Thyroid Suspicions

[Guest Edgy DC]

I ask you people, vote with your heads and not your hearts on this one.

[MFS62]

I voted zero because of the way the choices were worded.
I'm not sure if tracing, muchless proving, the link is scientifically possible.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

How would you have had me word the choices? Forget about "can be traced" and go with "is linked."

[Guest Edgy DC]

There, I changed them all.

[MFS62]

Yes. From the references that were posted in the other thread on the subject, "can be linked" is a better choice.
But in Reyes' specific case, I'd still vote none.
Thanks.
Later

[Guest themetfairy]

I am sure of nothing. As in, I have no idea whether Jose used an improper substance.

[metirish]

This didn't work out all that well....

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Went with 30 percent, representing 10 percent each for "These are the exact effects that HGH use/other hormonal tweaking would have" and, "He sought treatment from a guy being investigated for smuggling the stuff into the US," along with a 10 percent "bonus" for "you never know" (essentially, my baseline).

[metirish]

I too went with 30% although I didn't put a whole lot of thought in to it like LWFS.

[TransMonk]

Without reading the thread and just voting in the poll, I went thirty as well. My heart says "zero".

[Frayed Knot]

I think it's the result of a plot among Miami-based Cubans and the mob.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Went with 30 percent, representing 10 percent each for "These are the exact effects that HGH use/other hormonal tweaking would have" and, "He sought treatment from a guy being investigated for smuggling the stuff into the US," along with a 10 percent "bonus" for "you never know" (essentially, my baseline).[/quote:vxe89csk]
I didn't plot it out as such, but this probably represents my thinking as well.

Strange how we're getting clusters.

One vote for 60%
Three votes for 30%.
Four votes for 0%. (Really?)

[MFS62]

You can link anything to anything (e.g.- by using it in the same sentence). But that doesn't mean they are truly connected. Without proof, it is all speculation.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I voted 40. I think there's a 40 per cent likelihood that HGH has something to do with this.

[Guest Edgy DC]

You can link anything to anything (e.g.- by using it in the same sentence). But that doesn't mean they are truly connected.[/quote:152yw87d]
That's why we have percentages. Certainty exists on a continuum.

What's with the internet and semantics lessons?

[duan]

well in my head there's about a 10% chance that any player is using performance enhancing substances and then something like this inflates my suspician considerably so I got to 30%.

of course this is all just thinking out loud and putting numbers against ideas in my head.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I went with 60% since I'd be more surprised to discover that Reyes was clean than not clean, but that's how I am with all jocks -- none of them deserve the benefit of the doubt. I am clueless as to the mysteries of the thyroid, and would prolly vote 60% guilty even without that condition.

[ashie62]

20% Just because to me there is some reasonable doubt.

I just hope Jose regains his health baseball or not

[metsmarathon]

i put down 40%, but i'm not so sure about it. my heart says it should be lower, but my head screams that it could be higher.

the only way it really matters is that determining the cause determines the cure.

[Benjamin Grimm]

the only way it really matters is that determining the cause determines the cure.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

One vote for 60%
Three votes for 30%.
Four votes for 0%. (Really?)[/quote:y2z1itz5]

Though I'm not quite as hardbitten a Numbah-Crunchah as JCL over there, the only person who gets a 0 from me is me. I mean, I don't have access to G-Fafif's training room, so I have no idea what "beverages" he's pumping in his system before churning out BOCs.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, I mean it's maddening how seemingly every time I put up a poll, I get folks (usually MFS62) trying to elude the purpose of the poll by doing some half-smart reading of the question, when the meaning should be quite clear.

I know "we mustn't jump to conclusions" and all, but by voting 0%, it should be clear to anyone reading reasonably fairly, you're saying you're 100% certain that his condition has no link to performance enhancing drug use.

[MFS62]

Edgy, I wasn't trying to be a smartass.
I was probably unclear in my comments.
Prior to this stuff about the Canadian Doctor, there was never any link I know of Reyes to PEDs.
I don't know whether the reason Reyes went to the Doctor was that his American treatment wasn't working and he felt he needed another kind of treatment. And we don't know if the reason those (American) treatments weren't working well was because he already had undiagnosed thyroid problems prior to that treatment.
And the Doctor is claiming that he only did blood spinning and did not add any PEDs.
I don't know if thyroid problems happen overnight or if they are from birth.
So, in absence of any resolution to the chicken/egg question (did taking PEDs cause the thyroid problems) , I voted 0% from my head, not my heart.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

So you're saying you're 100% certain that his condition has no link to performance enhancing drug use?

[Benjamin Grimm]

He seems to be saying that since Jose had never before been linked to PED's, then there's no reason to think that he took anything illegal.

It's like saying that O.J. couldn't have killed his wife and her friend because he had never previously murdered anybody.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, ten voters are now on board with that 0% figure. I'm at least a little suprised. You have no suspicion that Jose has used and this might be a complication? Or is that you have a suspicion that is closer to 0% than 10%?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think, despite your instructions, they're voting with their hearts and not their heads.

How could you possibly be 100% certain that Jose didn't take anything illegal?

I remember reading in Rookie how Dwight Gooden said he'd never use drugs, because he was brought up right.

I was naive enough back then to think that that statement meant something. Not anymore.

[Guest holychicken]

If my knowledge of the facts is correct. . .

He unnecessarily went to a Canadian doctor to get a procedure done that he could have had done in the states. That doctor is now linked with HGH.

On top of that, unless ADHD is a benefit to a baseball player (which would make taking adderall a performance diminisher), we pretty much know that a good chunk of players are lying about having ADHD to get their hands on sweet, sweet adderall considering the fact that they are prescribed adderall at 2 times the rate of the normal population (who is almost certainly over prescribed themselves). So I believe it is naive to think that HGH, the undetectable steroid, is not being used by a large percentage of MLBers.

All that being said, I voted that there is about a 70% chance that this is related HGH and, honestly, I think my heart is bringing that number down a bit.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, I guess you can certainly over-read the question and say "Well, I'm not 100% certain that hasn't used PEDs, but I am 100% certain that his thryoid condition isn't linked to him using PEDs" or something.

I guess sure, if you were fooled by Rookie, sure, I figure one or two would say 0%.

But ten?

[TransMonk]

Never let it be said that Mets fans don't have heart.