Church for Francouer

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Wilco will love me, baby

[TransMonk]

Have you seen my hair? Not enough to let down, that's for sure.[/quote:3sqgt1qq]

I always picture you looking like Warren Zevon.

[Centerfield]

Jesus, don't stop posting because of me. I don't want that on my head.

Sorry for being a prick. Nothing personal intended.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Have you seen my hair? Not enough to let down, that's for sure.[/quote:2r6ozvkx]

I always picture you looking like Warren Zevon.[/quote:2r6ozvkx]

I've got Edgar Winter in mind. Or Ed Begley in a blond wig.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Jesus, don't stop posting because of me. I don't want that on my head.

Sorry for being a prick. Nothing personal intended.[/quote:2wtqpvdj]

Not you, CF, it's all about me getting my own shorts in a knot for no good reason.

And as for my appearance, it's more Warren Buffett then Warren Zevon.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

As long as its not Jimmy Buffet.

[Guest cooby]

That said, I have wasted too much of my time and yours on what offends me. I am fairly certain that no one here gives a damn about what offends you, me or anyone else, nor should they. Well, maybe Cooby does, because she's that kind of person, but even that's a stretch.

.[/quote:39g4mmbl]


That's right, buddy!

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

As a result of our pilgrimage to the baseball mecca in Flushing, I was unaware of the outfielder swap between the Mets and the Braves. I'm sitting in Stout NYC with my friend enjoying a few cold beers while watching the Angels put the finishing touches on their come from behind thrashing of the evil ones. Our waitress turns on the Mets game just in time to see Pagan's nice running catch in deep center field to end the Reds half of the first inning.

The Mets come to bat and instantly get a rally brewing as Pagan singles, Castillo walks, and Wright singles to right. Bases loaded with no outs and I'm ready for Sheffield to bust one and get the scoring started. Sheffield pops up for the first out.

Then I see Francoeur stepping into the batters box.

RD "When the hell did this happen?"

Friend "Don't ask me."

RD "I just hope they didn't trade Church to get him."

Francoeur hits a fisted flare down the right field line to plate Pagan and Castillo. I cheer and some of the sting is removed from the sudden realization that the Mets had indeed swapped right fielders with the Braves.


Obviously, my initial reaction to the news of the trade wasn't very positive. However, after some thought and consideration, I'm rather neutral to the deal now. I like Church and feel he wasn't given a fair shot by Manuel this season. Both Church and Francoeur are good defensive right fielders. Both historically can be expected to hit .265 to .275. Francoeur provides more power, but with more strike outs and a lower OBP due to his free swinging approach at the plate. Ultimately, the Mets got younger by 5 years which could be a good thing. Time will tell I guess.

[Vic Sage]

I dislike hackers with low OB% and lower BB IQs. This is a lateral move (at best) with Omar net letting stupid facts getting in the way of his "scout" sensibility that loves "tools" despite demonstrated lack of production.

However, the big ole hard-headed French donkey is younger and, if he works hard and becomes coachable, he has the potential to one day be...

... older.

[Guest Edgy DC]

	Offense																								CF			RF
Player	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Inn	UZR*	A	Inn	UZR*	A
Francoeur	14	60	55	4	18	2	0	3	16	0	1	1	6	.327	.350	.527	.877	129	29	0	2	0	2	1	-	-	-	120	-0.7	2
Church	13	41	33	7	7	0	0	1	4	0	0	8	6	.212	.366	.303	.669	81	10	1	0	0	0	0	3	0.4	0	90	2.1	1

* Ultimate Zone Rating, as per www.fangraphs.com.

[Valadius]

Wow. That's quite a contrast.

[metirish]

Only 6 SO's , that's a surprise I suppose, One walk isn't .

Francouer credits working with Wright , Sheff and Hojo

"The coolest thing here is that with David and Sheffield I have a couple righthanded guys I can talk to about hitting. In Atlanta it was lefthanders I talked to, but this has helped," said Francoeur. "To have some guys that go through what I go through with sinkers and sliders and to able to pick their brains, it's been awesome." Wright and (hitting coach Howard) Johnson told Francoeur he needed to get his front foot planted quicker, and Sheffield showed Francoeur how to change his grip to use his top hand more. "For a big, strong guy he's already a talented player, he just wasn't in control of his bat," Sheffield said. "When you can tap into something you never tapped into then you can see the talent really comes through."

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Only 6 SO's , that's a surprise I suppose, One walk isn't .

Francouer credits working with Wright , Sheff and Hojo

"The coolest thing here is that with David and Sheffield I have a couple righthanded guys I can talk to about hitting. In Atlanta it was lefthanders I talked to, but this has helped," said Francoeur. "To have some guys that go through what I go through with sinkers and sliders and to able to pick their brains, it's been awesome." Wright and (hitting coach Howard) Johnson told Francoeur he needed to get his front foot planted quicker, and Sheffield showed Francoeur how to change his grip to use his top hand more. "For a big, strong guy he's already a talented player, he just wasn't in control of his bat," Sheffield said. "When you can tap into something you never tapped into then you can see the talent really comes through."

[Gwreck]

I'm not finding a definition for that URF. Is that negative number good or bad?

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's because I had a meeting to get to as I finished the chart, and put the wrong term in there. What I meant was...

UZR (ultimate zone rating):

The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Not for nothing but I hope Francoeur's hand is OK. He's done good.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm not finding a definition for that URF. Is that negative number good or bad?[/quote:1n33xom5]

And the negative number is bad-- it's adjusted to be sort of a "runs above average" (for the position) figure. That Church is at 2.1-- a significant number over even a half-season-- indicates that he's done a bunch already, run-savings-wise.

Not for nothing but I hope Francoeur's hand is OK. He's done good.[/quote:1n33xom5]

Agreed-- I'm rooting for him. But if he's not... happy Met Mitzvah!

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Don't think anyone was expecting Francoeur to be this awful in the field. That might not just be a product of small sample size, though. His UZR for the last five years:

2005: 13.2
2006: 8.3
2007: 17.1
2008: -4.7
2009: 1.0 (on the Mets: -0.7)

That's pretty erratic. It'll take more time to see if he's actually lost ability or not. As for his hitting, it sure looks fluky to me. His 17.6 LD% might increase a little, but that .326 BABIP will regress. The .200 ISO, his highest since his rookie year (and his highest BY FAR since his second year) has been aided by a 12.5% HR/FB ratio, his highest since his first two years. I'd sell if anyone's buying.

Funny thing is, as hot as Francoeur's been with the bat, Church has been such a stud in the field (and our guy such a horrorshow) that he's still been more valuable since the trade (although just barely: 0.2 WAR for Francoeur, 0.3 for Church).

[Frayed Knot]

Not for nothing but I hope Francoeur's hand is OK. He's done good.[/quote:3ivcaypb]

I don't understand how those HBPs on the hand don't break at least one bone like every single time.



The negative UZR (from such a small sample size) was probably influenced by that drop last week.
IMO those stats are barely meaningful in large doses and totally ignorable in small.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Churchie's RF UZR (includes range, errata, and assists) projects over 150 games to 26.9 runs saved over average in right, and in center, 64.2 runs.

Obviously that's a small sample size (3 innings in center), but nothing to sneeze at no matter how much stock you place in such numbers. Interestingly, his numbers were much more sober as a Met, probably due in part to a larger sample size.

Francoeur projects to puking up 12.7 runs more than average defensively over 150 games. That's not good. But his Braves numbers were in the positive range, and typically have been.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Lookie and see that Church has evened things up --- thanks largely to his wacky walk rate. Francoeur still has an edge in value right now due his greater playing time, but that's not the sort of edge that will allow the Mets to claim trade victory.

Church has come back down a little bit with his fielding supremacy, but so too has Francoeur slipped back defensively.

	Offense																								CF			RF
Player	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Inn	UZR	A	Inn	UZR	A
Francoeur	22	93	85	7	24	3	0	4	19	0	1	2	8	.282	.312	.459	.771	101	39	0	3	0	3	1	-	-	-	193	-1.3	2
Church	15	49	39	9	10	0	0	1	4	0	0	10	6	.256	.408	.333	.741	101	13	1	0	0	0	1	3	0.4	0	107	2.1	2

[Benjamin Grimm]

Francoeur has hit four homers? He may end leading the team!

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Their WAR since the trade:

Church: 0.4
Francoeur: 0.0

So, Francoeur's been a replacement player and Church has been a decent, but not great player. We haven't really learned much from this trade that we didn't know before, and I don't think we'll see much change (except, of course, that I still think replacement-level production is way too much to expect from Frenchy over the long term).

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't get how a guy with a 101 OPS+ fails to be even a fraction above a replacement player. My understanding of a replacement player is the typical guy you can pull off the waiver wire. And that's not a guy with a 101 OPS+, defense accepted.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Problem is, he's playing a premium offensive position (and playing it poorly on the defensive side). If he were a centerfielder, even a kinda bad one, it'd be a much different story.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That makes some sense. I still don't see rightfielders hitting at league average floating around the waiver wire, but yeah, they come cheaper than similar-hitting thirdbasemen.

[nymr83]

they're not floating around in the middle of the season, but there were plenty of guys available in the offseason that would have given the mets better production in a corner outfield slot, and very little excuse not to sign one (particularly with the cheap deals Abreu and Ibanez got).

with all the injuries it probably wouldnt have mattered anyway, but omar can be blamed for not getting one of those guys, Abreu only got a single year at 5 million. wow.

[Guest Kong76]

I clearly remember the clamoring for Abreu to be signed for one year here at
6, 7, even 8 million and Omar ignored us.

[Frayed Knot]

Very few thought the deal for Ibanez was "cheap" at the time.
It's also a bit tough to bust on Omar for signing too many older players and then turn around and blame him for NOT signing a 37 y/o to a 3-year deal.

[Guest Kong76]

I was joking about Abreu, was there clamoring?