The Mets and Meija

[Guest attgig]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mets-and-mejia/

by R.J. Anderson - March 12, 2010 - Share this Article Let�s just get this part out of the way: The Mets have issues. Lots of issues. But, as if Jose Reyes� thyroid, repeated late-season meltdowns, questionable ownership finances, and an assistant general manager turning into Hulk Hogan weren�t bad enough, now this appears: LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. � If Jenrry Mejia is assigned to the Mets� Double-A team, he�s not going to be stretched out enough to immediately contribute in the Binghamton rotation. Jerry Manuel is determined to begin using Mejia in short and frequent relief spurts, to gauge how he reacts to pitching in that capacity, the Daily News has learned. The expectation is Mejia will remain in big-league camp through the final week working as a reliever. The scariest part of this is not that Jerry Manuel is evidently making decisions on prospects. It�s that Omar Minaya is either in complete agreement or is totally indifferent to the situation at hand. Minaya�s job is to handle the team�s present and future assets with care and diligence. Manuel�s job is to manage the players assembled by Minaya and provide input on the margins, not to decide in autonomous fashion what capacity the team�s best pitching prospect should be used during spring. Neither is doing their job. This becomes less of a possibility and more of a certainty once you realize who we�re talking about. Save the comparisons to Neftali Feliz and David Price. Neither began the season in their respective Major League team�s bullpen and both had more experience starting. Those two situations were of special circumstance (that circumstance being a heated playoff run). The Mets aren�t doing this to limit Mejia�s innings or propel them towards the playoffs. Well, they might actually be doing it for the latter, but more on that in a moment. This is all tempting because Mejia is a great arm. Keith Law had his fastball sitting in the 93-96 range with cutting action and noted his overall repertoire as �top-of-the-rotation stuff� � big praise for a 20-year-old with a little over 150 innings of experience outside of short-season ball. Baseball America ranked Mejia as the Mets� top prospect and quoted catcher Josh Thole as saying that the movement on Mejia�s heater convinced batters that it was a slider. They also note that Manuel watched Mejia during Arizona Fall League action to gauge whether he could be of relief help in 2010. Could Mejia jump to the Majors in three weeks and succeed? Probably. He�d probably pitch quite well out of the bullpen. He has a fastball so hot that it removes the wrinkles from opposing hitters� shirts. He could really dial that baby up even more in limited action. He might just be the best set-up man in the National League. Heck, maybe the next Mariano Rivera. And then what? Well, then the Mets enter 2011, which happens to be the final year that Francisco Rodriguez is guaranteed a paycheck. It�s also the final year that Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo are under contract. It�s a big year. It could be the final year they have this nucleus to really go for it before drastically altering the look of the roster. So, maybe they move Mejia to the rotation. Maybe he hits the ground running and never looks back. Or maybe, like Joba Chamberlain, he has a few hiccups moving to the rotation permanently, and rather than sending him down, they send him to the bullpen where he once again turns the eighth inning into Hades for opposing hitters. And then what? Well, then the Mets enter 2012 and Mejia is their closer. And then what? Well, then the Mets enter 2013 and Mejia is still their closer. And so on. Yes, that entire scenario is derived from a lack of confidence in the Mets and their ability to properly handle the situation. Did it fall down a slippery slope and is it a bit melodramatic? Yes, most likely. But at the same time, if they place Mejia in the pen it will open Pandora�s Box moving forward. More concisely: It sets the table for confirmation bias when Mejia is moved back to the rotation. This isn�t Earl Weaver with Dennis Martinez, Wayne Garland, or Scott McGregor. Those guys had hundreds of minor league innings before Weaver broke them in as a long reliever. This is reckless handling of a long-term asset in order to save Manuel and Minaya�s jobs. Maybe that�s too harsh, but these guys have not earned the benefit of the doubt.

We haven't talked much about what's going to happen to Mejia. Does he belong in the pen? or is that bad management by higher ups who don't want to lose their jobs?

[Guest Edgy DC]

That lede is just too loaded to tolerate, but... if he gets worked as a reliever, and the Mets decide to farm him out anyhow, he can be "stretched out" during the early part of the minor-league season, or in extended spring training.

You see how easy that is?

[Ceetar]

Minaya's repeatedly said Meija is going to AA.

While none of this will likely have any real affect on Meija or his development, the idea that Manuel is/will do something totally against the organizational plan is a cause for concern.

[MFS62]

I agree with Edgy. I have no problem with Jerry pitching him in relief in ST and then stretching him out to start when he gets sent down. That is a reasonable approach to developing a prospect who will end up a starter.

What scares me was a quote I read from Jerry last week in which he said that he will try pitching Mejia two days in a row out of the bullpen. The toughest thing that can be done when "training" a young arm for the bullpen is seeing if the arm has the ability to "snap back" after pitching, so he can pitch the second day.

I'd hate to take a chance on injuring an arm like he has, knowing he will eventually be a starter anyhow.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't see what the big deal is.

If he's good enough to help the ballclub, let him help.

[ashie62]

I'd like to see him as a starting pitcher for the Mets in 2011

[TransMonk]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If he's good enough to help the ballclub, let him help.

I think this is what Jerry has said and I tend to agree with it's simplicity.

Ashie62 wrote: I'd like to see him as a starting pitcher for the Mets in 2011

This is my ultimate hope for him as well.

I'm hoping whatever they do, they cap his innings so that he is not throwing any more than his progression from last season would allow. It seems to me that spliting his 2010 time between being an MLB reliever and a AAA starter may be best.

[Guest Edgy DC]

If pitching him two days in a row is too dangerous, then baseball is too dangerous.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: If pitching him two days in a row is too dangerous, then baseball is too dangerous.

Not for a guy who has experience pitching out of the pen say, every other day, for a season or two. But he's 20 years old and has always been a starter (with different warmup routines). Why risk it in his case?

EDIT: That's like pulling your boat trailer with your new Porsche when you have a Jeep in your garage too.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

If he's capable of starting I want him starting.

[metsmarathon]

i'd prefer to see him start the season in AAA, and then, if needed, come up to help the club out of the pen

[Guest Edgy DC]

What in particular is the extent of the of the amplified injury risk? People throw on consecutive days and pitch on consecutive days every day.

What, exactly, is the correct process for transitioning a guy from starting to relieving? It's done all the time.

[MFS62]

I can't quantify it. But his arm is something special. I wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risks, especially at his age. That's just my opinion.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

And how is that an un-necessary risk any more than any other uses? Maybe using him as a starter is a risk. I don't get it at all. Bobby Parnell has a great arm, and the Mets moved him to the bullpen last year. What of it?

I think columnists are working overtime to set Met leadership up with, "If something goes wrong, it's his fault, and I'm going to fry him" scenarios. I don't think we should fall into the same trap.

[metirish]

MFS62 wrote: I can't quantify it. But his arm is something special. I wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risks, especially at his age. That's just my opinion. Later

Just curious, how many times have you seen this kid pitch?

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: And how is that an un-necessary risk any more than any other uses? Maybe using him as a starter is a risk. I don't get it at all. Bobby Parnell has a great arm, and the Mets moved him to the bullpen last year. What of it? I think columnists are working overtime to set Met leadership up with, "If something goes wrong, it's his fault, and I'm going to fry him" scenarios. I don't think we should fall into the same trap.

That's fine, because there was plenty to fry them with last year and the media just rolled over and enjoyed Manuel's quotables. But now that it's obvious they have something to prove, the media will be looking for it. This can only be good, because Manuel is a horrible manager and media pressure may get the Mets to pull the trigger.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Which is all missing my point.

Accepting, for the purpose of argument, that he's horrible, it doesn't make everything he does wrong. And if the best argument that this is a wrong move is "Jerry Manuel wants to do it, and he's horrible, so it's therefore wrong" is just not fully thought out.

So it's not fine at all.

[TransMonk]

I've gathered from Ceetar's posts that he is not a big Jerry Manuel fan.

[MFS62]

Edgy, All they way back, in my first comment I said I agreed with you. I have no problem with using him in the bullpen during ST and then stretching him out later as a starter. My comments were focused on the comment that Jerry said he'd use him two days in a row. If he hasn't been used as a reliever before, and he's going to be a starter in the future, I just feel doing that is unnecessary.
Maybe its because I had a sore arm and never recovered from it that I tend to lean to the side of caution.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's what reilevers are. They are guys who on occasion are asked to pitch two days in a row.

Some pitch more and some pitch less, but as far as I know only one has ever been restricted from pitching two days in a row. Is that now to be the only acceptable standard?

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: That's what reilevers are. They are guys who on occasion are asked to pitch two days in a row. Some pitch more and some pitch less, but as far as I know only one has ever been restricted from pitching two days in a row. Is that now to be the only acceptable standard?

And who was that one?
Anyhow, yes, relievers are called upon to pitch two days in a row (and sometimes more). But they had been relievers before, and first their arms were gradually "trained" up to the level of pitching every other day before pitching two days in a row. I think that changing this particular pitcher, given his experience as a starter and youth, over the course of a couple of weeks, is not the right course.
As Dennis Miller has said "Its just my opinion and, I may be wrong."
Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

The one I speak of is Joba Chamberlain.

I understand it's just your opinion, but there are holes in it that I'm trying to fill. Over the course of a couple of weeks? How many? He's been in spring training a couple of weeks and they are experimenting with him as a reliever. Not all relievers were reliever before. In fact, I imagine all of them weren't. What is your understanding of the normal course of transitioning and how do you expect any plan the Mets take to differ?

Does anyobdy seriously believe the plan is to go from pitching him on four days of rest to pitching him on zero?

[MFS62]

Actually, to this point they have been using him as a substitute starter. There is a difference. He has been given his usual warmup time and routine before coming into the games to pitch multiple innings. Relievers are typically given less time to warm up. If they are going to prep him to be a reliever, then they will have start at ground zero - his warmup routine before they do anything else. And, no, I would hope he immediately wouldn't go to pitching every day. But first things first. There are only 4 weeks left.
And if his arm doesn't take well to it, stop it immediately.
Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

So, you answer none of my questions, and hit me with snide stuff like "there is a difference."

They have already begun transitioning him to a reliever's work schedule.

And, no, I would hope he immediately wouldn't go to pitching every day.

Thanks, but I asked if anybody seriously believed that the Mets planned to do that.

There are only 4 weeks left.

And again, what is the appropriate schedule and how are the Mets somehow violating it? How long did Aaron Heilman have or Grant Roberts or Rick Aguilera?

Why do we have to go back and forth over ten posts for me to suss out what exactly is the objection?

[Guest Number 6]

I'm not going to speak for MFS62, but any concerns I might have are contingent on some "ifs" implied in the article, and any uncertainty is due to not having a firm grasp of what is/is not potentially dangerous for a young starting pitcher.

The common wisdom as it relates to Mejia, as also applied to other young starters with great stuff, is that he would be best used as an asset in the rotation should he develop the necessary repertoire and endurance. There's probably no argument in here about that. The article seems to suggest that breaking Mejia in as a reliever in the bigs out of ST with his amount of experience would be detrimental to that goal, or at least to achieving it in the quickest and safest way possible. The article doesn't do a very good job of substantiating why that would be detrimental, and I'm not about to take it at its word.

However, if the article is correct and bringing Mejia into the bullpen in a short-relief role would most likely set back his development as a starter, I would oppose it. If we get into bullpen panic mode sometime during the season, maybe the benefit it could provide to the team NOW!!! would outweigh the cost in development time, and I'd reconsider. But these days we have a bullpen corps that looks promising, and I don't see why we would have a need to gamble, if this move indeed constitutes such. More information is needed if this decision is going to be taken seriously - information that's probably out there but the author does not specifically cite.

On the Jerry/Omar communication thing, sure, it would be embarrassing if they're not on the same page and Jerry is making independent decisions on prospect development. I find that a little hard to believe, though.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Does anyone really think Jerry has the juice to make something controversial happen without the blessing of the front office? I don't.

[Guest Number 6]

RJ Anderson does, apparently.

[Valadius]

I want him starting in AAA. He's earned that much at least.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

This is the first time I've seen him pitch. He gave up one run in two innings on a couple of moderately well-struck hits, but he seems to have some incredible stuff, as advertised.

Do they call him Jannk for short?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'd BOC Monk, but he's already been BOCed. BOCed hard.

Nice piece on Mejia right here by the Star-Ledger's Brian Costa, who seems an interesting kid.