and in 2012, when Francisco Rodriguez's contract has expired, Mejia becomes the closer. That is based on nothing his stuff, his age, his circumstances and Rodriguez's contractual status.

EDIT to reflect end of contract

[Benjamin Grimm]

metirish wrote: Marty Noble in a Q@A projected Mejia as the closer when K-Rods contract is up in 2011.

Yuck. I'd so much prefer him to be a starting pitcher.

[duan]

yeah I saw that too and felt like banging my head off the table. Not that it's necessarily true or anything. All you need to look at is the salaries paid to 'top' relievers as only being the same as the salaries paid to middling starters to realise where the real value would lie.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd like to believe the Mets are using Meija in relief this spring to get an idea of what he can do in a short-relief role, with an eye toward possibly bringing him up to provide that "K-Rod Factor" late in the season should they need it. Making him a reliever for at least part of the year is also a way to use him while also limiting the number of innings he'd likely throw as a starter all year now that Tom Verducci has made it clear that large percentage increases in IP year-over-year is akin to bashing a guy in the shoulder with a bat over and over. Meija threw less than 100 innings last year.

I also think they are saying "we're serious about his making the opening-day roster!" as a means to throw off the vulnerable from seeing this all just a test.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Earl Weaver broke in just about every starting pitcher he ever broke in, pitching short and then long relief. Weaver's pitchers had to earn their starter's stripes coming out of the bullpen. Now whether the Mets ultimately hope to develop Mejia into a major league starter is another issue, but I disagree with the idea that automatically, Mejia will get ruined pitching in a relief role. There's nothing necessarily wrong with this approach, handled right.*


* I know. It's the Mets we're talking about.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

How will Mejia's development be strained by bringing him up now?

Mejia's main deficiency as a potential starter is consistent command of his secondary pitches, which show major-league-average potential with just a little tooling so far. Not only is he less likely to have time to tool around with those pitches under game conditions because of the role itself (get 1-3 batters out at a time under extreme results-dependent pressure), but the manager himself has come out and discouraged his development anything but the one pitch.

Granted, starting one's major-league career in the bullpen isn't an automatic SP-career-killer in general. It will likely be for this particular pitcher, under this particular manager.

[metirish]

Handled correctly is a key phrase for me in this, can two words be a phrase?

Anyway , look at that fat fuck over in the Bronx......not "Fat Joe" but "Fat Joba", guys lights out his first year coming from the pen then when asked to start the following year he looks decidedly average trying to throw four pitches and his blazing fastball is gone it seems. It's like he was two different pitchers in the same fat body, now it looks again like he's bound for the pen Rogers tells me in his top rated podcast(I don't keep up with them) , has he been handled correctly?

This is what I fear for Mejia.

[duan]

lots of guys have spent plenty of time doing long relief/spots starts before becoming the main attraction. Roy Oswalt being classic example of a guy who was brought up that way.

I don't think that's what they're intending with Meija though - the way they've been talking about it you'd be fairly clear that they're seeing him as a classic middle reliever if he's up this season.

I really really really think that they should just let him go to AA and start and if he continues to be lights out then look at how they bring him in to the big league level, but in the time that they're doing that they can sift through Nieve/Figgy/Takahasi/Iguchi/Misch

all of whom seem worthy of more then just getting passed through waivers.

[Fman99]

metirish wrote: Handled correctly is a key phrase for me in this, can two words be a phrase? Anyway , look at that fat fuck over in the Bronx......not "Fat Joe" but "Fat Joba", guys lights out his first year coming from the pen then when asked to start the following year he looks decidedly average trying to throw four pitches and his blazing fastball is gone it seems. It's like he was two different pitchers in the same fat body, now it looks again like he's bound for the pen Rogers tells me in his top rated podcast(I don't keep up with them) , has he been handled correctly? This is what I fear for Mejia.

Listening to the Steve Rogers podcast is on my list, right after "watch the Whoopi Goldberg sex tape."

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Making him a reliever for at least part of the year is also a way to use him while also limiting the number of innings he'd likely throw as a starter all year now that Tom Verducci has made it clear that large percentage increases in IP year-over-year is akin to bashing a guy in the shoulder with a bat over and over. Meija threw less than 100 innings last year.

Except that, you know, unless some evidence for it ever pops up, there is no Verducci effect.

Mejia needs to start in the minors this year. If he can learn to throw his secondary pitches for strikes, I think he becomes a monster starting pitcher. He's not gonna be learning to throw those pitches for strikes coming out of the bullpen on the Flushing Mets this year. The difference in value between Mejia and the pitcher he'd be replacing in the bullpen in the majors this year is almost certainly not worth the risk that by using him to throw almost nothing but fastballs out of the bullpen this year, essentially punting a year of possible development (not to mention possibly starting his service time clock), Mejia does not become the top-flight starter he might otherwise possibly become. I think by putting him in the bullpen this year, the team would be taking a dollar today while forfeiting ten dollars tomorrow.

Of course, there's always the very possible chance that Mejia would never develop into a top flight starter no matter how the Mets treat him, but I'm optimistic about the kid. And if I thought that adding Mejia to the major league bullpen this year would be the difference between the Mets making the playoffs or not, maybe my opinion would be different. But I think it's very unlikely that this is the case this year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: How will Mejia's development be strained by bringing him up now? Mejia's main deficiency as a potential starter is consistent command of his secondary pitches, which show major-league-average potential with just a little tooling so far. Not only is he less likely to have time to tool around with those pitches under game conditions because of the role itself (get 1-3 batters out at a time under extreme results-dependent pressure), but the manager himself has come out and discouraged his development anything but the one pitch. Granted, starting one's major-league career in the bullpen isn't an automatic SP-career-killer in general. It will likely be for this particular pitcher, under this particular manager.

Well then the Mets wouldn't be handling Mejia's situation the right way. (See my previous post on this thread). Weaver's pitchers, by the way, tended to arrive on the MLB scene a bit more polished than the present version of Mejia .

[Guest Edgy DC]

It wasn't lost on me either to see the Mets experimenting with Mejia in relief while Adam Wainright was throwing for the Cardinals.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Making him a reliever for at least part of the year is also a way to use him while also limiting the number of innings he'd likely throw as a starter all year now that Tom Verducci has made it clear that large percentage increases in IP year-over-year is akin to bashing a guy in the shoulder with a bat over and over. Meija threw less than 100 innings last year. Except that, you know, unless some evidence for it ever pops up, there is no Verducci effect. Mejia needs to start in the minors this year. If he can learn to throw his secondary pitches for strikes, I think he becomes a monster starting pitcher. He's not gonna be learning to throw those pitches for strikes coming out of the bullpen on the Flushing Mets this year. The difference in value between Mejia and the pitcher he'd be replacing in the bullpen in the majors this year is almost certainly not worth the risk that by using him to throw almost nothing but fastballs out of the bullpen this year, essentially punting a year of possible development (not to mention possibly starting his service time clock), Mejia does not become the top-flight starter he might otherwise possibly become. I think by putting him in the bullpen this year, the team would be taking a dollar today while forfeiting ten dollars tomorrow. Of course, there's always the very possible chance that Mejia would never develop into a top flight starter no matter how the Mets treat him, but I'm optimistic about the kid. And if I thought that adding Mejia to the major league bullpen this year would be the difference between the Mets making the playoffs or not, maybe my opinion would be different. But I think it's very unlikely that this is the case this year.

Yeah, I thought my allusion to baseball bats hitting shoulders was a clue to my skepticism around the Verducci stuff, but did not see that article, so thanks.

I tend to agree with the last part, I think what's most likely is the kids' gonna be what he's gonna be. Anyhow as I said before I'd be surprised if Meija doesn't wind up starting in the minors this summer.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Yeah, I thought my allusion to baseball bats hitting shoulders was a clue to my skepticism around the Verducci stuff

/checks sarcasm machine
/notices ironitron capacitor is broken
/remembers warranty is up on sarcasm machine
/orders new ironitron capacitor online.

[G-Fafif]

Kevin Burkhardt on SNY last night referred to Mejia as a near lock to make the team.

[Ceetar]

G-Fafif wrote: Kevin Burkhardt on SNY last night referred to Mejia as a near lock to make the team.

Think David Lennon said 70% yesterday.

I wonder if maybe Manuel's trying one of his back-handed techniques of trying to challenge someone else to step up. (Although unless he likes you he won't notice anyway. What's Misch's ERA again this spring?)

I'll live with whatever decision they make. The worse would be trying to get him to exactly emulate Rivera and throw only fastballs, but if he's in the bullpen and including his other pitches as well..well, good for him. Honestly, once the season starts, I no longer care about prospects and development. If he's helping the team, he's helping the team.

And the Mets haven't shown any indication that they'd stick to Verducci's theory anyway. (Pelfrey). So no saying he couldn't be a starter next year.

[metirish]

it sure sounds like he is going north

PORT ST. LUCIE - Jenrry Mejia passed what could be an important test Tuesday, pitching an impressive scoreless inning in a 7-6 win over the Braves as he was used on back-to-back days for the first time. "I want to see the adrenaline, how he responds with that adrenaline," said Jerry Manuel. "He was very impressive." Coming on to pitch the sixth, Mejia worked an easy 1-2-3 inning, striking out Matt Diaz with a 97 mph fastball. He also got a couple of routine groundouts. Mejia's ERA is 1.54 in 11-2/3 innings with only two walks, which is most significant to the Mets because of the control issues he had in the minors and last year in the Arizona Fall League, where he walked nearly a batter an inning. "The fact that he's throwing strikes is huge for him and for us," Manuel said. "That's what we need." Mejia said his command has improved since Manuel talked to him early in camp about throwing to only one side of the plate and primarily throwing his fastball, which acts like a cutter. "I feel much better than I did in Arizona," he said. Manuel, who wants to keep Mejia to help his late-inning bullpen, continues to say he won't use him immediately in the eighth-inning role, hoping instead to ease him into such pressure situations. Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2010/03/24/2010-03-24_give_jenrry_the_8th_jerry_might.html#ixzz0j6IL25NR

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Still don;t believe it will happen.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Hearing it out of Blowhard McHowtheHellDidYOUWinaManageroftheYearAward or David Lennon is one thing... hearing this from Omar Minaya (via John Harper) is another:

A Man Who Sounds Like He's Trying to Save His Job wrote: GM Omar Minaya said he is more open to the idea of keeping Mejia, 20, as a reliever than he was earlier in the spring "because he has shown more command" than he did as a minor-leaguer. Minaya said that even if need for such a bullpen weapon dictates the move, he still sees Mejia as a starter in the future. "Other starters have done it, starting out in the bullpen," the GM said. "Johan Santana did it."

"Of course," he did not continue, "Johan was a Rule 5 pick, and the Twins are a lot more careful about holding onto those than we are-- sorry again, Darren! Additionally, he didn't really become Johan Johan until he was sent back down for a year to the minors to work on that changeup. Jjenrry will probably have to do the same, but that will be new GM Adam Rubin's problem."

[metirish]

You don't like Manuel do you LWFS? , I eagerly await your new name for him each day.

Anyway , because he has shown more command" than he did as a minor-leaguer.

He's still a minor leaguer technically right? , when did he pitch in the AFL? , that wasn't that long ago right?...

[Ceetar]

Well, Omar's last statement was that he was going to AA.

So "More Open" simply means "willing to consider it."

Which is good. GMs should always consider all options. He mentions Santana not as a direct parallel, but more as a reference point to say that it's not unheard of, and that a pitcher is not barred from the rotation once he's thrown a relief inning in the majors. (Though Aaron Heilman may disagree)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

metirish wrote: You don't like Manuel do you LWFS? , I eagerly await your new name for him each day.

I regarded him as a charming, relatively harmless and well-meaning-- if frustrating-- shlub up until the moment he impugned a departed Ryan Church's toughness. Now it's almost as tough to respect him as a standup guy as it is to respect his abilities as an in-game decision-maker.

metirish wrote: Anyway , because he has shown more command" than he did as a minor-leaguer. He's still a minor leaguer technically right? , when did he pitch in the AFL? , that wasn't that long ago right?...

He's pitched 166 1/3 total innings as a professional over two seasons, 44 1/3 of that above A-ball. Bringing him up now under this particular regime would be like bringing up Dwight Gooden in 1983 to help that pen, and telling him to knock off that curveball crap.

[smg58]

I think it's easier to move a starter to the pen mid-season than to do it the other way around. Wainwright was a starter in the minors, came up to fill a need because he was the best arm they had for the role, and eventually thrived as a starter at this level. Joba's ascent to the big leagues started similarly, but then they tried to ease him from relieving to starting mid-season in 08, and he's since gone backwards.

I think if you commit to using Mejia as a reliever right now, you had better commit to keeping him in the pen for all of 2010. Among other things, that means you need to be confident he can stay up in the majors all season; otherwise, assuming you see him as a starter long-term, you've cost him a year of development. Personally I've been wavering on my opinion of his ability to handle it, but Parnell survived in the Mets pen last year after making a similar transition. Mejia is more talented than Parnell, so lately I've been leaning towards bringing him to Queens.

[Guest attgig]

I think anyone and everyone doesn't like Meija in the pen this year.... well, anyone and everyone except the 2 voters here, and jerry and omar... maybe the 2 voters here ARE..... hmmmm:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/tmi-mlb/post?id=1269

FanGraphs: Is Jenrry Mejia the next Joba? March, 25, 2010 By Joe Pawlikowski, FanGraphs After a year in which three of their best players missed a major chunk of the season, the Mets needed some good news to kick off 2010. They've gotten some in the form of the performance of their best prospect, righthander Jenrry Mejia. After striking out more than a man per inning last season as the youngest player in the Eastern League (Double-A), the 20-year-old has been the talk of camp with his electric mid-90s fastball. He's been so good, in fact, that the club is thinking of promoting him to the big leagues as a reliever. While he might thrive in that role, it would still be a bad decision. Manager Jerry Manuel has pondered Mejia in the bullpen because he thinks he and Francsico Rodriguez will give the team a dynamic one-two combo to finish games. The problem is that Mejia still has a lot of development left. He admits his command issues, saying that he aims for the middle of the plate and hopes for the best. His slider also needs work, though he does feature an impressive changeup. As a reliever, these secondary pitches would not get the attention they need to improve. The Mariners and Yankees should both provide cautionary tales for the Mets. Each tried to groom a young starter with ace potential, Brandon Morrow and Joba Chamberlain respectively, in the major league bullpen. While both performed well, they have also struggled in the transition back to the rotation. The Mariners ended up trading Morrow, while the Yankees have seemingly moved Chamberlain back to the bullpen once again. What's so bad about the bullpen? After all, both Morrow and Chamberlain have pitched well as relievers. Their teams, though, won't realize maximum value. Starters affect a much greater portion of a team's innings. If a team has 1450 IP in a season, a 200-inning starter covers 13.8 percent of the total time. A reliever who throws 70 innings affects just 4.8 percent of total innings. This shows up in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), too. Last year Barry Zito, who had had a 4.03 ERA in 192 innings, was worth 2.2 WAR, while Heath Bell, the NL saves leader, was worth 2.0 WAR. And if you don't believe WAR, look at the free agent market, where the contracts given to top-flight starters typically dwarf those given to elite relievers. The Mets might not have as strong a bullpen this year without Mejia, but by allowing him to properly develop in the minors they could see a greater return in the future. That's not easy to stomach for fans who want to win today, nor is it an easy decision for Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya whose jobs might be on the line, but it is the correct one for the future of the team. Considering the Mets haven't featured a homegrown ace since Doc Gooden, you'd think they realize it would be foolish to stunt Mejia's growth.

[Guest Edgy DC]

LeiterWagner's directive: don't do anything. In fact, try not to move. Just sit there until we fire you. Better yet, sit there until we die and our replacments fire you.